2024 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2024 · Levi's Stadium

Arizona CardinalsWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -7 upsetU 48.5 ✓49ers closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 24–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:16, ARI +36% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:16ARI 24 — SF 23SF ball · 1st & 10ARI 55%

(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 7-K.White [34-J.Thompson] at 50. 7-K.White to 50 for no gain (85-G.Kittle).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:16ARI +36% win prob(1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 7-K.White [34-J.Thompson] at 50. 7-K.White to 50 for no gain (85-G.Kittle).
Q4 · 6:20ARI +20% win prob(6:20) 24-J.Mason left end to ARI 12 for -4 yards (7-K.White, 43-J.Luketa). FUMBLES (43-J.Luketa), RECOVERED by ARI-2-Ma.Wilson at ARI 9.
Q4 · 2:49SF +18% win prob(2:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison to SF 46 for 14 yards (22-I.Yiadom) [56-L.Floyd].
Q2 · 5:09ARI +17% win prob(5:09) 38-C.Ryland 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-J.Elliott), Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin, RECOVERED by SF-2-D.Lenoir at SF 39. 2-D.Lenoir for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 13:20ARI Touchdown
(13:20) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right tackle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 7 — SF 0
Q1 · 10:29SF Field goal
(10:29) 4-J.Moody 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: ARI 7 — SF 3
Q1 · 2:22SF Touchdown
(2:22) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 7 — SF 10
Q2 · 12:47ARI Field goal
(12:47) 38-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: ARI 10 — SF 10
Q2 · 7:02SF Field goal
(7:02) 4-J.Moody 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: ARI 10 — SF 13
Q2 · 5:09SF Touchdown
(5:09) 38-C.Ryland 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-J.Elliott), Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin, RECOVERED by SF-2-D.Lenoir at SF 39. 2-D.Lenoir for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 10 — SF 20
Q2 · 0:01SF Field goal
(:01) 3-M.Wishnowsky 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-44-K.Juszczyk.
Score after this play: ARI 10 — SF 23
Q3 · 10:03ARI Field goal
(10:03) 38-C.Ryland 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: ARI 13 — SF 23
Q4 · 11:30ARI Touchdown
(11:30) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 84-E.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-91-S.Okuayinonu, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: ARI 21 — SF 23
Q4 · 1:40ARI Field goal
(1:40) 38-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: ARI 24 — SF 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	49ers
Offensive plays	56	63
Total yards	363	384 (edge)
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	6.1
Expected points added / play	0.12 (edge)	-0.04
Success rate	45% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	59%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01	0.04 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.31 (edge)	-0.20
Third downs	3/10	6/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	20	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

49ers outgained Cardinals 384–363 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

19/35, 244 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-0.9 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

19/30, 195 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-1.8 expected points added · -2.2% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Jordan MasonRB

14 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

-4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

19 att, 86 yds, 0 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

8/12 for 147 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 9.9 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Michael WilsonWR

5/6 for 78 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 30	5	2	1:01	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 28	3	72	0:47	Touchdown +7
3	SF	SF 30	7	60	2:47	Field goal +3
4	ARI	ARI 30	5	0	0:54	Punt
5	SF	SF 24	14	76	7:11	Touchdown +7
6	ARI	ARI 30	11	58	4:37	Field goal +3
7	SF	SF 30	12	78	5:44	Field goal +3
8	ARI	ARI 30	6	38	2:00	Field goal
9	ARI	ARI 38	7	38	3:09	Interception
10	SF	ARI 40	8	33	1:50	Field goal +3
11	ARI	ARI 26	5	1	1:31	Punt
12	SF	SF 13	4	11	1:37	Interception
13	ARI	SF 25	4	6	1:53	Field goal +3
14	SF	SF 30	12	48	7:07	Turnover on downs
15	ARI	ARI 27	13	75	6:27	Touchdown +8
16	SF	SF 30	9	61	5:14	Fumble
17	ARI	ARI 9	14	75	4:34	Field goal +3
18	SF	SF 27	3	15	0:27	Interception
19	ARI	50	2	0	1:10	End of game

9 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 78 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	19/30	195	1	1	1	-1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	19	86	4.5	0	2.1
Kyler Murray	7	83	11.9	1	5.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Wilson	5	6	78	0	20%	5.7
Trey McBride	6	9	53	0	30%	-0.9
Marvin Harrison	2	7	36	0	23%	1.6
James Conner	2	3	14	0	10%	-5.4
Greg Dortch	1	2	7	0	7%	-0.8
Tip Reiman	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.1
Elijah Higgins	1	1	2	1	3%	0.8
Emari Demercado	1	1	0	0	3%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Budda Baker	8	4	0.0	0	0
Zaven Collins	4	1	0.0	0	0
Dante Stills	1	4	0.0	0	0
Jalen Thompson	3	1	0.0	0	2
Mack Wilson	3	1	0.0	1	1
Krys Barnes	2	1	1.0	0	0
Naquan Jones	2	1	1.0	0	0
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson	2	1	0.0	0	2
Kyzir White	0	3	0.0	1	1
Sean Murphy-Bunting	3	0	0.0	0	1

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	19/35	244	1	2	2	-0.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jordan Mason	14	89	6.4	-4.0
Brock Purdy	4	33	8.3	2.6
Isaac Guerendo	5	22	4.4	0.1
Deebo Samuel	3	9	3.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	8	12	147	0	38%	9.9
George Kittle	8	12	64	1	38%	-5.6
Jauan Jennings	1	4	13	0	13%	0.4
Deebo Samuel	1	3	11	0	9%	-0.4
Jordan Mason	1	1	9	0	3%	0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Fred Warner	4	5	0.0	0	0
De'Vondre Campbell	2	7	0.0	0	1
Deommodore Lenoir	2	5	0.0	0	1
Leonard Floyd	2	2	1.0	0	0
Ji'Ayir Brown	4	0	0.0	0	0
Nick Bosa	3	0	0.0	1	1
George Kittle	2	0	0.0	0	0
Charvarius Ward	1	1	0.0	0	0
Isaac Yiadom	2	0	0.0	0	1
Dee Winters	0	2	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -7
Closing total: 48.5
ARI moneyline: +260
SF moneyline: -325

49ers closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 47 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 89°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: ARI 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Jonathan Gannon vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.