2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

PIT -2.5 upsetO 40 ✓DomeSteelers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Indianapolis Colts 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:43, PIT +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:43PIT 24 — IND 27PIT ball · 1st & 10IND 64%

(1:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Fields FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 36, and recovers at PIT 30. 2-J.Fields to PIT 30 for no gain (45-E.Speed).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:43PIT +13% win prob(1:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Fields FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 36, and recovers at PIT 30. 2-J.Fields to PIT 30 for no gain (45-E.Speed).
Q4 · 0:37PIT +12% win prob(:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass incomplete deep right to 11-V.Jefferson [95-A.Adebawore].
Q4 · 2:46IND +12% win prob(2:46) 8-R.Sanchez punts 58 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.
Q3 · 2:41IND +10% win prob(2:41) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to IND 42 for 12 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:09IND Touchdown
(12:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 0 — IND 7
Q1 · 2:38IND Touchdown
(2:38) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 1-J.Downs for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 0 — IND 14
Q2 · 12:34IND Field goal
(12:34) 7-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: PIT 0 — IND 17
Q2 · 0:03PIT Field goal
(:03) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: PIT 3 — IND 17
Q3 · 2:59PIT Touchdown
(2:59) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields scrambles right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 10 — IND 17
Q4 · 14:50IND Touchdown
(14:50) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle to 85-A.Ogletree for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 10 — IND 24
Q4 · 11:29PIT Touchdown
(11:29) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields scrambles left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 17 — IND 24
Q4 · 6:06IND Field goal
(6:06) 7-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: PIT 17 — IND 27
Q4 · 3:45PIT Touchdown
(3:45) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 24 — IND 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Colts
Offensive plays	67	63
Total yards	404 (edge)	359
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	5.7
Expected points added / play	-0.06	0.11 (edge)
Success rate	46% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	61%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04	0.34 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	-0.13 (edge)
Third downs	6/12	8/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	9
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	20
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Steelers outgained Colts 404–359 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Justin FieldsQB

22/34, 312 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.6 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Joe FlaccoQB

16/26, 168 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.8 expected points added · +5.1% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

21 att, 88 yds, 1 TD

-4.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Justin FieldsQB

10 att, 55 yds, 2 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

6/9 for 113 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

George PickensWR

7/11 for 113 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 30	10	70	2:59	Touchdown +7
2	PIT	PIT 30	10	29	4:42	Punt
3	IND	IND 14	10	83	4:45	Touchdown +7
4	PIT	PIT 30	5	9	2:06	Turnover on downs
5	IND	PIT 39	9	25	2:57	Field goal +3
6	PIT	PIT 30	5	7	1:33	Punt
7	IND	IND 28	5	29	2:44	Punt
8	PIT	PIT 4	9	91	5:10	Fumble
9	IND	IND 3	7	33	1:50	Punt
10	PIT	PIT 25	8	44	1:14	Field goal +3
11	PIT	PIT 30	8	22	4:35	Punt
12	IND	IND 12	4	9	1:39	Punt
13	PIT	IND 33	3	-22	0:58	Fumble
14	IND	PIT 42	4	6	1:59	Missed field goal
15	PIT	PIT 44	7	61	2:56	Touchdown +7
16	IND	IND 30	12	55	3:10	Touchdown +7
17	PIT	PIT 30	10	57	3:20	Touchdown +7
18	IND	IND 30	11	54	5:20	Field goal +3
19	PIT	PIT 30	9	70	2:23	Touchdown +7
20	IND	IND 30	5	-5	1:01	Punt
21	PIT	PIT 17	7	36	2:10	Turnover on downs
22	IND	PIT 41	1	0	0:29	End of game

9 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 91 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a fumble.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	22/34	312	1	0	4	3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Justin Fields	10	55	5.5	2	2.0
Cordarrelle Patterson	6	43	7.2	0	1.9
Najee Harris	13	19	1.5	0	-5.4
Aaron Shampklin	1	5	5.0	0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Pickens	7	11	113	0	34%	1.7
Pat Freiermuth	5	7	57	1	22%	0.2
Najee Harris	3	6	54	0	19%	2.0
Darnell Washington	2	2	31	0	6%	2.4
Van Jefferson	2	3	21	0	9%	-1.3
Cordarrelle Patterson	2	2	19	0	6%	-1.0
Calvin Austin	1	1	17	0	3%	2.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
DeShon Elliott	6	4	0.0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	5	3	0.0	0
Patrick Queen	1	5	0.0	0
Cameron Heyward	2	4	1.0	0
Payton Wilson	3	3	0.0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	2	3	0.5	0
Joey Porter	3	1	0.0	1
Keeanu Benton	3	0	0.0	1
Nick Herbig	1	1	0.0	0
Donte Jackson	2	0	0.0	1

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	16/26	168	2	0	2	7.8
Anthony Richardson	3/4	71	0	0	0	4.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	21	88	4.2	1	-4.7
Anthony Richardson	3	24	8.0	0	2.2
Adonai Mitchell	1	10	10.0	0	1.1
Trey Sermon	5	8	1.6	0	-2.7
Joe Flacco	2	3	1.5	0	-3.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	6	9	113	0	32%	5.4
Josh Downs	8	9	82	1	32%	9.5
Jonathan Taylor	3	4	20	0	14%	0.3
Andrew Ogletree	1	1	15	1	4%	3.1
Alec Pierce	1	2	9	0	7%	-0.4
Adonai Mitchell	0	3	0	0	11%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
E.J. Speed	11	1	0.0	0
Nick Cross	7	1	0.0	0
Zaire Franklin	4	3	0.0	0
Julian Blackmon	3	3	0.5	0
Jaylon Jones	5	0	0.0	1
Chris Lammons	3	1	1.0	0
Dayo Odeyingbo	1	2	1.5	0
Jaylon Carlies	1	1	0.0	0
Tyquan Lewis	0	2	0.5	0
Raekwon Davis	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -2.5
Closing total: 40
PIT moneyline: -130
IND moneyline: +110

Steelers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40; the game landed 51 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: PIT 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Shane Steichen