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2024 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2024 · Paycor Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

41

Cincinnati Bengals

38

BAL -2.5 ✓O 48.5 ✓

Baltimore Ravens 41–38 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 4:26, CIN +61% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4CIN ↑BAL ↓
OT · 4:26BAL 38 — CIN 38BAL ball · 1st & 10CIN 62%

(4:26) 22-D.Henry left end to CIN 6 for 51 yards (22-G.Stone).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 4:26CIN +61% win prob(4:26) 22-D.Henry left end to CIN 6 for 51 yards (22-G.Stone).
  2. OT · 6:37BAL +44% win prob(6:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson FUMBLES (Aborted) at CIN 44, touched at CIN 43, RECOVERED by CIN-57-G.Pratt at BAL 47. 57-G.Pratt to BAL 38 for 9 yards (70-R.Rosengarten).
  3. OT · 7:23CIN +21% win prob(7:23) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman to CIN 39 for 15 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
  4. Q2 · 0:15CIN +18% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BAL-92-N.Madubuike, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:59BAL Touchdown

    (8:59) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 7 — CIN 0
  2. Q2 · 13:47CIN Touchdown

    (13:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 7 — CIN 7
  3. Q2 · 8:16BAL Touchdown

    (8:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 7-R.Bateman for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN [22-G.Stone]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 14 — CIN 7
  4. Q2 · 5:52CIN Safety

    (5:52) 22-D.Henry right tackle tackled in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (94-S.Hubbard). ** Injury Update: BAL-70-R.Rosengarten has returned to the game.

    Score after this play: BAL 14 — CIN 9
  5. Q2 · 0:15CIN Touchdown

    (:15) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BAL-92-N.Madubuike, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: BAL 14 — CIN 17
  6. Q3 · 8:53CIN Touchdown

    (8:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 14 — CIN 24
  7. Q3 · 6:41BAL Touchdown

    (6:41) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 80-I.Likely for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 21 — CIN 24
  8. Q4 · 14:23CIN Touchdown

    (14:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 30-C.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 21 — CIN 31
  9. Q4 · 9:11BAL Touchdown

    (9:11) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 88-C.Kolar for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 28 — CIN 31
  10. Q4 · 9:05CIN Touchdown

    (9:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 28 — CIN 38
  11. Q4 · 5:36BAL Touchdown

    (5:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson to CIN 12 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CIN 12. 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-G.Pratt]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 35 — CIN 38
  12. Q4 · 1:40BAL Field goal

    (1:40) 9-J.Tucker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 38 — CIN 38
  13. OT · 3:36BAL Field goal

    (3:36) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 41 — CIN 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensBengals
Offensive plays7666
Total yards521 (edge)444
Yards per play6.9 (edge)6.7
Expected points added / play0.29 (edge)0.27
Success rate55% (edge)45%
Dropback rate62%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.440.54 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.04 (edge)-0.24
Third downs10/15 (edge)8/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps29 (edge)23
Sacks taken1 (edge)3
Turnovers11

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

30/39, 392 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT

23.6 expected points added · +11.8% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

26/42, 348 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

21.2 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

15 att, 92 yds, 1 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

12 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

-6.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

10/12 for 193 yds, 2 TD

31% of team targets · 12.6 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

7/12 for 111 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BALBAL 3014706:06Touchdown +7
2CINCIN 30542:15Punt
3BALBAL 167343:10Punt
4CINCIN 1411864:45Touchdown +7
5BALBAL 30551:39Punt
6CINCIN 204-70:57Punt
7BALBAL 498512:59Touchdown +7
8CINCIN 30522:17Punt
9BALBAL 21-20:05Safety
10CINCIN 337172:24Punt
11BALBAL 148112:49Punt
12CINCIN 215810:25Touchdown +8
13BALBAL 30200:09End of half
14CINCIN 3014746:09Touchdown +7
15BALBAL 266742:13Touchdown +7
16CINCIN 3014707:19Touchdown +7
17BALBAL 8121025:14Touchdown +7
18CINCIN 303700:11Touchdown +7
19BALBAL 3013603:30Touchdown +7
20CINCIN 307422:23Interception
21BALBAL 288341:26Field goal +3
22CINCIN 30521:35Punt
23BALBAL 308313:32Fumble
24CINBAL 38432:02Missed field goal
25BALBAL 432510:53Field goal +3

12 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 102 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson26/4234840121.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry15926.112.3
Lamar Jackson12554.60-6.3
Justice Hill5173.402.1
Zay Flowers199.001.0
Charlie Kolar122.001.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zay Flowers712111029%6.0
Charlie Kolar3464110%4.9
Rashod Bateman4858120%3.3
Mark Andrews4555012%4.2
Tylan Wallace223105%3.2
Isaiah Likely331327%3.2
Justice Hill12805%-0.1
Derrick Henry11402%-0.1
Nelson Agholor144010%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Roquan Smith670.000
Brandon Stephens810.001
Trenton Simpson240.001
Nnamdi Madubuike221.000
Ar'Darius Washington220.000
Kyle Hamilton311.001
Tavius Robinson121.000
Marcus Williams300.000
Odafe Oweh200.000
Nate Wiggins200.002

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Burrow30/3939251323.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chase Brown12463.80-2.4
Zack Moss9242.70-2.7
Joe Burrow210.50-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ja'Marr Chase1012193231%12.6
Tee Higgins91483236%8.1
Andrei Iosivas123905%3.5
Mike Gesicki223105%3.7
Zack Moss3428010%0.9
Erick All221005%-0.2
Chase Brown33818%0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Logan Wilson540.000
Sam Hubbard721.000
Germaine Pratt530.000
Cam Taylor-Britt410.002
B.J. Hill230.001
Geno Stone310.000
D.J. Turner300.000
Vonn Bell120.000
Akeem Davis-Gaither110.000
Myles Murphy200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Closing total
48.5
BAL moneyline
-148
CIN moneyline
+124

Ravens closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 79 — over by 30.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
81°F, wind 10 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
BAL 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.