2024 Week 6 · Mon, Oct 14, 2024 · MetLife Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

New York Jets

BUF -1 ✓O 42 ✓Bills closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.

Buffalo Bills 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:08, NYJ +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:08BUF 20 — NYJ 16NYJ ball · 1st & 10BUF 88%

(:08) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 10-A.Lazard for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:08NYJ +19% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 10-A.Lazard for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 7:51NYJ +18% win prob(7:51) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall left end pushed ob at BUF 3 for 42 yards (9-T.Rapp).
Q4 · 12:04NYJ +15% win prob(12:04) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 10-A.Lazard to BUF 27 for 25 yards (3-D.Hamlin) [90-D.Carter].
Q4 · 9:47BUF +12% win prob(9:47) 9-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:09NYJ Field goal
(11:09) 9-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: BUF 0 — NYJ 3
Q1 · 6:16BUF Touchdown
(6:16) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — NYJ 3
Q1 · 2:06NYJ Touchdown
(2:06) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — NYJ 10
Q2 · 6:58BUF Touchdown
(6:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 13-M.Hollins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BUF 13 — NYJ 10
Q2 · 0:27BUF Touchdown
(:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 20 — NYJ 10
Q2 · 0:08NYJ Touchdown
(:08) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 10-A.Lazard for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 20 — NYJ 17
Q3 · 6:17NYJ Field goal
(6:17) 9-G.Zuerlein 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: BUF 20 — NYJ 20
Q4 · 3:46BUF Field goal
(3:46) 2-T.Bass 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. PENALTY on NYJ-54-J.Kinlaw, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Score after this play: BUF 23 — NYJ 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Jets
Offensive plays	57	59
Total yards	362	393 (edge)
Yards per play	6.4	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.28 (edge)	0.19
Success rate	54% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	53%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.33 (edge)	0.29
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	-0.00
Third downs	5/10 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Jets outgained Bills 393–362 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Aaron RodgersQB

23/35, 294 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

11.2 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

19/25, 215 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.8 expected points added · +18.9% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

18 att, 113 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Ray DavisRB

20 att, 97 yds, 0 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Allen LazardWR

6/7 for 114 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Garrett WilsonWR

8/10 for 107 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 30	9	54	3:54	Field goal +3
2	BUF	BUF 30	11	75	4:54	Touchdown +7
3	NYJ	NYJ 30	11	70	4:11	Touchdown +7
4	BUF	BUF 30	5	8	1:36	Punt
5	NYJ	NYJ 20	7	15	3:19	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 10	11	85	5:12	Touchdown +6
7	NYJ	NYJ 38	7	16	4:05	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 20	11	49	2:28	Touchdown +7
9	NYJ	NYJ 30	5	70	0:21	Touchdown +7
10	BUF	BUF 23	8	58	3:54	Missed field goal
11	NYJ	NYJ 37	10	45	4:53	Field goal +3
12	BUF	BUF 30	5	9	1:48	Punt
13	NYJ	NYJ 26	7	57	3:30	Missed field goal
14	BUF	BUF 22	4	16	1:49	Punt
15	NYJ	NYJ 34	9	56	4:22	Missed field goal
16	BUF	BUF 33	11	50	6:01	Field goal +3
17	NYJ	NYJ 30	7	10	1:51	Interception
18	BUF	BUF 18	6	12	1:52	End of game

8 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	19/25	215	2	0	2	10.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ray Davis	20	97	4.8	0	3.2
Ty Johnson	4	34	8.5	0	1.9
Josh Allen	9	18	2.0	1	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ray Davis	3	3	55	0	13%	3.5
Dalton Kincaid	6	7	51	0	30%	1.6
Curtis Samuel	3	4	44	0	17%	0.8
Keon Coleman	3	4	26	0	17%	1.0
Khalil Shakir	2	2	19	0	9%	1.6
Dawson Knox	1	1	12	1	4%	3.8
Mack Hollins	1	2	8	1	9%	2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Taron Johnson	4	4	0.0	1	1
Taylor Rapp	4	3	0.0	0	3
Damar Hamlin	5	1	0.0	0	1
Terrel Bernard	2	3	0.0	0	0
Rasul Douglas	4	1	0.0	0	1
A.J. Epenesa	3	1	2.0	0	0
Christian Benford	3	1	0.0	0	1
Dorian Williams	1	2	0.0	0	0
Austin Johnson	1	2	0.0	0	0
Gregory Rousseau	1	1	0.0	0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	23/35	294	2	1	3	11.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Breece Hall	18	113	6.3	0	0.2
Braelon Allen	3	8	2.7	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Lazard	6	7	114	1	21%	10.9
Garrett Wilson	8	10	107	1	29%	5.4
Breece Hall	5	6	56	0	18%	0.9
Tyler Conklin	2	3	10	0	9%	-0.3
Jeremy Ruckert	2	3	7	0	9%	-0.9
Braelon Allen	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.4
Mike Williams	0	3	0	0	9%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jamien Sherwood	6	6	0.0	0
Ashtyn Davis	6	3	0.0	0
Tony Adams	5	2	0.0	0
Quincy Williams	2	4	0.0	0
Chuck Clark	1	3	0.0	0
Brandin Echols	3	0	0.0	0
Ahmad Gardner	1	2	0.0	0
Isaiah Oliver	2	0	0.0	1
Quinnen Williams	1	1	1.0	0
Javon Kinlaw	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -1
Closing total: 42
BUF moneyline: -122
NYJ moneyline: +102

Bills closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 42; the game landed 43 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 49°F, wind 14 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: BUF 8 days · NYJ 8 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Robert Saleh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.