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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 4
It turned at Q1 12:25, 3rd and 7, on Demario Douglas — 6.6 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 30–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:25, Patriots +6.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:25 · 3rd and 7
Demario Douglas
Patriots
(12:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 3-D.Douglas ran ob at SF 48 for 8 yards.
6.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.48 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.42 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Patriots at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.57 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(12:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 3-D.Douglas ran ob at SF 48 for 8 yards.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jake Moody's 22-yard field goal with 2:29 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Jake Moody22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.PepperLead never changed again+30–39 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 62 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against 49ers’s 59 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, 49ers 4.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.48.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
SF's sack or hit rate, 30.8%, sat 17.0 points above their season number of 13.8% — they got home by 2.2 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
NE's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, sat 67.8 points above their season number of 32.2% — they went for it by 2.0 times their own 33.7-point weekly swing.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.7 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-7.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 62 snaps
49ers-0.3 ptsright on their number · +1.9 vs their -2.3 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 86%
Tendencies room →Patriots52.4%right on their number · −4.0 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 42 early downs
49ers39.1%leaned — ran early · −15.3 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 43%
Tendencies room →Patriots7.7%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.3 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.82× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
49ers10.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.4 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -54% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Patriots100.0%off script — went for it · +67.8 vs their 32.2%, and they swing ±33.7 week to week (+2.01× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
49ers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −21.7 vs their 21.7%, and they swing ±20.8 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 69%
Tendencies room →Patriots40.0%right on their number · +4.8 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±13.1 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
49ers33.3%leaned — sent pressure · +13.2 vs their 20.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+1.23× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 34%
Tendencies room →Patriots13.3%right on their number · +3.2 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
49ers30.8%off script — got home · +17.0 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+2.25× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
SF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.8%, 17.0 points above their season mean of 13.8% and 2.2 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
15/27, 288 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
7.0 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected
Passing · NE
19/32, 168 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-15.8 expected points added · -8.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
George Kittle banked 7.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan MasonRB · Bell Cow Back | 24.0 | +3.1 | 75% | 60% | 12% | 8% | 24 car, 123 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 37 yd |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 14.6 | −5.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/27, 288 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 11 yd |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.5 | +7.0 | 94% | 93% | 15% | 11% | 4/4, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Featured Receiver | 11.8 | −0.8 | 57% | 67% | 23% | 23% | 3/6, 88 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Receiving Back | 10.9 | +2.5 | 34% | 36% | 13% | 8% | 6 car, 12 yd · 3/4, 67 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Featured Receiver | 10.2 | −1.6 | 76% | 83% | 19% | 17% | 2 car, 14 yd · 3/5, 58 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | +4.8 | 59% | 44% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 13 yd, 1 TD |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 8.2 | −4.2 | 55% | 54% | 16% | 0% | 13 car, 43 yd · 4/5, 19 yd |
| Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB | 7.0 | −3.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/32, 168 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 3 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Featured Receiver | 6.8 | −3.6 | 79% | 90% | 19% | 24% | 2/5, 48 yd |
| Ja'Lynn PolkWR · Featured Receiver | 6.0 | −2.9 | 83% | 87% | 22% | 63% | 3/7, 30 yd |
| Demario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | +0.4 | 59% | 69% | 9% | 5% | 3/3, 13 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −1.5 | 78% | 85% | 9% | 8% | 2/3, 12 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 2.2 | +0.6 | 60% | 67% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.8 | 23% | 23% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Jamycal HastyRB | 1.5 | −0.9 | 16% | 15% | 3% | 4% | 3 car, 15 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −4.7 | 66% | 67% | 16% | 11% | 1/5, 3 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.0 | 20% | 15% | 3% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Isaac GuerendoRB | 0.0 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Patrick TaylorRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Chris ConleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.7 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jacob CowingWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle intended for 11-T.Thornton INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner [56-L.Floyd] at NE 45. 54-F.Warner for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 14:15 · Patriots · 3rd & 5 at NE 35 · gained nothing · -7.59 EP · −13.2% win probability
155 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 90 yards from the SF 7 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots0
49ers3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Patriots049ers6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Patriots049ers12Patriots049ers13Patriots049ers19Patriots049ers20Patriots349ers20Patriots949ers20Patriots1049ers20Patriots1049ers26Patriots1049ers27Patriots1349ers27Patriots1349ers30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 19/32 | 168 | 1 | 1 | 6 | −15.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 | −11.1 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Antonio Gibson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 4 | 67 | 0 | 13% | +5.3 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 22% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabrill Peppers | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deatrich Wise |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 15/27 | 288 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +7.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_04_NE_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 43 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 12 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| −2.9 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.3 |
| −4.0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 16% | −0.4 |
| Demario Douglas | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 9% | +1.3 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 6% | +4.2 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9% | −0.7 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16% | −4.6 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −7.6 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raekwon McMillan | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Godchaux | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Uche | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 24 | 123 | 5.1 | 1 | −0.4 |
| Deebo Samuel | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Brock Purdy | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings | 3 | 6 | 88 | 0 | 23% | +2.8 |
| Deebo Samuel | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 | 19% | −0.0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 19% | −2.7 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 4 | 45 | 1 | 15% | +6.8 |
| Jordan Mason | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 12% | +2.3 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | +1.1 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| De'Vondre Campbell | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Mustapha | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Floyd | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Givens | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Maliek Collins | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
