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Jacksonville Jaguars 20 at Houston Texans 24. Final.
Texans -5.5 no coverU 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 4
Houston Texans 24, Jaguars 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:22, 2nd and 1, on Dare Ogunbowale — 26.2 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:22 · 2nd and 1
Dare Ogunbowale
Texans
(:22) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Texans closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Houston Texans 24–20. Biggest swing: Q4 0:22, Texans +26.2% win probability on one snap.
26.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetJaguarsQ1 12:56(12:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 82-S.Sims MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-20-D.Thomas at HOU 2.
19.1pts
Dare OgunbowaleTexansQ4 11:21(11:21) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to JAX 36 for 31 yards (22-J.Jones).
18.6pts
What separated them
Third down
Texans won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Jaguars at 4 of 12 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.27 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.36 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.04 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.01 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Jaguars167 of 178 plays carry both curves
(:22) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +26.2 for TexansExpected points +2.00 for TexansThe model had Jaguars 7 points higher than the market did.play 172
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:22HOU +26% win prob(:22) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:56HOU +19% win prob(12:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 82-S.Sims MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-20-D.Thomas at HOU 2.
4th · 11:21HOU +19% win prob(11:21) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to JAX 36 for 31 yards (22-J.Jones).
4th · 2:47HOU +17% win prob(2:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins to JAX 27 for 26 yards (51-V.Miller).
3rd · 1:54HOU +16% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 4-T.Bigsby right guard pushed ob at HOU 4 for 58 yards (21-C.Bullock).
4th · 0:30JAX +15% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles up the middle to JAX 1 for 1 yard (94-M.Smith, 48-C.Muma).
3rd · 6:21
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dare Ogunbowale's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:22 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Texans ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Jaguars: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.16Texans: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Jaguars: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.36Texans: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Jaguars: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.27Texans: −0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 57 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Texans’s 68 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Texans 4.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
JAX's blitz rate sent, 2.2%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 11.3 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 3.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
HOU's blitz rate sent turned over: 12.5% in week 3 against 37.1% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
HOU's sack or hit rate turned over: 21.9% in week 3 against 8.6% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
JAX's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.9% in week 3 against 13.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.0 points.
HOU's play-action rate turned over: 7.8% in week 3 against 26.1% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 3 against 25.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.0 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Texans8.6%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteJAX's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 2.2%, 12.9 points below their season mean of 15.0% and 1.7 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
77Anton HarrisonT · Every snap100%58 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%58 snaps
76Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%58 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
65Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%58 snaps
68Brandon ScherffG · Every snap100%58 snaps
0Gabe DavisWR · Heavy rotation79%46 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Heavy rotation78%45 snaps
7Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Heavy rotation76%44 snaps
85Brenton StrangeTE · Heavy rotation72%42 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Heavy rotation52%30 snaps
89Luke FarrellTE · Rotational47%27 snaps
4Tank BigsbyRB · Rotational29%17 snaps
11Parker WashingtonWR · Situational24%14 snaps
2D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Situational21%12 snaps
12Devin DuvernayWR · Situational10%6 snaps
15Tim JonesWR · Situational9%5 snaps
81Josiah DeguaraTE · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Myles ColeDEJordan JeffersonDTDevin LloydILBDarnell SavageSSCole Van LanenTJavon FosterTEvan EngramTE
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Stroud pass+32% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:22) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:22 · Texans · 2nd & goal at JAX 1 · gained 1 · +2.00 EP · +31.9% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 87 yards from the JAX 12 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
45%
Yards
748
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.2474%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.1368%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.1431%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.0944%
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 45
Jaguars6Texans0
Jaguars7Texans0
Touchdown2 plays
Jaguars7Texans6
Jaguars7Texans7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Jaguars 6
Jaguars10Texans7
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Texans 23
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Jaguars 40
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt2 plays
Jaguars10Texans13
Jaguars10Texans14
Touchdown16 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Jaguars 3
Jaguars13Texans14
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 27 to the Texans 34
Jaguars13Texans17
Field goal16 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Jaguars 11
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 34
Punt9 plays, from the Jaguars 16 to the Jaguars 46
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 33
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Jaguars19Texans17
Jaguars20Texans17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Texans 8
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 47
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
The period ended9 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Texans 1
4th quarter51 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Turnover on downs1 play
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Punt13 plays, from the Texans 1 to the Jaguars 36
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 9 to the Jaguars 29
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 14 to the Texans 32
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Jaguars 29
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Jaguars20Texans23
Jaguars20Texans24
Touchdown14 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Jaguars 1
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
