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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Buccaneers176 of 187 plays carry both curves
(:01) 6-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Swing +36.4 for FalconsExpected points +0.93 for FalconsThe model had Falcons 3 points higher than the market did.play 179
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:01ATL +36% win prob(:01) 6-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Overtime · 8:54ATL +25% win prob(8:54) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 12-K.Hodge for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:37TB +21% win prob(6:37) 6-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (37-T.Thomas), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Overtime · 9:14ATL +20% win prob(9:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London to TB 45 for 18 yards (29-C.Izien, 27-Z.McCollum). ATL-5-D.London was injured during the play.
4th · 2:55TB +19% win prob(2:55) 7-B.Irving left tackle to ATL 25 for 7 yards (3-J.Bates). FUMBLES (3-J.Bates), RECOVERED by ATL-55-K.Elliss at ATL 25.
4th · 13:25ATL +16% win prob(13:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-D.Mooney for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
KhaDarel Hodge's 45-yard touchdown catch with 8:54 left in overtime put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Falcons ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Buccaneers: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.23Falcons: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.37Buccaneers: +0.37 expected points added per play
+0.36Falcons: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Buccaneers: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.19Falcons: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 50 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Falcons’s 79 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Falcons 4.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's sack or hit rate, 3.3%, is past their previous low of 7.9% in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +2.6 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 61 dropbacks
Falcons3.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteATL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 72.6%, 23.5 points above their season mean of 49.1% and 2.1 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Younghoe Koo+33% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:01) 6-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q4 0:01 · Falcons · 2nd & 15 at TB 34 · gained nothing · +0.93 EP · +33.3% win probability
174 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 181. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 82 yards from the TB 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
50%
Yards
883
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR78+0.2378%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1851%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1740%
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Buccaneers0Falcons6
Buccaneers0Falcons7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Buccaneers 18
Buccaneers6Falcons7
Buccaneers7Falcons7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Falcons 2
No good10 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Buccaneers 19
Buccaneers10Falcons7
Field goal6 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Falcons 35
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 37
2nd quarter47 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Buccaneers10Falcons13
Buccaneers10Falcons14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 44 to the Buccaneers 21
Buccaneers16Falcons14
Buccaneers17Falcons14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 44 to the Falcons 22
Buccaneers17Falcons17
Field goal9 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Buccaneers 36
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Buccaneers23Falcons17
Buccaneers24Falcons17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 18 to the Falcons 2
Punt12 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Buccaneers 31
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Buccaneers 39
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Buccaneers24Falcons20
Field goal14 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Buccaneers 18
Buccaneers27Falcons20
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Falcons 7
The period ended6 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Buccaneers 46
4th quarter56 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Buccaneers27Falcons26
Buccaneers27Falcons27
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 18 to the Buccaneers 10
Buccaneers30Falcons27
Field goal8 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Falcons 35
No good11 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Buccaneers 36
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Buccaneers 44 to the Falcons 32
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted4 plays
The period ended8 plays
Buccaneers30Falcons30
Field goal12 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Buccaneers 29
Overtime6 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Buccaneers30Falcons36
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Buccaneers 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
