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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · NRG Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 4
It turned at Q4 0:22, 2nd and 1, on Dare Ogunbowale — 26.2 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Houston Texans 24–20. Biggest swing: Q4 0:22, Texans +26.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:22 · 2nd and 1
Dare Ogunbowale
Texans
(:22) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
26.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Texans won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Jaguars at 4 of 12 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.27 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.36 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.04 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.01 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(:22) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dare Ogunbowale's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:22 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Dare Ogunbowale1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom C.J. StroudLead never changed again+720–248 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jaguarscategory by categoryTexans
Texans ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 57 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Texans’s 68 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Texans 4.
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's blitz rate sent, 2.2%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 11.3 points clear of the next team along.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
HOU's blitz rate sent turned over: 12.5% in week 3 against 37.1% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
HOU's sack or hit rate turned over: 21.9% in week 3 against 8.6% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
JAX's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.9% in week 3 against 13.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.0 points. · +0.8σ from their own normal
HOU's play-action rate turned over: 7.8% in week 3 against 26.1% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points. · +0.4σ from their own normal
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 3 against 25.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.7 points. · −0.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Jaguars3.4 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.0 vs their -3.6 pts, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+1.47× that swing) · 57 snaps
Texans-4.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 1.2 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 83%
Tendencies room →Jaguars54.5%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 44 early downs
Texans60.0%right on their number · +3.9 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 49%
Tendencies room →Jaguars34.3%leaned — faked the run · +11.7 vs their 22.6%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Texans26.1%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 100%
Fourth Down room →Jaguars25.0%right on their number · −6.4 vs their 31.4%, and they swing ±26.7 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Texans—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 51%
Tendencies room →Jaguars2.2%leaned — sat back · −12.9 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.75× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Texans37.1%leaned — sent pressure · +12.2 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+1.20× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 32%
Tendencies room →Jaguars13.0%inside their normal wobble · +3.0 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Texans8.6%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
JAX's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 2.2%, 12.9 points below their season mean of 15.0% and 1.7 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
27/40, 345 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
14.3 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
18/33, 169 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-1.4 expected points added · -7.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Dare Ogunbowale banked 5.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico CollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 33.1 | +2.0 | 84% | 98% | 38% | 46% | 12/15, 151 yd, 1 TD |
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 23.5 | −1.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/40, 345 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 17 yd |
| Brian ThomasWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.9 | +3.0 | 76% | 77% | 28% | 35% | 1 car, 13 yd · 6/9, 86 yd, 1 TD |
| Christian KirkWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.1 | −2.2 | 78% | 83% | 38% | 47% | 7/12, 61 yd, 1 TD |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Featured Receiver | 18.5 | +2.8 | 83% | 89% | 23% | 24% | 1 car, 6 yd, 1 TD · 5/9, 69 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB · Receiving Back | 15.4 | +5.7 | 39% | 52% | 10% | 3% | 2 car, 7 yd · 4/4, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 14.8 | −6.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/33, 169 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 5 yd |
| Tank BigsbyRB | 9.0 | +2.4 | 29% | 23% | 0% | — | 7 car, 90 yd |
| Travis EtienneRB · Committee Back | 7.0 | −2.3 | 52% | 51% | 6% | 0% | 11 car, 50 yd · 1/2, 10 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | −1.4 | 87% | 85% | 13% | 12% | 3/5, 34 yd |
| Cam AkersRB · Committee Back | 5.3 | −2.0 | 40% | 28% | 0% | — | 13 car, 53 yd |
| Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | +0.7 | 72% | 69% | 9% | 3% | 3/3, 19 yd |
| Cade StoverTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +1.7 | 32% | 30% | 3% | 5% | 1/1, 27 yd |
| Robert WoodsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −3.2 | 72% | 80% | 8% | 13% | 1/3, 10 yd |
| J.J. TaylorRB | 1.8 | −3.4 | 21% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 6 car, 18 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| John MetchieWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.2 | 12% | 7% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 0.8 | −9.8 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Steven SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 0.0 | −0.9 | 21% | 26% | 0% | — | 2 car, 0 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 47% | 37% | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:22) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:22 · Texans · 2nd & goal at JAX 1 · gained 1 · +2.00 EP · +31.9% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 178 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 87 yards from the JAX 12 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jaguars6
Texans0Jaguars7Texans0Jaguars7Texans6Jaguars7Texans7Jaguars10Texans7Jaguars10Texans13Jaguars10Texans14Jaguars13Texans14Jaguars13Texans17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Jaguars19Texans17Jaguars20Texans17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Jaguars20Texans23Jaguars20Texans24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jaguars at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 18/33 | 169 | 2 | 0 | 1 | −1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Bigsby | 7 | 90 | 12.9 | 0 | +5.5 |
| Travis Etienne | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Brian Thomas |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas | 6 | 9 | 86 | 1 | 28% | +5.4 |
| Christian Kirk | 7 | 12 | 61 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ventrell Miller | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montaric Brown | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Chad Muma |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 27/40 | 345 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +14.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_04_JAX_HOU
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 44 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 13 |
| 13.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | −4.2 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| 38% |
| +1.2 |
| Brenton Strange | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 9% | +0.4 |
| Travis Etienne | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | −1.3 |
| Luke Farrell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 5 | -2 | 0 | 16% | −2.5 |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ronald Darby | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Antonio Johnson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andre Cisco | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarrian Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Hamilton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 | −2.9 |
| J.J. Taylor | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| C.J. Stroud | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 1 | +1.9 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 12 | 15 | 151 | 1 | 38% | +9.2 |
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 9 | 69 | 0 | 23% | −0.6 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 | 10% | +8.1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 13% | −0.5 |
| Cade Stover | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 3% | +2.7 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 8% | −1.1 |
| John Metchie | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| J.J. Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry To'oTo'o | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamari Lassiter | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calen Bullock | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tim Settle | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Stingley | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jalen Pitre | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eric Murray | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Anderson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Barnett | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
