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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta38
BY 18final margin
PanthersCarolina20
Atlanta Falcons 38 at Carolina Panthers 20. Final.
Falcons -6 ✓O 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 6
Atlanta Falcons 38, Panthers 20 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 6:53, 2nd and 6, on Kyle Pitts — 9.5 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 6:53 · 2nd and 6
Kyle Pitts
Falcons
(6:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts to CAR 7 for 52 yards (21-N.Scott).
Falcons closed -6 and covered, winning by 18.
Atlanta Falcons 38–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 6:53, Falcons +9.5% win probability on one snap.
9.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ray-Ray McCloudPanthersQ2 12:17(12:17) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 34-R.McCloud to ATL 42 for 8 yards (2-M.Jackson). Carolina challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 34-R.McCloud to ATL 43 for 9 yards (2-M.Jackson, 56-T.Wallace). FUMBLES (56-T.Wallace), touched at ATL 43, RECOVERED by CAR-56-T.Wallace at ATL 41.
7.4pts
A.J. TerrellFalconsQ4 10:53(10:53) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Terrell at ATL 15. 24-A.Terrell ran ob at ATL 16 for 1 yard.
8.0pts
What separated them
Every snap
Falcons won this one — +0.28 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.32 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.07 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Falcons won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Falcons won this one — 7 of 11 on third down, against Panthers at 5 of 11 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Falcons168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(6:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts to CAR 7 for 52 yards (21-N.Scott).
Swing −9.5 for PanthersExpected points −3.62 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 22 points higher than the market did.play 67
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 6:53CAR +10% win prob(6:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts to CAR 7 for 52 yards (21-N.Scott).
4th · 10:53ATL +8% win prob(10:53) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Terrell at ATL 15. 24-A.Terrell ran ob at ATL 16 for 1 yard.
2nd · 12:17ATL +7% win prob(12:17) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 34-R.McCloud to ATL 42 for 8 yards (2-M.Jackson). Carolina challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 34-R.McCloud to ATL 43 for 9 yards (2-M.Jackson, 56-T.Wallace). FUMBLES (56-T.Wallace), touched at ATL 43, RECOVERED by CAR-56-T.Wallace at ATL 41.
1st · 10:26CAR +6% win prob(10:26) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 5-Di.Johnson ran ob at ATL 40 for 17 yards [98-R.Orhorhoro].
1st · 6:00CAR +6% win prob(6:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 5-Di.Johnson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 7:21CAR +6% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Bijan Robinson's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 6:10 left in the 2nd put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:00Diontae Johnson·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+70–7
4th2:15Younghoe Koo·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+338–20
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryPanthers
Falcons8–0Panthers
430Total yards335
6.6Yards per play5.4
52%Success rate40%
64%Third-down rate45%
4Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays5
26First downs20
0Sacks taken0
1Turnovers2
The read
Falcons ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.28Falcons: +0.28 expected points added per play
−0.10Panthers: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Falcons: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.12Panthers: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.32Falcons: +0.32 expected points added per play
−0.07Panthers: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 65 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Panthers’s 62 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 8, Panthers 4.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's play-action rate turned over: 4.9% in week 5 against 20.0% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
ATL's early-down pass rate turned over: 72.6% in week 5 against 41.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Panthers10.0%
right on their number · −0.0 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteATL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 10.0%, 17.0 points below their season mean of 27.0% and 1.4 times their own 12.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass+13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts to CAR 7 for 52 yards (21-N.Scott).
Q2 6:53 · Falcons · 2nd & 6 at ATL 41 · gained 52 · +3.62 EP · +12.9% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 84 yards from the ATL 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
47%
Yards
760
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59+0.3251%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.0863%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.120%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Panthers 39
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Falcons 27
Falcons0Panthers6
Falcons0Panthers7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Panthers 33 to the Falcons 10
Falcons6Panthers7
Falcons7Panthers7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Panthers 5
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter55 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Panthers 36 to the Panthers 39
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Falcons 34
Falcons7Panthers10
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 41 to the Falcons 5
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Falcons13Panthers10
Falcons15Panthers10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 24 to the Panthers 7
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 40
Falcons21Panthers10
Falcons22Panthers10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Panthers 3
Falcons22Panthers16
Falcons22Panthers17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Falcons 7
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Falcons25Panthers17
Field goal12 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Panthers 3
Falcons25Panthers20
Field goal12 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Falcons 20
Falcons28Panthers20
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Panthers 12
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter41 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Falcons 32
Falcons34Panthers20
Falcons35Panthers20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 16 to the Panthers 2
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Panthers 37
Falcons38Panthers20
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 36 to the Panthers 17
Intercepted4 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 43
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -6
Closing total
45.5
Falcons moneyline
-258
Panthers moneyline
+210
Falcons closed -6 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 58 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 79°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 10 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Falcons 10 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Dave Canales
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(7:21) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 5-Di.Johnson to ATL 20 for 14 yards (55-K.Elliss).
2nd · 0:12CAR +5% win prob(:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 17-X.Legette for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:10ATL +5% win prob(3:10) 10-J.Hekker punts 15 yards to ATL 48, Center-44-J.Jansen. 22-C.Phillips to CAR 37 for 15 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade, 84-F.Franks). PENALTY on CAR-44-J.Jansen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 37.
