2024 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2024 · Empower Field at Mile High

Las Vegas Raiders

Denver BroncosWinner

DEN -3 ✓O 36 ✓Broncos closed -3 and covered, winning by 16.

Denver Broncos 34–18. Biggest swing: Q2 8:59, LV +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 8:59LV 10 — DEN 9LV ball · 1st & 5LV 74%

(8:59) 15-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 2-P.Surtain at DEN 0. 2-P.Surtain for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 8:59LV +31% win prob(8:59) 15-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 2-P.Surtain at DEN 0. 2-P.Surtain for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 12:27DEN +12% win prob(12:27) 3-W.Lutz 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q1 · 13:08DEN +11% win prob(13:08) 15-G.Minshew pass deep left to 89-B.Bowers for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 2:28DEN +9% win prob(2:28) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass short left to 33-J.Williams to DEN 36 for 26 yards (69-A.Butler).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 13:08LV Touchdown
(13:08) 15-G.Minshew pass deep left to 89-B.Bowers for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 7 — DEN 0
Q1 · 1:30LV Field goal
(1:30) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 10 — DEN 0
Q2 · 12:27DEN Field goal
(12:27) 3-W.Lutz 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: LV 10 — DEN 3
Q2 · 8:59DEN Touchdown
(8:59) 15-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 2-P.Surtain at DEN 0. 2-P.Surtain for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 10 — DEN 10
Q2 · 0:00DEN Field goal
(:00) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Penalty on LV-34-T.Harper, Defensive Offside, declined.
Score after this play: LV 10 — DEN 13
Q3 · 7:01DEN Touchdown
(7:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 38-J.McLaughlin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 10 — DEN 20
Q4 · 10:14DEN Touchdown
(10:14) 10-B.Nix up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-60-L.Wattenberg was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 10 — DEN 27
Q4 · 8:19DEN Touchdown
(8:19) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 11-J.Reynolds for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-C.Snowden]. Penalty on LV-45-T.Eichenberg, Defensive Holding, declined. Penalty on LV-0-J.Bennett, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 10 — DEN 34
Q4 · 4:06LV Touchdown
(4:06) (No Huddle) 8-A.Abdullah up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-98-J.Franklin-Myers, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 1 yard, enforced between downs. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: LV 18 — DEN 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Broncos
Offensive plays	66	54
Total yards	332 (edge)	293
Yards per play	5.0	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.20	0.07 (edge)
Success rate	38%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	0.06 (edge)
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Raiders outgained Broncos 332–293 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

19/27, 206 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.5 expected points added · +2.4% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Gardner MinshewQB

12/17, 137 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-10.4 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

13 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Ameer AbdullahRB

5 att, 42 yds, 1 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Brock BowersTE

8/12 for 97 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · -10.5 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Jakobi MeyersWR

6/9 for 72 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 30	6	70	2:03	Touchdown +7
2	DEN	DEN 25	9	22	3:24	Punt
3	LV	LV 10	13	68	8:06	Field goal +3
4	DEN	DEN 41	8	41	4:04	Field goal +3
5	LV	LV 31	7	64	3:40	Defensive touchdown
6	LV	LV 30	5	2	1:38	Punt
7	DEN	DEN 7	4	8	1:29	Punt
8	LV	50	4	8	1:38	Punt
9	DEN	DEN 3	7	31	2:25	Punt
10	LV	LV 13	4	14	1:06	Punt
11	DEN	DEN 36	5	23	0:27	Field goal +3
12	DEN	DEN 30	5	7	1:30	Punt
13	LV	LV 24	7	4	3:36	Punt
14	DEN	50	7	45	3:00	Touchdown +7
15	LV	LV 30	6	10	2:38	Interception
16	DEN	DEN 37	6	19	2:45	Punt
17	LV	LV 20	4	4	1:31	Punt
18	DEN	DEN 42	9	53	4:48	Touchdown +7
19	LV	LV 20	2	0	0:05	Interception
20	DEN	LV 39	5	39	1:53	Touchdown +7
21	LV	LV 25	14	74	4:13	Touchdown +8
22	DEN	LV 44	5	5	0:57	Punt
23	LV	LV 10	7	14	1:09	Turnover on downs
24	DEN	LV 14	3	0	1:55	End of game

8 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 74 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	12/17	137	1	2	2	-10.4
Aidan O'Connell	10/20	94	0	1	1	-5.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ameer Abdullah	5	42	8.4	1	1.4
Alexander Mattison	15	38	2.5	0	-3.5
Gardner Minshew	2	22	11.0	0	4.5
Tre Tucker	2	8	4.0	0	0.0
D.J. Turner	1	5	5.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brock Bowers	8	12	97	1	33%	-10.5
Jakobi Meyers	6	9	72	0	25%	4.5
Alexander Mattison	2	3	23	0	8%	1.2
Tre Tucker	2	5	18	0	14%	-1.4
D.J. Turner	1	4	12	0	11%	-3.8
Ameer Abdullah	3	3	9	0	8%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Robert Spillane	5	4	0.0	0
Trevon Moehrig	4	4	0.0	1
Charles Snowden	2	3	0.0	0
Isaiah Pola-Mao	3	1	0.0	0
Christian Wilkins	3	1	1.0	0
Nate Hobbs	1	2	0.0	0
Jack Jones	2	1	0.0	1
Thomas Harper	2	1	0.0	0
Maxx Crosby	3	0	2.0	0
Christopher Smith	1	1	0.0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bo Nix	19/27	206	2	0	3	2.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Javonte Williams	13	61	4.7	0	3.8
Jaleel McLaughlin	6	22	3.7	0	-2.1
Marvin Mims	1	17	17.0	0	1.7
Bo Nix	8	9	1.1	1	-6.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Javonte Williams	5	6	50	0	23%	0.8
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	2	2	48	0	8%	3.6
Courtland Sutton	2	5	32	0	19%	0.8
Troy Franklin	1	2	20	0	8%	-1.3
Adam Trautman	1	1	19	0	4%	2.0
Josh Reynolds	1	2	9	1	8%	1.1
Nate Adkins	1	1	8	0	4%	0.4
Marvin Mims	1	1	7	0	4%	0.5
Michael Burton	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.1
Lucas Krull	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.2
Jaleel McLaughlin	3	4	3	1	15%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Brandon Jones	2	5	0.0	0	0
Cody Barton	6	0	0.0	0	0
Justin Strnad	4	2	0.0	0	0
Zach Allen	4	2	1.0	0	0
Ja'Quan McMillian	5	0	0.0	0	1
Riley Moss	3	1	0.0	1	2
P.J. Locke	1	2	0.0	0	1
Malcolm Roach	1	2	0.0	0	0
Patrick Surtain	2	1	0.0	2	2
D.J. Jones	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -3
Closing total: 36
LV moneyline: +130
DEN moneyline: -155

Broncos closed -3 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 36; the game landed 52 — over by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 73°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: LV 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Antonio Pierce vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.