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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 3 · Thu, Sep 19, 2024 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 3
It turned at Q1 12:34, 1st and 10, on Aaron Rodgers — 4.5 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
New York Jets 24–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:34, Patriots +4.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:34 · 1st and 10
Aaron Rodgers
Patriots
(12:34) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 18-M.Williams (31-J.Jones). PENALTY on NYJ-78-M.Moses, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 43 - No Play.
4.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Jets won this one — 10 of 15 on third down, against Patriots at 2 of 11 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jets won this one — +0.26 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.40 expected points per snap.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jets won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jets won this one — +0.49 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.44 expected points per dropback.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(12:34) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 18-M.Williams (31-J.Jones). PENALTY on NYJ-78-M.Moses, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 43 - No Play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Allen Lazard's 10-yard touchdown catch with 4:26 left in the 1st put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Allen Lazard10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron RodgersLead never changed again+70–75 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryJets
Jets ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 48 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Jets’s 70 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 1, Jets 4.
Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.40.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's sack or hit rate, 34.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · +2.4σ from their own normal
NYJ's blitz rate sent turned over: 14.3% in week 2 against 37.1% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 40.0% in week 2 against 64.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-3.8 ptsright on their number · −0.7 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 48 snaps
Jets-0.0 ptsright on their number · −2.1 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 85%
Tendencies room →Patriots64.7%inside their normal wobble · +8.4 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 34 early downs
Jets49.1%leaned — ran early · −10.8 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 44%
Tendencies room →Patriots17.1%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Jets25.0%right on their number · +0.6 vs their 24.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -54% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Patriots—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.2%.
Jets—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 55.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 69%
Tendencies room →Patriots37.5%right on their number · +2.3 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±13.1 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Jets37.1%inside their normal wobble · +8.8 vs their 28.4%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 37%
Tendencies room →Patriots10.0%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Jets34.3%off script — got home · +20.7 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+2.38× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NYJ's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 34.3%, 20.7 points above their season mean of 13.6% and 2.4 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
27/35, 281 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
18.2 expected points added · +12.7% completion over expected
Passing · NE
12/18, 98 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-11.0 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Allen Lazard banked 8.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 21.0 | −0.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/35, 281 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 18 yd |
| Breece HallRB · Committee Back | 18.3 | −0.8 | 71% | 83% | 15% | 6% | 16 car, 54 yd, 1 TD · 4/5, 29 yd |
| Demario DouglasWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.8 | +3.0 | 83% | 86% | 38% | 46% | 1 car, 9 yd · 7/9, 69 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.3 | +1.1 | 92% | 98% | 18% | 30% | 5/6, 93 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.3 | −2.7 | 88% | 93% | 26% | 39% | 5/9, 33 yd, 1 TD |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.8 | +8.8 | 84% | 85% | 9% | 5% | 3/3, 48 yd, 1 TD |
| Braelon AllenRB · Committee Back | 9.8 | −0.4 | 32% | 25% | 9% | 0% | 11 car, 55 yd · 3/3, 13 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Committee Back | 6.7 | +0.1 | 37% | 31% | 13% | 0% | 5 car, 29 yd · 3/3, 8 yd |
| Mike WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | −1.4 | 45% | 55% | 12% | 18% | 3/4, 34 yd |
| Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB | 3.9 | −0.9 | 69% | — | 0% | — | 12/18, 98 yd |
| Xavier GipsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +0.5 | 21% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 2/2, 16 yd |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.5 | 45% | 28% | 6% | 2% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Ja'Lynn PolkWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.5 | 50% | 49% | 8% | 11% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −2.9 | 58% | 49% | 17% | 24% | 1/4, 19 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −0.8 | 63% | 69% | 13% | 4% | 2/3, 9 yd |
| Drake MayeQB | 2.1 | −1.1 | 31% | — | 0% | — | 4/8, 22 yd · 2 car, 12 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.6 | 35% | 34% | 8% | 4% | 1/2, 2 yd |
| Isaiah DavisRB | 0.6 | −1.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jamycal HastyRB | 0.5 | −0.1 | 17% | 23% | 0% | — | 1 car, 5 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 0.3 | −2.2 | 46% | 46% | 0% | — | 6 car, 23 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.2 | 33% | 34% | 4% | 19% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Irvin CharlesWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:09) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 11-T.Thornton. PENALTY on NYJ-4-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at NE 41 - No Play.
Q2 6:09 · Patriots · 3rd & 9 at NE 41 · gained nothing · +3.29 EP · +7.5% win probability
147 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 91 yards from the NYJ 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots0
Jets6Patriots0Jets7Patriots0Jets13Patriots0Jets14Patriots3Jets14Patriots3Jets20Patriots3Jets21Patriots3Jets24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 12/18 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 5 | −11.0 |
| Drake Maye | 4/8 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −5.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 | −7.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Douglas | 7 | 9 | 69 | 0 | 38% | +1.7 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raekwon McMillan | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/35 | 281 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +18.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_03_NE_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jets closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 39; the game landed 27 — under by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Drake Maye | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Demario Douglas | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| −0.5 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 8% | +0.3 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 13% | +0.3 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 13% | −1.2 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8% | +0.2 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Keion White | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joshua Uche | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Ekuale | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Breece Hall | 16 | 54 | 3.4 | 1 | −1.3 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Isaiah Davis | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Conklin | 5 | 6 | 93 | 0 | 18% | +10.1 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 3 | 48 | 1 | 9% | +5.4 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 12% | +1.6 |
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 9 | 33 | 1 | 26% | +1.0 |
| Breece Hall | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 15% | +0.8 |
| Xavier Gipson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | +0.6 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6% | +1.3 |
| Braelon Allen | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 9% | +0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Williams | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Gardner | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Adams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Will McDonald | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chazz Surratt | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Taylor | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
