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2024 Week 5 · Thu, Oct 3, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

30

Atlanta FalconsWinner

36

ATL -2.5 ✓O 44 ✓Dome

Atlanta Falcons 36–30. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, ATL +36% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4ATL ↑TB ↓
Q4 · 0:01TB 30 — ATL 30ATL ball · 2nd & 15TB 76%

(:01) 6-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:01ATL +36% win prob(:01) 6-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
  2. OT · 8:54ATL +25% win prob(8:54) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 12-K.Hodge for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 6:37TB +21% win prob(6:37) 6-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (37-T.Thomas), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
  4. OT · 9:14ATL +20% win prob(9:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London to TB 45 for 18 yards (29-C.Izien, 27-Z.McCollum). ATL-5-D.London was injured during the play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:01ATL Touchdown

    (12:01) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 5-D.London for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 0 — ATL 7
  2. Q1 · 7:40TB Touchdown

    (7:40) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 13-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 7 — ATL 7
  3. Q1 · 1:27TB Field goal

    (1:27) 4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: TB 10 — ATL 7
  4. Q2 · 12:04ATL Touchdown

    (12:04) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-D.Mooney for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 10 — ATL 14
  5. Q2 · 10:22TB Touchdown

    (10:22) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 17 — ATL 14
  6. Q2 · 6:22ATL Field goal

    (6:22) 6-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: TB 17 — ATL 17
  7. Q2 · 2:00TB Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 17-S.Shepard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 24 — ATL 17
  8. Q3 · 6:26ATL Field goal

    (6:26) 6-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: TB 24 — ATL 20
  9. Q3 · 1:20TB Field goal

    (1:20) 4-C.McLaughlin 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: TB 27 — ATL 20
  10. Q4 · 13:25ATL Touchdown

    (13:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-D.Mooney for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 27 — ATL 27
  11. Q4 · 10:28TB Field goal

    (10:28) 4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: TB 30 — ATL 27
  12. Q4 · 0:01ATL Field goal

    (:01) 6-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: TB 30 — ATL 30
  13. OT · 8:54ATL Touchdown

    (8:54) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 12-K.Hodge for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: TB 30 — ATL 36

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBuccaneersFalcons
Offensive plays5079
Total yards334550 (edge)
Yards per play6.77.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.170.23 (edge)
Success rate50% (edge)47%
Dropback rate60%77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.37 (edge)0.36
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.12 (edge)-0.19
Third downs6/11 (edge)6/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)78 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2026 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)4
Turnovers11

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Kirk CousinsQB

42/58, 509 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

21.9 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

19/24, 180 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

9.4 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

10 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

12 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

12/13 for 154 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 12.7 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Darnell MooneyWR

9/16 for 105 yds, 2 TD

30% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ATLATL 309703:06Touchdown +7
2TBTB 3711634:18Touchdown +7
3ATLATL 309424:06Missed field goal
4TBTB 316342:08Field goal +3
5ATLATL 3011754:24Touchdown +7
6TBATL 445441:41Touchdown +7
7ATLATL 309444:00Field goal +3
8TBTB 189824:21Touchdown +7
9ATLATL 3011311:44Punt
10TBTB 4100:12End of half
11TBTB 37582:50Punt
12ATLATL 2012655:49Field goal +3
13TBTB 3010415:04Field goal +3
14ATLATL 3010702:59Touchdown +7
15TBTB 307352:55Field goal +3
16ATLATL 309373:54Missed field goal
17TBTB 447313:39Fumble
18ATLATL 254-51:06Interception
19TBATL 284-40:30Punt
20ATLATL 209511:14Field goal +3
21ATLATL 305701:15Touchdown +6

13 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 82 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield19/241803019.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rachaad White10727.201.3
Bucky Irving9444.90-5.2
Baker Mayfield6427.001.6
Chris Godwin122.001.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chris Godwin5664025%2.9
Mike Evans5762229%6.1
Cade Otton3444017%2.9
Bucky Irving221208%0.5
Sterling Shepard12418%1.9
Rachaad White33-6013%-3.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tykee Smith820.001
Jamel Dean900.001
Zyon McCollum630.002
K.J. Britt440.000
Lavonte David520.012
Christian Izien320.000
Jordan Whitehead410.001
YaYa Diaby310.000
Joe Tryon110.001
Logan Hall202.000

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins42/5850941421.9
Darnell Mooney0/10000-0.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson12615.10-0.6
Tyler Allgeier6122.00-2.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Drake London1213154124%12.7
Darnell Mooney916105230%5.8
Kyle Pitts7888015%4.6
KhaDarel Hodge226714%6.3
Ray-Ray McCloud6966017%1.9
Bijan Robinson331606%-0.3
Tyler Allgeier331306%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jessie Bates350.000
Kaden Elliss330.000
Grady Jarrett320.000
A.J. Terrell310.000
James Smith-Williams130.000
J.D. Bertrand310.000
Lorenzo Carter110.000
Mike Hughes200.000
Richie Grant200.000
Dee Alford110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Closing total
44
TB moneyline
+120
ATL moneyline
-142

Falcons closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 44; the game landed 66 — over by 22.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
TB 4 days · ATL 4 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Raheem Morris

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.