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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
San Francisco 49ers 24 at Los Angeles Rams 27. Final.
49ers -6 upsetO 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 3
Los Angeles Rams 27, 49ers 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:56, 4th and 8 — 21.9 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:56 · 4th and 8
Unnamed on the sheet
Rams
(:56) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to LA 12, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at 50 for 38 yards (3-M.Wishnowsky).
Dome
49ers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Rams 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:56, Rams +21.9% win probability on one snap.
21.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tutu AtwellRamsQ4 2:43(2:43) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 5-T.Atwell to SF 5 for 50 yards (7-C.Ward).
10.3pts
Matthew StaffordRamsQ4 0:42(:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 86-C.Parkinson. Penalty on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Defensive Holding, declined. Penalty on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. PENALTY on SF-59-D.Campbell, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
20.1pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Rams at 4 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
49ers owned this one and still lost it — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Rams at +0.10 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.07 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 11 on third down, against Rams at 5 of 12 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on 49ers159 of 172 plays carry both curves
(:56) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to LA 12, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at 50 for 38 yards (3-M.Wishnowsky).
Swing +21.9 for RamsExpected points +1.67 for RamsThe model had Rams 15 points higher than the market did.play 164
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:56SF +22% win prob(:56) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to LA 12, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at 50 for 38 yards (3-M.Wishnowsky).
4th · 0:42LA +20% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 86-C.Parkinson. Penalty on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Defensive Holding, declined. Penalty on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. PENALTY on SF-59-D.Campbell, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
4th · 2:43LA +10% win prob(2:43) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 5-T.Atwell to SF 5 for 50 yards (7-C.Ward).
4th · 0:37LA +10% win prob(:37) 23-K.Williams right guard to SF 19 for 6 yards (7-C.Ward, 54-F.Warner).
4th · 0:02SF +10% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 10-R.Bell to SF 42 for 12 yards. Lateral to 82-E.Saubert to SF 39 for -3 yards. Lateral to 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 44 for 5 yards. Lateral to 24-J.Mason to SF 45 for 1 yard. Lateral to 77-D.Puni to SF 42 for -3 yards. Lateral to 82-E.Saubert to LA 38 for 20 yards. Lateral to 64-J.Brendel to LA 35 for 3 yards (3-K.Curl). FUMBLES (3-K.Curl), ball out of bounds at LA 36.
4th · 1:54
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Joshua Karty's 37-yard field goal with 0:05 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:05Joshua Karty·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.WardLead never changed again+324–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryRams
49ers7–2Rams
425Total yards296
6.5Yards per play5.4
48%Success rate44%
55%Third-down rate42%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays4
21First downs17
1Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
49ers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.2049ers: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.12Rams: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.3949ers: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.10Rams: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.0749ers: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.14Rams: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 65 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Rams’s 55 at 53%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Rams 5.
Note49ers outgained Rams 425-296 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's play-action rate turned over: 4.5% in week 2 against 26.3% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +3.5 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Rams10.5%
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteLA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -13.2 pts, 9.2 points below their season mean of -4.0 pts and 1.4 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
65Aaron BanksG · Every snap100%71 snaps
68Colton McKivitzT · Every snap100%71 snaps
77Dominick PuniG · Every snap100%71 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Every snap100%71 snaps
13Brock PurdyQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Full-time97%69 snaps
82Eric SaubertTE · Full-time86%61 snaps
15Jauan JenningsWR · Full-time85%60 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Full-time80%57 snaps
24Jordan MasonRB · Heavy rotation75%53 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Heavy rotation62%44 snaps
10Ronnie BellWR · Rotational42%30 snaps
18Chris ConleyWR · Rotational28%20 snaps
88Jake TongesTE · Situational23%16 snaps
31Isaac GuerendoRB · Situational14%10 snaps
9Brayden WillisTE · Situational6%4 snaps
76Jaylon MooreT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Darrell Luter Jr.CBBen BartchGTatum BethuneMLBJoshua DobbsQBGeorge KittleTEDeebo Samuel Sr.WR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Wishnowsky punts−18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:56) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to LA 12, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at 50 for 38 yards (3-M.Wishnowsky).
Q4 0:56 · 49ers · 4th & 8 at SF 45 · gained nothing · -1.67 EP · −17.7% win probability
157 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 91 yards from the SF 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
48%
Yards
721
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR31+0.1039%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.1363%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.3268%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.0242%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.4240%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
49ers6Rams0
49ers7Rams0
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Rams 13
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 38
49ers13Rams0
49ers14Rams0
Touchdown19 plays, from the 49ers 23 to the Rams 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 49
2nd quarter42 plays
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 49 to the 49ers 45
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 19 to the 49ers 40
49ers14Rams6
49ers14Rams7
Touchdown18 plays, from the Rams 13 to the 49ers 15
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Rams 40
The period ended5 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 30 to midfield
49ers20Rams7
49ers21Rams7
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 9 to the Rams 31
49ers21Rams13
49ers21Rams14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 30 to the 49ers 3
The period ended9 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Rams 21
4th quarter52 plays
49ers24Rams14
Field goal6 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Rams 7
49ers24Rams17
Field goal15 plays, from the Rams 30 to the 49ers 8
The period ended11 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Rams 37
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
49ers24Rams23
49ers24Rams24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Rams 45 to the 49ers 4
The period ended8 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 45
49ers24Rams27
Field goal4 plays, from midfield to the 49ers 19
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a trick play, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxOne defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -6
Closing total
44.5
49ers moneyline
-258
Rams moneyline
+210
49ers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 51 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
49ers 7 days · Rams 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Sean McVay
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
LA +9% win prob
(1:54) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:31SF +9% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy sacked at LA 47 for -7 yards (0-B.Young). FUMBLES (0-B.Young), RECOVERED by LA-55-B.Fiske at LA 44.
4th · 2:48SF +8% win prob(2:48) 63-N.Zakelj and 76-J.Moore reported in as eligible. 4-J.Moody 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
