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Chicago Bears 36, Panthers 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 9:01, 1st and 10, on Chuba Hubbard — 11.3 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:01 · 1st and 10
Chuba Hubbard
Panthers
(9:01) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.9 mph wind
Bears closed -4 and covered, winning by 26.
Chicago Bears 36–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:01, Panthers +11.3% win probability on one snap. Played in 17.9 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
11.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Caleb WilliamsPanthersQ1 12:35(12:35) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 13 for -8 yards (40-C.Harris).
7.3pts
D.J. MooreBearsQ1 5:52(5:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.3pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Bears won this one — +0.48 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.49 expected points per dropback.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bears won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bears won this one — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Panthers at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Panthers165 of 173 plays carry both curves
(9:01) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.3 for BearsExpected points −3.65 for BearsThe model had Panthers 10 points higher than the market did.play 15
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:01CHI +11% win prob(9:01) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:52CHI +9% win prob(5:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:35CAR +7% win prob(12:35) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 13 for -8 yards (40-C.Harris).
1st · 9:40CHI +7% win prob(9:40) 5-Di.Johnson left end to CHI 38 for 4 yards (9-J.Brisker).
2nd · 10:48CHI +6% win prob(10:48) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 23-R.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:23CAR +6% win prob(4:23) 23-R.Johnson right tackle to CAR 39 for no gain (56-T.Wallace, 21-N.Scott).
2nd · 7:34CHI +6% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Roschon Johnson's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 10:48 left in the 2nd put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
2nd0:30D.J. Moore·30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Caleb Williamsfrom Caleb Williams · kick no good, wide right+67–27
3rd6:29Cairo Santos·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+37–30
3rd2:14Eddy Pineiro·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+310–30
4th4:26Roschon Johnson·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+610–36
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryBears
Panthers0–9Bears
292Total yards428
5.0Yards per play6.4
34%Success rate45%
25%Third-down rate40%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays9
13First downs24
4Sacks taken1
3Turnovers0
The read
Bears ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.26Panthers: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.21Bears: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.49Panthers: −0.49 expected points added per play
+0.48Bears: +0.48 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.30Panthers: +0.30 expected points added per play
−0.09Bears: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 58 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Bears’s 67 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Bears 6.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CHI's blitz rate sent, 14.6%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 18.2% in week 3.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 4.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 12 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −4.5 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Bears19.5%
right on their number · +2.2 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteCHI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 27.8%, 9.4 points above their season mean of 18.3% and 1.6 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%60 snaps
50Robert HuntG · Every snap100%60 snaps
79Ikem EkwonuT · Every snap100%60 snaps
14Andy DaltonQB · Full-time85%51 snaps
5Diontae JohnsonWR · Full-time80%48 snaps
0Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Heavy rotation75%45 snaps
15Jonathan MingoWR · Heavy rotation68%41 snaps
63Austin CorbettC · Heavy rotation68%41 snaps
30Chuba HubbardRB · Heavy rotation65%39 snaps
18Jalen CokerWR · Heavy rotation53%32 snaps
77Yosh NijmanT · Heavy rotation52%31 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Rotational48%29 snaps
83David MooreWR · Rotational40%24 snaps
6Miles SandersRB · Rotational38%23 snaps
17Xavier LegetteWR · Rotational37%22 snaps
70Brady ChristensenG · Rotational32%19 snaps
82Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational28%17 snaps
9Bryce YoungQB · Situational15%9 snaps
84Feleipe FranksTE · Situational7%4 snaps
3Raheem BlackshearRB · Situational5%3 snaps
62Chandler ZavalaG · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Andrew RaymCJayden PeevyDTRuss YeastFSJosey JewellILBMike BooneRBJarrett KingstonT
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 5 inactive
58Darnell WrightT · Every snap100%75 snaps
65Coleman SheltonC · Full-time96%72 snaps
70Braxton JonesT · Full-time96%72 snaps
18Caleb WilliamsQB · Full-time96%72 snaps
79Matt PryorT · Full-time95%71 snaps
2DJ MooreWR · Full-time88%66 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Full-time84%63 snaps
13Keenan AllenWR · Full-time81%61 snaps
15Rome OdunzeWR · Full-time80%60 snaps
4D'Andre SwiftRB · Heavy rotation67%50 snaps
76Teven JenkinsT · Heavy rotation51%38 snaps
60Bill MurrayG · Rotational49%37 snaps
23Roschon JohnsonRB · Rotational31%23 snaps
14Gerald EverettTE · Rotational29%22 snaps
84Marcedes LewisTE · Situational23%17 snaps
68Doug KramerC · Situational12%9 snaps
72Kiran AmegadjieT · Situational5%4 snaps
64Nate DavisG · Situational5%4 snaps
24Khalil HerbertRB · Situational4%3 snaps
17Tyson BagentQB · Situational4%3 snaps
10Tyler ScottWR · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 5
Terell SmithCBDominique RobinsonDEZacch PickensDTKhari BlasingameFBVelus Jones Jr.WR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Di.Johnson left+12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:40) 5-Di.Johnson left end to CHI 38 for 4 yards (9-J.Brisker).
Q1 9:40 · Panthers · 4th & 1 at CHI 42 · gained 4 · +2.50 EP · +12.2% win probability
163 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 80 yards from the CHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
42%
Yards
716
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.3256%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.2674%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1320%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.0838%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR4——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Panthers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 35
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Bears 21
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Panthers6Bears0
Panthers7Bears0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 49 to the Bears 38
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Panthers7Bears6
Panthers7Bears7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Panthers 34
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 41
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Panthers 49
2nd quarter56 plays
Panthers7Bears13
Panthers7Bears14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 43 to the Panthers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Panthers 34
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Panthers 39
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Panthers 39 to the Panthers 44
Panthers7Bears20
Panthers7Bears21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Panthers 44 to the Panthers 1
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Panthers 43 to the Bears 37
Panthers7Bears27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 38 to the Panthers 30
The period ended7 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Bears 27
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 37
Intercepted3 plays, from the Panthers 22 to the Panthers 23
Panthers7Bears30
Field goal12 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Panthers 1
Panthers10Bears30
Field goal13 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Bears 9
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 38
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 37 to the Bears 37
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Panthers 48
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Panthers 8 to the Panthers 22
Panthers10Bears36
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the Panthers 1
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Bears 8
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bears -4
Closing total
40
Panthers moneyline
+164
Bears moneyline
-198
Bears closed -4 and covered, winning by 26.
Total closed 40; the game landed 46 — over by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 73°F at kickoff; windy at 18 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
Panthers 7 days · Bears 7 days
Coaches
Dave Canales vs Matt Eberflus
NoteWind at 17.9 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
(7:34) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 14-G.Everett to CHI 41 for 17 yards (56-T.Wallace; 2-M.Jackson).
2nd · 2:59CAR +5% win prob(2:59) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 82-T.Tremble to CAR 46 for 9 yards (9-J.Brisker). FUMBLES (9-J.Brisker), RECOVERED by CHI-99-G.Dexter at CAR 44. CAR-82-T.Tremble was injured during the play.
