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2024 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2024 · SoFi Stadium

San Francisco 49ers

24

Los Angeles RamsWinner

27

SF -6 upsetO 44.5 ✓Dome

Los Angeles Rams 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:56, SF +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LA ↑SF ↓
Q4 · 0:56SF 24 — LA 24SF ball · 4th & 8SF 66%

(:56) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to LA 12, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at 50 for 38 yards (3-M.Wishnowsky).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:56SF +22% win prob(:56) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to LA 12, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at 50 for 38 yards (3-M.Wishnowsky).
  2. Q4 · 0:42LA +20% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 86-C.Parkinson. Penalty on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Defensive Holding, declined. Penalty on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. PENALTY on SF-59-D.Campbell, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
  3. Q4 · 2:43LA +10% win prob(2:43) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 5-T.Atwell to SF 5 for 50 yards (7-C.Ward).
  4. Q4 · 0:37LA +10% win prob(:37) 23-K.Williams right guard to SF 19 for 6 yards (7-C.Ward, 54-F.Warner).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:17SF Touchdown

    (11:17) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 15-J.Jennings for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 7 — LA 0
  2. Q1 · 1:53SF Touchdown

    (1:53) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 15-J.Jennings for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 14 — LA 0
  3. Q2 · 1:15LA Touchdown

    (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 14 — LA 7
  4. Q3 · 7:07SF Touchdown

    (7:07) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 15-J.Jennings for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 21 — LA 7
  5. Q3 · 3:56LA Touchdown

    (3:56) 23-K.Williams left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 21 — LA 14
  6. Q4 · 12:00SF Field goal

    (12:00) 4-J.Moody 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SF 24 — LA 14
  7. Q4 · 6:18LA Field goal

    (6:18) 16-J.Karty 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: SF 24 — LA 17
  8. Q4 · 1:54LA Touchdown

    (1:54) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 24 — LA 24
  9. Q4 · 0:05LA Field goal

    (:05) 16-J.Karty 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: SF 24 — LA 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric49ersRams
Offensive plays6555
Total yards425 (edge)296
Yards per play6.5 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play0.20 (edge)0.12
Success rate48% (edge)44%
Dropback rate58%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.39 (edge)0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.070.14 (edge)
Third downs6/11 (edge)5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)17
Sacks taken1 (edge)3
Turnovers21 (edge)

49ers outgained Rams 425–296 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

22/30, 292 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

14.3 expected points added · +8.3% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

16/25, 221 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.4 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

24 att, 89 yds, 2 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Jordan MasonRB

19 att, 77 yds, 0 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Jauan JenningsWR

11/12 for 175 yds, 3 TD

40% of team targets · 15.5 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Tutu AtwellWR

4/5 for 93 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SFSF 3010553:48Touchdown +7
2LALA 30581:32Punt
3SFSF 2314687:53Touchdown +7
4LALA 309234:56Punt
5SFSF 196212:56Punt
6LALA 1317987:44Touchdown +7
7SFSF 305260:44Fumble
8LALA 443-30:27End of half
9LALA 306201:32Punt
10SFSF 912916:27Touchdown +7
11LALA 308243:08Touchdown +7
12SFSF 3014726:56Field goal +3
13LALA 3014655:42Field goal +3
14SFSF 308433:32Missed field goal
15LALA 454550:52Touchdown +7
16SFSF 307151:09Punt
17LA50260:40Field goal +3
18SFSF 302340:02End of game

9 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 98 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy22/3029230114.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jordan Mason19774.10-2.7
Brock Purdy10414.101.6
Isaac Guerendo5193.80-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jauan Jennings1112175340%15.5
Brandon Aiyuk51048033%0.9
Eric Saubert224107%1.6
Ronnie Bell1312010%-1.2
Jordan Mason221107%0.3
Kyle Juszczyk11603%0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Charvarius Ward530.001
Isaac Yiadom420.000
Talanoa Hufanga330.000
De'Vondre Campbell220.000
Fred Warner130.001
Ji'Ayir Brown220.002
Javon Hargrave211.000
Leonard Floyd110.000
Nick Bosa110.000
Deommodore Lenoir200.000

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford16/252211033.4
Tutu Atwell0/10000-0.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyren Williams24893.721.1
Ronnie Rivers294.502.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tutu Atwell4593022%7.8
Demarcus Robinson1432017%0.4
Jordan Whittington3328013%1.9
Kyren Williams222719%3.2
Colby Parkinson3521022%-1.4
Tyler Johnson3420017%-3.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Christian Rozeboom360.000
Quentin Lake440.000
Kamren Curl520.000
Kamren Kinchens330.000
Troy Reeder140.000
Cobie Durant140.000
Byron Young221.001
Jared Verse130.000
Michael Hoecht120.000
Kobie Turner120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -6
Closing total
44.5
SF moneyline
-258
LA moneyline
+210

49ers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 51 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
SF 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Sean McVay

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.