2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · Levi's Stadium

New England Patriots

San Francisco 49ersWinner

SF -10.5 ✓O 41.5 ✓49ers closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 17.

San Francisco 49ers 30–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:25, SF +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:25NE 0 — SF 0NE ball · 3rd & 7SF 85%

(12:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 3-D.Douglas ran ob at SF 48 for 8 yards.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:25SF +7% win prob(12:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 3-D.Douglas ran ob at SF 48 for 8 yards.
Q2 · 14:15NE +6% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle intended for 11-T.Thornton INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner [56-L.Floyd] at NE 45. 54-F.Warner for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 7:40SF +5% win prob(7:40) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at NE 33 for 38 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
Q1 · 2:26NE +4% win prob(2:26) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 28 for -2 yards (91-S.Okuayinonu). FUMBLES (91-S.Okuayinonu), RECOVERED by SF-99-M.Collins at NE 30.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 2:29SF Field goal
(2:29) 4-J.Moody 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: NE 0 — SF 3
Q1 · 0:08SF Field goal
(:08) 4-J.Moody 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: NE 0 — SF 6
Q2 · 14:15SF Touchdown
(14:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle intended for 11-T.Thornton INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner [56-L.Floyd] at NE 45. 54-F.Warner for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 0 — SF 13
Q2 · 3:18SF Touchdown
(3:18) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Uche]. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 0 — SF 20
Q2 · 0:03NE Field goal
(:03) 13-J.Slye 63 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 3 — SF 20
Q3 · 12:11NE Touchdown
(12:11) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 10 — SF 20
Q3 · 10:12SF Touchdown
(10:12) 24-J.Mason left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 10 — SF 27
Q4 · 13:29NE Field goal
(13:29) 13-J.Slye 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 13 — SF 27
Q4 · 5:02SF Field goal
(5:02) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: NE 13 — SF 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	49ers
Offensive plays	62	59
Total yards	213	432 (edge)
Yards per play	3.4	7.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.48	0.13 (edge)
Success rate	32%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.42	0.32 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.57	-0.06 (edge)
Third downs	5/17	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.48.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

15/27, 288 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

7.0 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Jacoby BrissettQB

19/32, 168 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-15.8 expected points added · -8.5% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Jordan MasonRB

24 att, 123 yds, 1 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

13 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

-11.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Jauan JenningsWR

3/6 for 88 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Antonio GibsonRB

3/4 for 67 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 30	11	29	4:49	Punt
2	SF	SF 7	15	90	7:45	Field goal +3
3	NE	NE 30	2	0	0:11	Fumble
4	SF	NE 30	5	22	2:09	Field goal +3
5	NE	NE 30	4	5	1:05	Defensive touchdown
6	NE	NE 30	12	45	5:54	Turnover on downs
7	SF	SF 20	11	95	4:56	Touchdown +7
8	NE	NE 30	5	3	1:28	Punt
9	SF	SF 13	4	0	1:05	Punt
10	NE	SF 39	4	-6	0:38	Field goal +3
11	SF	—	1	0	0:06	Fumble
12	NE	SF 27	6	27	2:49	Touchdown +7
13	SF	SF 30	6	70	1:57	Touchdown +7
14	NE	NE 30	6	19	2:14	Punt
15	SF	SF 12	7	21	3:03	Punt
16	NE	NE 41	5	1	1:55	Punt
17	SF	SF 17	5	27	2:23	Punt
18	NE	NE 32	8	19	2:07	Field goal +3
19	SF	SF 30	4	52	2:07	Interception
20	NE	NE 20	7	17	3:01	Turnover on downs
21	SF	NE 36	6	8	3:20	Field goal +3
22	NE	NE 30	6	54	2:14	Fumble
23	SF	SF 15	7	47	2:44	End of game

8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 95 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jacoby Brissett	19/32	168	1	1	6	-15.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	13	43	3.3	-11.1
Jamycal Hasty	3	15	5.0	0.6
Antonio Gibson	6	12	2.0	-2.9
Jacoby Brissett	2	3	1.5	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Antonio Gibson	3	4	67	0	13%	5.3
Ja'Lynn Polk	3	7	30	0	22%	-4.0
Rhamondre Stevenson	4	5	19	0	16%	-0.4
Demario Douglas	3	3	13	0	9%	1.3
Austin Hooper	2	2	13	1	6%	4.2
Hunter Henry	2	3	12	0	9%	-0.7
Kayshon Boutte	1	1	11	0	3%	0.7
K.J. Osborn	1	5	3	0	16%	-4.6
Jamycal Hasty	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.3
Tyquan Thornton	0	1	0	0	3%	-7.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jabrill Peppers	3	4	0.0	1	2
Christian Gonzalez	6	0	0.0	0	0
Deatrich Wise	2	4	1.0	0	1
Jaylinn Hawkins	2	3	0.0	0	0
Raekwon McMillan	3	1	0.0	0	0
Davon Godchaux	1	3	0.0	0	0
Jahlani Tavai	3	1	0.0	0	0
Joshua Uche	3	0	0.0	0	0
Christian Elliss	2	1	0.0	0	0
Marcus Jones	2	0	0.0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	15/27	288	1	1	1	7.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Mason	24	123	5.1	1	-0.4
Deebo Samuel	2	14	7.0	0	0.9
Brock Purdy	5	11	2.2	0	-0.6
Isaac Guerendo	1	0	0.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jauan Jennings	3	6	88	0	23%	2.8
Deebo Samuel	3	5	58	0	19%	-0.0
Brandon Aiyuk	2	5	48	0	19%	-2.7
George Kittle	4	4	45	1	15%	6.8
Jordan Mason	2	3	37	0	12%	2.3
Kyle Juszczyk	1	1	12	0	4%	1.1
Chris Conley	0	2	0	0	8%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Fred Warner	4	3	0.0	1	1
Ji'Ayir Brown	4	3	0.0	0	1
De'Vondre Campbell	2	4	0.0	0	0
Charvarius Ward	5	0	0.0	0	1
Malik Mustapha	1	4	0.0	0	0
Nick Bosa	3	1	1.0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	2	2	0.0	0	0
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles	1	2	0.0	0	0
Kevin Givens	2	1	2.5	0	0
Maliek Collins	2	1	1.5	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -10.5
Closing total: 41.5
NE moneyline: +410
SF moneyline: -550

49ers closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 43 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 71°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: NE 10 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Jerod Mayo vs Kyle Shanahan