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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Raiders170 of 181 plays carry both curves
(8:59) 15-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 2-P.Surtain at DEN 0. 2-P.Surtain for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +31.0 for BroncosExpected points +12.69 for BroncosThe model had Raiders 4 points higher than the market did.play 49
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 8:59LV +31% win prob(8:59) 15-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 2-P.Surtain at DEN 0. 2-P.Surtain for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:27DEN +12% win prob(12:27) 3-W.Lutz 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
1st · 13:08DEN +11% win prob(13:08) 15-G.Minshew pass deep left to 89-B.Bowers for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:28DEN +9% win prob(2:28) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass short left to 33-J.Williams to DEN 36 for 26 yards (69-A.Butler).
2nd · 1:40DEN +9% win prob(1:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to LV 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 8-A.Abdullah.
2nd · 0:18DEN +7% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 16-T.Franklin to LV 41 for 20 yards (18-J.Jones).
2nd · 0:34
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 44-yard field goal with 0:00 left in the 2nd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Broncos ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.20Raiders: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.07Broncos: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.27Raiders: −0.27 expected points added per play
+0.08Broncos: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Raiders: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.06Broncos: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 66 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Broncos’s 54 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 3, Broncos 4.
NoteRaiders outgained Broncos 332-293 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's pass rate over expected turned over: −15.5 pts in week 4 against +0.9 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +0.4 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Broncos14.3%
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteDEN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 16.1%, 10.9 points below their season mean of 27.0% and 1.0 times their own 10.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
58Jackson Powers-JohnsonG · Every snap100%70 snaps
—Delmar GlazeT · Every snap100%70 snaps
66Dylan ParhamG · Every snap100%70 snaps
68Andre JamesC · Every snap100%70 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%70 snaps
16Jakobi MeyersWR · Full-time97%68 snaps
11Tre TuckerWR · Full-time84%59 snaps
89Brock BowersTE · Heavy rotation79%55 snaps
19DJ TurnerWR · Heavy rotation74%52 snaps
15Gardner MinshewQB · Heavy rotation63%44 snaps
22Alexander MattisonRB · Heavy rotation57%40 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Minshew pass−34% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(8:59) 15-G.Minshew pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 2-P.Surtain at DEN 0. 2-P.Surtain for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 8:59 · Raiders · 1st & goal at DEN 5 · gained nothing · -12.69 EP · −33.9% win probability
168 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 75 yards from the LV 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
41%
Yards
621
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.0770%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.0263%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.8239%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.1714%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.3420%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Raiders6Broncos0
Raiders7Broncos0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 43
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 47
Raiders10Broncos0
Field goal14 plays, from the Raiders 10 to the Broncos 22
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 41 to the Raiders 43
2nd quarter55 plays
Raiders10Broncos3
Field goal6 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Raiders10Broncos9
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Broncos 5
Raiders10Broncos10
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 32
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 7 to the Broncos 15
Punt4 plays, from midfield to the Broncos 42
Punt11 plays, from the Broncos 3 to the Broncos 36
The period ended9 plays, from the Raiders 13 to the Raiders 17
Raiders10Broncos13
Field goal6 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Raiders 26
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 33
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 36
Raiders10Broncos19
Raiders10Broncos20
Touchdown8 plays, from midfield to the Raiders 3
Intercepted6 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 43
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 37 to the Raiders 44
Punt5 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Raiders10Broncos26
Raiders10Broncos27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 42 to the Raiders 1
Intercepted2 plays
Raiders10Broncos33
Raiders10Broncos34
Touchdown5 plays, from the Raiders 39 to the Raiders 9
Raiders16Broncos34
Raiders18Broncos34
Touchdown15 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 3
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 44 to the Raiders 39
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Raiders 10 to the Raiders 22
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
