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2024 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
ColtsIndianapolis34
BY 3final margin
JaguarsJacksonville37
Indianapolis Colts 34 at Jacksonville Jaguars 37. Final.
Jaguars -3.5 no coverO 45 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 5
Jacksonville Jaguars 37, Colts 34 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:50, 1st and 10, on Alec Pierce — 27.0 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:50 · 1st and 10
Alec Pierce
Colts
(2:50) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Jaguars closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Jacksonville Jaguars 37–34 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:50, Colts +27.0% win probability on one snap.
27.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brian ThomasJaguarsQ2 7:12(7:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.8pts
Joe FlaccoJaguarsQ2 0:15(:15) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at IND 36 for -10 yards (44-T.Walker). FUMBLES (44-T.Walker), touched at IND 35, RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Hines-Allen at IND 25. 41-J.Hines-Allen to IND 12 for 13 yards (15-J.Flacco; 31-T.Goodson).
16.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 6 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Jaguars at 2 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 14 on third down, against Jaguars at 4 of 10 on third down.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Jaguars at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Colts168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(2:50) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −27.0 for JaguarsExpected points −5.44 for JaguarsModel and market agree here.play 162
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:50JAX +27% win prob(2:50) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:12JAX +21% win prob(7:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:15IND +17% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at IND 36 for -10 yards (44-T.Walker). FUMBLES (44-T.Walker), touched at IND 35, RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Hines-Allen at IND 25. 41-J.Hines-Allen to IND 12 for 13 yards (15-J.Flacco; 31-T.Goodson).
4th · 2:40JAX +14% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 2-D.Johnson to JAX 39 for 9 yards (33-S.Womack).
4th · 13:39JAX +13% win prob(13:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 13-C.Kirk to IND 23 for 61 yards (20-N.Cross; 40-J.Jones).
4th · 0:21JAX +13% win prob(:21) 39-C.Little 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cam Little's 49-yard field goal with 0:21 left in the 4th put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:54Michael Pittman·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+77–0
2nd8:59Cam Little·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+37–3
4th2:50Alec Pierce·65-yd TD catch65-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+734–34
4th0:21Cam Little·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.MatiscikLead never changed again+334–37
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryJaguars
Colts6–3Jaguars
448Total yards497
6.6Yards per play8.7
44%Success rate42%
50%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays6
24First downs20
4Sacks taken0
1Turnovers2
The read
Colts ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.26Colts: +0.26 expected points added per play
+0.28Jaguars: +0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.31Colts: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.40Jaguars: +0.40 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Colts: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.10Jaguars: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 68 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 57 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Colts 6, Jaguars 6.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 3.3 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 4.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
high through week 5Against their seasonOver Expected
IND's pass rate over expected, +7.3 pts, is past their previous high of −5.2 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
IND's early-down pass rate, 71.7%, is past their previous high of 65.9% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 12 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.4 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Jaguars12.0%
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
NoteIND's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 7.3 pts, 16.0 points above their season mean of -8.7 pts and 2.0 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
79Bernhard RaimannT · Every snap100%70 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%70 snaps
60Tanor BortoliniC · Every snap100%70 snaps
72Braden SmithT · Every snap100%70 snaps
15Joe FlaccoQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time89%62 snaps
14Alec PierceWR · Heavy rotation74%52 snaps
75Will FriesG · Heavy rotation64%45 snaps
1Josh DownsWR · Heavy rotation61%43 snaps
27Trey SermonRB · Heavy rotation59%41 snaps
31Tyler GoodsonRB · Rotational41%29 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational41%29 snaps
85Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational37%26 snaps
68Dalton TuckerG · Rotational36%25 snaps
10Adonai MitchellWR · Rotational27%19 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Rotational26%18 snaps
86Will MalloryTE · Situational23%16 snaps
16Ashton DulinWR · Situational21%15 snaps
Inactive · 7
Ryan KellyCKenny Moore IICBKwity PayeDEAnthony RichardsonQBJonathan TaylorRBBlake FreelandTAnthony GouldWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Sam EhlingerQBEvan HullRB
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
77Anton HarrisonT · Every snap100%58 snaps
76Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%58 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%58 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
68Brandon ScherffG · Every snap100%58 snaps
65Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%58 snaps
85Brenton StrangeTE · Full-time84%49 snaps
0Gabe DavisWR · Heavy rotation78%45 snaps
7Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Heavy rotation64%37 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Heavy rotation53%31 snaps
89Luke FarrellTE · Rotational47%27 snaps
4Tank BigsbyRB · Rotational40%23 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Rotational38%22 snaps
15Tim JonesWR · Situational24%14 snaps
2D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Situational22%13 snaps
81Josiah DeguaraTE · Situational17%10 snaps
11Parker WashingtonWR · Situational14%8 snaps
12Devin DuvernayWR · Situational12%7 snaps
72Walker LittleT · Situational7%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Myles ColeDEJordan JeffersonDTYasir AbdullahOLBDaniel ThomasSSCole Van LanenTJavon FosterTEvan EngramTE
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Flacco pass+29% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:50) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:50 · Colts · 1st & 10 at IND 35 · gained 65 · +5.44 EP · +29.3% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 85 yards from the JAX 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.19
Success rate
49%
Yards
944
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.2076%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1977%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.4663%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.3938%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.9440%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Colts6Jaguars0
Colts7Jaguars0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Colts 29 to the Jaguars 1
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Colts 26
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Colts 48
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 11 to the Jaguars 37
2nd quarter50 plays
Colts7Jaguars3
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 39 to the Colts 4
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 39
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Colts7Jaguars9
Colts7Jaguars10
Touchdown2 plays
Colts10Jaguars10
Field goal14 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Jaguars 12
The period ended8 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 46
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended4 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Colts 46
Colts10Jaguars13
Field goal1 play
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Colts 47
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 6 to the Colts 17
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jaguars 44 to the Colts 41
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 2 to the Colts 7
Colts10Jaguars19
Colts10Jaguars20
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended17 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Jaguars 13
4th quarter56 plays
Colts16Jaguars20
Colts17Jaguars20
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Colts17Jaguars26
Colts17Jaguars27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Colts 4
Colts20Jaguars27
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Jaguars 19
Colts20Jaguars33
Colts20Jaguars34
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 35
Colts26Jaguars34
Colts27Jaguars34
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Jaguars 1
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Colts33Jaguars34
Colts34Jaguars34
Touchdown4 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Colts 35
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Colts34Jaguars37
Field goal12 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Colts 30
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
