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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2024 · Tottenham Stadium
Final
JetsNew York17
BY 6final margin
VikingsMinnesota23
New York Jets 17 at Minnesota Vikings 23. Final.
Vikings -2.5 ✓U 42 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 5
Minnesota Vikings 23, Jets 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:49, 3rd and 10, on Stephon Gilmore — 22.3 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:49 · 3rd and 10
Stephon Gilmore
Vikings
(:49) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 18-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 2-S.Gilmore at MIN 9. 2-S.Gilmore to MIN 9 for no gain (18-M.Williams).
Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Minnesota Vikings 23–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:49, Vikings +22.3% win probability on one snap.
22.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetJetsQ1 3:22(3:22) 14-S.Darnold FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 43, RECOVERED by NYJ-56-Qi.Williams at NYJ 43. 56-Qi.Williams to MIN 42 for 15 yards (14-S.Darnold). ** Injury Update: MIN-14-S.Darnold has returned to the game.
14.5pts
A.VanVikingsQ1 2:30(2:30) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel at MIN 37. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Jets at 2 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Jets at 2 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — 2 giveaways, against Jets at 3 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — -0.36 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.55 expected points per carry.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Jets182 of 189 plays carry both curves
(:49) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 18-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 2-S.Gilmore at MIN 9. 2-S.Gilmore to MIN 9 for no gain (18-M.Williams).
Swing +22.3 for VikingsExpected points +2.81 for VikingsModel and market agree here.play 186
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:49NYJ +22% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 18-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 2-S.Gilmore at MIN 9. 2-S.Gilmore to MIN 9 for no gain (18-M.Williams).
1st · 2:30NYJ +21% win prob(2:30) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel at MIN 37. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:22NYJ +14% win prob(3:22) 14-S.Darnold FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 43, RECOVERED by NYJ-56-Qi.Williams at NYJ 43. 56-Qi.Williams to MIN 42 for 15 yards (14-S.Darnold). ** Injury Update: MIN-14-S.Darnold has returned to the game.
1st · 8:24NYJ +10% win prob(8:24) 14-S.Darnold sacked at NYJ 36 for -12 yards (99-W.McDonald).
4th · 4:10MIN +8% win prob(4:10) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 86-J.Mundt to NYJ 26 for 20 yards (22-T.Adams).
4th · 5:42MIN +7% win prob(5:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson to NYJ 44 for 25 yards (36-C.Clark).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Will Reichard's 54-yard field goal with 7:45 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:45Will Reichard·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaolaLead never changed again+30–3
4th3:11Will Reichard·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+317–23
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryVikings
Jets3–6Vikings
254Total yards255
3.6Yards per play4.0
35%Success rate36%
29%Third-down rate31%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
2Explosive plays7
15First downs12
3Sacks taken4
3Turnovers2
The read
Vikings ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.34Jets: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.28Vikings: −0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.28Jets: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.22Vikings: −0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.55Jets: −0.55 expected points added per play
−0.36Vikings: −0.36 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 71 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Vikings’s 64 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Vikings 1.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's play-action rate, 43.2%, is past their previous high of 31.3% in week 3 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 4.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Vikings19.3%
right on their number · +3.0 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 79.2%, 19.3 points above their season mean of 59.9% and 2.7 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass−22% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:30) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel at MIN 37. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 2:30 · Jets · 3rd & 6 at MIN 38 · gained nothing · -8.99 EP · −21.8% win probability
180 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 184. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 83 yards from the NYJ 3 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
43%
Yards
507
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.2392%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.3160%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.6147%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.5850%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.1350%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Jets 35
Jets0Vikings3
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Jets 24
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jets 34
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Jets 36
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
Jets0Vikings9
Touchdown3 plays, from the Vikings 42 to the Vikings 38
Jets0Vikings10
Intercepted4 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jets 32
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 43 to the Jets 45
2nd quarter52 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Jets 33
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Vikings 26
Jets0Vikings16
Jets0Vikings17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Jets 2
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jets 47
The period ended7 plays, from the Vikings 5 to the Vikings 9
Jets6Vikings17
Jets7Vikings17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 31 to the Vikings 14
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 32
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Jets 45
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Jets 46
Jets10Vikings17
Field goal18 plays, from the Jets 3 to the Vikings 14
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Jets 46
4th quarter57 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 7 to the Jets 10
Jets10Vikings20
Field goal4 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Jets 35
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jets 37
Intercepted4 plays
Jets16Vikings20
Jets17Vikings20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 42 to the Vikings 1
Jets17Vikings23
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Jets 23
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Vikings 26
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
