For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Cowboys168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 1-J.Tolbert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −43.3 for SteelersExpected points −4.56 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 5 points higher than the market did.play 170
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:26PIT +43% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 1-J.Tolbert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:26PIT +16% win prob(1:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson to PIT 22 for 10 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
3rd · 10:43PIT +14% win prob(10:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 9-K.Turpin to PIT 21 for 34 yards (23-D.Kazee).
4th · 0:35DAL +14% win prob(:35) 76-A.Richards reported in as eligible. 23-R.Dowdle up the middle to PIT 1 for no gain (50-E.Roberts). FUMBLES (50-E.Roberts), recovered by DAL-4-D.Prescott at PIT 4.
4th · 10:44DAL +13% win prob(10:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right intended for 1-J.Tolbert INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Porter at PIT 21. 24-J.Porter to PIT 37 for 16 yards (87-J.Ferguson).
4th · 6:03PIT +12% win prob(6:03) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short right to 14-G.Pickens pushed ob at DAL 13 for 21 yards (28-M.Hooker). PENALTY on DAL-6-Do.Wilson, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at DAL 13. Penalty on DAL-55-C.Lawson, Defensive Offside, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jalen Tolbert's 4-yard touchdown catch with 0:26 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st12:39Brandon Aubrey·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+33–0
1st7:36Chris Boswell·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+33–3
2nd8:55Brandon Aubrey·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+36–3
4th0:26Jalen Tolbert·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+720–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categorySteelers
Cowboys6–3Steelers
445Total yards226
5.9Yards per play4.0
48%Success rate49%
60%Third-down rate25%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays2
23First downs13
2Sacks taken3
3Turnovers1
The read
Cowboys ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Cowboys: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.05Steelers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.24Cowboys: +0.24 expected points added per play
−0.06Steelers: −0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Cowboys: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.18Steelers: +0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 75 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Steelers’s 57 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 6, Steelers 2.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 12 pts
right on their number · +3.2 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Steelers13.3%
right on their number · −3.3 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was PIT's play-action rate, 38.7% against a season mean of 26.9% — and PIT swings 12.3 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+47% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 1-J.Tolbert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:26 · Cowboys · 4th & goal at PIT 4 · gained 4 · +4.56 EP · +46.7% win probability
166 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 90 yards from the DAL 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
47%
Yards
671
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.1561%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.0559%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.3244%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0338%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0850%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.8460%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Cowboys3Steelers0
Field goal7 plays, from the Cowboys 43 to the Steelers 36
Cowboys3Steelers3
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Cowboys 23
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 39
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Steelers 42
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Steelers 11
2nd quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 27
Cowboys6Steelers3
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 34 to the Steelers 13
Punt12 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Cowboys 43
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Cowboys 15 to the Steelers 15
The period ended6 plays, from the Steelers 2 to the Steelers 6
3rd quarter40 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Cowboys6Steelers9
Cowboys6Steelers10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Cowboys 15
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
No good9 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Steelers 20
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Cowboys 47
The period ended17 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Steelers 30
4th quarter57 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Cowboys12Steelers10
Cowboys13Steelers10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Steelers 22
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Steelers 39
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Cowboys 38
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Cowboys13Steelers16
Cowboys13Steelers17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Cowboys 6
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Cowboys19Steelers17
Cowboys20Steelers17
Touchdown24 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Steelers 1
Fumble lost3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -2.5
Closing total
43.5
Cowboys moneyline
+114
Steelers moneyline
-135
Steelers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 37 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 66°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the north-west; 0.89 in of precipitation; moderate rain.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Cowboys 10 days · Steelers 7 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Mike Tomlin
2nd · 0:57DAL +12% win prob(:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at PIT 0. 26-D.Jackson ran ob at PIT 2 for 2 yards.
2nd · 2:25PIT +12% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 1-J.Tolbert pushed ob at PIT 31 for 48 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
