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2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
EaglesPhiladelphia16
BY 17final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay33
Philadelphia Eagles 16 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33. Final.
Eagles -1 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33, Eagles 16 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 2:44, 1st and 10, on Jalen Hurts — 10.1 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:44 · 1st and 10
Jalen Hurts
Buccaneers
(2:44) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at TB 27 for -8 yards (54-L.David). FUMBLES (54-L.David), touched at TB 23, RECOVERED by TB-56-B.Stille at TB 24.
O 42 ✓
Eagles closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 2:44, Buccaneers +10.1% win probability on one snap.
10.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBuccaneersQ1 1:16(1:16) 16-T.Gill punts 42 yards to PHI 18, Center-45-Z.Triner. 33-C.DeJean MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-51-J.Russell at PHI 22.
8.9pts
Saquon BarkleyEaglesQ3 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle pushed ob at TB 11 for 59 yards (3-J.Whitehead).
8.3pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Eagles at 3 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.07 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Eagles166 of 173 plays carry both curves
(2:44) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at TB 27 for -8 yards (54-L.David). FUMBLES (54-L.David), touched at TB 23, RECOVERED by TB-56-B.Stille at TB 24.
Swing +10.1 for BuccaneersExpected points +5.66 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 4 points higher than the market did.play 130
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 2:44PHI +10% win prob(2:44) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at TB 27 for -8 yards (54-L.David). FUMBLES (54-L.David), touched at TB 23, RECOVERED by TB-56-B.Stille at TB 24.
1st · 1:16TB +9% win prob(1:16) 16-T.Gill punts 42 yards to PHI 18, Center-45-Z.Triner. 33-C.DeJean MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-51-J.Russell at PHI 22.
3rd · 15:00TB +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle pushed ob at TB 11 for 59 yards (3-J.Whitehead).
1st · 11:03TB +7% win prob(11:03) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White pushed ob at PHI 8 for 22 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
1st · 5:08TB +6% win prob(5:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 10-T.Palmer for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:28TB +6% win prob(10:28) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 14-C.Godwin to PHI 43 for 15 yards (34-I.Rodgers, 36-T.McCollum).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mike Evans's 2-yard touchdown catch with 9:48 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
4th13:04Chase McLaughlin·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap Z.Triner+316–33
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryBuccaneers
Eagles0–8Buccaneers
228Total yards446
4.1Yards per play6.1
44%Success rate51%
46%Third-down rate46%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
3Explosive plays8
15First downs27
6Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Buccaneers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Eagles: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.21Buccaneers: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.25Eagles: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.23Buccaneers: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.31Eagles: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.17Buccaneers: +0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 55 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 73 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 3, Buccaneers 6.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
TB's pass rate over expected, +15.8 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 6.2 points clear of the next team along.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TB's blitz rate sent, 70.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 8.7 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 18.3 points.
PHI's blitz rate sent turned over: 14.3% in week 3 against 34.0% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.1% in week 3 against 21.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 19 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.4 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Buccaneers21.6%
leaned — got home · +6.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteTB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 15.8 pts, 15.9 points above their season mean of -0.0 pts and 2.5 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts sacked−9% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:44) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at TB 27 for -8 yards (54-L.David). FUMBLES (54-L.David), touched at TB 23, RECOVERED by TB-56-B.Stille at TB 24.
Q3 2:44 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at TB 19 · lost 4 · -5.66 EP · −9.3% win probability
164 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 80 yards from the TB 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
49%
Yards
672
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58+0.2474%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.0162%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.0974%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.2225%
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.1560%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Eagles0Buccaneers6
Eagles0Buccaneers7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the Eagles 2
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 37
Eagles0Buccaneers13
Eagles0Buccaneers14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Eagles 15
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 33
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Eagles 49
The period ended3 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Eagles 7
2nd quarter60 plays
Eagles0Buccaneers20
Eagles0Buccaneers21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Eagles 3 to the Eagles 1
Punt5 plays
Eagles0Buccaneers24
Field goal14 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Eagles 3
Eagles6Buccaneers24
Eagles7Buccaneers24
Touchdown17 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 43
The period ended5 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 25
The period ended7 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Buccaneers 47
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Eagles13Buccaneers24
Eagles14Buccaneers24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Buccaneers 1
Eagles14Buccaneers30
Eagles16Buccaneers30
Touchdown14 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Eagles 1
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Buccaneers 19
The period ended6 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Eagles 46
4th quarter37 plays
Eagles16Buccaneers33
Field goal6 plays, from the Eagles 45 to the Eagles 32
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Buccaneers 43
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the Buccaneers 38
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Eagles 23 to midfield
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the Eagles 17
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
