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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Titans161 of 172 plays carry both curves
(6:52) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle pushed ob at MIA 7 for 41 yards (8-J.Holland).
Swing −11.3 for DolphinsExpected points −3.27 for DolphinsThe model had Titans 3 points higher than the market did.play 108
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 6:52MIA +11% win prob(6:52) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle pushed ob at MIA 7 for 41 yards (8-J.Holland).
2nd · 14:21MIA +10% win prob(14:21) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
1st · 8:37TEN +10% win prob(8:37) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 40, touched at TEN 39, RECOVERED by TEN-49-A.Key at TEN 36.
2nd · 8:26MIA +10% win prob(8:26) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
2nd · 0:16MIA +9% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd to MIA 29 for 27 yards (4-K.Kohou).
1st · 10:08TEN +8% win prob(10:08) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 91-E.Ogbah at MIA 37. 91-E.Ogbah to MIA 37 for no gain (10-D.Hopkins).
3rd · 12:31
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Folk's 53-yard field goal with 14:21 left in the 2nd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd14:21Nick Folk·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+33–0
2nd8:26Nick Folk·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+36–0
2nd4:18Jason Sanders·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap B.Ferguson+36–3
2nd0:01Nick Folk·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+39–3
3rd9:07Jason Sanders·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap B.Ferguson+39–6
Titans ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Titans: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.44Dolphins: −0.44 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.38Titans: −0.38 expected points added per play
−0.39Dolphins: −0.39 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Titans: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.49Dolphins: −0.49 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 61 snaps at a 36% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 55 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Dolphins 1.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.44.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TEN's early-down pass rate, 29.2%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 1.9 points clear of the next team along.
2.0 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 4.1-swing turn from week 3.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
MIA's pass rate over expected, −22.6 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 3.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
TEN's pass rate over expected turned over: +11.6 pts in week 3 against −20.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
TEN's blitz rate sent turned over: 52.0% in week 3 against 14.8% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 3.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 24 pts
leaned — got home · +6.5 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Dolphins13.6%
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
NoteTEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 29.2%, 25.6 points below their season mean of 54.8% and 2.0 times their own 12.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive
78Nicholas Petit-FrereT · Every snap100%65 snaps
75Dillon RadunzT · Every snap100%65 snaps
55JC LathamT · Every snap100%65 snaps
77Peter SkoronskiT · Every snap100%65 snaps
79Lloyd Cushenberry IIIC · Every snap100%65 snaps
11Mason RudolphQB · Full-time83%54 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Heavy rotation60%39 snaps
0Calvin RidleyWR · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
16Treylon BurksWR · Heavy rotation54%35 snaps
81Josh WhyleTE · Heavy rotation54%35 snaps
85Chig OkonkwoTE · Heavy rotation51%33 snaps
84Nick VannettTE · Rotational49%32 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Rotational49%32 snaps
2Tyjae SpearsRB · Rotational42%27 snaps
10DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational32%21 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational26%17 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillC · Situational17%11 snaps
8Will LevisQB · Situational17%11 snaps
61John OjukwuT · Situational8%5 snaps
Inactive · 7
Ali GayeDEJeffery SimmonsDTJulius WoodFSJames WilliamsILBJaelyn DuncanTDavid Martin-RobinsonTEThomas OdukoyaTE
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Huntley FUMBLES−14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:37) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 40, touched at TEN 39, RECOVERED by TEN-49-A.Key at TEN 36.
Q1 8:37 · Dolphins · 2nd & 9 at TEN 32 · gained nothing · -5.22 EP · −14.3% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 70 yards from the TEN 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
37%
Yards
428
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.1152%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR26-0.3842%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.3329%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR12+0.0575%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.7418%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.1917%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR5-0.110%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Dolphins0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Dolphins 43
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Dolphins 37 to the Titans 32
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Titans 45
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 13 to the Dolphins 17
The period ended8 plays, from the Titans 44 to the Dolphins 30
2nd quarter56 plays
Titans3Dolphins0
Field goal2 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Titans 46
Titans6Dolphins0
Field goal9 plays, from the Titans 47 to the Dolphins 29
Titans6Dolphins3
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Titans 26
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Dolphins 46
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 26
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 34 to the Dolphins 47
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 32
Titans9Dolphins3
Field goal3 plays, from the Titans 44 to the Dolphins 29
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 31
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 14 to the Titans 19
Titans9Dolphins6
Field goal5 plays, from the Titans 48 to the Titans 38
Titans15Dolphins6
Titans16Dolphins6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Dolphins 7
Punt5 plays
Titans19Dolphins6
Field goal7 plays, from the Dolphins 44 to the Dolphins 28
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Dolphins 39
Titans22Dolphins6
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Dolphins 10
Titans22Dolphins12
Touchdown16 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Titans 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to the Dolphins 43
Titans24Dolphins12
Titans30Dolphins12
Titans31Dolphins12
Touchdown7 plays, from the Dolphins 10 to the Dolphins 3
The period ended4 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
