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New Orleans Saints 24 at Atlanta Falcons 26. Final.
Falcons -2.5 no coverO 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 4
Atlanta Falcons 26, Saints 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:07, 4th and 10, on Younghoe Koo — 45.0 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:07 · 4th and 10
Younghoe Koo
Falcons
(:07) 6-Y.Koo 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Dome
Falcons closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Atlanta Falcons 26–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:07, Falcons +45.0% win probability on one snap.
45.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Troy AndersenFalconsQ2 8:05(8:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 12-C.Olave INTERCEPTED by 44-T.Andersen (15-M.Judon) at NO 47. 44-T.Andersen for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
24.7pts
Kirk CousinsFalconsQ4 0:29(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 1-D.Mooney. PENALTY on NO-29-P.Adebo, Defensive Pass Interference, 30 yards, enforced at ATL 30 - No Play.
32.8pts
What separated them
Third down
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 13 on third down, against Falcons at 4 of 11 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Saints at 5 chunk plays.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Saints164 of 174 plays carry both curves
(:07) 6-Y.Koo 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Swing +45.0 for FalconsExpected points +1.38 for FalconsThe model had Saints 8 points higher than the market did.play 172
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:07ATL +45% win prob(:07) 6-Y.Koo 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
4th · 0:29ATL +33% win prob(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 1-D.Mooney. PENALTY on NO-29-P.Adebo, Defensive Pass Interference, 30 yards, enforced at ATL 30 - No Play.
2nd · 8:05NO +25% win prob(8:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 12-C.Olave INTERCEPTED by 44-T.Andersen (15-M.Judon) at NO 47. 44-T.Andersen for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:25ATL +18% win prob(11:25) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to NO 3, Center-49-L.McCullough. 22-R.Shaheed MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-12-K.Hodge at NO -8. TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:58ATL +16% win prob(1:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 12-C.Olave to ATL 1 for 16 yards (20-D.Alford).
4th · 4:01NO +14% win prob(4:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 22-R.Shaheed (20-D.Alford).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Younghoe Koo's 58-yard field goal with 0:07 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:25KhaDarel Hodge·return TDreturn touchdownon the kickon the kick+70–7
4th0:07Younghoe Koo·58-yd field goal58-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCulloughLead never changed again+324–26
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryFalcons
Saints5–2Falcons
366Total yards315
5.2Yards per play6.2
50%Success rate41%
54%Third-down rate36%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays6
23First downs13
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Saints ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Saints: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.02Falcons: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Saints: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.03Falcons: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Saints: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.14Falcons: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 70 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Falcons’s 51 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Falcons 0.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's pass rate over expected, +6.9 pts, sat 14.9 points above their season number of −8.1 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.3 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 3.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Falcons7.9%
right on their number · −3.6 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteATL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 6.9 pts, 14.9 points above their season mean of -8.1 pts and 2.3 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
67Landon YoungT · Every snap100%74 snaps
70Trevor PenningT · Every snap100%74 snaps
75Taliese FuagaT · Every snap100%74 snaps
62Lucas PatrickG · Every snap100%74 snaps
66Shane LemieuxG · Every snap100%74 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Every snap99%73 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Full-time82%61 snaps
12Chris OlaveWR · Heavy rotation78%58 snaps
22Rashid ShaheedWR · Heavy rotation77%57 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonTE · Heavy rotation68%50 snaps
87Foster MoreauTE · Heavy rotation57%42 snaps
84Mason TiptonWR · Rotational39%29 snaps
46Adam PrenticeFB · Rotational32%24 snaps
7Taysom HillTE · Situational20%15 snaps
11Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR · Situational19%14 snaps
21Jamaal WilliamsRB · Situational15%11 snaps
16Bub MeansWR · Situational8%6 snaps
74Oli UdohT · Situational5%4 snaps
Inactive · 6
Cesar RuizCJohn RidgewayDTDemario DavisMLBSpencer RattlerQBDallin HolkerTEA.T. PerryWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Younghoe Koo+50% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:07) 6-Y.Koo 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q4 0:07 · Falcons · 4th & 10 at NO 40 · gained nothing · +1.38 EP · +49.7% win probability
162 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 70 yards from the ATL 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
45%
Yards
681
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.0070%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.1989%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2725%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15-0.0747%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Saints0Falcons6
Touchdown11 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Saints 44
Saints0Falcons7
Saints6Falcons7
Saints7Falcons7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Falcons 2
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Falcons 44
The period ended9 plays, from the Saints 47 to the Falcons 15
2nd quarter45 plays
Saints13Falcons7
Saints14Falcons7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Falcons 15 to the Falcons 5
Saints14Falcons10
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Saints 30
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
It should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.3 seconds
Saints14Falcons16
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 43
Saints14Falcons17
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Falcons 42
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 12 to the Falcons 47
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 12 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 42
Saints14Falcons20
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Saints 22
Saints17Falcons20
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Falcons 24
The period ended4 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Falcons 26
4th quarter55 plays
Saints17Falcons23
Field goal9 plays, from the Falcons 41 to the Saints 19
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
The period ended15 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Falcons 5
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 7 to the Falcons 14
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.4 seconds
Saints23Falcons23
Saints24Falcons23
Touchdown15 plays, from the Falcons 42 to the Falcons 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Saints24Falcons26
Field goal9 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Saints 40
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -2.5
Closing total
41.5
Saints moneyline
+120
Falcons moneyline
-142
Falcons closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 50 — over by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Saints 7 days · Falcons 7 days
Coaches
Dennis Allen vs Raheem Morris
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 0:02NO +14% win prob6-Y.Koo kicks 66 yards from ATL 35 to NO -1. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 14 for 15 yards. Lateral to 21-Ja.Williams to NO 15 for 1 yard (27-R.Grant).
1st · 4:52NO +11% win prob(4:52) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 34-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo [93-N.Shepherd] at NO 46. 29-P.Adebo to NO 47 for 1 yard (25-T.Allgeier).
