Dolphins 15 – Patriots 10 (2024 Week 5) | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability

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Dolphins 15 – Patriots 10 (2024 Week 5) | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability | Dynatyze

Derived from the play-by-play, no model

The Read

12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.

highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's play-action rate, 43.2%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
- Past their previous high of 38.5% in week 3.
- A 2.4-swing turn from week 4.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's early-down pass rate, 42.9%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
- Past their previous low of 48.7% in week 4.
63 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
MIA's pass rate over expected, −13.2 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 4.2 points clear of the next team along.
75 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
high through week 5Against their seasonTendencies
MIA's sack or hit rate, 25.0%, is past their previous high of 18.9% in week 3 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
- 2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
low through week 5Against their seasonFourth Down
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 33.3% in week 1 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.3 points.
reversed last weekAgainst last weekFourth Down
NE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 4 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.7 points.

The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game

Was this normal for them?

12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.

their week-to-week swingall 32 teams

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts

Over Expected room →

Dolphins-13.2 pts

leaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.9 vs their -2.3 pts, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 75 snaps

Patriots-3.9 pts

right on their number · −0.8 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 54 snaps

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 85%

Tendencies room →

Dolphins42.9%

leaned — ran early · −12.7 vs their 55.5%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 63 early downs

Patriots57.5%

right on their number · +1.2 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 40 early downs

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 52%

Tendencies room →

Dolphins43.2%

leaned — faked the run · +18.4 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+1.75× that swing) · 37 dropbacks

Patriots13.9%

inside their normal wobble · −3.1 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 36 dropbacks

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -54% to 118%

Fourth Down room →

Dolphins0.0%

leaned — took the kick · −43.5 vs their 43.5%, and they swing ±28.3 week to week (−1.54× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls

Patriots0.0%

inside their normal wobble · −32.2 vs their 32.2%, and they swing ±33.7 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 69%

Tendencies room →

Dolphins38.9%

right on their number · +4.9 vs their 34.0%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 36 dropbacks

Patriots32.4%

right on their number · −2.7 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±13.1 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 37 dropbacks

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 28%

Tendencies room →

Dolphins25.0%

off script — got home · +12.4 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+2.07× that swing) · 36 dropbacks

Patriots10.8%

right on their number · +0.6 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 37 dropbacks

MIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 12.4 points above their season mean of 12.6% and 2.1 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.

The Game Day Roster

Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.

Miami Dolphins

48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used

65Robert JonesG · Every snap100%78 snaps
73Austin JacksonT · Every snap100%78 snaps
74Liam EichenbergG · Every snap100%78 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Every snap100%78 snaps
18Tyler HuntleyQB · Every snap100%78 snaps
55Aaron BrewerG · Every snap100%78 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Heavy rotation79%62 snaps
17Jaylen WaddleWR · Heavy rotation78%61 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Heavy rotation56%44 snaps
30Alec IngoldFB · Heavy rotation54%42 snaps
89Julian HillTE · Heavy rotation51%40 snaps
9Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational41%32 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Rotational35%27 snaps
25Jaylen WrightRB · Rotational32%25 snaps
83Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational26%20 snaps
0Braxton BerriosWR · Situational19%15 snaps
3Odell Beckham Jr.WR · Situational14%11 snaps
28De'Von AchaneRB · Situational14%11 snaps

Inactive · 7

Andrew MeyerCEthan BonnerCBChanning TindallILBMohamed KamaraOLBSkylar ThompsonQBJeff WilsonRBJordan PoyerSS

