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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Steelers168 of 176 plays carry both curves
(1:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Fields FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 36, and recovers at PIT 30. 2-J.Fields to PIT 30 for no gain (45-E.Speed).
Swing +13.4 for ColtsExpected points +1.49 for ColtsThe model had Colts 6 points higher than the market did.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:43PIT +13% win prob(1:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Fields FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 36, and recovers at PIT 30. 2-J.Fields to PIT 30 for no gain (45-E.Speed).
4th · 0:37PIT +12% win prob(:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass incomplete deep right to 11-V.Jefferson [95-A.Adebawore].
4th · 2:46IND +12% win prob(2:46) 8-R.Sanchez punts 58 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.
3rd · 2:41IND +10% win prob(2:41) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to IND 42 for 12 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
4th · 3:45IND +10% win prob(3:45) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:52PIT +10% win prob(2:52) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 10-A.Mitchell.
4th · 2:58
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jonathan Taylor's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 12:09 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:09Jonathan Taylor·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st2:38Josh Downs·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+70–14
2nd12:34Matt Gay·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+30–17
2nd0:03Chris Boswell·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+33–17
Steelers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Steelers: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.11Colts: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Steelers: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.34Colts: +0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Steelers: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.13Colts: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 67 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Colts’s 63 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Colts 5.
NoteSteelers outgained Colts 404-359 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 12 pts
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Colts17.1%
inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteIND's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 41.7 points below their season mean of 41.7% and 1.5 times their own 27.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
49 dressed · 6 inactive · 4 never used
66Mason McCormickG · Every snap100%70 snaps
77Broderick JonesT · Every snap100%70 snaps
65Dan Moore Jr.T · Every snap100%70 snaps
54Zach FrazierC · Every snap100%70 snaps
2Justin FieldsQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
74Spencer AndersonT · Full-time91%64 snaps
14George PickensWR · Full-time86%60 snaps
11Van JeffersonWR · Full-time86%60 snaps
88Pat FreiermuthTE · Heavy rotation76%53 snaps
22Najee HarrisRB · Heavy rotation69%48 snaps
80Darnell WashingtonTE · Heavy rotation57%40 snaps
19Calvin Austin IIIWR · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
83Connor HeywardTE · Rotational26%18 snaps
33Aaron ShampklinRB · Situational19%13 snaps
13Scott MillerWR · Situational13%9 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Situational13%9 snaps
78James DanielsG · Situational9%6 snaps
62Ryan McCollumC · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Darius RushCBAlex HighsmithOLBRussell WilsonQBJaylen WarrenRBMyCole PruittTERoman WilsonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Isaac SeumaloGKyle AllenQBCalvin AndersonTRod WilliamsTE
Indianapolis Colts
49 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
75Will FriesG · Every snap100%66 snaps
60Tanor BortoliniC · Every snap100%66 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%66 snaps
72Braden SmithT · Every snap100%66 snaps
79Bernhard RaimannT · Every snap100%66 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time88%58 snaps
14Alec PierceWR · Full-time83%55 snaps
15Joe FlaccoQB · Full-time80%53 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Heavy rotation73%48 snaps
1Josh DownsWR · Heavy rotation62%41 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational47%31 snaps
85Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational36%24 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Rotational30%20 snaps
27Trey SermonRB · Rotational26%17 snaps
5Anthony RichardsonQB · Situational20%13 snaps
10Adonai MitchellWR · Situational20%13 snaps
16Ashton DulinWR · Situational17%11 snaps
86Will MalloryTE · Situational17%11 snaps
31Tyler GoodsonRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Ryan KellyCKenny Moore IICBGenard AveryDEKwity PayeDESam EhlingerQBAnthony GouldWR
2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fields pass−9% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:07) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short left to 22-N.Harris to PIT 41 for 11 yards (45-E.Speed).
Q4 1:07 · Steelers · 3rd & 22 at PIT 30 · gained 11 · -0.18 EP · −9.3% win probability
166 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 91 yards from the PIT 4 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
47%
Yards
762
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.1347%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.1958%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.1856%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1664%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-1.1150%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Steelers0Colts6
Steelers0Colts7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Steelers 2
Punt11 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Colts 36
Steelers0Colts13
Steelers0Colts14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 14 to the Steelers 4
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 39
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Steelers0Colts17
Field goal7 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Steelers 14
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 37
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Steelers 41
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Steelers 4 to the Colts 15
The period ended10 plays, from the Colts 3 to the Colts 41
Steelers3Colts17
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Colts 31
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Colts 48
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 12 to the Colts 21
Fumble lost3 plays
No good4 plays, from the Steelers 42 to the Steelers 36
Steelers9Colts17
Steelers10Colts17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 44 to the Colts 5
The period ended10 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Steelers 40
4th quarter50 plays
Steelers10Colts23
Steelers10Colts24
Touchdown4 plays
Steelers16Colts24
Steelers17Colts24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Colts 2
Steelers17Colts27
Field goal12 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Steelers 14
Steelers23Colts27
Steelers24Colts27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Colts 8
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 33
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Steelers 17 to the Steelers 42
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -2.5
Closing total
40
Steelers moneyline
-130
Colts moneyline
+110
Steelers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40; the game landed 51 — over by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Steelers 7 days · Colts 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Shane Steichen
PIT +9% win prob
(2:58) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at IND 25 for -8 yards (sack split by 97-Ca.Heyward and 99-L.Ogunjobi).
2nd · 3:13PIT +8% win prob(3:13) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short left to 14-G.Pickens to IND 5 for 10 yards (20-N.Cross). FUMBLES (20-N.Cross), RECOVERED by IND-32-J.Blackmon at IND 3.
