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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
Philadelphia Eagles 15 at New Orleans Saints 12. Final.
Saints -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 3
Philadelphia Eagles 15, Saints 12 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:16, 3rd and 16, on Dallas Goedert — 40.6 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:16 · 3rd and 16
Dallas Goedert
Eagles
(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at NO 4 for 61 yards (29-P.Adebo).
U 49 ✓
Dome
Saints closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Philadelphia Eagles 15–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:16, Eagles +40.6% win probability on one snap.
40.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Saquon BarkleyEaglesQ4 13:27(13:27) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left guard for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
26.7pts
Reed BlankenshipEaglesQ4 0:55(:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 32-R.Blankenship [55-B.Graham] at PHI 41. 32-R.Blankenship to PHI 41 for no gain (12-C.Olave). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
28.6pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.29 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.43 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Saints at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.20 expected points per snap.
(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at NO 4 for 61 yards (29-P.Adebo).
Swing −40.6 for SaintsExpected points −5.44 for SaintsModel and market agree here.play 151
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:16NO +41% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at NO 4 for 61 yards (29-P.Adebo).
4th · 0:55PHI +29% win prob(:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 32-R.Blankenship [55-B.Graham] at PHI 41. 32-R.Blankenship to PHI 41 for no gain (12-C.Olave). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 13:27NO +27% win prob(13:27) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left guard for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:55NO +16% win prob(4:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 12-C.Olave to PHI 25 for 29 yards (22-K.Ringo).
4th · 11:44NO +16% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 41-A.Kamara to PHI 24 for 27 yards (53-Z.Baun).
4th · 6:47PHI +15% win prob(6:47) 4-J.Elliott 60 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Saquon Barkley's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 1:05 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:53Blake Grupe·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder M.Hayball · snap Z.Wood+30–3
4th1:05Saquon Barkley·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+815–12
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categorySaints
Eagles5–2Saints
466Total yards220
7.2Yards per play4.0
43%Success rate29%
46%Third-down rate46%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
10Explosive plays3
20First downs13
4Sacks taken1
2Turnovers1
The read
Eagles ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Eagles: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.20Saints: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.08Eagles: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.02Saints: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.29Eagles: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.43Saints: −0.43 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 65 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Saints’s 55 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Saints 4.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, sat 53.9 points above their season number of 46.1% — they went for it by 2.2 times their own 24.7-point weekly swing.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · +0.9 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Saints15.6%
right on their number · +3.5 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NotePHI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 53.9 points above their season mean of 46.1% and 2.2 times their own 24.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%72 snaps
51Cam JurgensG · Every snap100%72 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Every snap100%72 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
83Jahan DotsonWR · Full-time87%63 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Full-time86%62 snaps
56Tyler SteenG · Full-time80%58 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Full-time80%58 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Heavy rotation76%55 snaps
74Fred JohnsonT · Heavy rotation75%54 snaps
80Parris CampbellWR · Heavy rotation50%36 snaps
81Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational37%27 snaps
89Johnny WilsonWR · Rotational33%24 snaps
65Lane JohnsonT · Rotational25%18 snaps
14Kenneth GainwellRB · Situational19%14 snaps
77Mekhi BectonT · Situational19%14 snaps
87Jack StollTE · Situational18%13 snaps
18Britain CoveyWR · Situational10%7 snaps
32Reed BlankenshipSS · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Eli RicksCBByron YoungDTTrevor KeeganGDevin WhiteILBTanner McKeeQBDarian KinnardTA.J. BrownWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass+40% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at NO 4 for 61 yards (29-P.Adebo).
Q4 1:16 · Eagles · 3rd & 16 at PHI 35 · gained 61 · +5.44 EP · +39.7% win probability
149 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 82 yards from the PHI 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
35%
Yards
681
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.0071%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.0867%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17-0.1629%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.2031%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.0117%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Eagles0Saints3
Field goal18 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Eagles 8
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Saints 13
2nd quarter44 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 19 to the Saints 27
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Eagles 21 to the Saints 40
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 47 to the Eagles 40
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
The period ended19 plays, from the Eagles 7 to the Saints 15
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Saints 34
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Eagles 41
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Saints 44
The period ended4 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Eagles 18
4th quarter53 plays
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Turnover on downs1 play
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Eagles6Saints3
Eagles7Saints3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Eagles 18 to the Eagles 35
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Eagles7Saints6
Field goal10 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Eagles 20
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
No good8 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Saints 41
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Eagles7Saints12
Touchdown11 plays, from midfield to the Eagles 12
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Eagles13Saints12
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Eagles15Saints12
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 31 to the Saints 4
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 36
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -2.5
Closing total
49
Eagles moneyline
+120
Saints moneyline
-142
Saints closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49; the game landed 27 — under by 22.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Eagles 6 days · Saints 7 days
Coaches
Nick Sirianni vs Dennis Allen
2nd · 7:29PHI +15% win prob(7:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at NO 46 for -6 yards (96-C.Granderson). FUMBLES (96-C.Granderson) [96-C.Granderson], RECOVERED by NO-6-W.Gay at NO 43. 6-W.Gay to NO 47 for 4 yards (1-J.Hurts).
4th · 15:00PHI +12% win prob(15:00) 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara left tackle to PHI 18 for no gain (53-Z.Baun).
