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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 3
It turned at Q4 1:16, 3rd and 16, on Dallas Goedert — 40.6 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 15–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:16, Eagles +40.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:16 · 3rd and 16
Dallas Goedert
Eagles
(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at NO 4 for 61 yards (29-P.Adebo).
40.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.29 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.43 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Saints at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.20 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 5 points apart.
(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at NO 4 for 61 yards (29-P.Adebo).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Saquon Barkley's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 1:05 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Saquon Barkley4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+815–125 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categorySaints
Eagles ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 65 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Saints’s 55 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Saints 4.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, sat 53.9 points above their season number of 46.1% — they went for it by 2.2 times their own 24.7-point weekly swing.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.7 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles1.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +10.9 vs their -9.0 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.41× that swing) · 64 snaps
Saints-12.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.6 vs their -5.1 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 11% to 92%
Tendencies room →Eagles66.7%leaned — passed early · +22.8 vs their 43.8%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+1.85× that swing) · 48 early downs
Saints47.5%inside their normal wobble · −8.5 vs their 56.0%, and they swing ±13.9 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15% to 61%
Tendencies room →Eagles20.0%right on their number · −3.9 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Saints25.0%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 23.0%, and they swing ±14.7 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 111%
Fourth Down room →Eagles100.0%off script — went for it · +53.9 vs their 46.1%, and they swing ±24.7 week to week (+2.19× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Saints33.3%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±28.3 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 49%
Tendencies room →Eagles14.3%inside their normal wobble · −9.5 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Saints26.7%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 24.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 33%
Tendencies room →Eagles14.3%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Saints15.6%right on their number · +3.5 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 53.9 points above their season mean of 46.1% and 2.2 times their own 24.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
29/38, 311 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-5.0 expected points added · +9.9% completion over expected
Passing · NO
14/25, 142 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
0.6 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected
Receiving · PHI
10/11 for 170 yds, 0 TD
31% of team targets · 11.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Saquon Barkley banked 17.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 33.6 | +17.6 | 80% | 80% | 11% | 0% | 17 car, 147 yd, 2 TD · 4/4, 9 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Alpha Receiver | 27.0 | +9.9 | 86% | 93% | 31% | 27% | 10/11, 170 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.6 | +8.5 | 80% | 93% | 26% | 41% | 6/6, 86 yd, 1 TD |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.7 | −3.0 | 86% | 79% | 13% | 13% | 26 car, 87 yd · 3/3, 40 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.9 | −4.3 | 76% | 80% | 28% | 49% | 7/10, 79 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 10.9 | −6.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/38, 311 yd, 1 INT · 8 car, 25 yd |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 8.0 | −4.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/25, 142 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 3 yd |
| Parris CampbellWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.4 | 50% | 60% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 3.2 | −0.8 | 19% | 20% | 8% | 4% | 2/3, 12 yd |
| Mason TiptonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −1.4 | 32% | 46% | 13% | 6% | 2/3, 11 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −1.2 | 87% | 89% | 8% | 12% | 2/3, 8 yd |
| Britain CoveyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.8 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Johnny WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.2 | 33% | 31% | 6% | 8% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | 0.0 | 45% | 29% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −1.9 | 71% | 54% | 9% | 0% | 1/2, 2 yd |
| Jamaal WilliamsRB · Receiving Back | 0.9 | −4.5 | 18% | 29% | 13% | 0% | 1 car, -1 yd · 1/3, 0 yd |
| Jordan MimsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Featured Receiver | 0.0 | −10.7 | 75% | 89% | 22% | 58% | 0/5, 0 yd |
| Will ShipleyRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jack StollTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 18% | 13% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 37% | 22% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at NO 4 for 61 yards (29-P.Adebo).
Q4 1:16 · Eagles · 3rd & 16 at PHI 35 · gained 61 · +5.44 EP · +39.7% win probability
149 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 82 yards from the PHI 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Eagles0
Saints3How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Eagles6Saints3Eagles7Saints3How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Eagles7Saints6How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Eagles7Saints12How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Eagles13Saints12How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Eagles15Saints12How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 29/38 | 311 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −5.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 17 | 147 | 8.6 | 2 | +7.4 |
| Jalen Hurts | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 10 | 11 | 170 | 0 | 31% | +11.6 |
| DeVonta Smith | 7 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Baun | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nakobe Dean | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chauncey Gardner-Johnson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 14/25 | 142 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_03_PHI_NO
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49; the game landed 27 — under by 22.0.
Conditions and crew
| 28% |
| +0.4 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | −0.2 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 8% | −1.8 |
| Britain Covey | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +1.3 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 11% | −1.6 |
| Johnny Wilson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | +1.4 |
| Jahan Dotson | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 8% | −2.8 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Jordan Davis | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Carter | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Nolan Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Graham | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Slay | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 26 | 87 | 3.3 | 0 | −10.9 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 6 | 6 | 86 | 1 | 26% | +11.6 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 13% | +2.7 |
| Mason Tipton | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 13% | −1.0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9% | −1.3 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22% | −4.8 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13% | −2.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulson Adebo | 10 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Demario Davis | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Will Harris | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Carl Granderson | 4 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Willie Gay | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Bresee | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