Dressed, never took a snap · 1

Tim BoyleQB

New England Patriots

48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used

71Mike OnwenuG · Every snap100%60 snaps
75Demontrey JacobsT · Every snap100%60 snaps
74Mike JordanG · Every snap100%60 snaps
7Jacoby BrissettQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
59Vederian LoweT · Every snap100%60 snaps
51Nick LeverettG · Every snap100%60 snaps
1Ja'Lynn PolkWR · Every snap100%60 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Full-time93%56 snaps
9Kayshon BoutteWR · Heavy rotation67%40 snaps
3Demario DouglasWR · Heavy rotation67%40 snaps
4Antonio GibsonRB · Rotational47%28 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Rotational47%28 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Rotational42%25 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational27%16 snaps
39JaMycal HastyRB · Situational5%3 snaps
—Zachary ThomasT · Situational5%3 snaps
11Tyquan ThorntonWR · Situational2%1 snap

Inactive · 7

Jamree KromahDEKyle DuggerFSJoe Milton IIIQBJabrill PeppersSSJaheim BellTEK.J. OsbornWRJavon BakerWR

Dressed, never took a snap · 4

Bryan HudsonCEric JohnsonDTDrake MayeQBZach ThomasT

The Opportunity Board

What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.

Share card

Rhamondre Stevenson banked 7.2 more points than his own workload asked for.

20 points plotted

Player	Full PPR	Vs expected	Snap share	Routes	Targets	Air yards	Line
Rhamondre StevensonRB · Bell Cow Back	19.2	+7.2	47%	35%	13%	0%	12 car, 89 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 3 yd
Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver	12.9	−2.9	79%	81%	29%	27%	6/9, 69 yd
Demario DouglasWR · Alpha Receiver	11.9	−2.2	67%	78%	30%	30%	6/9, 59 yd
Raheem MostertRB · Committee Back	11.8	−0.6	56%	57%	6%	0%	19 car, 80 yd · 2/2, 18 yd
Jonnu SmithTE · Alpha Receiver	11.1	−1.6	41%	59%	26%	24%	1 car, -1 yd · 5/8, 62 yd
Jaylen WrightRB	8.6	+2.0	32%	24%	0%	—	13 car, 86 yd
Jaylen WaddleWR · Alpha Receiver	8.6	−3.2	78%	81%	26%	29%	4/8, 46 yd
Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB	7.4	−5.3	100%	—	0%	—	18/34, 160 yd · 1 car, 10 yd
Antonio GibsonRB	6.6	+2.0	47%	51%	3%	0%	6 car, 52 yd · 1/1, 4 yd
Tyler HuntleyQB · Starter QB	6.5	−8.5	100%	—	0%	—	18/31, 194 yd, 1 INT · 3 car, 7 yd
Alec IngoldRB	6.3	+4.2	54%	30%	0%	—	1 car, 3 yd, 1 TD
Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver	5.4	+3.1	67%	59%	7%	11%	2/2, 34 yd
Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver	5.2	−0.8	93%	92%	13%	18%	2/4, 32 yd
Devon AchaneRB	2.7	0.0	14%	19%	3%	0%	3 car, 18 yd · 1/1, -1 yd
Ja'Lynn PolkWR · Featured Receiver	2.3	−6.5	100%	97%	20%	31%	1/6, 13 yd
Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver	1.9	−3.8	42%	35%	10%	8%	1/3, 9 yd
Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver	1.6	+0.2	27%	24%	3%	0%	1/1, 6 yd
Tanner ConnerTE	0.0	—	—	—	—	—	Did not take a snap.
Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver	0.0	−2.3	35%	22%	3%	8%	0/1, 0 yd
Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver	0.0	−1.1	51%	38%	0%	0%	No touches.
Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver	0.0	—	19%	14%	0%	—	No touches.
Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver	0.0	—	26%	24%	0%	—	No touches.
Odell BeckhamWR · Rotational Receiver	0.0	−3.6	14%	24%	6%	13%	0/2, 0 yd

1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.

Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.

The Film Room · post-game

Post-game film: 179 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.

Possession by possession

The field rail

6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 80 yards from the MIA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.

