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Dallas Cowboys 20, Giants 15 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 9:25, 1st and 10, on CeeDee Lamb — 10.9 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:25 · 1st and 10
CeeDee Lamb
Cowboys
(9:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-88-C.Lamb, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Cowboys closed -5.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Dallas Cowboys 20–15. Biggest swing: Q2 9:25, Cowboys +10.9% win probability on one snap.
10.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dak PrescottGiantsQ1 13:57(13:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right.
10.2pts
Malik NabersGiantsQ4 13:41(13:41) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to DAL 37 for 8 yards (7-T.Diggs).
10.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Cowboys won this one — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Giants at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.32 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.04 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Cowboys154 of 162 plays carry both curves
(9:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-88-C.Lamb, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Swing −10.9 for GiantsExpected points −4.82 for GiantsThe model had Giants 19 points higher than the market did.play 51
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 9:25NYG +11% win prob(9:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-88-C.Lamb, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
4th · 13:41NYG +11% win prob(13:41) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to DAL 37 for 8 yards (7-T.Diggs).
1st · 12:19NYG +9% win prob(12:19) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at DAL 40 for 39 yards (28-M.Hooker).
3rd · 5:11NYG +7% win prob(5:11) 17-B.Aubrey 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
1st · 2:13NYG +7% win prob(2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 23-R.Dowdle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:53
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rico Dowdle's 15-yard touchdown catch with 2:13 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:07Greg Joseph·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+30–3
1st2:13Rico Dowdle·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+77–3
2nd11:14Greg Joseph·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+37–6
2nd9:25CeeDee Lamb·55-yd TD catch55-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+714–6
2nd1:10Greg Joseph·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+314–9
3rd8:44Greg Joseph·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+314–12
3rd5:11Brandon Aubrey·60-yd field goal60-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+317–12
4th11:16Greg Joseph·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+317–15
4th6:59Brandon Aubrey·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+320–15
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryGiants
Cowboys4–3Giants
294Total yards304
5.9Yards per play4.8
54%Success rate36%
30%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
2Explosive plays2
14First downs16
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Cowboys ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.21Cowboys: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.04Giants: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.39Cowboys: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.11Giants: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Cowboys: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.32Giants: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 50 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Giants’s 64 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 1, Giants 3.
NoteGiants outgained Cowboys 304-294 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's blitz rate sent turned over: 50.0% in week 3 against 14.3% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.2 points.
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 73.2% in week 3 against 51.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.7 points.
NYG's sack or hit rate turned over: 29.2% in week 3 against 10.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · −8.9 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Giants10.7%
inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteNYG's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 14.3%, 14.9 points below their season mean of 29.2% and 1.2 times their own 12.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-88-C.Lamb, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q2 9:25 · Cowboys · 1st & 10 at DAL 45 · gained 55 · +4.82 EP · +15.3% win probability
152 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 77 yards from the NYG 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
45%
Yards
596
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.3070%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.0682%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.0541%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.3020%
Giants1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5+0.34100%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.4260%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.4720%
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 36
Cowboys0Giants3
Field goal8 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Cowboys 34
Cowboys6Giants3
Cowboys7Giants3
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 5
The period ended6 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 34
2nd quarter48 plays
Cowboys7Giants6
Field goal9 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Cowboys 22
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Cowboys13Giants6
Cowboys14Giants6
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 45
Cowboys14Giants9
Field goal20 plays, from the Giants 28 to the Cowboys 16
Punt10 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 47
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Cowboys14Giants12
Field goal12 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Cowboys 3
Cowboys17Giants12
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Giants 32
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 32 to the Giants 38
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 18 to the Cowboys 19
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter44 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Cowboys17Giants15
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Cowboys 20
Cowboys20Giants15
Field goal11 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Giants 21
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 45
No good9 plays, from the Giants 45 to the Giants 32
Intercepted3 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
