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Houston Texans 23, Bills 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 4:29, 2nd and 10, on C.J. Stroud — 30.3 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:29 · 2nd and 10
C.J. Stroud
Bills
(4:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 8 for -6 yards (94-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (94-D.Smoot), RECOVERED by BUF-42-Do.Williams at HOU 15.
Dome
Texans closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.
Houston Texans 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:29, Bills +30.3% win probability on one snap.
30.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dalton SchultzTexansQ4 2:33(2:33) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 45 for 11 yards (31-R.Douglas).
18.1pts
C.J. StroudBillsQ4 0:44(:44) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on HOU-7-C.Stroud, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 39.
19.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Texans at 5 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Texans won this one — 8 of 16 on third down, against Bills at 3 of 14 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Texans at 2 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Bills owned this one and still lost it — -0.10 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.44 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Bills166 of 177 plays carry both curves
(4:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 8 for -6 yards (94-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (94-D.Smoot), RECOVERED by BUF-42-Do.Williams at HOU 15.
Swing −30.3 for TexansExpected points −4.74 for TexansModel and market agree here.play 151
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:29BUF +30% win prob(4:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 8 for -6 yards (94-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (94-D.Smoot), RECOVERED by BUF-42-Do.Williams at HOU 15.
4th · 0:44BUF +19% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on HOU-7-C.Stroud, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 39.
4th · 2:33HOU +18% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 45 for 11 yards (31-R.Douglas).
4th · 0:02HOU +18% win prob(:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
3rd · 4:30HOU +17% win prob(4:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:16BUF +16% win prob(8:16) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle intended for 1-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 43-T.Bernard at BUF 19. 43-T.Bernard to BUF 20 for 1 yard (1-S.Diggs).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ka'imi Fairbairn's 59-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:30Tyler Bass·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+33–0
4th3:21Tyler Bass·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+320–20
4th0:02Ka'imi Fairbairn·59-yd field goal59-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+320–23
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryTexans
Bills2–5Texans
276Total yards425
4.7Yards per play6.3
31%Success rate39%
21%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
11Explosive plays5
14First downs18
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers2
The read
Texans ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Bills: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.06Texans: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Bills: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.17Texans: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Bills: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.44Texans: −0.44 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 59 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Texans’s 67 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Bills 4, Texans 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
HOU's sack or hit rate, 25.7%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 21.9% in week 3.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 4.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
BUF's play-action rate turned over: 8.1% in week 4 against 22.9% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +1.8 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Texans25.7%
leaned — got home · +9.8 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.51× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteHOU's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.7%, 9.8 points above their season mean of 15.9% and 1.5 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Stroud sacked−31% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 8 for -6 yards (94-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (94-D.Smoot), RECOVERED by BUF-42-Do.Williams at HOU 15.
Q4 4:29 · Texans · 2nd & 10 at HOU 14 · gained nothing · -4.74 EP · −31.1% win probability
164 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 70 yards from the HOU 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
38%
Yards
701
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.0964%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.0766%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.0145%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.0618%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.4656%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 37
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Texans 10
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Bills3Texans0
Field goal12 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Texans 9
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.6 seconds
Bills3Texans6
Bills3Texans7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Bills 15
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 34
Bills3Texans13
Bills3Texans14
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Bills 39
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt4 plays
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Bills 16
Punt10 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Texans 46
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Texans 16
Punt4 plays
Bills3Texans17
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Bills 32
3rd quarter40 plays
Bills3Texans20
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Bills 29
Bills9Texans20
Bills10Texans20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Texans 5
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 37
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Bills16Texans20
Bills17Texans20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Texans 49
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Texans 45
The period ended4 plays, from the Bills 19 to the Bills 35
4th quarter50 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 46 to the Texans 43
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Texans 12 to the Bills 33
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 42
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Texans 2 to the Texans 14
Bills20Texans20
Field goal5 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, thrown away.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.5 seconds
Punt13 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Bills 39
Punt4 plays
Bills20Texans23
Field goal3 plays, from the Bills 46 to the Bills 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
