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2024 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2024 · NRG Stadium

Buffalo Bills

20

Houston TexansWinner

23

HOU -1 ✓U 48 ✓Dome

Houston Texans 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:29, BUF +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3HOU ↑BUF ↓
Q4 · 4:29BUF 17 — HOU 20HOU ball · 2nd & 10HOU 77%

(4:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 8 for -6 yards (94-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (94-D.Smoot), RECOVERED by BUF-42-Do.Williams at HOU 15.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 4:29BUF +30% win prob(4:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 8 for -6 yards (94-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (94-D.Smoot), RECOVERED by BUF-42-Do.Williams at HOU 15.
  2. Q4 · 0:44BUF +19% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on HOU-7-C.Stroud, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 39.
  3. Q4 · 2:33HOU +18% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 45 for 11 yards (31-R.Douglas).
  4. Q4 · 0:02HOU +18% win prob(:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:30BUF Field goal

    (6:30) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: BUF 3 — HOU 0
  2. Q1 · 3:01HOU Touchdown

    (3:01) 22-C.Akers left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 3 — HOU 7
  3. Q1 · 1:43HOU Touchdown

    (1:43) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 3 — HOU 14
  4. Q2 · 0:03HOU Field goal

    (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: BUF 3 — HOU 17
  5. Q3 · 11:19HOU Field goal

    (11:19) 15-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: BUF 3 — HOU 20
  6. Q3 · 8:53BUF Touchdown

    (8:53) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 10 — HOU 20
  7. Q3 · 4:30BUF Touchdown

    (4:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 17 — HOU 20
  8. Q4 · 3:21BUF Field goal

    (3:21) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: BUF 20 — HOU 20
  9. Q4 · 0:02HOU Field goal

    (:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: BUF 20 — HOU 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBillsTexans
Offensive plays5967
Total yards276425 (edge)
Yards per play4.76.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.02 (edge)-0.06
Success rate31%39% (edge)
Dropback rate59%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.040.17 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.10 (edge)-0.44
Third downs3/148/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)11 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps1418 (edge)
Sacks taken11
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

28/38, 331 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

6.2 expected points added · +6.0% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

9/30, 131 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-5.1 expected points added · -27.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

20 att, 82 yds, 1 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Cam AkersRB

9 att, 42 yds, 1 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Stefon DiggsWR

6/8 for 82 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Dare OgunbowaleRB

6/7 for 57 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BUFBUF 30570:39Punt
2HOUHOU 8412:17Punt
3BUFHOU 4910445:37Field goal +3
4HOUHOU 308703:32Touchdown +7
5BUFBUF 30541:12Punt
6HOUHOU 332670:09Touchdown +7
7BUFBUF 277131:56Punt
8HOUHOU 1911656:43Turnover on downs
9BUFBUF 1610355:13Punt
10HOUHOU 8481:40Punt
11BUFBUF 28400:32Punt
12HOUHOU 496190:30Field goal +3
13HOUHOU 309563:45Field goal +3
14BUFBUF 308552:27Touchdown +7
15HOUHOU 30571:42Punt
16BUFBUF 356652:46Touchdown +7
17HOUHOU 266293:06Punt
18BUFBUF 196312:44Punt
19HOUHOU 1210555:24Interception
20BUFBUF 206222:16Punt
21HOUHOU 24121:29Fumble
22BUFHOU 15401:03Field goal +3
23HOUHOU 3011312:46Punt
24BUFBUF 3400:25Punt
25HOUBUF 46250:07Field goal +3

9 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 70 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen9/30131101-5.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Cook20824.11-0.7
Josh Allen45413.506.6
Ty Johnson3155.00-0.7
Curtis Samuel1-1-1.00-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Keon Coleman1549117%5.1
Dalton Kincaid2634021%-0.7
Mack Hollins2627021%0.8
James Cook2317010%0.3
Ray Davis12407%-1.1
Marquez Valdes-Scantling030010%-4.0
Curtis Samuel140014%-3.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Dorian Williams1110.000
Damar Hamlin520.000
DaQuan Jones410.000
Christian Benford410.000
Rasul Douglas400.000
Cameron Lewis310.000
Terrel Bernard130.011
Cole Bishop220.000
Ja'Marcus Ingram210.000
DeWayne Carter300.000

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud28/383311116.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Cam Akers9424.71-0.1
Dare Ogunbowale15302.00-9.3
C.J. Stroud3279.000.8
Tank Dell1-5-5.00-1.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Stefon Diggs6882023%1.1
Nico Collins227816%5.8
Dare Ogunbowale6757020%4.3
Tank Dell4438011%3.1
Dalton Schultz4634017%-1.1
Xavier Hutchinson233109%1.9
Cade Stover22606%-1.0
Cam Akers23509%-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Azeez Al-Shaair430.002
Derek Stingley430.001
Henry To'oTo'o140.000
Folorunso Fatukasi310.000
Calen Bullock120.000
Eric Murray300.001
Khalil Davis201.000
Jalen Pitre110.000
Kamari Lassiter200.001
Jimmie Ward200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
HOU -1
Closing total
48
BUF moneyline
-102
HOU moneyline
-118

Texans closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 48; the game landed 43 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
BUF 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs DeMeco Ryans