For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2024 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2024 · Acrisure Stadium

Dallas CowboysWinner

20

Pittsburgh Steelers

17

PIT -2.5 upsetU 43.5 ✓

Dallas Cowboys 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:26, PIT +43% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3PITDAL
Q4 · 0:26DAL 19PIT 17DAL ball · 4th & 4PIT 54%

(:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 1-J.Tolbert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:26PIT +43% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 1-J.Tolbert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 1:26PIT +16% win prob(1:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson to PIT 22 for 10 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
  3. Q3 · 10:43PIT +14% win prob(10:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 9-K.Turpin to PIT 21 for 34 yards (23-D.Kazee).
  4. Q4 · 0:35DAL +14% win prob(:35) 76-A.Richards reported in as eligible. 23-R.Dowdle up the middle to PIT 1 for no gain (50-E.Roberts). FUMBLES (50-E.Roberts), recovered by DAL-4-D.Prescott at PIT 4.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:39DAL Field goal

    (12:39) 17-B.Aubrey 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 3PIT 0
  2. Q1 · 7:36PIT Field goal

    (7:36) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: DAL 3PIT 3
  3. Q2 · 8:55DAL Field goal

    (8:55) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 6PIT 3
  4. Q3 · 11:56PIT Touchdown

    (11:56) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short left to 83-Co.Heyward for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 6PIT 10
  5. Q4 · 13:58DAL Touchdown

    (13:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 23-R.Dowdle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 13PIT 10
  6. Q4 · 5:00PIT Touchdown

    (5:00) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 13PIT 17
  7. Q4 · 0:26DAL Touchdown

    (:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 1-J.Tolbert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 20PIT 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCowboysSteelers
Offensive plays7557
Total yards445 (edge)226
Yards per play5.9 (edge)4.0
Expected points added / play0.11 (edge)0.05
Success rate48%49% (edge)
Dropback rate60%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.24 (edge)-0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.080.18 (edge)
Third downs9/15 (edge)3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)13
Sacks taken2 (edge)3
Turnovers31 (edge)

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs 0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

29/42, 352 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

10.7 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Justin FieldsQB

15/27, 131 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-3.5 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Rico DowdleRB

20 att, 87 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

14 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Jalen TolbertWR

7/10 for 87 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Jake FergusonTE

6/7 for 70 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DALDAL 437212:25Field goal +3
2PITPIT 2512475:02Field goal +3
3DALDAL 305141:01Punt
4PITPIT 266-31:51Punt
5DALDAL 249564:41Fumble
6PITPIT 204102:40Punt
7DALDAL 348413:29Field goal +3
8PITPIT 3011265:46Punt
9DALDAL 157702:13Interception
10PITPIT 2390:52End of half
11PITPIT 288573:10Touchdown +7
12DALDAL 309503:06Missed field goal
13PITPIT 275261:21Punt
14DALDAL 1017958:32Touchdown +7
15PITPIT 34550:57Punt
16DALDAL 146282:26Interception
17PITPIT 3713565:32Touchdown +7
18DALDAL 3017704:36Touchdown +7
19PITPIT 213-70:20Fumble

7 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 95 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dak Prescott29/4235222210.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rico Dowdle20874.300.7
Ezekiel Elliott6172.80-1.8
Hunter Luepke263.000.5
Dak Prescott133.000.3
CeeDee Lamb122.00-0.4
Kavontae Turpin1-6-6.00-1.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jalen Tolbert71087124%3.9
Jake Ferguson6770017%5.4
CeeDee Lamb5962022%-0.9
Kavontae Turpin4550012%4.8
Rico Dowdle222715%3.6
Brevyn Spann-Ford232007%1.2
Hunter Luepke111802%1.8
Jalen Brooks111002%1.0
Luke Schoonmaker12805%-0.5
Ezekiel Elliott01002%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Eric Kendricks460.001
DeMarvion Overshown610.001
Chauncey Golston140.500
Malik Hooker410.001
Mazi Smith310.000
Amani Oruwariye310.000
Trevon Diggs200.000
Osa Odighizuwa110.500
Juanyeh Thomas110.000
Tyrus Wheat110.500

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields15/27131203-3.5
Kyle Allen1/1190001.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Najee Harris14423.000.8
Justin Fields6274.504.8
Aaron Shampklin4143.50-1.0
Jonathan Ward294.50-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Najee Harris223508%2.9
George Pickens3726027%-2.7
Van Jefferson3526019%1.0
Connor Heyward2423115%0.6
Pat Freiermuth3322112%2.7
Brandon Johnson11904%0.7
Calvin Austin12608%-0.1
Darnell Washington12508%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Patrick Queen630.000
Payton Wilson540.000
DeShon Elliott540.001
Minkah Fitzpatrick720.001
T.J. Watt711.500
Joey Porter310.011
Donte Jackson400.011
Beanie Bishop300.001
Cameron Heyward120.000
Nick Herbig110.500

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Closing total
43.5
DAL moneyline
+114
PIT moneyline
-135

Steelers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 37 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
67°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
DAL 10 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Mike Tomlin