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2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

34

Carolina Panthers

24

CIN -4.5 ✓O 47 ✓

Cincinnati Bengals 34–24. Biggest swing: Q2 7:28, CAR +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CARCIN
Q2 · 7:28CIN 13CAR 7CIN ball · 3rd & 3CIN 68%

(7:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 7:28CAR +14% win prob(7:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 2:22CIN +11% win prob(2:22) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 5-Di.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 24-V.Bell (91-T.Hendrickson) at CAR 48. 24-V.Bell pushed ob at CAR 16 for 32 yards (6-M.Sanders).
  3. Q2 · 0:06CAR +9% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 31-Z.Moss for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q1 · 13:48CAR +9% win prob(13:48) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 5-Di.Johnson pushed ob at CIN 25 for 39 yards (22-G.Stone).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 0:08CIN Touchdown

    (:08) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 7CAR 0
  2. Q2 · 9:38CAR Touchdown

    (9:38) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 7CAR 7
  3. Q2 · 7:28CIN Touchdown

    (7:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 14CAR 7
  4. Q2 · 1:13CAR Touchdown

    (1:13) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 17-X.Legette for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-J.Ossai]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 14CAR 14
  5. Q2 · 0:06CIN Touchdown

    (:06) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 31-Z.Moss for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 21CAR 14
  6. Q3 · 10:41CIN Touchdown

    (10:41) (No Huddle) 30-C.Brown right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 28CAR 14
  7. Q3 · 2:57CIN Field goal

    (2:57) 2-E.McPherson 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: CIN 31CAR 14
  8. Q3 · 0:58CAR Touchdown

    (:58) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 5-Di.Johnson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 31CAR 21
  9. Q4 · 7:46CAR Field goal

    (7:46) 4-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: CIN 31CAR 24
  10. Q4 · 1:17CIN Field goal

    (1:17) 2-E.McPherson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: CIN 34CAR 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBengalsPanthers
Offensive plays6269
Total yards373376 (edge)
Yards per play6.0 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play0.17 (edge)0.00
Success rate44%48% (edge)
Dropback rate52%62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.30 (edge)-0.00
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.02 (edge)0.02
Third downs7/147/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps2022 (edge)
Sacks taken00
Turnovers11

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

22/31, 232 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

9.0 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Andy DaltonQB

25/40, 220 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

3.1 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

18 att, 104 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Chase BrownRB

15 att, 80 yds, 2 TD

5.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

3/6 for 85 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Diontae JohnsonWR

7/13 for 83 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CARCAR 3013695:52Turnover on downs
2CINCIN 19354:35Punt
3CARCAR 206142:24Interception
4CINCAR 166142:04Touchdown +7
5CARCAR 3013655:34Touchdown +7
6CINCIN 196812:17Touchdown +7
7CARCAR 3013706:05Touchdown +7
8CINCIN 3410461:08Touchdown +7
9CARCAR 30200:01End of half
10CINCIN 2910714:22Touchdown +7
11CARCAR 30581:40Punt
12CINCIN 18441:32Punt
13CARCAR 176232:08Turnover on downs
14CINCAR 35572:26Field goal +3
15CARCAR 307701:59Touchdown +7
16CINCIN 2410554:25Interception
17CARCAR 418293:46Field goal +3
18CINCIN 237203:00Punt
19CARCAR 8400:19Punt
20CINCIN 379403:09Field goal +3
21CARCAR 306281:14End of game

10 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 81 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Burrow22/312322109.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chase Brown15805.325.2
Zack Moss15513.40-4.6
Joe Burrow11010.000.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ja'Marr Chase3685120%3.2
Tee Higgins61060033%1.8
Andrei Iosivas112903%1.8
Erick All4428013%1.4
Zack Moss4427113%5.3
Chase Brown2312010%-0.6
Drew Sample11003%-0.8
Mike Gesicki11-903%-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Logan Wilson550.000
Germaine Pratt530.001
D.J. Turner610.002
Geno Stone230.000
Dax Hill410.001
Vonn Bell230.011
Joseph Ossai130.000
Mike Hilton210.000
Akeem Davis-Gaither110.000
Jay Tufele110.000

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Andy Dalton25/402202103.1
Johnny Hekker0/10000-3.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard181045.810.5
Miles Sanders6325.30-0.2
Xavier Legette2105.000.1
Andy Dalton393.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Diontae Johnson71383133%1.0
Xavier Legette61066125%4.0
Jonathan Mingo3524013%-0.2
Chuba Hubbard4417010%0.7
Ja'Tavion Sanders221605%1.0
Miles Sanders3414010%-2.5
Feleipe Franks01003%-3.0
Jalen Coker01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jaycee Horn710.001
Xavier Woods530.011
Josey Jewell340.000
Nick Scott330.000
Troy Hill330.000
D.J. Johnson140.000
Shaq Thompson320.000
LaBryan Ray310.000
Charles Harris200.000
Nick Thurman200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CIN -4.5
Closing total
47
CIN moneyline
-205
CAR moneyline
+170

Bengals closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 47; the game landed 58 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
78°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
CIN 6 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Dave Canales