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2024 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

34

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

37

JAX -3.5 no coverO 45 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 37–34 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:50, JAX +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑IND ↓
Q4 · 2:50IND 33 — JAX 34IND ball · 1st & 10JAX 86%

(2:50) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 2:50JAX +27% win prob(2:50) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 7:12JAX +21% win prob(7:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 0:15IND +17% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at IND 36 for -10 yards (44-T.Walker). FUMBLES (44-T.Walker), touched at IND 35, RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Hines-Allen at IND 25. 41-J.Hines-Allen to IND 12 for 13 yards (15-J.Flacco; 31-T.Goodson).
  4. Q4 · 2:40JAX +14% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 2-D.Johnson to JAX 39 for 9 yards (33-S.Womack).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:54IND Touchdown

    (8:54) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 11-M.Pittman for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — JAX 0
  2. Q2 · 8:59JAX Field goal

    (8:59) 39-C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: IND 7 — JAX 3
  3. Q2 · 7:12JAX Touchdown

    (7:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — JAX 10
  4. Q2 · 1:47IND Field goal

    (1:47) 7-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 10 — JAX 10
  5. Q2 · 0:06JAX Field goal

    (:06) 39-C.Little 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: IND 10 — JAX 13
  6. Q3 · 7:21JAX Touchdown

    (7:21) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle to IND 1 for 18 yards (97-L.Latu). FUMBLES (97-L.Latu), and recovers at IND -3. TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 10 — JAX 20
  7. Q4 · 15:00IND Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 17 — JAX 20
  8. Q4 · 10:05JAX Touchdown

    (10:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 17 — JAX 27
  9. Q4 · 6:04IND Field goal

    (6:04) 7-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 20 — JAX 27
  10. Q4 · 5:21JAX Touchdown

    (5:21) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 20 — JAX 34
  11. Q4 · 4:32IND Touchdown

    (4:32) (Shotgun) 27-T.Sermon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 27 — JAX 34
  12. Q4 · 2:50IND Touchdown

    (2:50) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 34 — JAX 34
  13. Q4 · 0:21JAX Field goal

    (:21) 39-C.Little 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: IND 34 — JAX 37

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsJaguars
Offensive plays6857
Total yards448497 (edge)
Yards per play6.68.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.260.28 (edge)
Success rate44% (edge)42%
Dropback rate74%60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.310.40 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.11 (edge)0.10
Third downs7/14 (edge)4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)20
Sacks taken40 (edge)
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs 0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

28/34, 371 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

16.8 expected points added · +11.4% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Joe FlaccoQB

33/44, 359 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

10.4 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Tank BigsbyRB

13 att, 101 yds, 2 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Trey SermonRB

10 att, 38 yds, 1 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Alec PierceWR

3/3 for 134 yds, 1 TD

7% of team targets · 10.4 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Brian ThomasWR

5/8 for 122 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 2914866:11Touchdown +7
2JAXJAX 3010445:12Turnover on downs
3INDIND 265221:54Punt
4JAXJAX 1114847:46Field goal +3
5INDIND 30591:45Punt
6JAXJAX 152850:10Touchdown +7
7INDIND 3013585:18Field goal +3
8JAXJAX 307361:17Fumble
9INDIND 34310:21Fumble
10JAXIND 12100:02Field goal +3
11INDIND 30200:04End of half
12JAXJAX 307203:23Punt
13INDIND 6461:15Punt
14JAXJAX 443151:19Interception
15INDIND 2451:42Punt
16JAXIND 192190:08Touchdown +7
17INDIND 3017757:19Touchdown +7
18JAXJAX 309854:55Touchdown +7
19INDIND 309513:59Field goal +3
20JAXJAX 304700:51Touchdown +7
21INDIND 305700:42Touchdown +7
22JAXJAX 30501:02Punt
23INDIND 233820:45Touchdown +7
24JAXJAX 309392:23Field goal +3
25INDIND 303-170:17End of game

13 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 86 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Flacco33/4435930410.4
Adonai Mitchell1/1240002.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Trey Sermon10383.81-0.1
Tyler Goodson5265.200.7
Joe Flacco3227.303.1
Ashton Dulin199.000.8
Adonai Mitchell144.000.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Alec Pierce3313417%10.4
Josh Downs91269027%1.4
Adonai Mitchell4738016%-0.4
Michael Pittman5837118%0.6
Mo Alie-Cox243719%4.0
Tyler Goodson333107%2.0
Trey Sermon6625013%-0.6
Will Mallory11702%1.1
Andrew Ogletree11502%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zaire Franklin370.001
Laiatu Latu420.000
Jaylon Jones410.002
Grover Stewart410.000
Nick Cross130.011
Samuel Womack310.001
Jaylon Carlies220.000
E.J. Speed310.000
Julian Blackmon300.000
Dallis Flowers200.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence28/3437121016.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tank Bigsby131017.820.7
Travis Etienne6172.80-0.3
Trevor Lawrence242.002.6
Devin Duvernay133.00-0.3
D'Ernest Johnson111.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brian Thomas58122124%2.0
Christian Kirk4488012%6.4
Travis Etienne6743021%0.9
Gabe Davis3438012%-1.2
Tank Bigsby112803%2.2
Brenton Strange4424112%2.6
Luke Farrell221706%1.1
D'Ernest Johnson23909%-0.4
Josiah Deguara11203%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Antonio Johnson630.000
Montaric Brown440.000
Andre Cisco610.001
Ventrell Miller610.000
Devin Lloyd240.000
Travon Walker413.001
Ronald Darby400.001
Chad Muma120.000
Davon Hamilton110.000
Josh Hines-Allen201.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Closing total
45
IND moneyline
+154
JAX moneyline
-185

Jaguars closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45; the game landed 71 — over by 26.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
74°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
IND 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Doug Pederson

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.