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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Packers168 of 182 plays carry both curves
(11:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 85-T.Kraft for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −22.4 for RamsExpected points −5.77 for RamsThe model had Rams 11 points higher than the market did.play 96
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 11:26LA +22% win prob(11:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 85-T.Kraft for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:17GB +15% win prob(1:17) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at GB 45 for -7 yards (sack split by 91-P.Smith and 94-K.Brooks).
4th · 1:05GB +15% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 86-C.Parkinson [56-E.Cooper].
2nd · 2:12GB +14% win prob(2:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right INTERCEPTED by 39-J.McCollough [0-B.Young] at GB 4. 39-J.McCollough for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:10GB +13% win prob(12:10) 23-K.Williams up the middle to GB 25 for 2 yards (90-L.Van Ness, 55-K.Enagbare). FUMBLES (55-K.Enagbare), touched at GB 24, RECOVERED by GB-29-X.McKinney at GB 23. 29-X.McKinney to GB 30 for 7 yards (69-K.Dotson).
1st · 7:41LA +13% win prob(7:41) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 11-J.Reed to LA 2 for 53 yards (37-Q.Lake).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tucker Kraft's 66-yard touchdown catch with 11:26 left in the 3rd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
2nd2:12Jaylen McCollough·4-yd defence TD4-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · kick blocked by C.Wooden+67–13
2nd0:02Brayden Narveson·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+310–13
3rd11:26Tucker Kraft·66-yd TD catch66-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan LoveLead never changed again+717–13
3rd4:00Tucker Kraft·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+724–13
4th3:34Demarcus Robinson·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford · two-point no good+624–19
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryRams
Packers4–4Rams
330Total yards370
5.9Yards per play4.8
43%Success rate53%
13%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays4
17First downs24
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers2
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Rams, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Packers: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.10Rams: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Packers: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.19Rams: −0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Packers: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.05Rams: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 56 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Rams’s 77 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Rams 3.
NoteRams outgained Packers 370-330 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's play-action rate, 3.4%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 1.5 points clear of the next team along.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
LA's blitz rate sent, 37.9%, is past their previous high of 34.6% in week 4 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Rams10.3%
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteLA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 80.0%, 48.4 points above their season mean of 31.6% and 1.9 times their own 25.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Love pass+23% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 85-T.Kraft for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 11:26 · Packers · 2nd & 6 at GB 34 · gained 66 · +5.77 EP · +22.8% win probability
166 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 96 yards from the GB 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
46%
Yards
698
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR73-0.1164%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.0056%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1530%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 33
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Rams 41
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Packers6Rams0
Packers7Rams0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 4 to the Rams 2
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Packers 4
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 5 to the Packers 13
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 45 to the Packers 43
2nd quarter50 plays
Packers7Rams6
Packers7Rams7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 36 to the Packers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 31
Punt12 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Packers 29
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
Packers7Rams13
Touchdown4 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Packers 13
Packers10Rams13
Field goal15 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Rams 19
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter35 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Packers 27
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Packers16Rams13
Packers17Rams13
Touchdown3 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 34
Intercepted9 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Packers 48
Packers23Rams13
Packers24Rams13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 46 to the Rams 7
The period ended9 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Packers 47
4th quarter59 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt19 plays, from the Packers 7 to the Rams 36
Packers24Rams19
Touchdown14 plays, from the Rams 9 to the Packers 1
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 43
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Packers 38
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -3
Closing total
49.5
Packers moneyline
-155
Rams moneyline
+130
Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 43 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Packers 7 days · Rams 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Sean McVay
2nd · 0:37
GB +12% win prob
(:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at LA 28 for -9 yards (91-K.Turner). FUMBLES (91-K.Turner) [91-K.Turner], ball out of bounds at LA 33. PENALTY on GB-10-J.Love, Illegal Forward Pass, 5 yards, enforced at LA 33.
4th · 1:57LA +11% win prob(1:57) 23-K.Williams up the middle to GB 43 for 3 yards (33-E.Williams; 21-E.Stokes).
