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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 4 · Thu, Sep 26, 2024 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 4
It turned at Q2 9:25, 1st and 10, on CeeDee Lamb — 10.9 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Dallas Cowboys 20–15. Biggest swing: Q2 9:25, Cowboys +10.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:25 · 1st and 10
CeeDee Lamb
Cowboys
(9:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-88-C.Lamb, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
10.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Cowboys won this one — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Giants at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.32 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.04 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 15.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(9:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-88-C.Lamb, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Rico Dowdle's 15-yard touchdown catch with 2:13 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Rico Dowdle15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+77–39 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cowboyscategory by categoryGiants
Cowboys ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 50 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Giants’s 64 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 1, Giants 3.
Giants outgained Cowboys 304-294 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's blitz rate sent turned over: 50.0% in week 3 against 14.3% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.2 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 73.2% in week 3 against 51.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.7 points. · −0.6σ from their own normal
NYG's sack or hit rate turned over: 29.2% in week 3 against 10.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · −0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Cowboys0.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 50 snaps
Giants-5.0 ptsright on their number · −1.4 vs their -3.6 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 85%
Tendencies room →Cowboys51.3%inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±10.7 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 39 early downs
Giants54.5%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 57.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 50%
Tendencies room →Cowboys17.9%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Giants17.1%inside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 127%
Fourth Down room →Cowboys—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.5%.
Giants50.0%right on their number · +10.2 vs their 39.8%, and they swing ±22.4 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 60%
Tendencies room →Cowboys29.3%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 32.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Giants14.3%leaned — sat back · −14.9 vs their 29.2%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →Cowboys7.3%inside their normal wobble · −8.9 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Giants10.7%inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NYG's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 14.3%, 14.9 points below their season mean of 29.2% and 1.2 times their own 12.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYG
29/40, 281 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
4.4 expected points added · +10.3% completion over expected
Passing · DAL
22/27, 221 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
11.0 expected points added · +13.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
CeeDee Lamb banked 8.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee LambWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.6 | +8.7 | 84% | 89% | 31% | 38% | 3 car, 8 yd · 7/8, 98 yd, 1 TD |
| Malik NabersWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.1 | −0.7 | 90% | 93% | 39% | 42% | 1 car, -4 yd · 12/15, 115 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.1 | −1.5 | 65% | 83% | 37% | 20% | 11/14, 71 yd |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 16.7 | +8.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/27, 221 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, -1 yd |
| Rico DowdleRB · Committee Back | 13.1 | +5.5 | 45% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 11 car, 46 yd · 1/1, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Jake FergusonTE · Alpha Receiver | 11.9 | +1.4 | 73% | 89% | 27% | 15% | 7/7, 49 yd |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 9.5 | −4.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/40, 281 yd, 1 INT · 4 car, 3 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | −0.3 | 84% | 90% | 13% | 25% | 3/5, 56 yd |
| Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +0.9 | 70% | 79% | 12% | 13% | 3/3, 24 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 4.8 | −3.5 | 68% | 68% | 3% | 0% | 14 car, 24 yd · 1/1, 14 yd |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 4.2 | +0.8 | 52% | 50% | 8% | 8% | 2 car, 8 yd · 2/2, 14 yd |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB | 3.4 | −0.3 | 18% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 5 car, 19 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Tyrone TracyRB | 3.1 | −0.2 | 25% | 27% | 3% | 0% | 4 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 19 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −4.0 | 82% | 93% | 15% | 28% | 1/4, 16 yd |
| Theo JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.1 | 71% | 73% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Eric GrayRB | 0.1 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kavontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 42% | 27% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 10% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jalin HyattWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 19% | 22% | 3% | 15% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-88-C.Lamb, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q2 9:25 · Cowboys · 1st & 10 at DAL 45 · gained 55 · +4.82 EP · +15.3% win probability
152 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 77 yards from the NYG 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cowboys0
Giants3Cowboys6Giants3Cowboys7Giants3Cowboys7Giants6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Cowboys13Giants6Cowboys14Giants6Cowboys14Giants9Cowboys14Giants12Cowboys17Giants12How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Cowboys17Giants15Cowboys20Giants15Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cowboys at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 22/27 | 221 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +11.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | −2.1 |
| CeeDee Lamb |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 8 | 98 | 1 | 31% | +6.4 |
| Jake Ferguson | 7 | 7 | 49 | 0 | 27% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Kendricks | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarvion Overshown | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jourdan Lewis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 29/40 | 281 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_04_DAL_NYG
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -5.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45; the game landed 35 — under by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 8 |
| 2.7 |
| 0 |
| −1.0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −0.8 |
| +2.2 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 12% | +1.4 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 15% | −0.6 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 4% | +3.1 |
| Hunter Luepke | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 8% | +0.9 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.0 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Donovan Wilson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Osa Odighizuwa | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Booth | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marist Liufau | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Hooker | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Hunter Luepke | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mazi Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 14 | 24 | 1.7 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Daniel Jones | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Tyrone Tracy | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Malik Nabers | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 12 | 15 | 115 | 0 | 39% | +4.9 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 11 | 14 | 71 | 0 | 37% | −3.4 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 13% | +2.8 |
| Tyrone Tracy | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Theo Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah McFadden | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Nubin | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jason Pinnock | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cordale Flott | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Brian Burns | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Ojulari | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick McCloud | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Davidson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
