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2024 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2024 · State Farm Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

42

Arizona Cardinals

14

ARI -3.5 upsetO 49 ✓Dome

Washington Commanders 42–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:26, ARI +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ARI ↑WAS ↓
Q2 · 10:26WAS 13 — ARI 7WAS ball · 2nd & 4WAS 51%

(10:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 10:26ARI +14% win prob(10:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 6:50WAS +10% win prob(6:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 21-G.Williams at ARI 18. 21-G.Williams to ARI 18 for no gain (86-Z.Ertz).
  3. Q2 · 0:34WAS +8% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at WAS 42 for -7 yards (92-D.Armstrong).
  4. Q3 · 14:04ARI +8% win prob(14:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 85-N.Brown. PENALTY on ARI-23-S.Murphy-Bunting, Defensive Pass Interference, 47 yards, enforced at WAS 44 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:57ARI Touchdown

    (9:57) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — ARI 7
  2. Q1 · 5:17WAS Touchdown

    (5:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 7 — ARI 7
  3. Q2 · 10:26WAS Touchdown

    (10:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 14 — ARI 7
  4. Q2 · 0:03WAS Field goal

    (:03) 3-A.Seibert 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 17 — ARI 7
  5. Q3 · 13:57WAS Touchdown

    (13:57) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 24 — ARI 7
  6. Q3 · 5:19WAS Field goal

    (5:19) 3-A.Seibert 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 27 — ARI 7
  7. Q3 · 0:15ARI Touchdown

    (:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 27 — ARI 14
  8. Q4 · 8:35WAS Touchdown

    (8:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: WAS 35 — ARI 14
  9. Q4 · 4:33WAS Touchdown

    (4:33) 26-J.McNichols up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-26-J.McNichols, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 42 — ARI 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersCardinals
Offensive plays6858
Total yards451 (edge)296
Yards per play6.6 (edge)5.1
Expected points added / play0.42 (edge)-0.09
Success rate59% (edge)47%
Dropback rate54%47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.39 (edge)-0.23
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.44 (edge)0.04
Third downs9/12 (edge)4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)68 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps28 (edge)18
Sacks taken0 (edge)4
Turnovers11

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.42 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

26/30, 233 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

14.2 expected points added · +14.3% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

16/22, 142 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.4 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

18 att, 104 yds, 1 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

21 att, 101 yds, 1 TD

4.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Olamide ZaccheausWR

6/6 for 85 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

7/10 for 52 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ARIARI 4511555:06Touchdown +7
2WASWAS 3011704:41Touchdown +7
3ARIARI 308282:34Punt
4WASWAS 714937:21Touchdown +7
5ARIARI 28591:21Punt
6WASWAS 205312:16Interception
7ARIARI 18422:06Punt
8WASWAS 284-51:28Punt
9ARIARI 309282:38Turnover on downs
10WASWAS 425310:29Field goal +3
11WASWAS 305231:08Touchdown +7
12ARIARI 30641:59Punt
13WASWAS 4011456:37Field goal +3
14ARIARI 2613745:05Touchdown +7
15WASWAS 30141026:41Touchdown +8
16ARIARI 246521:19Fumble
17WASWAS 249612:41Touchdown +7
18ARIARI 249444:30End of game

9 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 102 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jayden Daniels26/3023311014.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Brian Robinson211014.814.6
Jeremy McNichols8688.526.9
Jayden Daniels8475.912.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Olamide Zaccheaus6685020%8.2
Terry McLaurin71052133%0.1
Noah Brown3426013%2.8
Zach Ertz3322010%1.7
Luke McCaffrey111703%1.7
Brian Robinson3312010%-1.1
John Bates11903%0.9
Jeremy McNichols11603%0.1
Dyami Brown11403%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner740.500
Jeremy Chinn630.000
Frankie Luvu520.500
Dorance Armstrong321.500
Benjamin St-Juste310.000
Quan Martin220.000
Jonathan Allen311.000
Jamin Davis210.000
Noah Igbinoghene030.001
Mykal Walker110.000

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kyler Murray16/22142104-0.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Conner181045.812.4
Trey Benson9505.60-1.0
Emari Demercado4246.00-0.1
Kyler Murray133.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Marvin Harrison5645127%7.4
Michael Wilson3738032%-7.4
Greg Dortch4438018%2.0
Elijah Higgins2312014%0.5
James Conner11905%0.4
Emari Demercado11005%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Budda Baker1040.000
Jalen Thompson260.000
Kyzir White530.000
Mack Wilson510.000
Roy Lopez230.000
Garrett Williams310.011
Bilal Nichols220.000
Dennis Gardeck310.000
Dante Stills210.000
Zaven Collins200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ARI -3.5
Closing total
49
WAS moneyline
+150
ARI moneyline
-180

Cardinals closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49; the game landed 56 — over by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
WAS 6 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Jonathan Gannon