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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Minnesota Vikings 31 at Green Bay Packers 29. Final.
Packers -2.5 upsetO 44 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 4
Minnesota Vikings 31, Packers 29 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q1 12:43, 3rd and 14, on Jalen Nailor — 12.4 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:43 · 3rd and 14
Jalen Nailor
Vikings
(12:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 83-J.Nailor to GB 29 for 31 yards (21-E.Stokes; 29-X.McKinney).
Packers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Minnesota Vikings 31–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 12:43, Vikings +12.4% win probability on one snap.
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brayden NarvesonVikingsQ1 6:52(6:52) 44-B.Narveson 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
8.2pts
Byron MurphyVikingsQ4 6:20(6:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right intended for 13-D.Wicks INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN -4. Touchback.
12.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — 2 giveaways, against Packers at 4 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Packers at -0.13 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Vikings at 3 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Vikings181 of 193 plays carry both curves
(12:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 83-J.Nailor to GB 29 for 31 yards (21-E.Stokes; 29-X.McKinney).
Swing −12.4 for PackersExpected points −4.00 for PackersModel and market agree here.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:43GB +12% win prob(12:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 83-J.Nailor to GB 29 for 31 yards (21-E.Stokes; 29-X.McKinney).
4th · 6:20MIN +12% win prob(6:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right intended for 13-D.Wicks INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN -4. Touchback.
1st · 6:52MIN +8% win prob(6:52) 44-B.Narveson 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
2nd · 0:20GB +7% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:32GB +7% win prob(5:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:50GB +7% win prob(6:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 13-D.Wicks pushed ob at MIN 34 for 36 yards (7-B.Murphy).
1st · 11:59
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jordan Addison's 29-yard touchdown catch with 11:59 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:59Jordan Addison·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+77–0
1st1:41Josh Oliver·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+714–0
2nd5:32Justin Jefferson·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+728–0
2nd0:20Jayden Reed·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+728–7
4th11:42Dontayvion Wicks·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+728–14
4th10:22Tucker Kraft·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love · two-point good+828–22
4th6:53Will Reichard·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+331–22
4th1:02Dontayvion Wicks·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+731–29
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryPackers
Vikings3–6Packers
377Total yards467
6.2Yards per play6.2
51%Success rate40%
36%Third-down rate33%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
8Explosive plays9
19First downs23
2Sacks taken1
2Turnovers4
The read
Packers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Vikings: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.12Packers: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.29Vikings: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.13Packers: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.27Vikings: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.10Packers: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 61 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Packers’s 75 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 7, Packers 5.
NotePackers outgained Vikings 467-377 but lost the turnover battle 4-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's play-action rate, 3.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 4.2 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 3.
57 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 28.9% in week 3 against 71.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Packers9.1%
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteGB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 71.7%, 27.4 points above their season mean of 44.2% and 1.9 times their own 14.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
75Brian O'NeillT · Every snap100%68 snaps
64Blake BrandelG · Every snap100%68 snaps
67Ed IngramG · Every snap100%68 snaps
71Christian DarrisawT · Every snap100%68 snaps
56Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%68 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
18Justin JeffersonWR · Full-time90%61 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Full-time82%56 snaps
84Josh OliverTE · Heavy rotation68%46 snaps
3Jordan AddisonWR · Heavy rotation66%45 snaps
86Johnny MundtTE · Heavy rotation60%41 snaps
4Brandon PowellWR · Rotational34%23 snaps
11Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational32%22 snaps
30C.J. HamFB · Rotational25%17 snaps
83Jalen NailorWR · Situational21%14 snaps
32Ty ChandlerRB · Situational12%8 snaps
85Robert TonyanTE · Situational10%7 snaps
Inactive · 7
Fabian MoreauCBDwight McGlothernCBLevi Drake RodriguezDEIvan Pace Jr.ILBBrett RypienQBWalter RouseTTrishton JacksonWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass+15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 83-J.Nailor to GB 29 for 31 yards (21-E.Stokes; 29-X.McKinney).
Q1 12:43 · Vikings · 3rd & 14 at MIN 40 · gained 31 · +4.00 EP · +15.2% win probability
179 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 193 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 188. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 96 yards from the GB 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
193 of 193 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
193
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
46%
Yards
841
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59+0.0778%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0170%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.8263%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.3833%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.1614%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
193 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
193 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Vikings6Packers0
Vikings7Packers0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Packers 29
No good13 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Vikings 14
Vikings13Packers0
Vikings14Packers0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Packers 1
Intercepted4 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 33
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter55 plays
Vikings20Packers0
Vikings21Packers0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 37 to the Packers 7
No good9 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Vikings 21
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 39 to the Vikings 41
Intercepted3 plays, from the Packers 6 to the Packers 19
Vikings27Packers0
Vikings28Packers0
Touchdown3 plays
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Vikings 34
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Vikings 43
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 16 to the Packers 23
Vikings28Packers6
Vikings28Packers7
Touchdown4 plays
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 36
Intercepted7 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Packers 20
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 2 to the Packers 6
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 44 to the Packers 43
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Vikings 32
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Vikings 42
The period ended3 plays, from the Packers 11 to the Packers 23
4th quarter57 plays
Vikings28Packers13
Vikings28Packers14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Vikings 6
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 32
Vikings28Packers20
Vikings28Packers22
Touchdown3 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 13
Vikings31Packers22
Field goal8 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Packers 10
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Vikings 34
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 24
Fumble lost2 plays
The period ended13 plays, from the Packers 42 to the Packers 4
Vikings31Packers28
Vikings31Packers29
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 4 to the Vikings 17
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
