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2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · NRG Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

20

Houston TexansWinner

24

HOU -5.5 no coverU 44.5 ✓Dome

Houston Texans 24–20. Biggest swing: Q4 0:22, HOU +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3HOU ↑JAX ↓
Q4 · 0:22JAX 20 — HOU 23HOU ball · 2nd & 1HOU 68%

(:22) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:22HOU +26% win prob(:22) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 12:56HOU +19% win prob(12:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 82-S.Sims MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-20-D.Thomas at HOU 2.
  3. Q4 · 11:21HOU +19% win prob(11:21) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to JAX 36 for 31 yards (22-J.Jones).
  4. Q4 · 2:47HOU +17% win prob(2:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins to JAX 27 for 26 yards (51-V.Miller).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:48JAX Touchdown

    (12:48) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-B.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — HOU 0
  2. Q1 · 7:29HOU Touchdown

    (7:29) (Shotgun) 1-S.Diggs scrambles left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — HOU 7
  3. Q1 · 2:45JAX Field goal

    (2:45) 39-C.Little 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 10 — HOU 7
  4. Q2 · 7:23HOU Touchdown

    (7:23) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 10 — HOU 14
  5. Q2 · 3:54JAX Field goal

    (3:54) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 13 — HOU 14
  6. Q2 · 0:05HOU Field goal

    (:05) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: JAX 13 — HOU 17
  7. Q3 · 6:21JAX Touchdown

    (6:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 20 — HOU 17
  8. Q4 · 0:22HOU Touchdown

    (:22) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 20 — HOU 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsTexans
Offensive plays5768
Total yards314435 (edge)
Yards per play5.56.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.010.16 (edge)
Success rate44%47% (edge)
Dropback rate61%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.040.36 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.02 (edge)-0.27
Third downs4/127/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)79 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1624 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers00

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

27/40, 345 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.3 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

18/33, 169 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-1.4 expected points added · -7.8% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Tank BigsbyRB

7 att, 90 yds, 0 TD

5.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Cam AkersRB

13 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

12/15 for 151 yds, 1 TD

38% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Brian ThomasWR

6/9 for 86 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 307152:12Punt
2JAXHOU 2220:04Touchdown +7
3HOUHOU 3011705:21Touchdown +7
4JAXJAX 2310594:42Field goal +3
5HOUHOU 306282:23Punt
6JAXJAX 10460:32Punt
7HOUHOU 2613797:27Touchdown +7
8JAXJAX 278393:30Field goal +3
9HOUHOU 3012843:46Field goal +3
10JAXJAX 30200:03End of half
11HOUHOU 30540:59Punt
12JAXJAX 168262:53Punt
13HOUHOU 30430:52Punt
14JAXJAX 268744:00Touchdown +7
15HOUHOU 306171:44Punt
16JAXJAX 129874:35Turnover on downs
17HOUHOU 110686:26Punt
18JAXJAX 97142:57Punt
19HOUHOU 146181:43Punt
20JAXJAX 28410:57Punt
21HOUHOU 3110642:36Touchdown +7
22JAXJAX 103-90:18End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 87 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence18/33169201-1.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tank Bigsby79012.905.5
Travis Etienne11504.500.1
Brian Thomas11313.000.8
Trevor Lawrence351.70-4.2
D'Ernest Johnson200.00-1.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brian Thomas6986128%5.4
Christian Kirk71261138%1.2
Brenton Strange331909%0.4
Travis Etienne121006%-1.3
Luke Farrell01003%-0.9
Gabe Davis15-2016%-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ventrell Miller730.000
Montaric Brown530.003
Chad Muma350.000
Ronald Darby610.001
Antonio Johnson400.001
Andre Cisco310.000
Jarrian Jones210.000
Josh Hines-Allen110.000
Davon Hamilton110.000
Daniel Thomas110.000

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud27/4034520214.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Cam Akers13534.10-2.9
J.J. Taylor6183.00-1.4
C.J. Stroud3175.700.4
Dare Ogunbowale273.50-1.0
Stefon Diggs166.011.9
Steven Sims100.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Nico Collins1215151138%9.2
Stefon Diggs5969023%-0.6
Dare Ogunbowale4447110%8.1
Dalton Schultz3534013%-0.5
Cade Stover112703%2.7
Robert Woods131008%-1.1
John Metchie11703%-0.4
J.J. Taylor01003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Henry To'oTo'o330.000
Kamari Lassiter510.000
Calen Bullock320.001
Tim Settle400.000
Derek Stingley310.002
Jalen Pitre400.001
Eric Murray311.001
Azeez Al-Shaair300.000
Will Anderson200.000
Derek Barnett200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
HOU -5.5
Closing total
44.5
JAX moneyline
+195
HOU moneyline
-238

Texans closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 44 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
JAX 6 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs DeMeco Ryans

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.