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2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

New Orleans Saints

24

Atlanta FalconsWinner

26

ATL -2.5 no coverO 41.5 ✓Dome

Atlanta Falcons 26–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:07, ATL +45% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ATL ↑NO ↓
Q4 · 0:07NO 24 — ATL 26ATL ball · 4th & 10NO 58%

(:07) 6-Y.Koo 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:07ATL +45% win prob(:07) 6-Y.Koo 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
  2. Q4 · 0:29ATL +33% win prob(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 1-D.Mooney. PENALTY on NO-29-P.Adebo, Defensive Pass Interference, 30 yards, enforced at ATL 30 - No Play.
  3. Q2 · 8:05NO +25% win prob(8:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 12-C.Olave INTERCEPTED by 44-T.Andersen (15-M.Judon) at NO 47. 44-T.Andersen for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q1 · 11:25ATL +18% win prob(11:25) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to NO 3, Center-49-L.McCullough. 22-R.Shaheed MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-12-K.Hodge at NO -8. TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:25ATL Touchdown

    (11:25) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to NO 3, Center-49-L.McCullough. 22-R.Shaheed MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-12-K.Hodge at NO -8. TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 0 — ATL 7
  2. Q1 · 6:43NO Touchdown

    (6:43) (Shotgun) 74-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 7 — ATL 7
  3. Q2 · 13:46NO Touchdown

    (13:46) 7-T.Hill left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 14 — ATL 7
  4. Q2 · 10:02ATL Field goal

    (10:02) 6-Y.Koo 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: NO 14 — ATL 10
  5. Q2 · 8:05ATL Touchdown

    (8:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 12-C.Olave INTERCEPTED by 44-T.Andersen (15-M.Judon) at NO 47. 44-T.Andersen for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 14 — ATL 17
  6. Q3 · 6:50ATL Field goal

    (6:50) 6-Y.Koo 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ** Injury Update: NO-1-A.Taylor has returned to the game.

    Score after this play: NO 14 — ATL 20
  7. Q3 · 1:08NO Field goal

    (1:08) 19-B.Grupe 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

    Score after this play: NO 17 — ATL 20
  8. Q4 · 10:13ATL Field goal

    (10:13) 6-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: NO 17 — ATL 23
  9. Q4 · 1:04NO Touchdown

    (1:04) 41-A.Kamara left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 24 — ATL 23
  10. Q4 · 0:07ATL Field goal

    (:07) 6-Y.Koo 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: NO 24 — ATL 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSaintsFalcons
Offensive plays7051
Total yards366 (edge)315
Yards per play5.26.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.06 (edge)0.02
Success rate50% (edge)41%
Dropback rate54%71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.01 (edge)-0.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.14 (edge)0.14
Third downs7/13 (edge)4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)56 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)13
Sacks taken11
Turnovers11

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

28/36, 239 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-0.1 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Kirk CousinsQB

21/35, 238 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-1.1 expected points added · -6.8% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

19 att, 77 yds, 1 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

8 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

8/10 for 87 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · -0.5 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Rashid ShaheedWR

8/11 for 83 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 0.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ATLATL 3010393:47Defensive touchdown +6
2NONO 3011654:34Touchdown +7
3ATLATL 206241:56Interception
4NONO 4712536:01Touchdown +7
5ATLATL 238573:45Field goal +3
6NONO 305132:03Defensive touchdown
7NONO 366203:05Punt
8ATLATL 127413:00Punt
9NONO 128281:19Punt
10ATLATL 10190:30End of half
11NONO 307274:15Punt
12ATLATL 1010643:59Field goal +3
13NONO 2511505:43Field goal +3
14ATLATL 1911695:54Field goal +3
15NONO 3013586:12Turnover on downs
16ATLATL 7470:29Punt
17NOATL 4210522:28Touchdown +7
18ATLATL 30650:58Field goal +3
19NO—100:02End of game

9 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 69 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Derek Carr28/36239011-0.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Alvin Kamara19774.11-0.6
Taysom Hill6244.025.1
Rashid Shaheed2147.001.2
Jamaal Williams3113.70-0.2
Derek Carr351.70-1.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chris Olave81087028%-0.5
Rashid Shaheed81183031%0.0
Alvin Kamara7942025%0.8
Juwan Johnson231308%-0.3
Jamaal Williams22806%-0.1
Mason Tipton11603%1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Paulson Adebo920.013
Pete Werner230.000
Marshon Lattimore320.001
Alontae Taylor400.002
Payton Turner211.000
Chase Young200.000
Tyrann Mathieu110.000
Carl Granderson200.000
Will Harris100.001

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins21/35238011-1.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tyler Allgeier8607.502.7
Bijan Robinson7284.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Drake London61264035%0.5
Darnell Mooney3656018%1.9
Ray-Ray McCloud6752021%-2.5
Bijan Robinson4446012%2.0
Tyler Allgeier222006%1.9
Kyle Pitts03009%-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Troy Andersen870.011
Dee Alford811.001
Mike Hughes700.000
Kaden Elliss510.000
Jessie Bates320.000
A.J. Terrell410.000
James Smith-Williams230.000
Zach Harrison140.000
Lorenzo Carter210.000
Grady Jarrett210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Closing total
41.5
NO moneyline
+120
ATL moneyline
-142

Falcons closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 50 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
NO 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches
Dennis Allen vs Raheem Morris

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.