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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2024 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 5
It turned at Q4 1:16, 1st and 10, on Kyzir White — 36.0 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Arizona Cardinals 24–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:16, Cardinals +36.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:16 · 1st and 10
Kyzir White
Cardinals
(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 7-K.White [34-J.Thompson] at 50. 7-K.White to 50 for no gain (85-G.Kittle).
36.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.31 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — 1 giveaway, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 11 on third down, against Cardinals at 3 of 10 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Cardinals won this one — 10 chunk plays, against 49ers at 7 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 7-K.White [34-J.Thompson] at 50. 7-K.White to 50 for no gain (85-G.Kittle).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chad Ryland's 35-yard field goal with 1:40 left in the 4th put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Chad Ryland35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.BrewerLead never changed again+324–2310 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by category49ers
Cardinals ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 56 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against 49ers’s 63 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, 49ers 6.
49ers outgained Cardinals 384-363 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's play-action rate, 42.4%, is past their previous high of 34.6% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
SF's blitz rate sent, 36.4%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 4 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
ARI's blitz rate sent, 43.9%, is past their previous high of 34.4% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
SF's sack or hit rate, 6.1%, is past their previous low of 12.5% in week 1 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals-5.9 ptsright on their number · −3.1 vs their -2.7 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 55 snaps
49ers3.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their -2.3 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 86%
Tendencies room →Cardinals52.3%right on their number · −4.4 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 44 early downs
49ers56.9%right on their number · +2.4 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 47%
Tendencies room →Cardinals42.4%off script — faked the run · +15.3 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+2.02× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
49ers24.4%inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32% to 83%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 27.3%.
49ers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 59%
Tendencies room →Cardinals43.9%leaned — sent pressure · +17.4 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+1.36× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
49ers36.4%leaned — sent pressure · +16.2 vs their 20.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+1.51× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →Cardinals12.2%right on their number · +0.2 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
49ers6.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.7 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
ARI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 42.4%, 15.3 points above their season mean of 27.1% and 2.0 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
19/35, 244 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-0.9 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
19/30, 195 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-1.8 expected points added · -2.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kyler Murray banked 7.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 24.1 | +7.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/30, 195 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 83 yd, 1 TD |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.7 | +1.6 | 92% | 93% | 38% | 50% | 8/12, 147 yd |
| George KittleTE · Alpha Receiver | 20.4 | −5.9 | 91% | 98% | 38% | 27% | 8/12, 64 yd, 1 TD |
| James ConnerRB · Bell Cow Back | 14.0 | +0.1 | 79% | 70% | 10% | 0% | 19 car, 86 yd · 2/3, 14 yd |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 13.1 | −15.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/35, 244 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 33 yd |
| Michael WilsonWR · Featured Receiver | 12.8 | +2.4 | 72% | 85% | 20% | 43% | 5/6, 78 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Alpha Receiver | 11.3 | −4.8 | 88% | 88% | 30% | 27% | 6/9, 53 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB · Committee Back | 8.8 | −1.4 | 64% | 63% | 3% | 1% | 14 car, 89 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +3.6 | 41% | 30% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Marvin HarrisonWR · Featured Receiver | 5.6 | −6.0 | 76% | 88% | 23% | 43% | 2/7, 36 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −4.4 | 81% | 80% | 9% | 7% | 3 car, 9 yd · 1/3, 11 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −8.2 | 56% | 63% | 13% | 14% | 1/4, 13 yd |
| Isaac GuerendoRB | 2.2 | −1.0 | 14% | 7% | 0% | — | 5 car, 22 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −0.6 | 41% | 55% | 7% | 0% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Tip ReimanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.2 | 45% | 27% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Emari DemercadoRB | 1.0 | −0.5 | 22% | 33% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Patrick TaylorRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Trent TaylorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 7-K.White [34-J.Thompson] at 50. 7-K.White to 50 for no gain (85-G.Kittle).
Q4 1:16 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SF 42 · gained nothing · -2.38 EP · −35.7% win probability
149 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 76 yards from the SF 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Cardinals6
49ers0Cardinals749ers0Cardinals749ers3Cardinals749ers9Cardinals749ers10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Cardinals1049ers10Cardinals1049ers13Cardinals1049ers19Cardinals1049ers20How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
Cardinals1049ers23Cardinals1349ers23Cardinals1949ers23Cardinals2149ers23How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, caught in traffic.
Cardinals2449ers23How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
It should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 19/30 | 195 | 1 | 1 | 1 | −1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 19 | 86 | 4.5 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Kyler Murray | 7 | 83 | 11.9 | 1 | +5.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson | 5 | 6 | 78 | 0 | 20% | +5.7 |
| Trey McBride | 6 | 9 | 53 | 0 | 30% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budda Baker | 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaven Collins | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Stills |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 19/35 | 244 | 1 | 2 | 2 | −0.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_05_ARI_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 47 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| −0.9 |
| Marvin Harrison | 2 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 23% | +1.6 |
| James Conner | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 10% | −5.4 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −0.8 |
| Tip Reiman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.3 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Mack Wilson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Krys Barnes | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Naquan Jones | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kyzir White | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Mason | 14 | 89 | 6.4 | 0 | −4.0 |
| Brock Purdy | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Deebo Samuel | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 8 | 12 | 147 | 0 | 38% | +9.9 |
| George Kittle | 8 | 12 | 64 | 1 | 38% | −5.6 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 13% | +0.4 |
| Deebo Samuel | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9% | −0.4 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Vondre Campbell | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Leonard Floyd | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Yiadom | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dee Winters | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