Every snap

Play stream

179 of 179 plays

Team

Quarter

Down

Play type

Expected points added

Event

Charted

Plays shown

179

EPA per play

-0.10

Success rate

40%

Yards

671

Who was on the field

Personnel groupings

Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.

Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR36+0.1828%

Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.0174%

Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.5380%

Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.0353%

Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10+0.0130%

Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.2275%

Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——

Dolphins0 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——

Dolphins0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——

Patriots0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——

snapsepapass rate

179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved

Every play

Ball

When

Play

Only

Who

179 plays

Bar length is win probability the play moved

1st quarter37 plays

Dolphins3Patriots0

Field goal9 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Patriots 36

Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 37

How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds

Intercepted6 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Dolphins 36

Dolphins3Patriots6
Dolphins3Patriots7

Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 43 to the Dolphins 33

No good10 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Patriots 20

2nd quarter51 plays

Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Patriots 40

Fumble lost7 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 32

No good9 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Dolphins 11

How the play was built
Two in the backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders

Punt10 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Patriots 25

Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 5 to the Patriots 13

Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Patriots 44 to the Patriots 28

Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 42 to the Patriots 47

The period ended3 plays

3rd quarter39 plays

Dolphins3Patriots10

Field goal12 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Dolphins 20

Dolphins6Patriots10

Field goal10 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Patriots 14

Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 38

Dolphins9Patriots10

Field goal9 plays, from the Dolphins 14 to the Patriots 29

The period ended3 plays

4th quarter52 plays

Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Dolphins 43

Dolphins15Patriots10

Touchdown17 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Patriots 3

How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds

Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Dolphins 12

The period ended7 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Dolphins 26

How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds

The period ended4 plays, from the Patriots 43 to the Dolphins 36

Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published

Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Patriots, every play.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyler Huntley	18/31	194	0	1	3	−3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jaylen Wright	13	86	6.6	+2.7
Raheem Mostert	19	80	4.2	+0.1
Devon Achane	3	18	6.0	+0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	6	9	69	0	29%	+1.4
Jonnu Smith	5	8	62	0	26%	+3.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Marcus Maye	4	4	0.0	0	1
Jordyn Brooks	3	3	0.0	0	0
Jevon Holland	4	1	0.0	0	1
Jalen Ramsey

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jacoby Brissett	18/34	160	0	0	2	−8.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Demario Douglas	6	9	59	30%	+3.7
Kayshon Boutte	2	2	34	7%	+2.7
Hunter Henry	2	4	32	13%	−4.6
Ja'Lynn Polk	1	6	13	20%	−3.5
Austin Hooper	1	3	9	10%	−1.3
Kendrick Bourne	1	1	6	3%	+0.3
Antonio Gibson	1	1	4	3%	+0.0
Rhamondre Stevenson	4	4	3	13%	−0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Raekwon McMillan	3	5	0.0	0	0
Daniel Ekuale	3	5	0.5	0	0
Anfernee Jennings	1	6	0.5	0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	5	2	0.0	0	0
Dell Pettus	4	3	0.0	0	0
Marte Mapu	1	5	0.0	0	1
Christian Gonzalez	6	0	0.0	1	2
Christian Elliss	3	2	0.0	0	0
Davon Godchaux	2	3	0.0	0	1
Jahlani Tavai	1	3	0.0	0	0

Scores & Schedule.

The game.

Scores & Schedule.

The game.

Miami Dolphins 15, Patriots 10 — with the result never quite settled.

How the game was won

Highest-leverage plays

The margin ledger

Situational splits

The Read

Was this normal for them?

The Game Day Roster

Top performers

The Opportunity Board

Every snap, where it happened

The field rail

Play stream

Personnel groupings

Every play

1st quarter37 plays

2nd quarter51 plays

3rd quarter39 plays

4th quarter52 plays

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Rushing

Receiving

Defense (top contributors)

New England Patriots

Passing

Rushing

Take it with you

Betting context

Game environment

Receiving

Defense (top contributors)