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Baltimore Ravens 35, Bills 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 11:02, 1st and 10, on Derrick Henry — 15.7 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:02 · 1st and 10
Derrick Henry
Ravens
(11:02) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Ravens closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 25.
Baltimore Ravens 35–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:02, Ravens +15.7% win probability on one snap.
15.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Derrick HenryRavensQ2 15:00(15:00) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 22-D.Henry for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.9pts
Josh AllenRavensQ3 6:30(6:30) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 1-C.Samuel. 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 49 for -7 yards (53-K.Van Noy). FUMBLES (53-K.Van Noy), RECOVERED by BAL-14-K.Hamilton at BAL 48. 14-K.Hamilton to BUF 44 for 8 yards (1-C.Samuel). PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 44.
6.6pts
What separated them
Third down
Ravens won this one — 5 of 9 on third down, against Bills at 3 of 13 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Bills at -0.14 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Bills at -0.24 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bills at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
(11:02) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +15.7 for RavensExpected points +6.51 for RavensModel and market agree here.play 11
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:02BAL +16% win prob(11:02) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 6:30BUF +7% win prob(6:30) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 1-C.Samuel. 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 49 for -7 yards (53-K.Van Noy). FUMBLES (53-K.Van Noy), RECOVERED by BAL-14-K.Hamilton at BAL 48. 14-K.Hamilton to BUF 44 for 8 yards (1-C.Samuel). PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 44.
2nd · 15:00BAL +6% win prob(15:00) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 22-D.Henry for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:38BAL +6% win prob(4:38) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
1st · 13:15BAL +4% win prob(13:15) 17-J.Allen left guard to BUF 42 for 3 yards (98-T.Jones; 23-T.Simpson).
3rd · 12:23BAL +4% win prob(12:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-K.Shakir to BAL 3 for 52 yards (21-B.Stephens) [92-N.Madubuike].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Derrick Henry's 87-yard rushing touchdown with 11:02 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:02Derrick Henry·87-yd TD run87-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st4:38Tyler Bass·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+33–7
Ravens ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Bills: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.29Ravens: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Bills: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.39Ravens: +0.39 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Bills: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.24Ravens: +0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 57 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Ravens’s 54 at 37%. Red-zone trips: Bills 2, Ravens 5.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's play-action rate turned over: 28.6% in week 3 against 8.1% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
BUF's blitz rate sent turned over: 7.7% in week 3 against 35.0% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
20 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
Ravens24.3%
leaned — got home · +7.7 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteBAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.3%, 7.7 points above their season mean of 16.7% and 1.4 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Henry right+15% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:02) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 11:02 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at BAL 13 · gained 87 · +6.51 EP · +15.1% win probability
146 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 154 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 146 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 87 yards from the BAL 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
154 of 154 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
154
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
45%
Yards
663
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.1676%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15+0.5340%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR14+0.4529%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR13-0.0654%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.200%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.2929%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.150%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Bills0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 30 to midfield
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bills0Ravens6
Bills0Ravens7
Touchdown2 plays
Bills3Ravens7
Field goal14 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Ravens 30
The period ended10 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Bills 4
2nd quarter44 plays
Bills3Ravens13
Bills3Ravens14
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 39
Bills3Ravens20
Bills3Ravens21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 19 to the Bills 19
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 32
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Bills 35
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Ravens 48
The period ended1 play
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays
Bills9Ravens21
Bills10Ravens21
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bills 40 to the Ravens 3
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 35
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bills 19 to the Ravens 44
Bills10Ravens27
Bills10Ravens28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 41 to the Bills 9
The period ended9 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Ravens 14
4th quarter36 plays
No good1 play
Bills10Ravens34
Bills10Ravens35
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 38 to the Bills 1
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Bills 49
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 49 to the Bills 45
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Bills 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
