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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Cleveland Browns 13 at Washington Commanders 34. Final.
Commanders -3 ✓O 44 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 5
Washington Commanders 34, Browns 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 9:14, 3rd and 13, on Terry McLaurin — 16.3 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:14 · 3rd and 13
Terry McLaurin
Commanders
(9:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin to CLE 3 for 66 yards (21-D.Ward).
Commanders closed -3 and covered, winning by 21.
Washington Commanders 34–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:14, Commanders +16.3% win probability on one snap.
16.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dustin HopkinsBrownsQ2 13:13(13:13) 7-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
7.7pts
Austin EkelerCommandersQ2 13:02(13:02) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right tackle to CLE 30 for 50 yards (23-M.Emerson). FUMBLES (23-M.Emerson), recovered by WAS-14-O.Zaccheaus at CLE 23.
8.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Browns at 3 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Commanders won this one — 8 of 17 on third down, against Browns at 1 of 13 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Commanders won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.31 expected points per snap.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.15 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.40 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 0.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Browns168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(9:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin to CLE 3 for 66 yards (21-D.Ward).
Swing +16.3 for CommandersExpected points +6.20 for CommandersModel and market agree here.play 18
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:14WAS +16% win prob(9:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin to CLE 3 for 66 yards (21-D.Ward).
2nd · 13:02WAS +9% win prob(13:02) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right tackle to CLE 30 for 50 yards (23-M.Emerson). FUMBLES (23-M.Emerson), recovered by WAS-14-O.Zaccheaus at CLE 23.
2nd · 13:13WAS +8% win prob(13:13) 7-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
2nd · 4:09WAS +8% win prob(4:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end pushed ob at CLE 6 for 34 yards (12-R.McLeod). PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at CLE 6.
1st · 7:38CLE +6% win prob(7:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 6-J.Owusu-Koramoah at CLE 1. 6-J.Owusu-Koramoah to CLE 1 for no gain (86-Z.Ertz).
1st · 12:56CLE +6% win prob(12:56) 27-D.Foreman left end to WAS 47 for no gain (4-F.Luvu).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brian Robinson's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 2:46 left in the 1st put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st2:46Brian Robinson·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd13:13Dustin Hopkins·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.Hughlett+33–7
2nd8:44Austin Seibert·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+33–10
Commanders ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.31Browns: −0.31 expected points added per play
+0.08Commanders: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.40Browns: −0.40 expected points added per play
+0.15Commanders: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Browns: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.00Commanders: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 59 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Commanders’s 65 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Browns 2, Commanders 7.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's pass rate over expected, −4.6 pts, is past their previous low of +0.9 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 4.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.2 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Commanders25.6%
leaned — got home · +11.2 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.84× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteWAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.6%, 11.2 points above their season mean of 14.4% and 1.8 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Daniels pass+16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin to CLE 3 for 66 yards (21-D.Ward).
Q1 9:14 · Commanders · 3rd & 13 at WAS 31 · gained 66 · +6.20 EP · +15.8% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 80 yards from the WAS 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
36%
Yards
646
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.5268%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.1356%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.1844%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.8250%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.3517%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Commanders 47
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.3 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Browns 3
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 1 to the Browns 5
Browns0Commanders6
Browns0Commanders7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Browns 4
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 33
Punt4 plays
2nd quarter58 plays
Browns3Commanders7
Field goal7 plays, from the Commanders 43 to the Commanders 24
Browns3Commanders10
Field goal9 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Browns 9
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Browns 33
Browns3Commanders16
Browns3Commanders17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Browns 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Browns 32
Browns3Commanders23
Browns3Commanders24
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 38 to the Browns 41
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 48
3rd quarter42 plays
Fumble lost2 plays
Browns6Commanders24
Field goal9 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 2
Browns6Commanders30
Browns6Commanders31
Touchdown11 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Browns 3
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Commanders 41
Browns6Commanders34
Field goal7 plays, from midfield to the Browns 12
The period ended9 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Commanders 41
4th quarter35 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Commanders 11
Browns12Commanders34
Browns13Commanders34
Touchdown13 plays, from the Browns 46 to the Commanders 8
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Browns 40
The period ended5 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
