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polling · 300s tick · as of 6:27 PM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · State Farm Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 4
It turned at Q2 10:26, 2nd and 4, on Jeremy McNichols — 14.5 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Washington Commanders 42–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:26, Commanders +14.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:26 · 2nd and 4
Jeremy McNichols
Commanders
(10:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Commanders won this one — 9 of 12 on third down, against Cardinals at 4 of 11 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Commanders won this one — +0.42 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.44 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at +0.04 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(10:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jeremy McNichols's 27-yard rushing touchdown with 10:26 left in the 2nd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Terry McLaurin10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Jayden Daniels · two-point good+835–149 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryCardinals
Commanders ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 68 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 58 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 6, Cardinals 2.
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.42 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's sack or hit rate, 2.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
ARI's pass rate over expected, −21.8 pts, sat 19.1 points below their season number of −2.7 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.6 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points. · −2.6σ from their own normal
ARI's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 20.0% in week 3 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 21.8 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
ARI's early-down pass rate turned over: 69.0% in week 3 against 43.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders3.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their -0.3 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 67 snaps
Cardinals-21.8 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −19.1 vs their -2.7 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−2.55× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 86%
Tendencies room →Commanders50.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 55.1%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 54 early downs
Cardinals43.2%leaned — ran early · −13.5 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 50%
Tendencies room →Commanders32.4%inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Cardinals14.8%leaned — dropped back clean · −12.3 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.62× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32% to 127%
Fourth Down room →Commanders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 51.7%.
Cardinals66.7%leaned — went for it · +39.4 vs their 27.3%, and they swing ±21.8 week to week (+1.80× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 65%
Tendencies room →Commanders33.3%right on their number · −3.5 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±10.7 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Cardinals13.5%leaned — sat back · −13.0 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 30%
Tendencies room →Commanders18.5%inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Cardinals2.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.3 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
ARI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -21.8 pts, 19.1 points below their season mean of -2.7 pts and 2.6 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
26/30, 233 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
14.2 expected points added · +14.3% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
16/22, 142 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-0.4 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected
Receiving · WAS
6/6 for 85 yds, 0 TD
20% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jeremy McNichols banked 14.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden DanielsQB · Starter QB | 24.0 | +2.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/30, 233 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 8 car, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 20.4 | +14.2 | 38% | 30% | 3% | 0% | 8 car, 68 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 20.3 | +4.6 | 63% | 49% | 10% | 0% | 21 car, 101 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 12 yd |
| James ConnerRB · Committee Back | 18.3 | +3.6 | 58% | 52% | 5% | 0% | 18 car, 104 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.2 | −0.8 | 71% | 70% | 33% | 59% | 7/10, 52 yd, 1 TD |
| Marvin HarrisonWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.5 | +2.9 | 92% | 96% | 27% | 30% | 5/6, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Featured Receiver | 14.5 | +5.4 | 25% | 24% | 20% | 9% | 6/6, 85 yd |
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 10.0 | +0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/22, 142 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 3 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Featured Receiver | 7.8 | +1.4 | 73% | 93% | 18% | 8% | 4/4, 38 yd |
| Zach ErtzTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +0.8 | 68% | 73% | 10% | 9% | 3/3, 22 yd |
| Noah BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −1.0 | 67% | 62% | 13% | 17% | 3/4, 26 yd |
| Trey BensonRB | 5.0 | +0.8 | 19% | 7% | 0% | — | 9 car, 50 yd |
| Michael WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 4.8 | −6.6 | 85% | 89% | 32% | 60% | 3/7, 38 yd |
| Emari DemercadoRB | 3.4 | −0.2 | 24% | 37% | 5% | 0% | 4 car, 24 yd · 1/1, 0 yd |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −0.8 | 68% | 93% | 14% | 4% | 2/3, 12 yd |
| Luke McCaffreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +0.5 | 44% | 38% | 3% | 7% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.8 | 56% | 30% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.1 | 25% | 19% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ben SinnottTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 42% | 24% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Colson YankoffTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 10:26 · Commanders · 2nd & 4 at ARI 27 · gained 27 · +2.88 EP · +8.5% win probability
154 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 93 yards from the WAS 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Commanders0
Cardinals6Commanders0Cardinals7Commanders6Cardinals7Commanders7Cardinals7Commanders13Cardinals7Commanders14Cardinals7Commanders17Cardinals7Commanders23Cardinals7Commanders24Cardinals7Commanders27Cardinals7Commanders27Cardinals13Commanders27Cardinals14Commanders33Cardinals14Commanders35Cardinals14Commanders41Cardinals14Commanders42Cardinals14Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Cardinals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 26/30 | 233 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +14.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 21 | 101 | 4.8 | 1 | +4.6 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 8 | 68 | 8.5 | 2 | +6.9 |
| Jayden Daniels | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 1 | +2.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 6 | 6 | 85 | 0 | 20% | +8.2 |
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 10 | 52 | 1 | 33% | +0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wagner | 7 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frankie Luvu | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorance Armstrong |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 16/22 | 142 | 1 | 0 | 4 | −0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_04_WAS_ARI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cardinals closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49; the game landed 56 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
| Noah Brown | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 13% | +2.8 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 10% | +1.7 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3% | +1.7 |
| Brian Robinson | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | −1.1 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 1.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quan Martin | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamin Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Igbinoghene | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mykal Walker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 |
| 104 |
| 5.8 |
| 1 |
| +2.4 |
| Trey Benson | 9 | 50 | 5.6 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Emari Demercado | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Kyler Murray | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 5 | 6 | 45 | 1 | 27% | +7.4 |
| Michael Wilson | 3 | 7 | 38 | 0 | 32% | −7.4 |
| Greg Dortch | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 18% | +2.0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 14% | +0.5 |
| James Conner | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budda Baker | 10 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyzir White | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Lopez | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bilal Nichols | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Gardeck | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Stills | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaven Collins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
