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2024 Week 5 · Mon, Oct 7, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
SaintsNew Orleans13
BY 13final margin
ChiefsKansas City26
New Orleans Saints 13 at Kansas City Chiefs 26. Final.
Chiefs -5.5 ✓U 43 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 5
Kansas City Chiefs 26, Saints 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 14:22, 2nd and 6, on Foster Moreau — 8.7 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:22 · 2nd and 6
Foster Moreau
Saints
(14:22) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chiefs closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 13.
Kansas City Chiefs 26–13. Biggest swing: Q4 14:22, Saints +8.7% win probability on one snap.
8.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Bryan CookChiefsQ1 12:04(12:04) 4-D.Carr pass deep right intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 6-B.Cook at KC 22. 6-B.Cook to KC 22 for no gain (22-R.Shaheed).
7.0pts
Rashid ShaheedSaintsQ2 8:43(8:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-M.Danna].
6.9pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.15 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 4 chunk plays, against Saints at 2 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Saints166 of 179 plays carry both curves
(14:22) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −8.7 for ChiefsExpected points −1.99 for ChiefsThe model had Saints 9 points higher than the market did.play 135
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 14:22KC +9% win prob(14:22) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:04NO +7% win prob(12:04) 4-D.Carr pass deep right intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 6-B.Cook at KC 22. 6-B.Cook to KC 22 for no gain (22-R.Shaheed).
2nd · 8:43KC +7% win prob(8:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-M.Danna].
4th · 13:35KC +7% win prob(13:35) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 9-J.Smith-Schuster pushed ob at NO 14 for 50 yards (24-J.Abram).
3rd · 10:18NO +5% win prob(10:18) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
2nd · 5:14NO +5% win prob(5:14) 42-C.Steele right end to NO 40 for -8 yards (1-A.Taylor). FUMBLES (1-A.Taylor), touched at NO 41, recovered by KC-1-X.Worthy at NO 46.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kareem Hunt's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 6:40 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:40Kareem Hunt·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd12:42Harrison Butker·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+30–10
4th3:07Harrison Butker·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+313–26
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryChiefs
Saints1–7Chiefs
220Total yards463
4.3Yards per play6.0
35%Success rate58%
40%Third-down rate46%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
2Explosive plays4
12First downs26
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — first downs.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Saints: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.15Chiefs: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Saints: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.17Chiefs: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Saints: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.12Chiefs: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 51 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 77 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Saints 2, Chiefs 7.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 5Against their seasonOver Expected
NO's pass rate over expected, +3.8 pts, is past their previous high of −8.6 pts in week 4 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
KC's play-action rate turned over: 11.8% in week 4 against 22.7% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Chiefs23.7%
inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteNO's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 3.8 pts, 8.8 points above their season mean of -5.1 pts and 1.3 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
67Landon YoungT · Every snap100%53 snaps
70Trevor PenningT · Every snap100%53 snaps
75Taliese FuagaT · Every snap100%53 snaps
12Chris OlaveWR · Full-time94%50 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Full-time89%47 snaps
22Rashid ShaheedWR · Full-time87%46 snaps
62Lucas PatrickG · Full-time83%44 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Full-time83%44 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonTE · Heavy rotation79%42 snaps
64Nick SaldiveriG · Heavy rotation72%38 snaps
87Foster MoreauTE · Heavy rotation53%28 snaps
61Connor McGovernC · Rotational45%24 snaps
84Mason TiptonWR · Rotational36%19 snaps
11Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR · Situational23%12 snaps
3Jake HaenerQB · Situational17%9 snaps
21Jamaal WilliamsRB · Situational15%8 snaps
46Adam PrenticeFB · Situational13%7 snaps
85Dallin HolkerTE · Situational9%5 snaps
16Bub MeansWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Cesar RuizCPayton TurnerDEKhristian BoydDTWillie Gay Jr.ILBPete WernerILBSpencer RattlerQBTaysom HillTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Oli UdohT
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
74Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%84 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%84 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%84 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%84 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%84 snaps
64Wanya MorrisT · Full-time95%80 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Heavy rotation77%65 snaps
84Justin WatsonWR · Heavy rotation70%59 snaps
1Xavier WorthyWR · Heavy rotation67%56 snaps
9JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation67%56 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass−13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:04) 4-D.Carr pass deep right intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 6-B.Cook at KC 22. 6-B.Cook to KC 22 for no gain (22-R.Shaheed).
Q1 12:04 · Saints · 1st & 10 at KC 39 · gained nothing · -4.33 EP · −12.6% win probability
164 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 82 yards from the KC 16 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
46%
Yards
680
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.2454%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.4385%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.1459%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.4747%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.3444%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.1483%
Chiefs1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Chiefs 39
Saints0Chiefs6
Saints0Chiefs7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Saints 5
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 35
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Chiefs 26
Punt5 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Saints 36
2nd quarter54 plays
Saints0Chiefs10
Field goal6 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Saints 8
Saints6Chiefs10
Saints7Chiefs10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Chiefs 43
Saints7Chiefs13
Field goal20 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Saints 16
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Saints 24
Saints7Chiefs16
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Saints 9
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
No good11 plays, from the Chiefs 29 to the Saints 33
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 41 to the Chiefs 45
The period ended11 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the Saints 2
The period ended9 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Chiefs 23
4th quarter46 plays
Saints13Chiefs16
Touchdown3 plays, from the Chiefs 9 to the Chiefs 6
Saints13Chiefs22
Saints13Chiefs23
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Saints 3
The period ended9 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Chiefs 41
Saints13Chiefs26
Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Saints 11
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 48
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -5.5
Closing total
43
Saints moneyline
+190
Chiefs moneyline
-230
Chiefs closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 43; the game landed 39 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 62°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the south-east; clear.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Saints 8 days · Chiefs 8 days
Coaches
Dennis Allen vs Andy Reid
3rd · 1:54
NO +4% win prob
(1:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 50-K.Saunders (29-P.Adebo) at NO -2. 50-K.Saunders to NO 35 for 37 yards (62-J.Thuney).
1st · 9:11KC +4% win prob(9:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to NO 34 for 21 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
