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2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · MetLife Stadium

Denver BroncosWinner

10

New York Jets

9

NYJ -7.5 upsetU 39.5 ✓

Denver Broncos 10–9 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:51, DEN +43% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYJ ↑DEN ↓
Q4 · 0:51DEN 10 — NYJ 9NYJ ball · 4th & 6NYJ 51%

(:51) 9-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:51DEN +43% win prob(:51) 9-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
  2. Q4 · 1:31DEN +33% win prob(1:31) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
  3. Q4 · 1:50DEN +23% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at NYJ 35 for -10 yards (6-P.Locke).
  4. Q3 · 3:13NYJ +17% win prob(3:13) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 14:54NYJ Field goal

    (14:54) 9-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: DEN 0 — NYJ 3
  2. Q2 · 0:02NYJ Field goal

    (:02) 9-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: DEN 0 — NYJ 6
  3. Q3 · 3:13DEN Touchdown

    (3:13) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — NYJ 6
  4. Q4 · 13:38NYJ Field goal

    (13:38) 9-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — NYJ 9
  5. Q4 · 8:59DEN Field goal

    (8:59) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: DEN 10 — NYJ 9

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBroncosJets
Offensive plays5470
Total yards190248 (edge)
Yards per play3.53.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.28-0.28 (edge)
Success rate31% (edge)30%
Dropback rate48%73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.62-0.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.03 (edge)-0.21
Third downs3/144/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)66
First downs gained on snaps1114 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)5
Turnovers11

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Aaron RodgersQB

24/42, 225 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-12.1 expected points added · -7.4% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

12/25, 60 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-13.0 expected points added · -14.8% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

16 att, 77 yds, 0 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Jaleel McLaughlinRB

9 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Mike WilliamsWR

4/5 for 67 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

3/9 for 60 yds, 1 TD

36% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NYJNYJ 304-10:52Fumble
2DENNYJ 304-41:18Punt
3NYJNYJ 1411:53Punt
4DENDEN 484-11:28Punt
5NYJNYJ 204-21:37Punt
6DENDEN 34471:38Punt
7NYJNYJ 23482:21Punt
8DENDEN 47341:46Fumble
9NYJDEN 34692:16Field goal +3
10DENDEN 30521:36Punt
11NYJNYJ 24673:00Punt
12DENDEN 276242:40Punt
13NYJNYJ 157232:50Punt
14DENDEN 176142:58Punt
15NYJNYJ 279561:47Field goal +3
16DENDEN 307212:09Punt
17NYJNYJ 68404:16Punt
18DENDEN 1312735:27Touchdown +7
19NYJNYJ 2512684:34Field goal +3
20DENDEN 309414:39Field goal +3
21NYJNYJ 279244:53Punt
22DENDEN 17461:31Punt
23NYJNYJ 33620:45Turnover on downs
24DENNYJ 35430:19Missed field goal
25NYJNYJ 405130:40Missed field goal
26DENDEN 40200:47End of game

5 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 73 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bo Nix12/2560100-13.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Javonte Williams16774.801.1
Jaleel McLaughlin9465.101.5
Bo Nix530.60-1.6
Tyler Badie100.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Courtland Sutton3960136%3.2
Javonte Williams233012%-2.6
Michael Burton11304%-0.1
Jaleel McLaughlin11004%-0.6
Josh Reynolds02008%-2.7
Lil'Jordan Humphrey01004%-1.1
Greg Dulcich01004%-1.4
Nate Adkins11004%-0.4
Troy Franklin24-2016%-4.9
Tyler Badie22-408%-5.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Cody Barton360.000
P.J. Locke621.000
Ja'Quan McMillian420.001
Riley Moss510.001
Zach Allen410.000
Brandon Jones320.001
John Franklin-Myers121.000
Justin Strnad211.000
Nik Bonitto121.000
Jonah Elliss120.500

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers24/42225005-12.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Braelon Allen8344.301.3
Aaron Rodgers5265.20-0.6
Breece Hall1040.40-5.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Williams4567012%6.6
Allen Lazard5858020%0.1
Garrett Wilson5841020%-4.3
Tyler Conklin4817020%-3.0
Breece Hall2514012%-2.3
Braelon Allen111202%1.3
Jeremy Ruckert221005%0.5
Xavier Gipson146010%-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tony Adams360.000
Chuck Clark250.000
Quincy Williams420.000
Jamien Sherwood310.000
Ahmad Gardner310.000
D.J. Reed210.002
Chazz Surratt200.000
Micheal Clemons110.000
Quinnen Williams100.000
Javon Kinlaw100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NYJ -7.5
Closing total
39.5
DEN moneyline
+330
NYJ moneyline
-425

Jets closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 19 — under by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
67°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
DEN 7 days · NYJ 10 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Robert Saleh