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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 4
It turned at Q4 0:41, 4th and 3, on Deshaun Watson — 50.1 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Las Vegas Raiders 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 0:41, Raiders +50.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:41 · 4th and 3
Deshaun Watson
Raiders
(:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at LV 19 for -10 yards (49-C.Snowden).
50.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Raiders won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Browns at 1 chunk play.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns owned this one and still lost it — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.17 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Raiders won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Browns at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Raiders won this one — 4 of 11 on third down, against Browns at 3 of 10 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at LV 19 for -10 yards (49-C.Snowden).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Daniel Carlson's 34-yard field goal with 11:32 left in the 3rd put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Daniel Carlson34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.BobenmoyerLead never changed again+310–13
Rodney McLeod25-yd defense TD25-yard touchdownthe defense scored it · kick no good, wide left+616–207 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryRaiders
Raiders ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 57 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Raiders’s 53 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Browns 2, Raiders 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's sack or hit rate turned over: 10.0% in week 3 against 23.8% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
LV's early-down pass rate turned over: 73.3% in week 3 against 42.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
LV's play-action rate turned over: 6.5% in week 3 against 34.6% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 3 against 25.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Browns5.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +4.8 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 57 snaps
Raiders-10.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.9 vs their -0.9 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.54× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 35% to 90%
Tendencies room →Browns69.6%inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 63.7%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 46 early downs
Raiders42.9%leaned — ran early · −19.9 vs their 62.8%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.84× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 44%
Tendencies room →Browns33.3%leaned — faked the run · +10.8 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.52× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Raiders34.6%leaned — faked the run · +14.9 vs their 19.7%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+1.54× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 124%
Fourth Down room →Browns25.0%leaned — took the kick · −34.1 vs their 59.1%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Raiders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.1%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 71%
Tendencies room →Browns61.5%leaned — sent pressure · +30.5 vs their 31.0%, and they swing ±15.6 week to week (+1.95× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Raiders35.7%right on their number · +2.6 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±13.1 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 40%
Tendencies room →Browns15.4%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Raiders23.8%leaned — got home · +11.3 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.86× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
CLE's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 61.5%, 30.5 points above their season mean of 31.0% and 2.0 times their own 15.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
24/32, 176 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-6.9 expected points added · +4.1% completion over expected
Passing · LV
14/24, 130 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-3.8 expected points added · -13.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
D.J. Turner banked 4.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome FordRB · Committee Back | 15.5 | +0.5 | 78% | 81% | 22% | 0% | 10 car, 58 yd · 7/7, 27 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.4 | +3.6 | 85% | 96% | 25% | 18% | 1 car, 3 yd, 1 TD · 5/6, 41 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.2 | +0.9 | 86% | 93% | 28% | 58% | 6/9, 72 yd |
| Deshaun WatsonQB · Starter QB | 12.2 | −3.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/32, 176 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 8 car, 32 yd |
| Blake WhiteheartTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.3 | +2.4 | 36% | 31% | 9% | 5% | 3/3, 13 yd, 1 TD |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.9 | −6.5 | 97% | 100% | 42% | 53% | 5/10, 49 yd |
| D.J. TurnerWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.8 | +4.7 | 42% | 50% | 4% | 21% | 1 car, 18 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Amari CooperWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.5 | −2.5 | 93% | 95% | 25% | 57% | 4/8, 35 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB | 6.0 | +2.1 | 36% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 5 car, 60 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Brock BowersTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −0.2 | 81% | 81% | 13% | 10% | 1 car, 12 yd · 2/3, 19 yd |
| Gardner MinshewQB · Starter QB | 5.0 | −2.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/24, 130 yd · 2 car, -2 yd |
| Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +1.9 | 76% | 65% | 8% | 2% | 2/2, 21 yd |
| Zamir WhiteRB · Committee Back | 3.0 | −7.4 | 59% | 50% | 4% | 0% | 17 car, 50 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.8 | 73% | 74% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −0.5 | 47% | 45% | 6% | 0% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| D'Onta ForemanRB | 1.7 | −6.1 | 22% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 4 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| James ProcheWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyreik McAllisterRB | 1.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Gary BrightwellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Alex BachmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at LV 19 for -10 yards (49-C.Snowden).
Q4 0:41 · Browns · 4th & 3 at LV 9 · lost 10 · -2.85 EP · −40.7% win probability
146 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 158 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 146 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 70 yards from the CLE 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Browns6
Raiders0Browns7Raiders0Browns10Raiders0Browns10Raiders6Browns10Raiders7Browns10Raiders10Browns10Raiders13How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
Browns10Raiders19Browns10Raiders20How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Browns16Raiders20How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 24/32 | 176 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −6.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 0 | +3.3 |
| Deshaun Watson | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| D'Onta Foreman |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 | 28% | +0.4 |
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 | 25% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Martin Emerson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hickman |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 14/24 | 130 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −3.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_04_CLE_LV
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Browns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 36 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| −1.7 |
| −4.5 |
| Jerome Ford | 7 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 22% | −2.6 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 3 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 9% | +1.1 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +3.3 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | +0.8 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| James Proche | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Bush | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McGuire | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelby Harris | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Za'Darius Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Garrett | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Proche | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 5 | 60 | 12.0 | 0 | +3.6 |
| Zamir White | 17 | 50 | 2.9 | 0 | −12.8 |
| D.J. Turner | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Brock Bowers | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Tyreik McAllister | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 | +2.2 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 10 | 49 | 0 | 42% | −1.1 |
| Tre Tucker | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 25% | +2.3 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 8% | +1.0 |
| Brock Bowers | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 13% | +0.9 |
| Alexander Mattison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.7 |
| Zamir White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| D.J. Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Luke Masterson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Adam Butler | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Snowden | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nate Hobbs | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jakorian Bennett | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tommy Eichenberg | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
