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2024 Week 3 · Mon, Sep 23, 2024 · Paycor Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

38

Cincinnati Bengals

33

CIN -7.5 upsetO 46 ✓

Washington Commanders 38–33. Biggest swing: Q2 2:57, CIN +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CIN ↑WAS ↓
Q2 · 2:57WAS 14 — CIN 10WAS ball · 2nd & 5WAS 52%

(2:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin to CIN 4 for 55 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 2:57CIN +12% win prob(2:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin to CIN 4 for 55 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
  2. Q4 · 9:47CIN +11% win prob(9:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 11:38CIN +10% win prob(11:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q1 · 11:43CIN +10% win prob(11:43) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:43CIN Touchdown

    (11:43) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — CIN 7
  2. Q1 · 5:28WAS Touchdown

    (5:28) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 7 — CIN 7
  3. Q2 · 11:38WAS Touchdown

    (11:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 14 — CIN 7
  4. Q2 · 5:28CIN Field goal

    (5:28) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: WAS 14 — CIN 10
  5. Q2 · 2:08WAS Touchdown

    (2:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 21 — CIN 10
  6. Q2 · 0:26CIN Field goal

    (:26) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: WAS 21 — CIN 13
  7. Q3 · 9:58WAS Touchdown

    (9:58) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 73-T.Scott for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 28 — CIN 13
  8. Q3 · 3:07CIN Touchdown

    (3:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 80-A.Iosivas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 28 — CIN 20
  9. Q4 · 11:35WAS Field goal

    (11:35) 3-A.Seibert 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 31 — CIN 20
  10. Q4 · 9:47CIN Touchdown

    (9:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: WAS 31 — CIN 26
  11. Q4 · 2:15WAS Touchdown

    (2:15) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN [22-G.Stone]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 38 — CIN 26
  12. Q4 · 0:43CIN Touchdown

    (:43) (Shotgun) 31-Z.Moss right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 38 — CIN 33

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersBengals
Offensive plays5561
Total yards358436 (edge)
Yards per play6.57.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.52 (edge)0.37
Success rate60% (edge)56%
Dropback rate55%69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.77 (edge)0.39
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.200.31 (edge)
Third downs5/96/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)49 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2130 (edge)
Sacks taken22
Turnovers00

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.52 expected points added per play vs 0.37.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

29/38, 324 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

16.0 expected points added · +9.2% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

21/23, 254 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

21.6 expected points added · +28.4% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Chase BrownRB

7 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Zack MossRB

12 att, 58 yds, 1 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

6/7 for 118 yds, 2 TD

18% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

4/6 for 100 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CINCIN 298713:23Touchdown +7
2WASWAS 3012696:12Touchdown +7
3CINCIN 2312475:34Missed field goal
4WASWAS 388623:20Touchdown +7
5CINCIN 3012616:06Field goal +3
6WASWAS 258753:21Touchdown +7
7CINCIN 3010571:42Field goal +3
8WASWAS 30200:22End of half
9WASCIN 3311285:06Touchdown +7
10CINCIN 2215786:51Touchdown +7
11WASWAS 3013466:33Field goal +3
12CINCIN 307701:48Touchdown +6
13WASWAS 3014787:32Touchdown +7
14CINCIN 3010521:30Touchdown +7
15WASCIN 36200:40End of game

12 of 15 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 78 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jayden Daniels21/2325420221.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jayden Daniels12393.313.3
Austin Ekeler33511.713.1
Brian Robinson16332.11-1.4
Jeremy McNichols111.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Terry McLaurin46100126%8.1
Luke McCaffrey3344013%5.7
Zach Ertz5538022%4.7
Noah Brown3329013%3.3
Austin Ekeler222209%2.1
Dyami Brown221609%-0.5
Brian Robinson11404%-0.0
Trenton Scott11114%0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner610.000
Frankie Luvu340.001
Benjamin St-Juste420.000
Mike Sainristil510.001
Quan Martin140.000
Percy Butler130.001
Noah Igbinoghene220.000
Jeremy Chinn400.000
Jer'Zhan Newton220.000
Jamin Davis210.000

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Burrow29/3832430216.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chase Brown7628.903.3
Zack Moss12584.812.6
Joe Burrow144.000.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ja'Marr Chase67118218%8.4
Andrei Iosivas5752118%6.2
Mike Gesicki4547013%1.6
Zack Moss5639016%1.0
Tee Higgins3639016%1.2
Erick All4422011%1.1
Chase Brown23708%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Vonn Bell450.000
Germaine Pratt530.000
Logan Wilson430.000
Dax Hill230.000
Geno Stone310.000
Akeem Davis-Gaither210.000
Sam Hubbard210.000
Cam Taylor-Britt210.000
Zach Carter210.500
Jay Tufele020.500

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CIN -7.5
Closing total
46
WAS moneyline
+280
CIN moneyline
-355

Bengals closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 71 — over by 25.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
69°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
WAS 8 days · CIN 8 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Zac Taylor