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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
BengalsCincinnati34
BY 10final margin
PanthersCarolina24
Cincinnati Bengals 34 at Carolina Panthers 24. Final.
Bengals -4.5 ✓O 47 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 4
Cincinnati Bengals 34, Panthers 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 7:28, 3rd and 3, on Ja'Marr Chase — 14.4 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:28 · 3rd and 3
Ja'Marr Chase
Bengals
(7:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Bengals closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Cincinnati Bengals 34–24. Biggest swing: Q2 7:28, Bengals +14.4% win probability on one snap.
14.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Vonn BellBengalsQ1 2:22(2:22) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 5-Di.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 24-V.Bell (91-T.Hendrickson) at CAR 48. 24-V.Bell pushed ob at CAR 16 for 32 yards (6-M.Sanders).
11.4pts
Zack MossBengalsQ2 0:06(:06) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 31-Z.Moss for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
9.1pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bengals won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Panthers at 5 chunk plays.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.30 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.00 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Panthers at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Panthers at +0.00 expected points per snap.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Bengals170 of 185 plays carry both curves
(7:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −14.4 for PanthersExpected points −5.81 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 18 points higher than the market did.play 55
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:28CAR +14% win prob(7:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:22CIN +11% win prob(2:22) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 5-Di.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 24-V.Bell (91-T.Hendrickson) at CAR 48. 24-V.Bell pushed ob at CAR 16 for 32 yards (6-M.Sanders).
2nd · 0:06CAR +9% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 31-Z.Moss for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:48CAR +9% win prob(13:48) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 5-Di.Johnson pushed ob at CIN 25 for 39 yards (22-G.Stone).
2nd · 0:22CAR +8% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 5-T.Higgins. PENALTY on CAR-2-M.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at CAR 21 - No Play.
1st · 3:56CAR +8% win prob(3:56) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 17-X.Legette to CAR 32 for 11 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt) [55-L.Wilson].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zack Moss's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:06 left in the 2nd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
3rd2:57Evan McPherson·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap C.Adomitis+331–14
3rd0:58Diontae Johnson·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+731–21
4th7:46Eddy Pineiro·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+331–24
4th1:17Evan McPherson·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap C.Adomitis+334–24
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryPanthers
Bengals3–3Panthers
373Total yards376
6.0Yards per play5.4
44%Success rate48%
50%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays5
20First downs22
0Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Bengals, in explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Bengals: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.00Panthers: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.30Bengals: +0.30 expected points added per play
−0.00Panthers: −0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Bengals: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.02Panthers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 62 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Panthers’s 69 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 4, Panthers 4.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's pass rate over expected, −5.5 pts, sat 13.4 points below their season number of +7.9 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.1 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
CIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 65.3% in week 3 against 47.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 25 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.7 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Panthers6.3%
inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteCIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -5.5 pts, 13.4 points below their season mean of 7.9 pts and 2.1 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 7:28 · Bengals · 3rd & 3 at CIN 37 · gained 63 · +5.81 EP · +19.4% win probability
169 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 180. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 81 yards from the CIN 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
48%
Yards
748
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.0165%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.2777%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.2632%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11-0.149%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.0056%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Bengals 1
Punt9 plays, from the Bengals 1 to the Bengals 36
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
It should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 34
Bengals6Panthers0
Bengals7Panthers0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Panthers 2
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter53 plays
Bengals7Panthers6
Bengals7Panthers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 38 to the Bengals 3
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Bengals13Panthers7
Bengals14Panthers7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bengals 19 to the Bengals 37
Bengals14Panthers13
Bengals14Panthers14
Touchdown18 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Bengals 8
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Bengals20Panthers14
Bengals21Panthers14
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 34 to the Panthers 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Bengals27Panthers14
Bengals28Panthers14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Panthers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 38
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 18 to the Bengals 22
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 17 to the Panthers 35
Bengals31Panthers14
Field goal5 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Panthers 33
Bengals31Panthers20
Bengals31Panthers21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Bengals 21
The period ended6 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Bengals 29
4th quarter49 plays
Intercepted7 plays, from midfield to the Panthers 30
Bengals31Panthers24
Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 41 to the Bengals 30
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Bengals 45
Punt4 plays
Bengals34Panthers24
Field goal16 plays, from the Bengals 37 to the Panthers 25
The period ended7 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Bengals 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
