2024 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

New Orleans Saints

NO -2.5 upsetU 49 ✓DomeSaints closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Philadelphia Eagles 15–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:16, NO +41% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:16PHI 7 — NO 12PHI ball · 3rd & 16NO 85%

(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at NO 4 for 61 yards (29-P.Adebo).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:16NO +41% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at NO 4 for 61 yards (29-P.Adebo).
Q4 · 0:55PHI +29% win prob(:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 32-R.Blankenship [55-B.Graham] at PHI 41. 32-R.Blankenship to PHI 41 for no gain (12-C.Olave). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 · 13:27NO +27% win prob(13:27) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left guard for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 4:55NO +16% win prob(4:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 12-C.Olave to PHI 25 for 29 yards (22-K.Ringo).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:53NO Field goal
(6:53) 19-B.Grupe 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: PHI 0 — NO 3
Q4 · 13:27PHI Touchdown
(13:27) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left guard for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 7 — NO 3
Q4 · 9:52NO Field goal
(9:52) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: PHI 7 — NO 6
Q4 · 2:10NO Touchdown
(2:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 12-C.Olave for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: PHI 7 — NO 12
Q4 · 1:05PHI Touchdown
(1:05) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: PHI 15 — NO 12

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Saints
Offensive plays	65	55
Total yards	466 (edge)	220
Yards per play	7.2 (edge)	4.0
Expected points added / play	0.03 (edge)	-0.20
Success rate	43% (edge)	29%
Dropback rate	69%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	0.02 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.29 (edge)	-0.43
Third downs	6/13	6/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

29/38, 311 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-5.0 expected points added · +9.9% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

14/25, 142 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.6 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Saquon BarkleyRB

17 att, 147 yds, 2 TD

7.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

26 att, 87 yds, 0 TD

-10.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

Dallas GoedertTE

10/11 for 170 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 11.6 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

6/6 for 86 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 11.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 30	16	54	8:09	Field goal +3
2	PHI	PHI 30	5	-9	2:18	Punt
3	NO	NO 36	4	-3	1:42	Punt
4	PHI	PHI 23	5	66	3:02	Interception
5	NO	NO 19	4	8	0:55	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 21	10	41	6:33	Fumble
7	NO	NO 47	7	13	3:26	Punt
8	PHI	PHI 7	15	93	3:45	Turnover on downs
9	NO	NO 15	1	0	0:10	End of half
10	PHI	PHI 23	11	47	6:17	Turnover on downs
11	NO	NO 40	7	18	3:33	Punt
12	PHI	PHI 15	7	46	3:41	Punt
13	NO	PHI 27	4	9	1:31	Turnover on downs
14	PHI	PHI 18	5	82	1:41	Touchdown +7
15	NO	NO 30	9	50	3:28	Field goal +3
16	PHI	PHI 24	8	34	3:08	Missed field goal
17	NO	50	10	65	4:38	Touchdown +6
18	PHI	PHI 31	7	66	1:02	Touchdown +8
19	NO	NO 30	3	6	0:13	Interception
20	PHI	PHI 41	3	0	0:48	End of game

5 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 93 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	29/38	311	0	1	4	-5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Saquon Barkley	17	147	8.6	2	7.4
Jalen Hurts	8	25	3.1	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Dallas Goedert	10	11	170	31%	11.6
DeVonta Smith	7	10	79	28%	0.4
Parris Campbell	2	2	13	6%	-0.2
Kenneth Gainwell	2	3	12	8%	-1.8
Britain Covey	1	1	11	3%	1.3
Saquon Barkley	4	4	9	11%	-1.6
Johnny Wilson	1	2	9	6%	1.4
Jahan Dotson	2	3	8	8%	-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zack Baun	7	4	0.0	0
Nakobe Dean	3	5	0.0	0
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	4	3	0.0	1
Jordan Davis	2	2	1.0	0
Jalen Carter	3	1	0.0	2
Quinyon Mitchell	3	1	0.0	2
Nolan Smith	2	1	0.0	0
Brandon Graham	1	1	0.0	0
Josh Sweat	1	1	0.0	0
Darius Slay	1	1	0.0	1

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	14/25	142	1	1	1	0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	26	87	3.3	-10.9
Derek Carr	2	3	1.5	-0.1
Jamaal Williams	1	-1	-1.0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Olave	6	6	86	1	26%	11.6
Alvin Kamara	3	3	40	0	13%	2.7
Mason Tipton	2	3	11	0	13%	-1.0
Cedrick Wilson	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.3
Foster Moreau	1	2	2	0	9%	-1.3
Rashid Shaheed	0	5	0	0	22%	-4.8
Jamaal Williams	1	3	0	0	13%	-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Paulson Adebo	10	0	0.0	0	1
Demario Davis	4	2	0.0	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	6	0	0.0	1	1
Will Harris	5	0	0.0	0	0
Alontae Taylor	2	3	0.5	0	1
Carl Granderson	4	1	1.5	0	0
Pete Werner	2	2	0.0	0	0
Willie Gay	3	0	0.0	0	0
Nathan Shepherd	2	1	0.0	0	0
Bryan Bresee	2	0	2.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -2.5
Closing total: 49
PHI moneyline: +120
NO moneyline: -142

Saints closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49; the game landed 27 — under by 22.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: PHI 6 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Nick Sirianni vs Dennis Allen