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2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium

Atlanta FalconsWinner

38

Carolina Panthers

20

ATL -6 ✓O 45.5 ✓

Atlanta Falcons 38–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 6:53, CAR +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CAR ↑ATL ↓
Q2 · 6:53ATL 7 — CAR 10ATL ball · 2nd & 6ATL 65%

(6:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts to CAR 7 for 52 yards (21-N.Scott).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 6:53CAR +10% win prob(6:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts to CAR 7 for 52 yards (21-N.Scott).
  2. Q4 · 10:53ATL +8% win prob(10:53) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Terrell at ATL 15. 24-A.Terrell ran ob at ATL 16 for 1 yard.
  3. Q2 · 12:17ATL +7% win prob(12:17) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 34-R.McCloud to ATL 42 for 8 yards (2-M.Jackson). Carolina challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 34-R.McCloud to ATL 43 for 9 yards (2-M.Jackson, 56-T.Wallace). FUMBLES (56-T.Wallace), touched at ATL 43, RECOVERED by CAR-56-T.Wallace at ATL 41.
  4. Q1 · 10:26CAR +6% win prob(10:26) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 5-Di.Johnson ran ob at ATL 40 for 17 yards [98-R.Orhorhoro].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:00CAR Touchdown

    (6:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 5-Di.Johnson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 0 — CAR 7
  2. Q1 · 0:43ATL Touchdown

    (:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — CAR 7
  3. Q2 · 8:51CAR Field goal

    (8:51) 4-E.Pineiro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — CAR 10
  4. Q2 · 6:10ATL Touchdown

    (6:10) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-26-C.Smith-Wade, Low Block, 1 yard, enforced between downs. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: ATL 15 — CAR 10
  5. Q2 · 1:46ATL Touchdown

    (1:46) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 22 — CAR 10
  6. Q2 · 0:12CAR Touchdown

    (:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 17-X.Legette for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 22 — CAR 17
  7. Q3 · 10:07ATL Field goal

    (10:07) 6-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 25 — CAR 17
  8. Q3 · 4:55CAR Field goal

    (4:55) 4-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: ATL 25 — CAR 20
  9. Q3 · 0:10ATL Field goal

    (:10) 6-Y.Koo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 28 — CAR 20
  10. Q4 · 5:45ATL Touchdown

    (5:45) 25-T.Allgeier up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-93-L.Ray was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 35 — CAR 20
  11. Q4 · 2:15ATL Field goal

    (2:15) 6-Y.Koo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 38 — CAR 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricFalconsPanthers
Offensive plays6562
Total yards430 (edge)335
Yards per play6.6 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play0.28 (edge)-0.10
Success rate52% (edge)40%
Dropback rate46%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.23 (edge)-0.12
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.32 (edge)-0.07
Third downs7/11 (edge)5/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps26 (edge)20
Sacks taken00
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Kirk CousinsQB

19/30, 225 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

12.3 expected points added · +0.9% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Andy DaltonQB

26/38, 221 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-4.9 expected points added · +2.4% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

18 att, 105 yds, 1 TD

4.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

15 att, 95 yds, 2 TD

6.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Diontae JohnsonWR

6/10 for 78 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · -1.9 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

6/10 for 74 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CARCAR 35521:46Punt
2ATLATL 21460:45Punt
3CARCAR 3313726:33Touchdown +7
4ATLATL 3014565:18Touchdown +7
5CARCAR 34551:33Punt
6ATLATL 176261:56Fumble
7CARATL 418363:21Field goal +3
8ATLATL 247782:45Touchdown +8
9CARCAR 306-33:04Punt
10ATLCAR 276271:17Touchdown +7
11CARCAR 2410801:35Touchdown +7
12ATLATL 30200:07End of half
13ATLATL 3012674:56Field goal +3
14CARCAR 3012585:13Field goal +3
15ATLATL 3011674:44Field goal +3
16CARCAR 129564:20Interception
17ATLATL 1610845:09Touchdown +7
18CARCAR 315161:29Turnover on downs
19ATLCAR 366191:58Field goal +3
20CARCAR 304130:26Interception
21ATLCAR 6301:45End of game

11 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 84 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins19/3022510012.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tyler Allgeier181055.814.7
Bijan Robinson15956.326.8
Ray-Ray McCloud133.00-0.3
Kirk Cousins4-5-1.30-4.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Drake London61074134%3.3
Kyle Pitts3570017%3.6
Darnell Mooney3538017%3.1
Ray-Ray McCloud3430014%-0.3
Bijan Robinson3410014%-1.9
Tyler Allgeier11303%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nate Landman440.000
Mike Hughes610.000
Jessie Bates420.000
Justin Simmons230.000
Kaden Elliss310.001
Dee Alford310.001
Lorenzo Carter210.000
A.J. Terrell210.011
Grady Jarrett300.000
Clark Phillips210.011

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Andy Dalton26/38221220-4.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard18925.100.1
Andy Dalton3217.00-0.1
Miles Sanders310.30-1.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Diontae Johnson61078127%-1.9
Ja'Tavion Sanders5749019%-0.8
Jalen Coker333008%1.7
Xavier Legette3423111%2.7
David Moore221705%0.9
Miles Sanders111203%1.5
Chuba Hubbard5611016%-2.2
Jonathan Mingo11103%-0.5
Ian Thomas03008%-5.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Troy Hill810.000
Xavier Woods720.001
Trevin Wallace530.000
D.J. Johnson140.001
Nick Scott410.000
Claudin Cherelus220.000
Michael Jackson210.001
Jaycee Horn210.002
Shy Tuttle200.001
Feleipe Franks110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ATL -6
Closing total
45.5
ATL moneyline
-258
CAR moneyline
+210

Falcons closed -6 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 58 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
79°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
ATL 10 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Dave Canales

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.