2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -2.5 ✓U 46.5 ✓Ravens closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Baltimore Ravens 35–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:02, BAL +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:02BUF 0 — BAL 6BAL ball · 1st & 10BAL 59%

(11:02) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:02BAL +16% win prob(11:02) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 6:30BUF +7% win prob(6:30) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 1-C.Samuel. 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 49 for -7 yards (53-K.Van Noy). FUMBLES (53-K.Van Noy), RECOVERED by BAL-14-K.Hamilton at BAL 48. 14-K.Hamilton to BUF 44 for 8 yards (1-C.Samuel). PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 44.
Q2 · 15:00BAL +6% win prob(15:00) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 22-D.Henry for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 4:38BAL +6% win prob(4:38) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:02BAL Touchdown
(11:02) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 0 — BAL 7
Q1 · 4:38BUF Field goal
(4:38) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 3 — BAL 7
Q2 · 15:00BAL Touchdown
(15:00) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 22-D.Henry for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 3 — BAL 14
Q2 · 7:40BAL Touchdown
(7:40) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 43-J.Hill for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 3 — BAL 21
Q3 · 11:31BUF Touchdown
(11:31) (No Huddle) 26-Ty.Johnson left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 10 — BAL 21
Q3 · 2:51BAL Touchdown
(2:51) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 10 — BAL 28
Q4 · 11:31BAL Touchdown
(11:31) 22-D.Henry right tackle to BUF 2 for -1 yards (31-R.Douglas). FUMBLES (31-R.Douglas), recovered by BAL-42-P.Ricard at BUF -3. TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 10 — BAL 35

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Ravens
Offensive plays	57	54
Total yards	236	427 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	7.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.14	0.29 (edge)
Success rate	35%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	37%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	0.39 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06	0.24 (edge)
Third downs	3/13	5/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

16/29, 180 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-7.6 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

13/18, 156 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.2 expected points added · +9.5% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

24 att, 199 yds, 1 TD

8.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

6 att, 54 yds, 1 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Justice HillRB

6/6 for 78 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Khalil ShakirWR

4/5 for 62 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 30	9	20	3:58	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 13	2	87	0:12	Touchdown +7
3	BUF	BUF 30	12	58	6:16	Field goal +3
4	BAL	BAL 30	11	55	4:39	Touchdown +7
5	BUF	BUF 30	5	9	2:05	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 19	11	96	5:16	Touchdown +7
7	BUF	BUF 30	5	-5	1:35	Punt
8	BAL	BAL 29	6	42	3:34	Fumble
9	BUF	BUF 39	7	8	1:43	Punt
10	BAL	BAL 20	1	1	0:42	End of half
11	BAL	BAL 30	5	4	1:07	Punt
12	BUF	BUF 40	5	60	2:27	Touchdown +7
13	BAL	BAL 30	5	3	2:31	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 19	6	33	2:35	Fumble
15	BAL	BAL 41	7	59	3:35	Touchdown +7
16	BUF	BUF 30	9	40	2:50	Missed field goal
17	BAL	BAL 38	7	58	3:32	Turnover on downs +7
18	BUF	BUF 30	5	0	0:30	Punt
19	BAL	BAL 33	7	18	3:36	Punt
20	BUF	BUF 6	4	-2	1:40	Punt
21	BAL	BUF 49	4	4	2:19	Punt
22	BUF	BUF 26	5	15	3:18	End of game

7 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 96 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	16/29	180	0	0	3	-7.6
Mitchell Trubisky	1/2	2	0	0	0	-0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	9	39	4.3	0	0.7
Josh Allen	5	21	4.2	0	1.6
Ray Davis	7	11	1.6	0	-3.0
Curtis Samuel	1	7	7.0	0	0.4
Ty Johnson	1	3	3.0	1	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Khalil Shakir	4	5	62	19%	2.9
Keon Coleman	3	4	51	15%	3.9
Dalton Kincaid	5	7	47	26%	1.6
James Cook	1	1	9	4%	0.9
Curtis Samuel	2	2	8	7%	-0.2
Mack Hollins	1	6	5	22%	-3.1
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	0	1	0	4%	-0.5
Dawson Knox	1	1	0	4%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Dorian Williams	4	7	0.0	0
Cole Bishop	2	4	0.0	0
Rasul Douglas	4	2	0.0	0
Cameron Lewis	3	3	0.0	0
Baylon Spector	3	2	1.0	0
Dawuane Smoot	2	2	0.0	0
Damar Hamlin	2	1	0.0	1
Christian Benford	3	0	0.0	0
DeWayne Carter	2	1	0.0	0
Taylor Rapp	1	1	0.0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	13/18	156	2	0	1	9.2
Josh Johnson	1/1	1	0	0	0	-1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	24	199	8.3	1	8.6
Lamar Jackson	6	54	9.0	1	0.1
Justice Hill	4	18	4.5	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justice Hill	6	6	78	1	33%	9.3
Isaiah Likely	1	2	26	0	11%	1.2
Rashod Bateman	1	1	23	0	6%	2.0
Derrick Henry	3	3	10	1	17%	-0.3
Nelson Agholor	2	3	10	0	17%	0.1
Zay Flowers	1	2	10	0	11%	-0.4
Mark Andrews	0	1	0	0	6%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kyle Hamilton	6	1	0.0	0
Roquan Smith	2	4	0.0	0
Marlon Humphrey	4	2	0.0	1
Malik Harrison	1	3	0.0	0
Brandon Stephens	3	1	0.0	0
Adisa Isaac	1	2	0.0	0
Marcus Williams	1	1	0.0	0
Odafe Oweh	1	1	1.0	0
David Ojabo	1	1	0.0	0
Nate Wiggins	0	2	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -2.5
Closing total: 46.5
BUF moneyline: +114
BAL moneyline: -135

Ravens closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 45 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 68°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: BUF 6 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs John Harbaugh