2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · Lambeau Field

Minnesota VikingsWinner

Green Bay Packers

GB -2.5 upsetO 44 ✓15 mph windPackers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Minnesota Vikings 31–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 12:43, GB +12% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:43MIN 0 — GB 0MIN ball · 3rd & 14GB 60%

(12:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 83-J.Nailor to GB 29 for 31 yards (21-E.Stokes; 29-X.McKinney).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:43GB +12% win prob(12:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 83-J.Nailor to GB 29 for 31 yards (21-E.Stokes; 29-X.McKinney).
Q4 · 6:20MIN +12% win prob(6:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right intended for 13-D.Wicks INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN -4. Touchback.
Q1 · 6:52MIN +8% win prob(6:52) 44-B.Narveson 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q2 · 0:20GB +7% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:59MIN Touchdown
(11:59) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 3-J.Addison for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 7 — GB 0
Q1 · 1:41MIN Touchdown
(1:41) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 84-J.Oliver for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 14 — GB 0
Q2 · 11:54MIN Touchdown
(11:54) 3-J.Addison right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 21 — GB 0
Q2 · 5:32MIN Touchdown
(5:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 28 — GB 0
Q2 · 0:20GB Touchdown
(:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 28 — GB 7
Q4 · 11:42GB Touchdown
(11:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 28 — GB 14
Q4 · 10:22GB Touchdown
(10:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: MIN 28 — GB 22
Q4 · 6:53MIN Field goal
(6:53) 16-W.Reichard 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 31 — GB 22
Q4 · 1:02GB Touchdown
(1:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 13-D.Wicks for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 31 — GB 29

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Packers
Offensive plays	61	75
Total yards	377	467 (edge)
Yards per play	6.2	6.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.03 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	51% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	54%	76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.29 (edge)	-0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	-0.10 (edge)
Third downs	4/11 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2 (edge)	4

Packers outgained Vikings 467–377 but lost the turnover battle 4–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

32/54, 389 yds, 4 TD, 3 INT

-5.0 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Sam DarnoldQB

20/28, 275 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

8.1 expected points added · +10.9% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Aaron JonesRB

22 att, 93 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Josh JacobsRB

9 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Jayden ReedWR

7/8 for 139 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 11.1 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

6/8 for 85 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 27	8	78	3:07	Touchdown +7
2	GB	GB 30	11	56	5:06	Missed field goal
3	MIN	MIN 27	9	44	5:10	Touchdown +7
4	GB	GB 30	4	3	1:17	Interception
5	MIN	GB 46	8	46	3:30	Touchdown +7
6	GB	GB 30	8	19	3:46	Missed field goal
7	MIN	MIN 39	4	2	1:03	Punt
8	GB	GB 6	3	13	1:06	Interception
9	MIN	GB 4	2	14	0:27	Touchdown +7
10	GB	GB 30	11	36	3:25	Turnover on downs
11	MIN	MIN 34	4	9	0:52	Punt
12	GB	GB 16	4	7	0:32	Punt
13	GB	MIN 3	3	17	0:24	Touchdown +7
14	MIN	MIN 20	2	0	0:15	End of half
15	GB	GB 30	5	6	1:07	Punt
16	MIN	MIN 18	7	62	3:35	Interception
17	GB	GB 2	4	4	1:02	Punt
18	MIN	MIN 44	5	12	2:48	Punt
19	GB	GB 20	10	58	3:26	Turnover on downs
20	MIN	MIN 33	4	14	2:29	Punt
21	GB	GB 11	12	89	3:55	Touchdown +7
22	MIN	MIN 30	3	-6	0:55	Fumble
23	GB	MIN 20	3	22	0:27	Touchdown +8
24	MIN	MIN 30	8	55	3:26	Field goal +3
25	GB	GB 30	3	36	0:37	Interception
26	MIN	MIN 20	4	4	1:42	Punt
27	GB	GB 37	2	5	0:13	Fumble
28	MIN	GB 42	8	43	2:00	Turnover on downs
29	GB	GB 4	6	96	1:22	Touchdown +7
30	MIN	GB 47	3	0	0:56	End of game

9 of 30 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 96 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	20/28	275	3	1	2	8.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	22	93	4.2	0	-1.8
Sam Darnold	7	15	2.1	0	-1.4
Jordan Addison	1	7	7.0	1	1.8
Ty Chandler	3	5	1.7	0	-2.6
Jalen Nailor	1	0	0.0	0	-3.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	6	8	85	1	30%	7.1
Jordan Addison	3	4	72	1	15%	7.0
Aaron Jones	4	5	46	0	19%	-2.4
Jalen Nailor	1	2	31	0	7%	2.9
Johnny Mundt	2	2	15	0	7%	0.9
Josh Oliver	2	2	10	1	7%	1.8
Ty Chandler	1	1	8	0	4%	0.4
Trent Sherfield	1	1	8	0	4%	0.7
Brandon Powell	0	2	0	0	7%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Blake Cashman	4	5	0.0	0	1
Byron Murphy	5	2	0.0	1	2
Camryn Bynum	6	1	0.0	0	2
Josh Metellus	2	3	0.0	0	1
Harrison Phillips	1	4	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Greenard	2	1	0.0	0	0
Patrick Jones	1	2	1.0	0	0
Shaquill Griffin	3	0	0.0	1	3
Andrew Van Ginkel	2	0	0.0	0	0
Harrison Smith	2	0	0.0	0	1

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jordan Love	32/54	389	4	3	1	-5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Jacobs	9	51	5.7	1.3
Emanuel Wilson	8	27	3.4	-2.7
Jordan Love	1	6	6.0	1.5
Jayden Reed	1	2	2.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jayden Reed	7	8	139	1	15%	11.1
Dontayvion Wicks	5	13	78	2	24%	-4.5
Tucker Kraft	6	9	53	1	17%	-1.7
Romeo Doubs	4	8	39	0	15%	-8.2
Bo Melton	1	3	28	0	6%	-0.9
Josh Jacobs	4	6	27	0	11%	-0.1
Luke Musgrave	3	3	13	0	6%	0.1
Malik Heath	2	2	12	0	4%	0.8
Emanuel Wilson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6
Christian Watson	0	1	0	0	2%	-3.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Quay Walker	5	2	1.0	0
Keisean Nixon	5	2	1.0	0
Isaiah McDuffie	2	4	0.0	1
Eric Stokes	5	1	0.0	0
Edgerrin Cooper	4	0	0.0	0
Javon Bullard	2	2	0.0	0
Lukas Van Ness	3	0	0.0	0
Rashan Gary	3	0	0.0	0
Karl Brooks	1	1	0.0	0
Kenny Clark	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -2.5
Closing total: 44
MIN moneyline: +114
GB moneyline: -135

Packers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 60 — over by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 71°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: MIN 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Kevin O'Connell vs Matt LaFleur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.