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Buffalo Bills 23, Jets 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 0:08, 1st and 10, on Allen Lazard — 19.3 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:08 · 1st and 10
Allen Lazard
Jets
(:08) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 10-A.Lazard for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.1 mph wind
Bills closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.
Buffalo Bills 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:08, Jets +19.3% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.1 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
19.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Breece HallJetsQ3 7:51(7:51) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall left end pushed ob at BUF 3 for 42 yards (9-T.Rapp).
17.9pts
Allen LazardJetsQ4 12:04(12:04) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 10-A.Lazard to BUF 27 for 25 yards (3-D.Hamlin) [90-D.Carter].
15.3pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bills won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Jets at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 2 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Bills at 6 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Bills165 of 177 plays carry both curves
(:08) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 10-A.Lazard for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +19.3 for JetsExpected points +6.64 for JetsThe model had Jets 6 points higher than the market did.play 87
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:08NYJ +19% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 10-A.Lazard for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 7:51NYJ +18% win prob(7:51) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall left end pushed ob at BUF 3 for 42 yards (9-T.Rapp).
4th · 12:04NYJ +15% win prob(12:04) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 10-A.Lazard to BUF 27 for 25 yards (3-D.Hamlin) [90-D.Carter].
4th · 9:47BUF +12% win prob(9:47) 9-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
4th · 2:01BUF +12% win prob(2:01) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 18-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 7-Ta.Johnson at BUF 18. 7-Ta.Johnson to BUF 18 for no gain (18-M.Williams). NYJ-18-M.Williams was injured during the play.
3rd · 0:59BUF +11% win prob(:59) 9-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Bass's 22-yard field goal with 3:46 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:09Greg Zuerlein·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+30–3
3rd6:17Greg Zuerlein·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+320–20
4th3:46Tyler Bass·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+323–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryJets
Bills6–3Jets
362Total yards393
6.4Yards per play6.7
54%Success rate37%
50%Third-down rate33%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays10
20First downs17
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers2
The read
Bills ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.28Bills: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.19Jets: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.33Bills: +0.33 expected points added per play
+0.29Jets: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.23Bills: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.00Jets: −0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 57 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Jets’s 59 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Bills 4, Jets 5.
NoteJets outgained Bills 393-362 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's early-down pass rate turned over: 79.2% in week 5 against 57.4% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · −1.7 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Jets6.7%
inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 46.7%, 18.3 points above their season mean of 28.4% and 2.0 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass−17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:01) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 18-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 7-Ta.Johnson at BUF 18. 7-Ta.Johnson to BUF 18 for no gain (18-M.Williams). NYJ-18-M.Williams was injured during the play.
Q4 2:01 · Jets · 3rd & 16 at NYJ 40 · gained nothing · -0.89 EP · −16.9% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 90 yards from the BUF 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
45%
Yards
752
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.3678%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.1158%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.3140%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0433%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.6820%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.160%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Bills0Jets3
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Bills 16
Bills6Jets3
Bills7Jets3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Jets 1
Bills7Jets9
Bills7Jets10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Bills 5
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 38
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 40
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.6 seconds
Bills13Jets10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Jets 8
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 38 to the Bills 38
Bills19Jets10
Bills20Jets10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Jets 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxTwo defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.8 seconds
Bills20Jets16
Bills20Jets17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jets 48
3rd quarter40 plays
No good10 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Jets 29
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bills20Jets20
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Bills 3
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 34
No good8 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Bills 4
The period ended5 plays
4th quarter46 plays
Punt3 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
No good10 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Bills 25
Bills23Jets20
Field goal13 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Jets 3
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jets 48
The period ended11 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Bills 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
