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2024 Week 6 · Mon, Oct 14, 2024 · MetLife Stadium
23
20
Buffalo Bills 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:08, NYJ +19% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(:08) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 10-A.Lazard for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
(11:09) 9-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: BUF 0 — NYJ 3(6:16) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — NYJ 3(2:06) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — NYJ 10(6:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 13-M.Hollins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BUF 13 — NYJ 10(:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 20 — NYJ 10(:08) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 10-A.Lazard for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 20 — NYJ 17(6:17) 9-G.Zuerlein 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: BUF 20 — NYJ 20(3:46) 2-T.Bass 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. PENALTY on NYJ-54-J.Kinlaw, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Score after this play: BUF 23 — NYJ 20Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Bills | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 57 | 59 |
| Total yards | 362 | 393 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 6.4 | 6.7 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.28 (edge) | 0.19 |
| Success rate | 54% (edge) | 37% |
| Dropback rate | 53% | 64% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.33 (edge) | 0.29 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.23 (edge) | -0.00 |
| Third downs | 5/10 (edge) | 4/12 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 | 10 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 20 (edge) | 17 |
| Sacks taken | 2 (edge) | 3 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 2 |
Jets outgained Bills 393–362 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
23/35, 294 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
11.2 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
19/25, 215 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
10.8 expected points added · +18.9% completion over expected
Receiving · NYJ
8/10 for 107 yds, 1 TD
29% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | NYJ 30 | 9 | 54 | 3:54 | Field goal +3 | |
| 2 | BUF | BUF 30 | 11 | 75 | 4:54 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 3 | NYJ | NYJ 30 | 11 | 70 | 4:11 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 4 | BUF | BUF 30 | 5 | 8 | 1:36 | Punt | |
| 5 | NYJ | NYJ 20 | 7 | 15 | 3:19 | Punt | |
| 6 | BUF | BUF 10 | 11 | 85 | 5:12 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 7 | NYJ | NYJ 38 | 7 | 16 | 4:05 | Punt | |
| 8 | BUF | BUF 20 | 11 | 49 | 2:28 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | NYJ | NYJ 30 | 5 | 70 | 0:21 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | BUF | BUF 23 | 8 | 58 | 3:54 | Missed field goal | |
| 11 | NYJ | NYJ 37 | 10 | 45 | 4:53 | Field goal +3 | |
| 12 | BUF | BUF 30 | 5 | 9 | 1:48 | Punt | |
| 13 | NYJ | NYJ 26 | 7 | 57 | 3:30 | Missed field goal | |
| 14 | BUF | BUF 22 | 4 | 16 | 1:49 | Punt | |
| 15 | NYJ | NYJ 34 | 9 | 56 | 4:22 | Missed field goal | |
| 16 | BUF | BUF 33 | 11 | 50 | 6:01 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | NYJ | NYJ 30 | 7 | 10 | 1:51 | Interception | |
| 18 | BUF | BUF 18 | 6 | 12 | 1:52 | End of game |
8 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 19/25 | 215 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Davis | 20 | 97 | 4.8 | 0 | 3.2 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 | 1.9 |
| Josh Allen | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 1 | 0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Davis | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 13% | 3.5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 6 | 7 | 51 | 0 | 30% | 1.6 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taron Johnson | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Taylor Rapp | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Damar Hamlin | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Terrel Bernard |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/35 | 294 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 18 | 113 | 6.3 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 42; the game landed 43 — over by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 0.8 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 17% | 1.0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 9% | 1.6 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 4% | 3.8 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 9% | 2.0 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dorian Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.2 |
| Braelon Allen | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 6 | 7 | 114 | 1 | 21% | 10.9 |
| Garrett Wilson | 8 | 10 | 107 | 1 | 29% | 5.4 |
| Breece Hall | 5 | 6 | 56 | 0 | 18% | 0.9 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 9% | -0.3 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 9% | -0.9 |
| Braelon Allen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -1.4 |
| Mike Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9% | -1.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamien Sherwood | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Adams | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandin Echols | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Gardner | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quinnen Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
