2024 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2024 · Gillette Stadium

Miami DolphinsWinner

New England Patriots

MIA -2 ✓U 37 ✓Dolphins closed -2 and covered, winning by 5.

Miami Dolphins 15–10. Biggest swing: Q4 1:00, MIA +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:00MIA 15 — NE 10NE ball · 4th & 15MIA 72%

(1:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep middle to 85-H.Henry.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:00MIA +25% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep middle to 85-H.Henry.
Q4 · 1:58NE +17% win prob(1:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas to MIA 12 for 19 yards (5-J.Ramsey). ** Injury Update: NE-38-R.Stevenson has returned to the game.
Q2 · 2:08MIA +16% win prob(2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley Aborted. 55-A.Brewer FUMBLES at NE 37, recovered by MIA-30-A.Ingold at NE 47. Penalty on MIA, Illegal Shift, declined.
Q4 · 0:12MIA +13% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 85-H.Henry to MIA 11 for 25 yards (20-J.Brooks).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:44MIA Field goal
(10:44) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: MIA 3 — NE 0
Q1 · 4:04NE Touchdown
(4:04) 38-R.Stevenson right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 3 — NE 7
Q3 · 11:04NE Field goal
(11:04) 13-J.Slye 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: MIA 3 — NE 10
Q3 · 7:50MIA Field goal
(7:50) 7-J.Sanders 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: MIA 6 — NE 10
Q3 · 0:35MIA Field goal
(:35) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: MIA 9 — NE 10
Q4 · 4:27MIA Touchdown
(4:27) 30-A.Ingold up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: MIA 15 — NE 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Patriots
Offensive plays	76	54
Total yards	372 (edge)	299
Yards per play	4.9	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.07 (edge)	-0.08
Success rate	37%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	49%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09 (edge)	-0.22
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	0.19 (edge)
Third downs	2/11	4/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	8
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tyler HuntleyQB

18/31, 194 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-3.5 expected points added · -6.8% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Jacoby BrissettQB

18/34, 160 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-8.8 expected points added · -4.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

12 att, 89 yds, 1 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Jaylen WrightRB

13 att, 86 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

6/9 for 69 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Jonnu SmithTE

5/8 for 62 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 26	9	38	4:21	Field goal +3
2	NE	NE 30	5	-5	2:12	Punt
3	MIA	MIA 22	5	9	2:16	Interception
4	NE	MIA 43	5	43	2:16	Touchdown +7
5	MIA	MIA 30	10	47	3:55	Missed field goal
6	NE	NE 31	4	19	2:06	Punt
7	MIA	MIA 20	6	21	2:23	Fumble
8	NE	MIA 23	7	28	4:22	Missed field goal
9	MIA	MIA 23	10	52	4:19	Punt
10	NE	NE 5	4	8	0:55	Punt
11	MIA	NE 44	6	16	0:27	Turnover on downs
12	NE	NE 42	4	5	0:20	Punt
13	MIA	MIA 20	2	2	0:08	End of half
14	NE	NE 30	11	45	3:59	Field goal +3
15	MIA	MIA 30	9	26	3:14	Field goal +3
16	NE	NE 30	5	7	2:02	Punt
17	MIA	MIA 14	9	57	5:15	Field goal +3
18	NE	NE 19	9	38	3:30	Punt
19	MIA	MIA 20	16	95	7:36	Touchdown +6
20	NE	NE 30	12	65	3:29	Turnover on downs
21	MIA	MIA 17	4	9	0:26	Punt
22	NE	NE 43	3	46	0:29	End of game

6 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 95 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyler Huntley	18/31	194	0	1	3	-3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jaylen Wright	13	86	6.6	0	2.7
Raheem Mostert	19	80	4.2	0	0.1
Devon Achane	3	18	6.0	0	0.8
Tyler Huntley	3	7	2.3	0	-3.1
Alec Ingold	1	3	3.0	1	1.0
Jake Bailey	1	0	0.0	0	-2.5
Jonnu Smith	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	6	9	69	29%	1.4
Jonnu Smith	5	8	62	26%	3.5
Jaylen Waddle	4	8	46	26%	0.3
Raheem Mostert	2	2	18	6%	3.1
Durham Smythe	0	1	0	3%	-0.5
Odell Beckham	0	2	0	6%	-5.2
Devon Achane	1	1	-1	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Marcus Maye	4	4	0.0	1
Jordyn Brooks	3	3	0.0	0
Jevon Holland	4	1	0.0	1
Jalen Ramsey	4	1	0.0	2
Kader Kohou	2	2	0.0	1
Anthony Walker	2	1	0.0	1
Elijah Campbell	2	0	0.0	0
Emmanuel Ogbah	2	0	1.0	0
Zach Sieler	1	0	1.0	0
Tanner Conner	1	0	0.0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jacoby Brissett	18/34	160	0	0	2	-8.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	12	89	7.4	1	1.9
Antonio Gibson	6	52	8.7	0	1.5
Jacoby Brissett	1	10	10.0	0	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Demario Douglas	6	9	59	30%	3.7
Kayshon Boutte	2	2	34	7%	2.7
Hunter Henry	2	4	32	13%	-4.6
Ja'Lynn Polk	1	6	13	20%	-3.5
Austin Hooper	1	3	9	10%	-1.3
Kendrick Bourne	1	1	6	3%	0.3
Antonio Gibson	1	1	4	3%	0.0
Rhamondre Stevenson	4	4	3	13%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Raekwon McMillan	3	5	0.0	0	0
Daniel Ekuale	3	5	0.5	0	0
Anfernee Jennings	1	6	0.5	0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	5	2	0.0	0	0
Dell Pettus	4	3	0.0	0	0
Marte Mapu	1	5	0.0	0	1
Christian Gonzalez	6	0	0.0	1	2
Christian Elliss	3	2	0.0	0	0
Davon Godchaux	2	3	0.0	0	1
Jahlani Tavai	1	3	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -2
Closing total: 37
MIA moneyline: -130
NE moneyline: +110

Dolphins closed -2 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 37; the game landed 25 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 65°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: MIA 6 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Mike McDaniel vs Jerod Mayo

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.