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2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · Soldier Field

Los Angeles Rams

18

Chicago BearsWinner

24

CHI -3 ✓O 40 ✓16 mph wind

Chicago Bears 24–18. Biggest swing: Q2 6:51, LA +18% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHI ↑LA ↓
Q2 · 6:51LA 6 — CHI 0LA ball · 1st & 10LA 70%

(6:51) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 13 for -7 yards (98-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (98-M.Sweat) [98-M.Sweat], RECOVERED by CHI-6-K.Gordon at LA 16.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 6:51LA +18% win prob(6:51) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 13 for -7 yards (98-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (98-M.Sweat) [98-M.Sweat], RECOVERED by CHI-6-K.Gordon at LA 16.
  2. Q2 · 5:52CHI +11% win prob(5:52) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 13-K.Allen. PENALTY on LA-27-T.White, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at LA 15 - No Play.
  3. Q2 · 1:05LA +11% win prob(1:05) 16-J.Karty 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
  4. Q3 · 2:43CHI +9% win prob(2:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 4:06LA Field goal

    (4:06) 16-J.Karty 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 3 — CHI 0
  2. Q2 · 13:09LA Field goal

    (13:09) 16-J.Karty 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 6 — CHI 0
  3. Q2 · 5:46CHI Touchdown

    (5:46) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 23-R.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 6 — CHI 7
  4. Q2 · 0:13CHI Field goal

    (:13) 8-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: LA 6 — CHI 10
  5. Q3 · 8:54LA Field goal

    (8:54) 16-J.Karty 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 9 — CHI 10
  6. Q3 · 2:43CHI Touchdown

    (2:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 9 — CHI 17
  7. Q4 · 15:00LA Touchdown

    (15:00) 23-K.Williams left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: LA 15 — CHI 17
  8. Q4 · 12:33CHI Touchdown

    (12:33) (No Huddle) 4-D.Swift left guard for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LA 15 — CHI 24
  9. Q4 · 8:52LA Field goal

    (8:52) 16-J.Karty 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 18 — CHI 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRamsBears
Offensive plays5852
Total yards323 (edge)266
Yards per play5.6 (edge)5.1
Expected points added / play0.040.08 (edge)
Success rate52% (edge)50%
Dropback rate57%50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.070.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.18 (edge)0.09
Third downs5/11 (edge)3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)5 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps20 (edge)14
Sacks taken33
Turnovers20 (edge)

Rams outgained Bears 323–266 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

20/29, 224 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-2.3 expected points added · -0.0% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

17/23, 157 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.1 expected points added · +10.3% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

19 att, 94 yds, 1 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

16 att, 93 yds, 1 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Tutu AtwellWR

4/6 for 82 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

7/7 for 72 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 257193:36Punt
2LALA 513687:23Field goal +3
3CHICHI 305122:05Punt
4LALA 268413:51Field goal +3
5CHICHI 3010196:14Punt
6LALA 201-40:09Fumble
7CHILA 16421:00Touchdown +7
8LALA 3012554:41Missed field goal
9CHICHI 338450:52Field goal +3
10LALA 30200:09End of half
11LALA 3013496:10Field goal +3
12CHICHI 2614746:13Touchdown +7
13LALA 308702:42Touchdown +6
14CHICHI 307752:29Touchdown +7
15LALA 308363:39Field goal +3
16CHICHI 30512:22Punt
17LALA 8482:11Punt
18CHICHI 387193:11Punt
19LALA 8100:07Interception
20CHILA 18200:56End of game

9 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 75 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford20/29224013-2.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyren Williams19944.913.8
Ronnie Rivers6264.300.7
Matthew Stafford1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tutu Atwell4682021%5.6
Jordan Whittington6862028%3.9
Demarcus Robinson2337010%-1.5
Colby Parkinson4733024%1.0
Kyren Williams4410014%-1.7
Tyler Johnson01003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Christian Rozeboom650.000
Troy Reeder420.000
Quentin Lake421.000
Braden Fiske221.000
Kamren Kinchens130.000
Jared Verse310.000
Kamren Curl210.000
Byron Young120.000
Neville Gallimore110.000
Cobie Durant110.000

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams17/231571032.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Andre Swift16935.811.1
Roschon Johnson7263.711.2
Caleb Williams5122.40-3.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D'Andre Swift7772032%4.1
Cole Kmet3334014%1.4
D.J. Moore3622127%1.7
Keenan Allen3319014%1.1
Rome Odunze1310014%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jaquan Brisker841.011
T.J. Edwards360.000
Kyler Gordon430.000
Kevin Byard420.000
Tyrique Stevenson320.000
Jaylon Johnson300.000
Tremaine Edmunds200.000
Montez Sweat201.001
Gervon Dexter111.000
Austin Booker200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CHI -3
Closing total
40
LA moneyline
+136
CHI moneyline
-162

Bears closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 40; the game landed 42 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
70°F, wind 16 mph
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
LA 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Matt Eberflus

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.