For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Broncos171 of 182 plays carry both curves
(:51) 9-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
Swing −42.5 for JetsExpected points −1.70 for JetsThe model had Broncos 3 points higher than the market did.play 179
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:51DEN +43% win prob(:51) 9-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
4th · 1:31DEN +33% win prob(1:31) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
4th · 1:50DEN +23% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at NYJ 35 for -10 yards (6-P.Locke).
3rd · 3:13NYJ +17% win prob(3:13) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:05DEN +15% win prob(5:05) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at DEN 49 for -6 yards (sack split by 97-M.Roach and 52-J.Elliss).
4th · 1:08NYJ +13% win prob(1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 18-M.Williams. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 49 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 47-yard field goal with 8:59 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd14:54Greg Zuerlein·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+30–3
2nd0:02Greg Zuerlein·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+30–6
3rd3:13Courtland Sutton·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+77–6
4th13:38Greg Zuerlein·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+37–9
4th8:59Wil Lutz·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+310–9
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryJets
Broncos3–4Jets
190Total yards248
3.5Yards per play3.5
31%Success rate30%
21%Third-down rate24%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays6
11First downs14
0Sacks taken5
1Turnovers1
The read
Jets ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.28Broncos: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.28Jets: −0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.62Broncos: −0.62 expected points added per play
−0.31Jets: −0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Broncos: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.21Jets: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 54 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Jets’s 70 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 1, Jets 2.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's pass rate over expected, −15.5 pts, sat 15.8 points below their season number of +0.3 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.5 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
A 4.1-swing turn from week 3.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
NYJ's early-down pass rate turned over: 49.1% in week 3 against 67.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 34.3% in week 3 against 7.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Jets7.7%
inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
NoteDEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.5 pts, 15.8 points below their season mean of 0.3 pts and 2.5 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%61 snaps
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%61 snaps
63Alex PalczewskiT · Every snap100%61 snaps
74Ben PowersG · Every snap100%61 snaps
10Bo NixQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
60Luke WattenbergC · Every snap100%61 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Heavy rotation79%48 snaps
84Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Heavy rotation69%42 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Greg Zuerlein−35% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:51) 9-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
Q4 0:51 · Jets · 4th & 6 at DEN 32 · gained nothing · -1.70 EP · −35.2% win probability
169 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 92 yards from the DEN 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.22
Success rate
34%
Yards
434
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.3279%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.5062%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.2344%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.2113%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.3638%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Fumble lost4 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 1 to the Jets 2
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 34 to the Broncos 41
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 32
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Broncos 34 to the Broncos 1
2nd quarter48 plays
Broncos0Jets3
Field goal3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 33
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Jets 42
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Jets 44
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Jets 38
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 17 to the Broncos 31
Broncos0Jets6
Field goal12 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Broncos 13
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Jets 44
Punt10 plays, from the Jets 6 to the Jets 36
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Broncos6Jets6
Broncos7Jets6
Touchdown15 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Jets 8
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Broncos 29
4th quarter49 plays
Broncos7Jets9
Field goal4 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Broncos 22
Broncos10Jets9
Field goal9 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Jets 29
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Broncos 43
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 17 to the Broncos 23
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Jets 45
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 31
No good7 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Broncos 32
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
