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2024 Week 3 · Thu, Sep 19, 2024 · MetLife Stadium

New England Patriots

3

New York JetsWinner

24

NYJ -6.5 ✓U 39 ✓

New York Jets 24–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:34, NE +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYJ ↑NE ↓
Q1 · 12:34NE 0 — NYJ 0NYJ ball · 1st & 10NYJ 75%

(12:34) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 18-M.Williams (31-J.Jones). PENALTY on NYJ-78-M.Moses, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 43 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 12:34NE +5% win prob(12:34) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 18-M.Williams (31-J.Jones). PENALTY on NYJ-78-M.Moses, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 43 - No Play.
  2. Q1 · 7:09NYJ +4% win prob(7:09) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 89-J.Ruckert to NE 46 for 11 yards (31-J.Jones; 48-J.Tavai).
  3. Q1 · 6:22NYJ +3% win prob(6:22) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 20-B.Hall to NE 46 for no gain (48-J.Tavai). PENALTY on NE-48-J.Tavai, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 46.
  4. Q2 · 0:11NE +3% win prob(:11) 9-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 4:26NYJ Touchdown

    (4:26) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 10-A.Lazard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 0 — NYJ 7
  2. Q2 · 8:33NYJ Touchdown

    (8:33) 74-O.Fashanu reported in as eligible. 20-B.Hall up the middle to NE 1 for no gain (33-A.Jennings). New York Jets challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 74-O.Fashanu reported in as eligible. 20-B.Hall up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 0 — NYJ 14
  3. Q2 · 4:00NE Field goal

    (4:00) 13-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

    Score after this play: NE 3 — NYJ 14
  4. Q3 · 6:24NYJ Touchdown

    (6:24) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 5-G.Wilson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 3 — NYJ 21
  5. Q4 · 10:19NYJ Field goal

    (10:19) 9-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: NE 3 — NYJ 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPatriotsJets
Offensive plays4870
Total yards139400 (edge)
Yards per play2.95.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.400.26 (edge)
Success rate33%57% (edge)
Dropback rate73%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.440.49 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.30-0.06 (edge)
Third downs2/1110/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)38 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1025 (edge)
Sacks taken72 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.40.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Aaron RodgersQB

27/35, 281 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

18.2 expected points added · +12.7% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Jacoby BrissettQB

12/18, 98 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-11.0 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Braelon AllenRB

11 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

16 att, 54 yds, 1 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Tyler ConklinTE

5/6 for 93 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 10.1 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Demario DouglasWR

7/9 for 69 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NYJNYJ 309374:54Punt
2NENE 20411:32Punt
3NYJNYJ 279584:13Touchdown +7
4NENE 308113:02Punt
5NYJNYJ 914987:47Touchdown +7
6NENE 249164:36Field goal +3
7NYJNYJ 2413593:49Missed field goal
8NENE 352120:07End of half
9NENE 30561:32Punt
10NYJNYJ 3412667:10Touchdown +7
11NENE 307352:35Punt
12NYJNYJ 129394:32Punt
13NENE 31140:09Fumble
14NYJNE 377283:46Field goal +3
15NENE 30781:59Punt
16NYJNYJ 97153:53Punt
17NENE 4216464:24End of game

5 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 98 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jacoby Brissett12/1898005-11.0
Drake Maye4/822002-5.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Antonio Gibson5295.802.4
Rhamondre Stevenson6233.80-7.0
Drake Maye2126.001.1
Demario Douglas199.000.8
Jamycal Hasty155.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Demario Douglas7969038%1.7
Austin Hooper1419017%-0.5
Ja'Lynn Polk221308%0.3
Hunter Henry239013%0.3
Antonio Gibson338013%-1.2
Kayshon Boutte12208%0.2
Tyquan Thornton01004%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Raekwon McMillan640.000
Jahlani Tavai640.000
Anfernee Jennings420.000
Keion White510.000
Jonathan Jones420.001
Joshua Uche311.000
Jabrill Peppers220.000
Daniel Ekuale220.000
Kyle Dugger300.000
Marcus Jones300.000

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers27/3528120218.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Braelon Allen11555.000.6
Breece Hall16543.41-1.3
Aaron Rodgers3186.001.4
Isaiah Davis362.00-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyler Conklin5693018%10.1
Allen Lazard334819%5.4
Mike Williams3434012%1.6
Garrett Wilson5933126%1.0
Breece Hall4529015%0.8
Xavier Gipson221606%0.6
Jeremy Ruckert221506%1.3
Braelon Allen331309%0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quincy Williams530.000
Chuck Clark431.000
Jamien Sherwood410.000
Ahmad Gardner400.000
Tony Adams120.001
Will McDonald122.000
D.J. Reed200.000
Quinnen Williams201.000
Chazz Surratt110.000
Leonard Taylor020.500

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NYJ -6.5
Closing total
39
NE moneyline
+230
NYJ moneyline
-285

Jets closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 39; the game landed 27 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
75°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
NE 4 days · NYJ 4 days
Coaches
Jerod Mayo vs Robert Saleh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.