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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
⏸live · 12s tick · as of 12:20 PM ET · 1 h ago · 7 live · 5 to play · 2 final
New York Giants 21, Browns 15 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 7:47, 1st and 10 — 21.4 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
U 38 ✓
Browns closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Giants 21–15. Biggest swing: Q4 7:47, Giants +21.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:47 · 1st and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Giants
(7:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYG 48, RECOVERED by NYG-51-A.Ojulari at NYG 46.
21.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Deshaun WatsonGiantsQ2 0:38(:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 31 for -9 yards (0-B.Burns). FUMBLES (0-B.Burns) [0-B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-94-E.Chatman at CLE 30.
15.1pts
Devin SingletaryBrownsQ3 13:01(13:01) 26-D.Singletary left guard to NYG 41 for 2 yards (93-S.Harris). FUMBLES (93-S.Harris), RECOVERED by CLE-33-R.Hickman at NYG 45.
10.4pts
What separated them
Every snap
Giants won this one — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.38 expected points per snap.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.21 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.34 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Giants won this one — -0.19 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.50 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Giants won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Giants172 of 182 plays carry both curves
(7:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYG 48, RECOVERED by NYG-51-A.Ojulari at NYG 46.
Swing −21.4 for BrownsExpected points −5.41 for BrownsThe model had Giants 8 points higher than the market did.play 156
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:47NYG +21% win prob(7:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYG 48, RECOVERED by NYG-51-A.Ojulari at NYG 46.
2nd · 0:38NYG +15% win prob(:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 31 for -9 yards (0-B.Burns). FUMBLES (0-B.Burns) [0-B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-94-E.Chatman at CLE 30.
3rd · 13:01NYG +10% win prob(13:01) 26-D.Singletary left guard to NYG 41 for 2 yards (93-S.Harris). FUMBLES (93-S.Harris), RECOVERED by CLE-33-R.Hickman at NYG 45.
2nd · 1:49CLE +10% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 1-M.Nabers for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-M.Garrett].
4th · 4:03NYG +9% win prob(4:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 29 for 0 yards (97-D.Lawrence).
4th · 5:27NYG +9% win prob(5:27) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Malik Nabers's 3-yard touchdown catch with 1:49 left in the 2nd put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Giants ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Giants: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.38Browns: −0.38 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Giants: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.34Browns: −0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Giants: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.50Browns: −0.50 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 66 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Browns’s 63 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Giants 4, Browns 2.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CLE's early-down pass rate turned over: 56.3% in week 2 against 75.6% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
leaned — got home · +14.3 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.87× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Browns23.1%
inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteNYG's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 29.2%, 14.3 points above their season mean of 14.9% and 1.9 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
74Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%72 snaps
76Jon RunyanG · Every snap100%72 snaps
72Jermaine EluemunorT · Every snap100%72 snaps
78Andrew ThomasT · Every snap100%72 snaps
61John Michael SchmitzC · Every snap100%72 snaps
8Daniel JonesQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
1Malik NabersWR · Full-time85%61 snaps
86Darius SlaytonWR · Full-time82%59 snaps
84Theo JohnsonTE · Full-time81%58 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Heavy rotation68%49 snaps
17Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation60%43 snaps
85Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational38%27 snaps
82Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational36%26 snaps
29Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · Rotational31%22 snaps
13Jalin HyattWR · Situational14%10 snaps
20Eric GrayRB · Situational4%3 snaps
89Jakob JohnsonFB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Tre Hawkins IIICBNick McCloudCBAnthony Johnson Jr.FSJake KubasGBenton WhitleyOLBCarlos BashamOLBTommy DeVitoQB
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson FUMBLES−17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYG 48, RECOVERED by NYG-51-A.Ojulari at NYG 46.
Q4 7:47 · Browns · 1st & 10 at NYG 44 · gained nothing · -5.41 EP · −17.2% win probability
171 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 93 yards from the NYG 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.19
Success rate
42%
Yards
559
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.4972%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.3074%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.2939%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.5633%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Fumble lost1 play
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Giants0Browns6
Giants0Browns7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Giants 30
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Browns 37
Giants6Browns7
Giants7Browns7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Giants 19 to the Browns 1
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 33
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Giants 43
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 18 to the Giants 49
Giants13Browns7
Giants14Browns7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Giants 7 to the Browns 3
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 40
Giants20Browns7
Giants21Browns7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Giants 18 to the Giants 39
No good7 plays, from the Giants 45 to the Giants 30
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 43 to the Browns 44
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 19 to the Browns 48
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 5 to the Giants 28
The period ended5 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Giants 45
4th quarter50 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Giants 10
Giants21Browns13
Giants21Browns15
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 49 to the Giants 6
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 33
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxFive defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Giants 44
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 46 to the Browns 40
The period ended5 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 29
No good6 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Browns 38 to the Browns 44
The period ended5 plays, from the Browns 44 to the Browns 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Giantscategory by categoryBrowns
Giants0
Browns6
