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2024 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2024 · Soldier Field

Carolina Panthers

10

Chicago BearsWinner

36

CHI -4 ✓O 40 ✓

Chicago Bears 36–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:01, CHI +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHI ↑CAR ↓
Q1 · 9:01CAR 6 — CHI 0CAR ball · 1st & 10CHI 57%

(9:01) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 9:01CHI +11% win prob(9:01) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 5:52CHI +9% win prob(5:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 12:35CAR +7% win prob(12:35) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 13 for -8 yards (40-C.Harris).
  4. Q1 · 9:40CHI +7% win prob(9:40) 5-Di.Johnson left end to CHI 38 for 4 yards (9-J.Brisker).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:01CAR Touchdown

    (9:01) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — CHI 0
  2. Q1 · 5:52CHI Touchdown

    (5:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — CHI 7
  3. Q2 · 10:48CHI Touchdown

    (10:48) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 23-R.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — CHI 14
  4. Q2 · 2:17CHI Touchdown

    (2:17) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 4-D.Swift right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — CHI 21
  5. Q2 · 0:30CHI Touchdown

    (:30) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — CHI 27
  6. Q3 · 6:29CHI Field goal

    (6:29) 8-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — CHI 30
  7. Q3 · 2:14CAR Field goal

    (2:14) 4-E.Pineiro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: CAR 10 — CHI 30
  8. Q4 · 4:26CHI Touchdown

    (4:26) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 23-R.Johnson right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-79-M.Pryor, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on CAR-8-J.Horn, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on CAR-52-Dj.Johnson, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

    Score after this play: CAR 10 — CHI 36

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersBears
Offensive plays5867
Total yards292428 (edge)
Yards per play5.06.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.260.21 (edge)
Success rate34%45% (edge)
Dropback rate71%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.490.48 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.30 (edge)-0.09
Third downs3/124/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)69 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1324 (edge)
Sacks taken41 (edge)
Turnovers30 (edge)

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

20/29, 304 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.1 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Andy DaltonQB

18/28, 136 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-12.5 expected points added · +0.1% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

13 att, 97 yds, 1 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

21 att, 73 yds, 1 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

D.J. MooreWR

5/8 for 105 yds, 2 TD

29% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Jalen CokerWR

4/4 for 68 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CARCAR 30551:39Punt
2CHICHI 184-51:42Punt
3CARCAR 496512:45Touchdown +7
4CHICHI 309703:10Touchdown +7
5CARCAR 307103:33Punt
6CHICHI 2014826:27Touchdown +7
7CARCAR 29552:24Punt
8CHICHI 259364:02Turnover on downs
9CARCAR 39351:29Fumble
10CHICAR 444440:35Touchdown +7
11CARCAR 437201:19Turnover on downs
12CHICHI 386620:31Touchdown +6
13CARCAR 305430:24Missed field goal
14CHICHI 305162:47Punt
15CARCAR 22211:11Interception
16CHICHI 3411654:37Field goal +3
17CARCAR 3011484:15Field goal +3
18CHICHI 305131:38Punt
19CARCAR 236303:30Punt
20CHICHI 206323:16Punt
21CARCAR 85101:16Fumble
22CHICAR 186133:07Touchdown +6
23CARCAR 2610642:27Turnover on downs
24CHICHI 10301:56End of game

8 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 82 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Andy Dalton18/28136013-12.5
Bryce Young4/758001-0.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard13977.514.4
Bryce Young188.00-0.3
Miles Sanders263.00-1.3
Diontae Johnson263.002.0
Andy Dalton133.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jalen Coker4468012%6.0
Jonathan Mingo2537015%0.4
Miles Sanders232709%0.5
Diontae Johnson3623018%-3.4
David Moore231309%-0.0
Ja'Tavion Sanders3513015%-1.1
Xavier Legette11803%0.6
Tommy Tremble12706%-4.3
Chuba Hubbard44-2012%-8.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Trevin Wallace850.000
Xavier Woods520.000
Shy Tuttle420.000
Troy Hill240.000
Nick Scott050.001
Jaycee Horn500.001
Claudin Cherelus140.000
A'Shawn Robinson210.000
D.J. Johnson120.000
Jadeveon Clowney210.000

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams20/2930420114.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Andre Swift21733.510.7
Caleb Williams5346.803.1
Roschon Johnson10252.52-3.6
Tyson Bagent3-4-1.300.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D.J. Moore58105229%7.3
Cole Kmet3457014%3.9
D'Andre Swift224707%3.2
Rome Odunze5640021%2.1
Keenan Allen3633021%-1.9
Gerald Everett222207%2.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tyrique Stevenson240.002
Tremaine Edmunds320.000
T.J. Edwards320.000
Jaylon Johnson410.000
Kyler Gordon410.500
Jaquan Brisker320.001
Kevin Byard310.011
Jack Sanborn220.000
Amen Ogbongbemiga120.000
Chris Williams110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CHI -4
Closing total
40
CAR moneyline
+164
CHI moneyline
-198

Bears closed -4 and covered, winning by 26.

Total closed 40; the game landed 46 — over by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
74°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
CAR 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches
Dave Canales vs Matt Eberflus