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Chicago Bears 24, Rams 18 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 6:51, 1st and 10, on Matthew Stafford — 17.8 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 6:51 · 1st and 10
Matthew Stafford
Bears
(6:51) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 13 for -7 yards (98-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (98-M.Sweat) [98-M.Sweat], RECOVERED by CHI-6-K.Gordon at LA 16.
16 mph wind
Bears closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.
Chicago Bears 24–18. Biggest swing: Q2 6:51, Bears +17.8% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
17.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Caleb WilliamsBearsQ2 5:52(5:52) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 13-K.Allen. PENALTY on LA-27-T.White, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at LA 15 - No Play.
10.9pts
Joshua KartyBearsQ2 1:05(1:05) 16-J.Karty 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
10.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bears won this one — no giveaways, against Rams at 2 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 11 on third down, against Bears at 3 of 9 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Bears at 3 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Bears won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Rams at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Rams154 of 164 plays carry both curves
Q2 · 6:51Rams 6 — Bears 0LA ball · 1st & 10LA 70%
Rams 70%Bears 30%
(6:51) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 13 for -7 yards (98-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (98-M.Sweat) [98-M.Sweat], RECOVERED by CHI-6-K.Gordon at LA 16.
Swing +17.8 for BearsExpected points +5.17 for BearsThe model had Rams 3 points higher than the market did.play 55
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 6:51LA +18% win prob(6:51) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 13 for -7 yards (98-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (98-M.Sweat) [98-M.Sweat], RECOVERED by CHI-6-K.Gordon at LA 16.
2nd · 5:52CHI +11% win prob(5:52) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 13-K.Allen. PENALTY on LA-27-T.White, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at LA 15 - No Play.
2nd · 1:05LA +11% win prob(1:05) 16-J.Karty 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
3rd · 2:43CHI +9% win prob(2:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:01CHI +8% win prob(13:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 85-C.Kmet to LA 36 for 22 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).
4th · 12:33CHI +8% win prob(12:33) (No Huddle) 4-D.Swift left guard for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Roschon Johnson's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 5:46 left in the 2nd put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:06Joshua Karty·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+33–0
2nd13:09Joshua Karty·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+36–0
2nd5:46Roschon Johnson·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+76–7
2nd0:13Cairo Santos·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+36–10
3rd8:54Joshua Karty·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+39–10
4th8:52Joshua Karty·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+318–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryBears
Rams6–2Bears
323Total yards266
5.6Yards per play5.1
52%Success rate50%
45%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays3
20First downs14
3Sacks taken3
2Turnovers0
The read
Rams ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bears, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Rams: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.08Bears: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Rams: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.08Bears: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Rams: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.09Bears: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 58 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Bears’s 52 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Rams 4, Bears 5.
NoteRams outgained Bears 323-266 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LA's play-action rate, 45.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 4.5 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Bears18.2%
right on their number · +0.9 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteCHI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 26.9%, 8.6 points above their season mean of 18.3% and 1.5 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Joshua Karty−15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:05) 16-J.Karty 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Q2 1:05 · Rams · 4th & 15 at CHI 25 · gained nothing · -3.23 EP · −15.4% win probability
152 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 74 yards from the CHI 26 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
50%
Yards
586
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.0659%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.0663%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.1444%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 44
Rams3Bears0
Field goal13 plays, from the Rams 5 to the Bears 27
Punt6 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Rams 42
2nd quarter54 plays
Rams6Bears0
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 47 to the Bears 18
Punt15 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Rams 44
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost1 play
Rams6Bears6
Rams6Bears7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Rams 1
No good13 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Bears 15
Rams6Bears10
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Rams 17
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Rams9Bears10
Field goal14 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Bears 7
Rams9Bears16
Rams9Bears17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Rams 9
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Bears 8
4th quarter43 plays
Rams15Bears17
Touchdown2 plays
Rams15Bears23
Rams15Bears24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Rams 36
Rams18Bears24
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Bears 34
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 38
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 8 to the Rams 16
The period ended10 plays, from the Bears 38 to the Rams 43
Intercepted1 play
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bears -3
Closing total
40
Rams moneyline
+136
Bears moneyline
-162
Bears closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 40; the game landed 42 — over by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 66°F at kickoff; windy at 16 mph out of the north; light drizzle.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Rams 7 days · Bears 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Matt Eberflus
NoteWind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
4th · 15:00
CHI +7% win prob
(15:00) 23-K.Williams left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 15:00CHI +6% win prob(15:00) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 5-T.Atwell to CHI 40 for 18 yards (29-T.Stevenson). PENALTY on CHI-9-J.Brisker, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 40.
