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Detroit Lions 42, Seahawks 29 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 1:06, 1st and 10, on DK Metcalf — 13.6 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:06 · 1st and 10
DK Metcalf
Lions
(1:06) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf to DET 34 for 14 yards (46-J.Campbell; 34-A.Anzalone). FUMBLES (46-J.Campbell), RECOVERED by DET-23-C.Davis at DET 37. 23-C.Davis pushed ob at SEA 14 for 49 yards (9-K.Walker).
Dome
Lions closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 13.
Detroit Lions 42–29. Biggest swing: Q1 1:06, Lions +13.6% win probability on one snap.
13.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jared GoffSeahawksQ1 13:35(13:35) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 17 for -14 yards (90-Ja.Reed).
10.4pts
Jameson WilliamsLionsQ3 3:03(3:03) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 9-J.Williams for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-9-J.Williams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
10.3pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.89 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at +0.03 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Lions won this one — 5 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Seahawks at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.46 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at +0.09 expected points per snap.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 2 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Seahawks175 of 185 plays carry both curves
(1:06) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf to DET 34 for 14 yards (46-J.Campbell; 34-A.Anzalone). FUMBLES (46-J.Campbell), RECOVERED by DET-23-C.Davis at DET 37. 23-C.Davis pushed ob at SEA 14 for 49 yard
Swing +13.6 for LionsExpected points +8.12 for LionsThe model had Seahawks 4 points higher than the market did.play 31
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:06SEA +14% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf to DET 34 for 14 yards (46-J.Campbell; 34-A.Anzalone). FUMBLES (46-J.Campbell), RECOVERED by DET-23-C.Davis at DET 37. 23-C.Davis pushed ob at SEA 14 for 49 yards (9-K.Walker).
1st · 13:35SEA +10% win prob(13:35) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 17 for -14 yards (90-Ja.Reed).
3rd · 3:03DET +10% win prob(3:03) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 9-J.Williams for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-9-J.Williams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
3rd · 9:53DET +8% win prob(9:53) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 88-A.Barner for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:12DET +8% win prob(10:12) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:57DET +7% win prob(14:57) 9-K.Walker left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
David Montgomery's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 3:16 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:16David Montgomery·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
4th5:29Amon-Ra St. Brown·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+727–42
4th2:05Dre'Mont Jones·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+229–42
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryLions
Seahawks3–4Lions
516Total yards391
6.5Yards per play8.1
51%Success rate56%
50%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns5
11Explosive plays8
35First downs20
3Sacks taken3
2Turnovers0
The read
Lions ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.89 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Seahawks: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.46Lions: +0.46 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.03Seahawks: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.89Lions: +0.89 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.32Seahawks: +0.32 expected points added per play
+0.09Lions: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 79 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Lions’s 48 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 6, Lions 5.
NoteSeahawks outgained Lions 516-391 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SEA's early-down pass rate, 77.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 5.6 points clear of the next team along.
66 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
DET's pass rate over expected turned over: −14.3 pts in week 3 against −2.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +0.6 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Lions12.7%
right on their number · −2.9 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 63 dropbacks
NoteSEA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.3%, 15.9 points above their season mean of 61.4% and 1.3 times their own 12.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
70Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%90 snaps
67Charles CrossT · Every snap100%90 snaps
78Stone ForsytheT · Every snap100%90 snaps
57Connor WilliamsC · Every snap100%90 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Every snap100%90 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Full-time84%76 snaps
14DK MetcalfWR · Full-time82%74 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Heavy rotation71%64 snaps
75Anthony BradfordG · Heavy rotation60%54 snaps
9Kenneth Walker IIIRB · Heavy rotation59%53 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Heavy rotation57%51 snaps
26Zach CharbonnetRB · Rotational42%38 snaps
64Christian HaynesG · Rotational40%36 snaps
88AJ BarnerTE · Rotational39%35 snaps
86Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational31%28 snaps
19Jake BoboWR · Rotational30%27 snaps
38Brady RussellTE · Situational3%3 snaps
1Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Leonard WilliamsDTByron Murphy IIDTJerome BakerILBBoye MafeOLBUchenna NwosuOLBSataoa LaumeaTMichael JerrellT
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Olu OluwatimiCSam HowellQB
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 3 never used
74Kayode AwosikaT · Every snap100%53 snaps
71Kevin ZeitlerG · Every snap100%53 snaps
60Graham GlasgowG · Every snap100%53 snaps
58Penei SewellT · Every snap100%53 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%53 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%53 snaps
9Jameson WilliamsWR · Full-time96%51 snaps
87Sam LaPortaTE · Full-time89%47 snaps
14Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Full-time89%47 snaps
26Jahmyr GibbsRB · Heavy rotation57%30 snaps
89Brock WrightTE · Heavy rotation55%29 snaps
17Tim PatrickWR · Rotational40%21 snaps
5David MontgomeryRB · Rotational40%21 snaps
43Parker HesseTE · Situational13%7 snaps
11Kalif RaymondWR · Situational11%6 snaps
70Dan SkipperT · Situational8%4 snaps
13Craig ReynoldsRB · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 4
Frank RagnowCBrian BranchSSGiovanni ManuTIsaiah WilliamsWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Smith pass−17% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:06) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf to DET 34 for 14 yards (46-J.Campbell; 34-A.Anzalone). FUMBLES (46-J.Campbell), RECOVERED by DET-23-C.Davis at DET 37. 23-C.Davis pushed ob at SEA 14 for 49 yards (9-K.Walker).
Q1 1:06 · Seahawks · 1st & 10 at DET 48 · gained 11 · -8.12 EP · −16.8% win probability
173 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 180. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 93 yards from the DET 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
+0.17
Success rate
52%
Yards
905
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58+0.1488%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.3156%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.6432%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.1050%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Lions 31
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to midfield
Seahawks0Lions6
Seahawks0Lions7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 7 to the Seahawks 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Lions 48
The period ended3 plays, from the Seahawks 14 to the Seahawks 13
2nd quarter53 plays
Seahawks0Lions13
Seahawks0Lions14
Touchdown2 plays
Seahawks6Lions14
Seahawks7Lions14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Lions 1
Seahawks7Lions20
Seahawks7Lions21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Seahawks 1
Punt12 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Lions 43
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 15 to the Lions 17
No good5 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Lions 44
3rd quarter42 plays
Seahawks13Lions21
Seahawks14Lions21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Lions 9
Seahawks14Lions27
Seahawks14Lions28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Seahawks 7
Seahawks20Lions28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Lions 1
Seahawks20Lions34
Seahawks20Lions35
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Lions 35
4th quarter56 plays
Seahawks26Lions35
Seahawks27Lions35
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 39
Punt10 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Lions 38
Seahawks27Lions41
Seahawks27Lions42
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Seahawks 8
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Lions 3
Seahawks29Lions42
The period ended3 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Lions 20
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Seahawkscategory by categoryLions
Seahawks0
Lions6
