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2024 Week 5 · Mon, Oct 7, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

New Orleans Saints

13

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

26

KC -5.5 ✓U 43 ✓

Kansas City Chiefs 26–13. Biggest swing: Q4 14:22, KC +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3KC ↑NO ↓
Q4 · 14:22NO 13 — KC 16NO ball · 2nd & 6KC 82%

(14:22) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 14:22KC +9% win prob(14:22) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 12:04NO +7% win prob(12:04) 4-D.Carr pass deep right intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 6-B.Cook at KC 22. 6-B.Cook to KC 22 for no gain (22-R.Shaheed).
  3. Q2 · 8:43KC +7% win prob(8:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-M.Danna].
  4. Q4 · 13:35KC +7% win prob(13:35) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 9-J.Smith-Schuster pushed ob at NO 14 for 50 yards (24-J.Abram).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:40KC Touchdown

    (6:40) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 0 — KC 7
  2. Q2 · 12:42KC Field goal

    (12:42) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: NO 0 — KC 10
  3. Q2 · 8:43NO Touchdown

    (8:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-M.Danna]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 7 — KC 10
  4. Q2 · 1:35KC Field goal

    (1:35) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: NO 7 — KC 13
  5. Q2 · 0:09KC Field goal

    (:09) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: NO 7 — KC 16
  6. Q4 · 14:22NO Touchdown

    (14:22) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: NO 13 — KC 16
  7. Q4 · 12:00KC Touchdown

    (12:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 87-T.Kelce. 1-X.Worthy right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 13 — KC 23
  8. Q4 · 3:07KC Field goal

    (3:07) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: NO 13 — KC 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSaintsChiefs
Offensive plays5177
Total yards220463 (edge)
Yards per play4.36.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.100.15 (edge)
Success rate35%58% (edge)
Dropback rate75%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.070.17 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.200.12 (edge)
Third downs4/106/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)24 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1226 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers11

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

28/39, 331 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

3.0 expected points added · +10.1% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

18/28, 165 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-0.0 expected points added · +9.4% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

27 att, 102 yds, 1 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

11 att, 26 yds, 0 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

7/8 for 130 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -0.0 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Rashid ShaheedWR

4/9 for 86 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · -0.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NONO 307313:01Interception
2KCKC 2211785:25Touchdown +7
3NONO 30551:45Punt
4KCKC 23431:21Punt
5NONO 23421:02Punt
6KCKC 4010624:47Field goal +3
7NONO 269744:03Touchdown +7
8KCKC 2016797:04Field goal +3
9NONO 21500:34Punt
10KCKC 369550:52Field goal +3
11NO—100:06End of half
12KCKC 2911384:46Missed field goal
13NONO 41763:26Punt
14KCKC 169365:05Interception
15NONO 359602:27Touchdown +6
16KCKC 327642:20Touchdown +7
17NONO 307142:24Turnover on downs
18KCKC 4211486:29Field goal +3
19NONO 2010281:16Turnover on downs
20KCNO 48301:47End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 79 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Derek Carr18/28165211-0.0
Jake Haener2/717000-2.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Alvin Kamara11262.40-2.7
Jake Haener2115.500.1
Jamaal Williams294.500.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Rashid Shaheed4986128%-0.6
Alvin Kamara6840025%2.0
Juwan Johnson5531016%1.5
Foster Moreau221316%3.7
Chris Olave2410013%-1.5
Mason Tipton142013%-4.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Demario Davis560.000
Anfernee Orji630.000
Johnathan Abram620.000
Khalen Saunders250.011
Tyrann Mathieu240.000
Carl Granderson150.000
Alontae Taylor410.000
Marshon Lattimore410.000
Paulson Adebo400.001
Bryan Bresee311.000

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes28/393310123.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kareem Hunt271023.813.5
Patrick Mahomes6223.703.3
Carson Steele5122.40-0.4
Xavier Worthy133.010.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
JuJu Smith-Schuster78130024%-0.0
Travis Kelce91070029%5.2
Mecole Hardman4433012%2.4
Noah Gray222906%1.9
Xavier Worthy3625018%-1.7
Samaje Perine122406%-1.2
Kareem Hunt111503%0.9
Joseph Fortson11503%0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Bolton550.000
Trent McDuffie320.001
Jaylen Watson400.001
Justin Reid310.000
Drue Tranquill120.000
Tershawn Wharton121.000
Chamarri Conner210.000
Bryan Cook200.012
Nazeeh Johnson110.000
Cole Christiansen100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -5.5
Closing total
43
NO moneyline
+190
KC moneyline
-230

Chiefs closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 13.

Total closed 43; the game landed 39 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
70°F, wind 1 mph
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
NO 8 days · KC 8 days
Coaches
Dennis Allen vs Andy Reid