For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 4
It turned at Q3 2:44, 1st and 10, on Jalen Hurts — 10.1 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 2:44, Buccaneers +10.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:44 · 1st and 10
Jalen Hurts
Buccaneers
(2:44) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at TB 27 for -8 yards (54-L.David). FUMBLES (54-L.David), touched at TB 23, RECOVERED by TB-56-B.Stille at TB 24.
10.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Eagles at 3 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.07 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(2:44) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at TB 27 for -8 yards (54-L.David). FUMBLES (54-L.David), touched at TB 23, RECOVERED by TB-56-B.Stille at TB 24.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mike Evans's 2-yard touchdown catch with 9:48 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Mike Evans2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker MayfieldLead never changed again+70–7
Eaglesdefensive twodefensive two-point return+216–309 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryBuccaneers
Buccaneers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 55 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 73 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 3, Buccaneers 6.
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's pass rate over expected, +15.8 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 6.2 points clear of the next team along.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points. · +2.5σ from their own normal
TB's blitz rate sent, 70.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 8.7 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 18.3 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
PHI's blitz rate sent turned over: 14.3% in week 3 against 34.0% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.1% in week 3 against 21.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles-0.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.1 vs their -9.0 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 55 snaps
Buccaneers15.8 ptsoff script — threw more than the situation asked · +15.9 vs their -0.0 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+2.54× that swing) · 73 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 82%
Tendencies room →Eagles67.5%leaned — passed early · +23.7 vs their 43.8%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+1.91× that swing) · 40 early downs
Buccaneers66.1%leaned — passed early · +10.9 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 59 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 47%
Tendencies room →Eagles13.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −10.4 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Buccaneers22.0%right on their number · +2.7 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -52% to 112%
Fourth Down room →Eagles—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 46.1%.
Buccaneers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 91%
Tendencies room →Eagles34.0%leaned — sent pressure · +10.2 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Buccaneers70.3%leaned — sent pressure · +26.4 vs their 43.9%, and they swing ±18.3 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 33%
Tendencies room →Eagles4.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.4 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Buccaneers21.6%leaned — got home · +6.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
TB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 15.8 pts, 15.9 points above their season mean of -0.0 pts and 2.5 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
30/47, 347 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
9.4 expected points added · -5.9% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
18/30, 158 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-10.6 expected points added · -3.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Trey Palmer banked 5.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 28.9 | +0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 30/47, 347 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 10 yd, 1 TD |
| Mike EvansWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.4 | −5.2 | 77% | 86% | 30% | 48% | 8/14, 94 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 16.3 | −3.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/30, 158 yd, 1 TD · 8 car, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 13.6 | −1.6 | 56% | 54% | 14% | 12% | 10 car, 84 yd · 2/4, 32 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Alpha Receiver | 13.2 | +0.7 | 63% | 57% | 28% | 26% | 7/8, 62 yd |
| Chris GodwinWR · Featured Receiver | 12.9 | −2.2 | 86% | 90% | 19% | 13% | 6/9, 69 yd |
| Bucky IrvingRB | 12.5 | −2.1 | 42% | 38% | 4% | 0% | 10 car, 49 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 6 yd |
| Parris CampbellWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.7 | +4.5 | 84% | 78% | 14% | 4% | 4/4, 17 yd, 1 TD |
| Trey PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.6 | +5.0 | 14% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 3/3, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Cade OttonTE · Featured Receiver | 11.2 | −3.8 | 95% | 100% | 19% | 13% | 6/9, 52 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | 10.4 | +0.9 | 58% | 60% | 6% | 0% | 10 car, 49 yd · 2/3, 35 yd |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +0.1 | 65% | 68% | 11% | 26% | 3/5, 51 yd |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −0.1 | 47% | 54% | 7% | 17% | 1/2, 26 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −2.5 | 86% | 95% | 14% | 12% | 2/4, 11 yd |
| Sean TuckerRB | 2.7 | +0.8 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| John RossWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.8 | 21% | 27% | 7% | 19% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Jack StollTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.9 | 39% | 35% | 7% | 3% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 0.9 | −3.5 | 44% | 46% | 3% | 1% | 2 car, 9 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ben VanSumerenRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Will ShipleyRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Johnny WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.7 | 56% | 51% | 7% | 6% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kameron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.0 | 32% | 24% | 2% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:44) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at TB 27 for -8 yards (54-L.David). FUMBLES (54-L.David), touched at TB 23, RECOVERED by TB-56-B.Stille at TB 24.
Q3 2:44 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at TB 19 · lost 4 · -5.66 EP · −9.3% win probability
164 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 80 yards from the TB 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Eagles0
Buccaneers6Eagles0Buccaneers7Eagles0Buccaneers13Eagles0Buccaneers14Eagles0Buccaneers20Eagles0Buccaneers21Eagles0Buccaneers24Eagles6Buccaneers24Eagles7Buccaneers24Eagles13Buccaneers24Eagles14Buccaneers24Eagles14Buccaneers30Eagles16Buccaneers30Eagles16Buccaneers33Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 18/30 | 158 | 1 | 0 | 6 | −10.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 10 | 84 | 8.4 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 1 | +4.1 |
| Kenneth Gainwell |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 7 | 8 | 62 | 0 | 28% | +2.9 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slay | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tristin McCollum | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nakobe Dean |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 30/47 | 347 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +9.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_04_PHI_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42; the game landed 49 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 9 |
| 4.5 |
| 0 |
| +0.7 |
| 14% |
| +1.0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 7% | +1.0 |
| Parris Campbell | 4 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 14% | +2.2 |
| Jahan Dotson | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 14% | −1.4 |
| John Ross | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | +0.1 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7% | −0.8 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Johnny Wilson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −0.7 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zack Baun | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nolan Smith | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Avonte Maddox | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Thomas Booker | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Bucky Irving | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 1 | +3.1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 | −1.0 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 8 | 14 | 94 | 1 | 30% | +3.1 |
| Chris Godwin | 6 | 9 | 69 | 0 | 19% | +4.1 |
| Cade Otton | 6 | 9 | 52 | 0 | 19% | −0.3 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 11% | +3.0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 6% | +2.3 |
| Trey Palmer | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 6% | +2.3 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2% | +0.9 |
| Bucky Irving | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Kameron Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 4 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| K.J. Britt | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Zyon McCollum | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Izien | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Braswell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Hall | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
