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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2024 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 5
It turned at Q4 1:05, 4th and 4, on Jason Myers — 41.0 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:05 · 4th and 4
Jason Myers
Giants
(1:05) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (19-I.Simmons), Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson, RECOVERED by NYG-88-B.Ford-Wheaton at NYG 40. 88-B.Ford-Wheaton for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
New York Giants 29–20. Biggest swing: Q4 1:05, Giants +41.0% win probability on one snap.
41.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Giants at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at -0.11 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Giants won this one — 7 of 16 on third down, against Seahawks at 3 of 11 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(1:05) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (19-I.Simmons), Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson, RECOVERED by NYG-88-B.Ford-Wheaton at NYG 40. 88-B.Ford-Wheaton for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Darius Slayton's 30-yard touchdown catch with 10:47 left in the 3rd put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Darius Slayton30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel JonesLead never changed again+717–10
Bryce Ford-Wheaton60-yd defence TD60-yard touchdownthe defence scored it · two-point no good+629–2010 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Giantscategory by categorySeahawks
Giants ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 70 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 58 at 88%. Red-zone trips: Giants 6, Seahawks 1.
Giants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's early-down pass rate, 84.4%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 5.2 points clear of the next team along.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
SEA's pass rate over expected, +11.7 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
NYG's play-action rate, 35.9%, is past their previous high of 25.6% in week 3 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
SEA's blitz rate sent, 41.0%, is past their previous high of 36.4% in week 4 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Giants2.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their -3.6 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 69 snaps
Seahawks11.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +10.1 vs their 1.7 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 93%
Tendencies room →Giants51.9%inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 57.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 52 early downs
Seahawks84.4%leaned — passed early · +23.0 vs their 61.4%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+1.86× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 51%
Tendencies room →Giants35.9%leaned — faked the run · +11.9 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Seahawks11.8%inside their normal wobble · −7.6 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 116%
Fourth Down room →Giants14.3%leaned — took the kick · −25.5 vs their 39.8%, and they swing ±22.4 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
Seahawks50.0%right on their number · +10.4 vs their 39.6%, and they swing ±29.8 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 61%
Tendencies room →Giants19.6%inside their normal wobble · −9.6 vs their 29.2%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Seahawks41.0%leaned — sent pressure · +14.4 vs their 26.6%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 36%
Tendencies room →Giants15.7%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Seahawks12.8%inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
SEA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 84.4%, 23.0 points above their season mean of 61.4% and 1.9 times their own 12.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
28/40, 284 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-4.1 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
23/34, 257 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
7.6 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected
Receiving · NYG
8/11 for 122 yds, 1 TD
35% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Darius Slayton banked 7.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius SlaytonWR · Alpha Receiver | 26.2 | +7.3 | 90% | 92% | 35% | 70% | 8/11, 122 yd, 1 TD |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 22.6 | +4.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/40, 284 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 72 yd |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 22.1 | −1.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/34, 257 yd, 2 TD · 11 car, 38 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.0 | +1.6 | 82% | 87% | 29% | 23% | 1 car, 4 yd · 6/9, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| Kenneth WalkerRB · Committee Back | 14.6 | +0.2 | 67% | 63% | 21% | 2% | 5 car, 19 yd · 7/8, 57 yd |
| Tyrone TracyRB · Committee Back | 14.0 | +2.4 | 63% | 49% | 6% | 0% | 18 car, 129 yd · 1/2, 1 yd |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.1 | +0.2 | 88% | 80% | 18% | 7% | 4/7, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler LockettWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.5 | +1.4 | 84% | 76% | 15% | 48% | 4/6, 75 yd |
| Theo JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.8 | +2.2 | 78% | 82% | 16% | 14% | 5/5, 48 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | −3.1 | 100% | 92% | 18% | 33% | 4/7, 55 yd |
| Eric GrayRB · Receiving Back | 6.4 | −11.9 | 36% | 46% | 13% | 0% | 4 car, 4 yd · 3/4, 50 yd |
| Bryce Ford-WheatonWR | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Zach CharbonnetRB · Receiving Back | 6.0 | −2.0 | 36% | 33% | 13% | 0% | 2 car, 11 yd · 3/5, 19 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +1.2 | 69% | 73% | 8% | 7% | 3/3, 24 yd |
| A.J. BarnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.6 | 26% | 20% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.1 | 14% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Jake BoboWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Brady RussellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:05) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (19-I.Simmons), Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson, RECOVERED by NYG-88-B.Ford-Wheaton at NYG 40. 88-B.Ford-Wheaton for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 1:05 · Seahawks · 4th & 4 at NYG 28 · gained nothing · -8.96 EP · −30.7% win probability
164 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 174 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 95 yards from the SEA 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Giants0
Seahawks6Giants0Seahawks7Giants6Seahawks7Giants7Seahawks7Giants10Seahawks7Giants10Seahawks10How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Giants16Seahawks10Giants17Seahawks10Giants17Seahawks13Giants20Seahawks13Giants23Seahawks13Giants23Seahawks19Giants23Seahawks20How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Giants29Seahawks20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Giants at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 23/34 | 257 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +7.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy | 18 | 129 | 7.2 | 0 | +4.1 |
| Daniel Jones | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Eric Gray | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | −13.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 8 | 11 | 122 | 1 | 35% | +9.2 |
| Eric Gray | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 13% | +3.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Nubin | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Belton | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Banks | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Dexter Lawrence |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 28/40 | 284 | 1 | 0 | 7 | −4.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_05_NYG_SEA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 49 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Theo Johnson | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 16% | +2.8 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 9 | 36 | 1 | 29% | −0.8 |
| Tyrone Tracy | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6% | −0.9 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Cordale Flott | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bobby Okereke | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rakeem Nunez-Roches | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Brian Burns | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jason Pinnock | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick McCloud | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 |
| 72 |
| 18.0 |
| 0 |
| +4.1 |
| Kenneth Walker | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 6 | 75 | 0 | 15% | +3.5 |
| Kenneth Walker | 7 | 8 | 57 | 0 | 21% | +3.9 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 18% | −4.2 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4 | 7 | 31 | 1 | 18% | +1.1 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 8% | +1.3 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 13% | −1.6 |
| A.J. Barner | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Baker | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrel Dodson | 3 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Brown | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derick Hall | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Witherspoon | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tariq Woolen | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Coby Bryant | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
