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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:44 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Commanders152 of 164 plays carry both curves
(2:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin to CIN 4 for 55 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
Swing −11.6 for BengalsExpected points −4.46 for BengalsThe model had Commanders 16 points higher than the market did.play 63
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:57CIN +12% win prob(2:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin to CIN 4 for 55 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
4th · 9:47CIN +11% win prob(9:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:38CIN +10% win prob(11:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:43CIN +10% win prob(11:43) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:39CIN +7% win prob(7:39) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 12-L.McCaffrey pushed ob at CIN 2 for 30 yards (22-G.Stone).
4th · 2:15CIN +7% win prob(2:15) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN [22-G.Stone].
2nd · 14:56
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Austin Ekeler's 24-yard rushing touchdown with 11:38 left in the 2nd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:43Ja'Marr Chase·41-yd TD catch41-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+70–7
Bengals ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.77 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.52Commanders: +0.52 expected points added per play
+0.37Bengals: +0.37 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.77Commanders: +0.77 expected points added per play
+0.39Bengals: +0.39 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.20Commanders: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.31Bengals: +0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 55 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Bengals’s 61 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 5, Bengals 6.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.52 expected points added per play vs 0.37.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's pass rate over expected turned over: −5.5 pts in week 2 against +6.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
CIN's blitz rate sent turned over: 12.5% in week 2 against 36.7% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 25 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Bengals10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteWAS's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 6.4 pts, 6.7 points above their season mean of -0.3 pts and 1.2 times their own 5.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Daniels pass+12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(7:39) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 12-L.McCaffrey pushed ob at CIN 2 for 30 yards (22-G.Stone).
Q1 7:39 · Commanders · 4th & 2 at CIN 32 · gained 30 · +4.71 EP · +12.2% win probability
150 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 15 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 15 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 78 yards from the CIN 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.34
Success rate
56%
Yards
792
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.3475%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.5858%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.3647%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.6227%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.1430%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.6750%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Commanders0Bengals6
Commanders0Bengals7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Commanders 41
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Commanders6Bengals7
Commanders7Bengals7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Bengals 1
The period ended11 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Commanders 29
2nd quarter47 plays
No good2 plays
Commanders13Bengals7
Commanders14Bengals7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Commanders 38 to the Bengals 24
Commanders14Bengals10
Field goal12 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Commanders 8
Commanders20Bengals10
Commanders21Bengals10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Bengals 4
Commanders21Bengals13
Field goal13 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Commanders 13
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Commanders27Bengals13
Commanders28Bengals13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 33 to the Bengals 1
Commanders28Bengals19
Commanders28Bengals20
Touchdown18 plays, from the Bengals 22 to the Commanders 2
The period ended7 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Bengals 42
4th quarter47 plays
Commanders31Bengals20
Field goal8 plays, from the Bengals 41 to the Bengals 24
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Commanders31Bengals26
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Commanders 31
Commanders37Bengals26
Commanders38Bengals26
Touchdown17 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Bengals 27
Commanders38Bengals32
Commanders38Bengals33
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Commanders 1
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
