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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Baltimore Ravens 41 at Cincinnati Bengals 38. Final.
Ravens -2.5 ✓O 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 5
Baltimore Ravens 41, Bengals 38 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 4:26, 1st and 10, on Derrick Henry — 60.7 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 4:26 · 1st and 10
Derrick Henry
Ravens
(4:26) 22-D.Henry left end to CIN 6 for 51 yards (22-G.Stone).
Ravens closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Baltimore Ravens 41–38 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 4:26, Ravens +60.7% win probability on one snap.
60.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Rashod BatemanRavensOT 7:23(7:23) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman to CIN 39 for 15 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
20.7pts
Unnamed on the sheetBengalsOT 6:37(6:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson FUMBLES (Aborted) at CIN 44, touched at CIN 43, RECOVERED by CIN-57-G.Pratt at BAL 47. 57-G.Pratt to BAL 38 for 9 yards (70-R.Rosengarten).
44.4pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 5 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Bengals at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Bengals at 5 chunk plays.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Ravens186 of 202 plays carry both curves
(4:26) 22-D.Henry left end to CIN 6 for 51 yards (22-G.Stone).
Swing −60.7 for BengalsExpected points −1.62 for BengalsModel and market agree here.play 199
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 4:26CIN +61% win prob(4:26) 22-D.Henry left end to CIN 6 for 51 yards (22-G.Stone).
Overtime · 6:37BAL +44% win prob(6:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson FUMBLES (Aborted) at CIN 44, touched at CIN 43, RECOVERED by CIN-57-G.Pratt at BAL 47. 57-G.Pratt to BAL 38 for 9 yards (70-R.Rosengarten).
Overtime · 7:23CIN +21% win prob(7:23) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman to CIN 39 for 15 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
2nd · 0:15CIN +18% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BAL-92-N.Madubuike, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
4th · 9:05CIN +17% win prob(9:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:05BAL +16% win prob(3:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL 28. 44-M.Humphrey to BAL 28 for no gain (1-J.Chase).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Tucker's 24-yard field goal with 3:36 left in overtime put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th1:40Justin Tucker·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+338–38
Overtime3:36Justin Tucker·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.MooreLead never changed again+341–38
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryBengals
Ravens8–0Bengals
521Total yards444
6.9Yards per play6.7
55%Success rate45%
67%Third-down rate57%
5Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays5
29First downs23
1Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Ravens: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.27Bengals: +0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.44Ravens: +0.44 expected points added per play
+0.54Bengals: +0.54 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Ravens: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.24Bengals: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 76 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Bengals’s 66 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 6, Bengals 6.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's blitz rate sent, 46.8%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 36.7% in week 3.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 4.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
high through week 5Against their seasonOver Expected
BAL's pass rate over expected, −1.2 pts, is past their previous high of −4.1 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
76 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
BAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 31.1% in week 4 against 63.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.2 points.
CIN's pass rate over expected turned over: −5.5 pts in week 4 against +8.9 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 26 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Bengals14.9%
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
NoteCIN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 46.8%, 19.1 points above their season mean of 27.7% and 2.1 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
65Patrick MekariG · Every snap100%78 snaps
77Daniel FaaleleT · Every snap100%78 snaps
64Tyler LinderbaumC · Every snap100%78 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%78 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Full-time97%76 snaps
70Roger RosengartenT · Full-time91%71 snaps
4Zay FlowersWR · Full-time82%64 snaps
80Isaiah LikelyTE · Heavy rotation71%55 snaps
7Rashod BatemanWR · Heavy rotation63%49 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Heavy rotation55%43 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Heavy rotation53%41 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation50%39 snaps
15Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational47%37 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Rotational32%25 snaps
88Charlie KolarTE · Rotational27%21 snaps
16Tylan WallaceWR · Situational18%14 snaps
74Josh JonesG · Situational12%9 snaps
66Ben ClevelandG · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Nick SamacCBeau BradeFSAndrew VorheesGAdisa IsaacOLBDeonte HartyWRDevontez WalkerWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Josh JohnsonQB
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
67Cordell VolsonG · Every snap100%67 snaps
64Ted KarrasC · Every snap100%67 snaps
75Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%67 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%67 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
1Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Full-time88%59 snaps
80Andrei IosivasWR · Heavy rotation79%53 snaps
5Tee HigginsWR · Heavy rotation72%48 snaps
71Amarius MimsT · Heavy rotation70%47 snaps
31Zack MossRB · Heavy rotation67%45 snaps
83Erick AllTE · Heavy rotation52%35 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Rotational43%29 snaps
88Mike GesickiTE · Rotational43%29 snaps
61Cody FordG · Rotational39%26 snaps
30Chase BrownRB · Rotational33%22 snaps
15Charlie JonesWR · Situational7%5 snaps
60Jaxson KirklandG · Situational4%3 snaps
81Jermaine BurtonWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Mike HiltonCBCedric JohnsonDESheldon RankinsDTTanner HudsonTETanner McLachlanTETrenton IrwinWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
D.Henry left+61% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:26) 22-D.Henry left end to CIN 6 for 51 yards (22-G.Stone).
OT 4:26 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at BAL 43 · gained 51 · +1.62 EP · +60.7% win probability
184 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 202 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 196. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 92 yards from the BAL 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
202 of 202 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
202
EPA per play
+0.21
Success rate
51%
Yards
964
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.4776%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.5352%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.0470%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2756%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR14+0.5343%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.4057%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-1.3820%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
202 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
202 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Ravens6Bengals0
Ravens7Bengals0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Bengals 1
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 39
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Bengals 47
The period ended8 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the Ravens 25
2nd quarter56 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Ravens7Bengals6
Ravens7Bengals7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 13 to the Ravens 11
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 35
Punt4 plays
Ravens13Bengals7
Ravens14Bengals7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 49 to the Bengals 16
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 39
Ravens14Bengals9
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 33 to midfield
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 14 to the Ravens 25
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Ravens14Bengals15
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Ravens 41
Ravens14Bengals17
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Ravens14Bengals23
Ravens14Bengals24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Ravens 1
Ravens20Bengals24
Ravens21Bengals24
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 26 to the Bengals 1
The period ended13 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Ravens 18
4th quarter58 plays
Ravens21Bengals30
Ravens21Bengals31
Touchdown3 plays, from the Ravens 5 to the Ravens 4
Ravens27Bengals31
Ravens28Bengals31
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 8 to the Bengals 2
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Ravens28Bengals37
Ravens28Bengals38
Touchdown3 plays
Ravens34Bengals38
Ravens35Bengals38
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Bengals 6
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Ravens 28
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Ravens38Bengals38
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Bengals 38
The period ended6 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 32
Overtime18 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Bengals 39
The period ended6 plays, from the Ravens 38 to the Ravens 35
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Ravens41Bengals38
Field goal3 plays, from the Ravens 43 to the Bengals 6
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -2.5
Closing total
48.5
Ravens moneyline
-148
Bengals moneyline
+124
Ravens closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 79 — over by 30.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Warm, 80°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Ravens 7 days · Bengals 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Zac Taylor
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 11:21CIN +15% win prob(11:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 80-A.Iosivas pushed ob at BAL 2 for 39 yards (32-M.Williams) [91-Y.Ngakoue].
3rd · 8:03CIN +13% win prob(8:03) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 88-C.Kolar pushed ob at CIN 4 for 55 yards (22-G.Stone).
