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2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · SoFi Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

17

Los Angeles Chargers

10

KC -7.5 no coverU 41.5 ✓Dome

Kansas City Chiefs 17–10. Biggest swing: Q1 6:16, KC +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LACKC
Q1 · 6:16KC 0LAC 7KC ball · 1st & 10KC 61%

(6:16) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 7-K.Fulton at KC 49. 7-K.Fulton to KC 20 for 29 yards (4-R.Rice). FUMBLES (4-R.Rice), RECOVERED by KC-52-C.Humphrey at KC 20. KC-4-R.Ric

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 6:16KC +17% win prob(6:16) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 7-K.Fulton at KC 49. 7-K.Fulton to KC 20 for 29 yards (4-R.Rice). FUMBLES (4-R.Rice), RECOVERED by KC-52-C.Humphrey at KC 20. KC-4-R.Rice was injured during the play. The Replay Official reviewed the ball was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 7-K.Fulton at KC 49. 7-K.Fulton to KC 20 for 29 yards (4-R.Rice). FUMBLES (4-R.Rice), ball out of bounds at KC 20.
  2. Q2 · 4:14LAC +12% win prob(4:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 1-X.Worthy for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-7-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
  3. Q3 · 13:52LAC +10% win prob(13:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey pushed ob at KC 33 for 37 yards (6-B.Cook) [95-C.Jones].
  4. Q4 · 13:37KC +9% win prob(13:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 88-H.Hurst [97-F.Anudike-Uzomah]. Penalty on LAC-62-S.Mustipher, Offensive Holding, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:21LAC Touchdown

    (6:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-M.Herring]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 0LAC 7
  2. Q1 · 3:58LAC Field goal

    (3:58) 11-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: KC 0LAC 10
  3. Q2 · 4:14KC Touchdown

    (4:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 1-X.Worthy for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-7-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 7LAC 10
  4. Q3 · 6:30KC Field goal

    (6:30) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: KC 10LAC 10
  5. Q4 · 6:08KC Touchdown

    (6:08) 34-S.Perine up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 17LAC 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChiefsChargers
Offensive plays5553
Total yards332 (edge)224
Yards per play6.0 (edge)4.2
Expected points added / play-0.09 (edge)-0.21
Success rate47% (edge)28%
Dropback rate62%55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.04 (edge)-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.17 (edge)-0.39
Third downs9/15 (edge)4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)5 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps14 (edge)12
Sacks taken32 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.21.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

19/29, 245 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-1.6 expected points added · -6.7% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

16/27, 179 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.0 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

14 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

J.K. DobbinsRB

14 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

-6.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

7/9 for 89 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · -1.1 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Xavier WorthyWR

3/4 for 73 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1KCKC 305432:08Fumble
2LACLAC 2611746:36Touchdown +7
3KCKC 30200:10Interception
4LACKC 204132:13Field goal +3
5KCKC 305-21:28Punt
6LACLAC 195142:41Punt
7KCKC 354141:26Punt
8LACLAC 6491:56Punt
9KCKC 3510155:41Punt
10LACLAC 2411:27Punt
11KCKC 462540:08Touchdown +7
12LACLAC 305-80:54Punt
13KCKC 2410493:12Missed field goal
14LACLAC 307423:14Missed field goal
15KCKC 4510425:20Field goal +3
16LACLAC 3015677:54Turnover on downs
17KCKC 39444:08Punt
18LACLAC 15411:08Punt
19KCKC 406542:12Touchdown +7
20LACLAC 307112:49Punt
21KCKC 46193:15End of game

5 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 74 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes19/29245113-1.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kareem Hunt14694.901.1
Samaje Perine5142.811.7
Patrick Mahomes5122.400.3
Carson Steele263.00-6.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Travis Kelce7989032%-1.1
Xavier Worthy3473114%5.4
Noah Gray4440014%0.8
Justin Watson2327011%2.4
Kareem Hunt2316011%0.6
Carson Steele130011%-1.8
Skyy Moore02007%-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Drue Tranquill530.000
Trent McDuffie330.001
Bryan Cook410.000
Nick Bolton310.000
Chris Jones312.000
George Karlaftis210.000
Leo Chenal300.000
Jaylen Watson110.002
Chamarri Conner200.000
Felix Anudike-Uzomah110.000

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert16/27179102-2.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
J.K. Dobbins14322.30-6.7
Gus Edwards6193.20-0.9
Quentin Johnston144.000.1
Justin Herbert300.00-1.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ladd McConkey5767126%3.0
Josh Palmer3436015%1.8
J.K. Dobbins3430015%0.9
Will Dissly2324011%0.7
Quentin Johnston159019%-1.6
Scott Matlock11704%0.7
Hayden Hurst136011%-5.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Elijah Molden330.000
Daiyan Henley330.000
Tarheeb Still320.500
Denzel Perryman320.000
Khalil Mack230.001
Asante Samuel400.000
Tuli Tuipulotu130.001
Troy Dye120.500
Otito Ogbonnia120.001
Poona Ford110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -7.5
Closing total
41.5
KC moneyline
-345
LAC moneyline
+275

Chiefs closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 27 — under by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
KC 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Jim Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.