2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium

Cleveland Browns

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

CLE -2.5 upsetU 36.5 ✓DomeBrowns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Las Vegas Raiders 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 0:41, CLE +50% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:41CLE 16 — LV 20CLE ball · 4th & 3CLE 54%

(:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at LV 19 for -10 yards (49-C.Snowden).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:41CLE +50% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at LV 19 for -10 yards (49-C.Snowden).
Q4 · 2:24LV +24% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 34-J.Ford left guard to LV 16 for 35 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
Q4 · 15:00CLE +23% win prob(15:00) 3-Z.White right tackle to LV 30 for -3 yards (57-I.McGuire). FUMBLES (57-I.McGuire), touched at LV 29, RECOVERED by CLE-12-R.McLeod at LV 25. 12-R.McLeod for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 8:09CLE +14% win prob(8:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Moehrig at LV 32. 7-T.Moehrig to LV 48 for 16 yards (11-J.Proche).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:41CLE Touchdown
(5:41) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 86-B.Whiteheart for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 7 — LV 0
Q1 · 0:40CLE Field goal
(:40) 7-D.Hopkins 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CLE 10 — LV 0
Q2 · 9:55LV Touchdown
(9:55) (Shotgun) 11-T.Tucker left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 10 — LV 7
Q2 · 2:56LV Field goal
(2:56) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: CLE 10 — LV 10
Q3 · 11:32LV Field goal
(11:32) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: CLE 10 — LV 13
Q3 · 5:30LV Touchdown
(5:30) (No Huddle) 19-D.Turner left end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 10 — LV 20
Q4 · 15:00CLE Touchdown
(15:00) 3-Z.White right tackle to LV 30 for -3 yards (57-I.McGuire). FUMBLES (57-I.McGuire), touched at LV 29, RECOVERED by CLE-12-R.McLeod at LV 25. 12-R.McLeod for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CLE 16 — LV 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Raiders
Offensive plays	57	53
Total yards	241	270 (edge)
Yards per play	4.2	5.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.12 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	37%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	74%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	-0.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.17
Third downs	3/10	4/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	15
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Deshaun WatsonQB

24/32, 176 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-6.9 expected points added · +4.1% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Gardner MinshewQB

14/24, 130 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-3.8 expected points added · -13.7% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Alexander MattisonRB

5 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Jerome FordRB

10 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Jerry JeudyWR

6/9 for 72 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Jakobi MeyersWR

5/10 for 49 yds, 0 TD

42% of team targets · -1.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 30	17	60	9:22	Touchdown +7
2	LV	LV 16	5	2	1:43	Punt
3	CLE	CLE 46	6	17	3:20	Field goal +3
4	LV	LV 30	13	70	5:45	Touchdown +7
5	CLE	CLE 27	5	2	1:52	Punt
6	LV	LV 21	9	55	5:06	Field goal +3
7	CLE	CLE 17	9	43	1:32	Punt
8	LV	LV 3	4	15	1:20	End of half
9	LV	LV 30	9	40	3:32	Field goal +3
10	CLE	CLE 26	7	23	3:29	Interception
11	LV	LV 48	7	48	2:36	Touchdown +7
12	CLE	CLE 30	7	4	3:54	Punt
13	LV	LV 24	3	5	1:39	Defensive touchdown
14	LV	LV 26	7	15	3:00	Punt
15	CLE	CLE 5	6	30	3:02	Punt
16	LV	LV 20	5	25	2:24	Punt
17	CLE	CLE 10	4	6	1:29	Punt
18	LV	LV 20	4	-5	1:38	Punt
19	CLE	CLE 31	8	56	2:42	Turnover on downs
20	LV	LV 19	1	0	0:35	End of game

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 70 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	24/32	176	1	1	3	-6.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jerome Ford	10	58	5.8	3.3
Deshaun Watson	8	32	4.0	-1.4
D'Onta Foreman	4	2	0.5	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jerry Jeudy	6	9	72	0	28%	0.4
Amari Cooper	4	8	35	0	25%	-4.5
Jerome Ford	7	7	27	0	22%	-2.6
Blake Whiteheart	3	3	13	1	9%	1.1
Elijah Moore	1	1	11	0	3%	3.3
Jordan Akins	1	2	10	0	6%	0.8
D'Onta Foreman	1	1	5	0	3%	0.2
James Proche	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	6	3	0.0
Martin Emerson	5	1	0.0
Ronnie Hickman	6	0	0.0
Grant Delpit	3	1	0.0
Devin Bush	2	1	0.0
Isaiah McGuire	2	1	0.0
Shelby Harris	1	2	0.0
Za'Darius Smith	2	1	0.0
Myles Garrett	3	0	2.0
James Proche	1	0	0.0

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	14/24	130	0	0	2	-3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alexander Mattison	5	60	12.0	0	3.6
Zamir White	17	50	2.9	0	-12.8
D.J. Turner	1	18	18.0	1	1.8
Brock Bowers	1	12	12.0	0	0.6
Tyreik McAllister	2	11	5.5	0	-0.0
Tre Tucker	1	3	3.0	1	2.2
Gardner Minshew	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jakobi Meyers	5	10	49	42%	-1.1
Tre Tucker	5	6	41	25%	2.3
Harrison Bryant	2	2	21	8%	1.0
Brock Bowers	2	3	19	13%	0.9
Alexander Mattison	0	1	0	4%	-1.7
Zamir White	0	1	0	4%	-0.9
D.J. Turner	0	1	0	4%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Robert Spillane	8	3	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Pola-Mao	4	2	1.0	0	1
Luke Masterson	5	1	0.0	0	0
Trevon Moehrig	4	1	0.0	1	1
Adam Butler	3	2	0.0	0	0
Charles Snowden	2	1	1.0	0	1
Nate Hobbs	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jack Jones	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jakorian Bennett	0	3	0.0	0	1
Tommy Eichenberg	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -2.5
Closing total: 36.5
CLE moneyline: -135
LV moneyline: +114

Browns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 36.5; the game landed 36 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: CLE 7 days · LV 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Antonio Pierce