For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
New England Patriots 13 at San Francisco 49ers 30. Final.
49ers -10.5 ✓O 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 4
San Francisco 49ers 30, Patriots 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 12:25, 3rd and 7, on Demario Douglas — 6.6 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:25 · 3rd and 7
Demario Douglas
Patriots
(12:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 3-D.Douglas ran ob at SF 48 for 8 yards.
49ers closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 17.
San Francisco 49ers 30–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:25, Patriots +6.6% win probability on one snap.
6.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brandon Aiyuk49ersQ1 7:40(7:40) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at NE 33 for 38 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
4.5pts
Fred Warner49ersQ2 14:15(14:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle intended for 11-T.Thornton INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner [56-L.Floyd] at NE 45. 54-F.Warner for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.9pts
What separated them
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.48 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.42 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Patriots at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.57 expected points per carry.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Patriots157 of 168 plays carry both curves
(12:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 3-D.Douglas ran ob at SF 48 for 8 yards.
Swing −6.6 for 49ersExpected points −1.85 for 49ersThe model had Patriots 26 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:25SF +7% win prob(12:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 3-D.Douglas ran ob at SF 48 for 8 yards.
2nd · 14:15NE +6% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle intended for 11-T.Thornton INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner [56-L.Floyd] at NE 45. 54-F.Warner for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:40SF +5% win prob(7:40) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at NE 33 for 38 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
1st · 2:26NE +4% win prob(2:26) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 28 for -2 yards (91-S.Okuayinonu). FUMBLES (91-S.Okuayinonu), RECOVERED by SF-99-M.Collins at NE 30.
1st · 10:20SF +4% win prob(10:20) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to SF 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-41-B.Schooler.
1st · 10:11SF +4% win prob(10:11) 1-D.Samuel left tackle to SF 13 for 6 yards (23-K.Dugger; 48-J.Tavai).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Moody's 22-yard field goal with 2:29 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st2:29Jake Moody·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.PepperLead never changed again+30–3
1st0:08Jake Moody·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+30–6
4th13:29Joey Slye·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+313–27
4th5:02Jake Moody·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+313–30
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by category49ers
Patriots0–949ers
213Total yards432
3.4Yards per play7.3
32%Success rate41%
29%Third-down rate54%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays9
10First downs18
6Sacks taken1
3Turnovers2
The read
49ers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.48Patriots: −0.48 expected points added per play
+0.1349ers: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.42Patriots: −0.42 expected points added per play
+0.3249ers: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.57Patriots: −0.57 expected points added per play
−0.0649ers: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 62 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against 49ers’s 59 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, 49ers 4.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.48.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, sat 67.8 points above their season number of 32.2% — they went for it by 2.0 times their own 33.7-point weekly swing.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +3.2 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
49ers30.8%
off script — got home · +17.0 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+2.25× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteSF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.8%, 17.0 points above their season mean of 13.8% and 2.2 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
62Sidy SowG · Every snap100%64 snaps
64Layden RobinsonG · Every snap100%64 snaps
75Demontrey JacobsT · Every snap100%64 snaps
71Mike OnwenuG · Every snap100%64 snaps
7Jacoby BrissettQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
51Nick LeverettG · Full-time86%55 snaps
1Ja'Lynn PolkWR · Full-time83%53 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Heavy rotation78%50 snaps
2K.J. OsbornWR · Heavy rotation66%42 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation59%38 snaps
3Demario DouglasWR · Heavy rotation59%38 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Heavy rotation55%35 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Brissett pass−13% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(14:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle intended for 11-T.Thornton INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner [56-L.Floyd] at NE 45. 54-F.Warner for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 14:15 · Patriots · 3rd & 5 at NE 35 · gained nothing · -7.59 EP · −13.2% win probability
155 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 90 yards from the SF 7 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
41%
Yards
644
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.4969%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR24+0.1550%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.0964%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.2750%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.1040%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
49ers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
49ers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the 49ers 41
Patriots049ers3
Field goal16 plays, from the 49ers 7 to the Patriots 3
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Patriots049ers6
Field goal5 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 8
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Patriots049ers12
Touchdown2 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 35
Patriots049ers13
The period ended14 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the 49ers 20
Patriots049ers19
Patriots049ers20
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Patriots 7
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 38
Punt5 plays
Patriots349ers20
Field goal6 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Patriots949ers20
Patriots1049ers20
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 27 to the 49ers 5
Patriots1049ers26
Patriots1049ers27
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Patriots 4
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the 49ers 49
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 12 to the 49ers 28
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Patriots 45
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the 49ers 41
The period ended4 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the 49ers 49
4th quarter41 plays
Patriots1349ers27
Field goal6 plays, from the 49ers 49 to the 49ers 36
Intercepted5 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Patriots 23
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 39
Patriots1349ers30
Field goal7 plays, from the Patriots 36 to the Patriots 22
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the 49ers 14
The period ended10 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the Patriots 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -10.5
Closing total
41.5
Patriots moneyline
+410
49ers moneyline
-550
49ers closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 43 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 75°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Patriots 10 days · 49ers 7 days
Coaches
Jerod Mayo vs Kyle Shanahan
1st · 11:07
SF +3% win prob
(11:07) 38-R.Stevenson right tackle to SF 41 for 8 yards (7-C.Ward).
3rd · 15:00NE +3% win prob13-J.Slye kicks 62 yards from NE 35 to SF 3. 31-I.Guerendo to SF 26 for 23 yards (53-C.Elliss). FUMBLES (53-C.Elliss), RECOVERED by NE-53-C.Elliss at SF 27.
