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2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium
38
20
Atlanta Falcons 38–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 6:53, CAR +10% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(6:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts to CAR 7 for 52 yards (21-N.Scott).
How the points landed
(6:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 5-Di.Johnson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 0 — CAR 7(:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 7 — CAR 7(8:51) 4-E.Pineiro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: ATL 7 — CAR 10(6:10) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-26-C.Smith-Wade, Low Block, 1 yard, enforced between downs. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: ATL 15 — CAR 10(1:46) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 22 — CAR 10(:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 17-X.Legette for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 22 — CAR 17(10:07) 6-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 25 — CAR 17(4:55) 4-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: ATL 25 — CAR 20(:10) 6-Y.Koo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 28 — CAR 20(5:45) 25-T.Allgeier up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-93-L.Ray was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 35 — CAR 20(2:15) 6-Y.Koo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 38 — CAR 20Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Falcons | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 65 | 62 |
| Total yards | 430 (edge) | 335 |
| Yards per play | 6.6 (edge) | 5.4 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.28 (edge) | -0.10 |
| Success rate | 52% (edge) | 40% |
| Dropback rate | 46% | 65% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.23 (edge) | -0.12 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.32 (edge) | -0.07 |
| Third downs | 7/11 (edge) | 5/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 (edge) | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 26 (edge) | 20 |
| Sacks taken | 0 | 0 |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 2 |
Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Who moved the needle
Passing · ATL
19/30, 225 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
12.3 expected points added · +0.9% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
26/38, 221 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-4.9 expected points added · +2.4% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
6/10 for 78 yds, 1 TD
27% of team targets · -1.9 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | CAR 35 | 5 | 2 | 1:46 | Punt | |
| 2 | ATL | ATL 21 | 4 | 6 | 0:45 | Punt | |
| 3 | CAR | CAR 33 | 13 | 72 | 6:33 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 4 | ATL | ATL 30 | 14 | 56 | 5:18 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | CAR | CAR 34 | 5 | 5 | 1:33 | Punt | |
| 6 | ATL | ATL 17 | 6 | 26 | 1:56 | Fumble | |
| 7 | CAR | ATL 41 | 8 | 36 | 3:21 | Field goal +3 | |
| 8 | ATL | ATL 24 | 7 | 78 | 2:45 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 9 | CAR | CAR 30 | 6 | -3 | 3:04 | Punt | |
| 10 | ATL | CAR 27 | 6 | 27 | 1:17 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 11 | CAR | CAR 24 | 10 | 80 | 1:35 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 12 | ATL | ATL 30 | 2 | 0 | 0:07 | End of half | |
| 13 | ATL | ATL 30 | 12 | 67 | 4:56 | Field goal +3 | |
| 14 | CAR | CAR 30 | 12 | 58 | 5:13 | Field goal +3 | |
| 15 | ATL | ATL 30 | 11 | 67 | 4:44 | Field goal +3 | |
| 16 | CAR | CAR 12 | 9 | 56 | 4:20 | Interception | |
| 17 | ATL | ATL 16 | 10 | 84 | 5:09 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | CAR | CAR 31 | 5 | 16 | 1:29 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | ATL | CAR 36 | 6 | 19 | 1:58 | Field goal +3 | |
| 20 | CAR | CAR 30 | 4 | 13 | 0:26 | Interception | |
| 21 | ATL | CAR 6 | 3 | 0 | 1:45 | End of game |
11 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 84 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 19/30 | 225 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 18 | 105 | 5.8 | 1 | 4.7 |
| Bijan Robinson | 15 | 95 | 6.3 | 2 | 6.8 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 0 | -4.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 6 | 10 | 74 | 1 | 34% | 3.3 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 5 | 70 | 0 | 17% | 3.6 |
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landman | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hughes | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 26/38 | 221 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -4.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 18 | 92 | 5.1 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Falcons closed -6 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 58 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3.1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 14% | -0.3 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 14% | -1.9 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | -0.1 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kaden Elliss | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dee Alford | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lorenzo Carter | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Grady Jarrett | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clark Phillips | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| 0.1 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 6 | 10 | 78 | 1 | 27% | -1.9 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 | 19% | -0.8 |
| Jalen Coker | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 8% | 1.7 |
| Xavier Legette | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 11% | 2.7 |
| David Moore | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 5% | 0.9 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | 1.5 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 5 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 16% | -2.2 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Ian Thomas | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8% | -5.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hill | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trevin Wallace | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Johnson | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Scott | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Claudin Cherelus | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Jackson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaycee Horn | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Shy Tuttle | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Feleipe Franks | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
