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Cleveland Browns 16 at Las Vegas Raiders 20. Final.
Browns -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 4
Las Vegas Raiders 20, Browns 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:41, 4th and 3, on Deshaun Watson — 50.1 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:41 · 4th and 3
Deshaun Watson
Raiders
(:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at LV 19 for -10 yards (49-C.Snowden).
U 36.5 ✓
Dome
Browns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Las Vegas Raiders 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 0:41, Raiders +50.1% win probability on one snap.
50.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Zamir WhiteBrownsQ4 15:00(15:00) 3-Z.White right tackle to LV 30 for -3 yards (57-I.McGuire). FUMBLES (57-I.McGuire), touched at LV 29, RECOVERED by CLE-12-R.McLeod at LV 25. 12-R.McLeod for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.6pts
Jerome FordBrownsQ4 2:24(2:24) (Shotgun) 34-J.Ford left guard to LV 16 for 35 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
24.3pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Raiders won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Browns at 1 chunk play.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns owned this one and still lost it — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.17 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Raiders won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Browns at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Raiders won this one — 4 of 11 on third down, against Browns at 3 of 10 on third down.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Browns148 of 158 plays carry both curves
(:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at LV 19 for -10 yards (49-C.Snowden).
Swing +50.1 for RaidersExpected points +2.85 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 9 points higher than the market did.play 155
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:41CLE +50% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at LV 19 for -10 yards (49-C.Snowden).
4th · 2:24LV +24% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 34-J.Ford left guard to LV 16 for 35 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
4th · 15:00CLE +23% win prob(15:00) 3-Z.White right tackle to LV 30 for -3 yards (57-I.McGuire). FUMBLES (57-I.McGuire), touched at LV 29, RECOVERED by CLE-12-R.McLeod at LV 25. 12-R.McLeod for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:09CLE +14% win prob(8:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Moehrig at LV 32. 7-T.Moehrig to LV 48 for 16 yards (11-J.Proche).
4th · 3:29LV +12% win prob(3:29) 6-A.Cole punts 67 yards to CLE 18, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-J.Proche to CLE 31 for 13 yards (59-L.Masterson).
4th · 4:13CLE +10% win prob(4:13) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 11-T.Tucker to LV 15 for no gain (54-O.Okoronkwo, 91-A.Wright).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Daniel Carlson's 34-yard field goal with 11:32 left in the 3rd put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th15:00Rodney McLeod·25-yd defence TD25-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · kick no good, wide left+616–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryRaiders
Browns0–7Raiders
241Total yards270
4.2Yards per play5.1
37%Success rate40%
30%Third-down rate36%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
1Explosive plays7
15First downs15
3Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Raiders ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Browns: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.16Raiders: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Browns: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.15Raiders: −0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Browns: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.17Raiders: −0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 57 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Raiders’s 53 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Browns 2, Raiders 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's sack or hit rate turned over: 10.0% in week 3 against 23.8% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
LV's early-down pass rate turned over: 73.3% in week 3 against 42.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
LV's play-action rate turned over: 6.5% in week 3 against 34.6% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 3 against 25.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −3.2 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Raiders23.8%
leaned — got home · +11.3 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.86× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteCLE's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 61.5%, 30.5 points above their season mean of 31.0% and 2.0 times their own 15.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson sacked−41% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at LV 19 for -10 yards (49-C.Snowden).
Q4 0:41 · Browns · 4th & 3 at LV 9 · lost 10 · -2.85 EP · −40.7% win probability
146 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 158 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 146 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 70 yards from the CLE 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
158 of 158 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
158
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
40%
Yards
509
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.0865%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26-0.1746%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.1462%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Browns6Raiders0
Browns7Raiders0
Touchdown18 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Raiders 1
Punt7 plays
Browns10Raiders0
Field goal7 plays, from the Browns 46 to the Raiders 37
The period ended4 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 42
2nd quarter43 plays
Browns10Raiders6
Browns10Raiders7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 43 to the Browns 3
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Browns 29
Browns10Raiders10
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Browns 34
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 17 to the Raiders 40
The period ended8 plays, from the Raiders 3 to the Raiders 19
3rd quarter36 plays
Browns10Raiders13
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Browns 15
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Browns 49
Browns10Raiders19
Browns10Raiders20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 48 to the Browns 18
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 40
The period ended3 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 26
4th quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Browns16Raiders20
Touchdown1 play
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 26 to the Raiders 49
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 5 to the Browns 26
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 45
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Browns 16
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended9 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Raiders 9
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -2.5
Closing total
36.5
Browns moneyline
-135
Raiders moneyline
+114
Browns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 36 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Browns 7 days · Raiders 7 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs Antonio Pierce
1st · 12:06LV +9% win prob(12:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 8-E.Moore to LV 47 for 11 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LV-69-A.Butler, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LV 47.
3rd · 13:43LV +9% win prob(13:43) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left to 16-J.Meyers. PENALTY on CLE-91-A.Wright, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
