2024 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 6, 2024 · Tottenham Stadium

New York Jets

Minnesota VikingsWinner

MIN -2.5 ✓U 42 ✓Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Minnesota Vikings 23–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:49, NYJ +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:49NYJ 17 — MIN 23NYJ ball · 3rd & 10MIN 77%

(:49) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 18-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 2-S.Gilmore at MIN 9. 2-S.Gilmore to MIN 9 for no gain (18-M.Williams).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:49NYJ +22% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 18-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 2-S.Gilmore at MIN 9. 2-S.Gilmore to MIN 9 for no gain (18-M.Williams).
Q1 · 2:30NYJ +21% win prob(2:30) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel at MIN 37. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 3:22NYJ +14% win prob(3:22) 14-S.Darnold FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 43, RECOVERED by NYJ-56-Qi.Williams at NYJ 43. 56-Qi.Williams to MIN 42 for 15 yards (14-S.Darnold). ** Injury Update: MIN-14-S.Darnold has returned to the game.
Q1 · 8:24NYJ +10% win prob(8:24) 14-S.Darnold sacked at NYJ 36 for -12 yards (99-W.McDonald).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:45MIN Field goal
(7:45) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — MIN 3
Q1 · 2:30MIN Touchdown
(2:30) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel at MIN 37. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — MIN 10
Q2 · 4:01MIN Touchdown
(4:01) 30-C.Ham left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — MIN 17
Q2 · 0:42NYJ Touchdown
(:42) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 10-A.Lazard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [43-A.Van Ginkel]. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 7 — MIN 17
Q3 · 0:53NYJ Field goal
(:53) 9-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. ** Injury Update: MIN-0-I.Pace has returned to the game.
Score after this play: NYJ 10 — MIN 17
Q4 · 12:12MIN Field goal
(12:12) 16-W.Reichard 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: NYJ 10 — MIN 20
Q4 · 6:10NYJ Touchdown
(6:10) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 5-G.Wilson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 17 — MIN 20
Q4 · 3:11MIN Field goal
(3:11) 16-W.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: NYJ 17 — MIN 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Vikings
Offensive plays	71	64
Total yards	254	255 (edge)
Yards per play	3.6	4.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.34	-0.28 (edge)
Success rate	35%	36% (edge)
Dropback rate	80%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28	-0.22 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.55	-0.36 (edge)
Third downs	5/17	4/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Aaron RodgersQB

29/54, 244 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

-16.2 expected points added · -7.9% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Sam DarnoldQB

14/31, 179 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-12.0 expected points added · -9.0% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Ty ChandlerRB

14 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-4.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Aaron JonesRB

7 att, 29 yds, 0 TD

0.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Garrett WilsonWR

13/22 for 101 yds, 1 TD

43% of team targets · -7.4 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

6/14 for 92 yds, 0 TD

50% of team targets · 0.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 26	5	9	1:33	Punt
2	MIN	MIN 12	11	53	5:46	Field goal +3
3	NYJ	NYJ 30	5	4	1:27	Punt
4	MIN	MIN 22	6	42	3:00	Fumble
5	NYJ	MIN 42	3	4	0:56	Defensive touchdown
6	NYJ	NYJ 30	4	2	0:54	Interception
7	MIN	MIN 43	9	13	4:09	Turnover on downs
8	NYJ	NYJ 34	7	40	3:29	Turnover on downs
9	MIN	MIN 26	9	53	4:48	Touchdown +7
10	NYJ	NYJ 30	6	9	2:08	Punt
11	MIN	MIN 5	4	3	0:28	Punt
12	NYJ	MIN 31	6	31	0:46	Touchdown +7
13	MIN	MIN 30	3	-9	0:36	End of half
14	MIN	MIN 30	5	2	1:39	Punt
15	NYJ	NYJ 40	4	5	2:11	Punt
16	MIN	MIN 20	6	39	3:29	Punt
17	NYJ	NYJ 3	17	68	6:51	Field goal +3
18	MIN	MIN 30	6	0	1:09	Punt
19	NYJ	NYJ 7	4	-3	1:38	Punt
20	MIN	NYJ 37	4	2	0:56	Field goal +3
21	NYJ	NYJ 30	5	-5	1:24	Punt
22	MIN	MIN 17	3	0	0:56	Interception
23	NYJ	MIN 42	9	46	3:43	Touchdown +7
24	MIN	MIN 30	10	57	2:57	Field goal +3
25	NYJ	NYJ 30	11	44	2:23	Interception
26	MIN	MIN 9	2	0	0:44	End of game

7 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 68 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	29/54	244	2	3	3	-16.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Breece Hall	9	23	2.6	0	-2.9
Braelon Allen	5	13	2.6	0	-4.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Garrett Wilson	13	22	101	1	43%	-7.4
Tyler Conklin	6	9	55	0	18%	0.6
Allen Lazard	4	10	34	1	20%	-0.7
Mike Williams	2	4	25	0	8%	-0.9
Braelon Allen	1	2	15	0	4%	0.7
Breece Hall	3	4	14	0	8%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jamien Sherwood	5	5	0.0	0
Quincy Williams	5	1	0.0	0
Tony Adams	4	2	0.0	1
Isaiah Oliver	5	1	1.0	0
Chuck Clark	3	2	0.0	1
D.J. Reed	2	2	0.0	2
Javon Kinlaw	1	2	0.0	0
Ahmad Gardner	1	1	0.0	1
Micheal Clemons	2	0	1.0	0
Allen Lazard	1	0	0.0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	14/31	179	0	1	4	-12.0
Nick Mullens	1/1	24	0	0	0	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ty Chandler	14	30	2.1	0	-4.2
Aaron Jones	7	29	4.1	0	0.0
Sam Darnold	5	11	2.2	0	-4.5
C.J. Ham	2	10	5.0	1	1.5
Myles Gaskin	2	2	1.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	6	14	92	50%	0.7
Jordan Addison	3	8	36	29%	-4.9
Johnny Mundt	2	2	31	7%	3.3
Aaron Jones	1	1	24	4%	2.6
Myles Gaskin	1	1	11	4%	0.9
Ty Chandler	2	2	9	7%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Camryn Bynum	4	2	0.0	1	2
Stephon Gilmore	5	1	0.0	1	2
Harrison Smith	5	1	1.0	0	0
Blake Cashman	2	3	0.0	0	1
Ivan Pace	4	1	1.0	0	0
Byron Murphy	3	1	0.0	0	1
Josh Metellus	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Greenard	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jerry Tillery	1	1	0.0	0	0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -2.5
Closing total: 42
NYJ moneyline: +120
MIN moneyline: -142

Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 42; the game landed 40 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Tottenham Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 59°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: NYJ 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Robert Saleh vs Kevin O'Connell