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2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium

Philadelphia Eagles

16

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

33

PHI -1 upsetO 42 ✓

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 2:44, PHI +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TB ↑PHI ↓
Q3 · 2:44PHI 16 — TB 30PHI ball · 1st & 10TB 82%

(2:44) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at TB 27 for -8 yards (54-L.David). FUMBLES (54-L.David), touched at TB 23, RECOVERED by TB-56-B.Stille at TB 24.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 2:44PHI +10% win prob(2:44) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at TB 27 for -8 yards (54-L.David). FUMBLES (54-L.David), touched at TB 23, RECOVERED by TB-56-B.Stille at TB 24.
  2. Q1 · 1:16TB +9% win prob(1:16) 16-T.Gill punts 42 yards to PHI 18, Center-45-Z.Triner. 33-C.DeJean MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-51-J.Russell at PHI 22.
  3. Q3 · 15:00TB +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle pushed ob at TB 11 for 59 yards (3-J.Whitehead).
  4. Q1 · 11:03TB +7% win prob(11:03) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White pushed ob at PHI 8 for 22 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:48TB Touchdown

    (9:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PHI 0 — TB 7
  2. Q1 · 5:08TB Touchdown

    (5:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 10-T.Palmer for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PHI 0 — TB 14
  3. Q2 · 14:13TB Touchdown

    (14:13) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PHI 0 — TB 21
  4. Q2 · 7:21TB Field goal

    (7:21) 4-C.McLaughlin 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: PHI 0 — TB 24
  5. Q2 · 2:00PHI Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 80-P.Campbell for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PHI 7 — TB 24
  6. Q3 · 12:40PHI Touchdown

    (12:40) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PHI 14 — TB 24
  7. Q3 · 6:53TB Touchdown

    (6:53) 7-B.Irving left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: PHI 14 — TB 30
  8. Q3 · 6:49PHI Score

    4-C.McLaughlin extra point is Blocked (34-I.Rodgers), Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 22-K.Ringo recovered the blocked kick. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

    Score after this play: PHI 16 — TB 30
  9. Q4 · 13:04TB Field goal

    (13:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: PHI 16 — TB 33

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricEaglesBuccaneers
Offensive plays5573
Total yards228446 (edge)
Yards per play4.16.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.070.21 (edge)
Success rate44%51% (edge)
Dropback rate67%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.250.23 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.31 (edge)0.17
Third downs6/136/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)38 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1527 (edge)
Sacks taken62 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

30/47, 347 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.4 expected points added · -5.9% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

18/30, 158 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-10.6 expected points added · -3.6% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Saquon BarkleyRB

10 att, 84 yds, 0 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

10 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

8/14 for 94 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

6/9 for 69 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 2112795:16Touchdown +7
2PHIPHI 30571:55Punt
3TBTB 206802:46Touchdown +7
4PHIPHI 305-71:38Punt
5TBTB 27582:19Punt
6TBPHI 226221:57Touchdown +7
7PHIPHI 30500:22Punt
8TBTB 2012666:29Field goal +3
9PHIPHI 3016655:24Touchdown +7
10TBTB 306130:40Punt
11PHIPHI 20450:19Punt
12TBTB 286190:47Punt
13PHIPHI 21100:08End of half
14PHIPHI 307702:32Touchdown +7
15TBTB 3014705:39Touchdown +6
16PHIPHI 279504:13Fumble
17TBTB 249474:37Field goal +3
18PHIPHI 208193:42Punt
19TBTB 215171:37Punt
20PHIPHI 2310193:30Turnover on downs
21TBPHI 426254:10End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jalen Hurts18/30158106-10.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Saquon Barkley10848.402.2
Jalen Hurts8202.514.1
Kenneth Gainwell294.500.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Dallas Goedert7862028%2.9
Saquon Barkley2432014%1.0
Grant Calcaterra122607%1.0
Parris Campbell4417114%2.2
Jahan Dotson2411014%-1.4
John Ross12607%0.1
Jack Stoll12407%-0.8
Kenneth Gainwell01003%-0.2
Johnny Wilson02007%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Darius Slay720.001
Tristin McCollum340.000
Nakobe Dean420.000
Quinyon Mitchell600.001
Zack Baun140.000
Reed Blankenship410.001
Nolan Smith140.000
Avonte Maddox320.002
Thomas Booker220.000
Milton Williams110.000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield30/473472029.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rachaad White10494.90-0.2
Bucky Irving10494.913.1
Baker Mayfield4102.51-1.0
Sean Tucker133.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Evans81494130%3.1
Chris Godwin6969019%4.1
Cade Otton6952019%-0.3
Sterling Shepard3551011%3.0
Rachaad White233506%2.3
Trey Palmer332616%2.3
Sean Tucker111402%0.9
Bucky Irving12604%-0.7
Kameron Johnson01002%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Lavonte David432.001
K.J. Britt420.000
Jordan Whitehead510.000
Anthony Nelson311.000
Jamel Dean220.002
Zyon McCollum120.000
Christian Izien210.000
Chris Braswell210.000
Vita Vea211.000
Logan Hall111.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
PHI -1
Closing total
42
PHI moneyline
-115
TB moneyline
-105

Eagles closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42; the game landed 49 — over by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
88°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
PHI 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches
Nick Sirianni vs Todd Bowles