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2024 Week 4 · Mon, Sep 30, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

31

Miami Dolphins

12

MIA -2.5 upsetO 37 ✓

Tennessee Titans 31–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 6:52, MIA +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIA ↑TEN ↓
Q3 · 6:52TEN 9 — MIA 6TEN ball · 2nd & 9TEN 64%

(6:52) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle pushed ob at MIA 7 for 41 yards (8-J.Holland).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 6:52MIA +11% win prob(6:52) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle pushed ob at MIA 7 for 41 yards (8-J.Holland).
  2. Q2 · 14:21MIA +10% win prob(14:21) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
  3. Q1 · 8:37TEN +10% win prob(8:37) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 40, touched at TEN 39, RECOVERED by TEN-49-A.Key at TEN 36.
  4. Q2 · 8:26MIA +10% win prob(8:26) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 14:21TEN Field goal

    (14:21) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    Score after this play: TEN 3 — MIA 0
  2. Q2 · 8:26TEN Field goal

    (8:26) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    Score after this play: TEN 6 — MIA 0
  3. Q2 · 4:18MIA Field goal

    (4:18) 7-J.Sanders 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: TEN 6 — MIA 3
  4. Q2 · 0:01TEN Field goal

    (:01) 6-N.Folk 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    Score after this play: TEN 9 — MIA 3
  5. Q3 · 9:07MIA Field goal

    (9:07) 7-J.Sanders 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: TEN 9 — MIA 6
  6. Q3 · 6:04TEN Touchdown

    (6:04) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 2-T.Spears. 2-T.Spears right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 16 — MIA 6
  7. Q3 · 0:41TEN Field goal

    (:41) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    Score after this play: TEN 19 — MIA 6
  8. Q4 · 10:49TEN Field goal

    (10:49) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    Score after this play: TEN 22 — MIA 6
  9. Q4 · 3:40MIA Touchdown

    (3:40) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: TEN 22 — MIA 12
  10. Q4 · 2:33TEN Safety

    (2:33) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right [58-H.Landry]. PENALTY on MIA-18-T.Huntley, Intentional Grounding, 8 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY.

    Score after this play: TEN 24 — MIA 12
  11. Q4 · 0:30TEN Touchdown

    (:30) 60-D.Brunskill and 61-J.Ojukwu reported in as eligible. 20-T.Pollard right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 31 — MIA 12

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTitansDolphins
Offensive plays6155
Total yards244 (edge)184
Yards per play4.0 (edge)3.3
Expected points added / play-0.12 (edge)-0.44
Success rate34% (edge)27%
Dropback rate36%49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.38 (edge)-0.39
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.02 (edge)-0.49
Third downs2/122/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)44
First downs gained on snaps13 (edge)11
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers11

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.44.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tyler HuntleyQB

14/22, 96 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-11.8 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Mason RudolphQB

9/17, 85 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-3.9 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Tony PollardRB

22 att, 88 yds, 1 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Tyler HuntleyQB

8 att, 40 yds, 1 TD

-3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

4/6 for 36 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

DeAndre HopkinsWR

2/4 for 31 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · -2.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TENTEN 288244:55Interception
2MIAMIA 374311:32Fumble
3TENTEN 36492:22Punt
4MIAMIA 134-41:57Punt
5TENTEN 449214:58Field goal +3
6MIAMIA 30591:55Turnover on downs
7TENTEN 478294:01Field goal +3
8MIAMIA 3011294:07Field goal +3
9TENTEN 306242:05Punt
10MIAMIA 20460:28Punt
11TENTEN 345190:43Punt
12MIAMIA 25460:41Punt
13TENTEN 443270:16Field goal +3
14MIAMIA 30511:03Punt
15TENTEN 144-32:17Punt
16MIATEN 48552:38Field goal +3
17TENTEN 307553:02Touchdown +7
18MIAMIA 305-71:40Punt
19TENMIA 446153:44Field goal +3
20MIAMIA 30581:28Turnover on downs
21TENMIA 388123:23Field goal +3
22MIAMIA 3013857:09Touchdown +6
23TENMIA 45521:03Punt
24MIAMIA 8100:06Safety
25TENMIA 106102:03Touchdown +7
26MIAMIA 303150:24End of game

10 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 85 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Mason Rudolph9/1785001-3.9
Will Levis3/425010-3.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tony Pollard22884.01-0.5
Tyjae Spears15392.61-0.0
Calvin Ridley11010.001.0
Will Levis252.50-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DeAndre Hopkins2431022%-2.6
Tyler Boyd2231011%1.2
Tony Pollard2220011%0.5
Treylon Burks111306%1.6
Calvin Ridley135017%-2.8
Josh Whyle11506%1.3
Chigoziem Okonkwo135017%-1.9
Tyjae Spears220011%-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kenneth Murray530.000
T'Vondre Sweat330.000
Sebastian Joseph331.000
Harold Landry141.000
Amani Hooker320.001
Jarvis Brownlee410.000
Quandre Diggs400.000
Ernest Jones220.000
L'Jarius Sneed210.000
Darrell Baker210.000

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tyler Huntley14/2296002-11.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tyler Huntley8405.01-3.5
Jaylen Wright9323.60-0.5
Tyreek Hill3196.30-3.1
Devon Achane10151.50-5.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaylen Waddle4636029%1.1
Tyreek Hill4723033%-3.4
Tanner Conner2215010%-0.2
Devon Achane3314014%-1.0
Malik Washington11805%0.1
Jaylen Wright01005%-0.4
Jonnu Smith01005%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordyn Brooks641.001
Anthony Walker360.000
Emmanuel Ogbah330.011
Duke Riley320.000
Jevon Holland320.000
Zach Sieler230.000
Benito Jones130.000
Calais Campbell310.000
Marcus Maye130.000
Quinton Bell120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Closing total
37
TEN moneyline
+114
MIA moneyline
-135

Dolphins closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 37; the game landed 43 — over by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
86°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
TEN 8 days · MIA 8 days
Coaches
Brian Callahan vs Mike McDaniel