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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 6
It turned at Q1 11:41, 3rd and 18, on Joe Burrow — 15.8 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cincinnati Bengals 17–7. Biggest swing: Q1 11:41, Bengals +15.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:41 · 3rd and 18
Joe Burrow
Bengals
(11:41) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles right end for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Giants owned this one and still lost it — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.39 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Bengals at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.30 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.14 expected points per snap.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(11:41) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles right end for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Evan McPherson's 37-yard field goal with 0:45 left in the 3rd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Evan McPherson37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap C.AdomitisLead never changed again+310–74 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bengalscategory by categoryGiants
Giants ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 50 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Giants’s 71 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 3, Giants 2.
Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CIN's play-action rate, 32.4%, is past their previous high of 21.9% in week 4 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · +2.4σ from their own normal
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 14.3% in week 5 against 62.5% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
8 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.4 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Bengals10.5 ptsright on their number · +2.6 vs their 7.9 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 50 snaps
Giants0.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their -3.6 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 71 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 34% to 83%
Tendencies room →Bengals61.5%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 62.1%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 39 early downs
Giants60.8%right on their number · +2.9 vs their 57.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 50%
Tendencies room →Bengals32.4%off script — faked the run · +14.0 vs their 18.3%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+2.42× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Giants27.9%right on their number · +4.0 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25% to 117%
Fourth Down room →Bengals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 45.8%.
Giants62.5%leaned — went for it · +22.7 vs their 39.8%, and they swing ±22.4 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 8 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 60%
Tendencies room →Bengals39.5%leaned — sent pressure · +11.8 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.29× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Giants20.6%inside their normal wobble · −8.6 vs their 29.2%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 36%
Tendencies room →Bengals14.0%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Giants20.6%inside their normal wobble · +5.7 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
CIN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 32.4%, 14.0 points above their season mean of 18.3% and 2.4 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CIN
19/28, 208 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-0.5 expected points added · +11.1% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
22/41, 205 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-15.3 expected points added · -8.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Joe Burrow banked 8.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone TracyRB · Committee Back | 22.7 | +2.8 | 84% | 76% | 17% | 0% | 17 car, 50 yd, 1 TD · 6/6, 57 yd |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 19.8 | +8.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/28, 208 yd · 4 car, 55 yd, 1 TD |
| Tee HigginsWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.7 | +3.2 | 85% | 94% | 30% | 32% | 7/7, 77 yd |
| Chase BrownRB · Committee Back | 14.4 | +5.2 | 62% | 56% | 13% | 0% | 10 car, 53 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 11 yd |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.2 | +2.8 | 92% | 97% | 26% | 39% | 5/6, 72 yd |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 11.8 | −4.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/41, 205 yd, 1 INT · 11 car, 56 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.7 | −5.9 | 86% | 91% | 31% | 44% | 6/11, 57 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.0 | −5.5 | 81% | 82% | 31% | 22% | 5/11, 50 yd |
| Theo JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | +2.2 | 89% | 84% | 8% | 5% | 3/3, 30 yd |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −0.6 | 66% | 71% | 13% | 33% | 2/3, 36 yd |
| Erick AllTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −1.5 | 43% | 44% | 13% | 5% | 2/3, 10 yd |
| Jalin HyattWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −4.6 | 81% | 82% | 11% | 29% | 1/4, 6 yd |
| Isaiah HodginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 19% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Eric GrayRB | 1.3 | −0.1 | 18% | 20% | 0% | — | 3 car, 13 yd |
| Zack MossRB | 0.5 | −4.3 | 45% | 47% | 4% | 0% | 6 car, 13 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Charlie JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dante MillerRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 18% | 7% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:41) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles right end for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 11:41 · Bengals · 3rd & 18 at NYG 47 · gained 47 · +6.53 EP · +20.8% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 79 yards from the NYG 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Bengals6
Giants0Bengals7Giants0How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
It should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Bengals7Giants6Bengals7Giants7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Bengals10Giants7How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
Bengals16Giants7Bengals17Giants7Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bengals at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 19/28 | 208 | 0 | 0 | 4 | −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 4 | 55 | 13.8 | 1 | +8.5 |
| Chase Brown | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Zack Moss |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 7 | 7 | 77 | 0 | 30% | +6.9 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 6 | 72 | 0 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Wilson | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Germaine Pratt | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| B.J. Hill |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 22/41 | 205 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −15.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_06_CIN_NYG
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 46; the game landed 24 — under by 22.0.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 13 |
| 2.2 |
| 0 |
| −8.1 |
| +3.3 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 13% | +1.8 |
| Chase Brown | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 13% | −0.9 |
| Erick All | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 13% | −0.4 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Geno Stone | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sam Hubbard | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Battle | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hilton | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Myles Murphy | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Turner | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 11 | 56 | 5.1 | 0 | +5.2 |
| Tyrone Tracy | 17 | 50 | 2.9 | 1 | −1.0 |
| Eric Gray | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy | 6 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 17% | +3.5 |
| Darius Slayton | 6 | 11 | 57 | 0 | 31% | −0.6 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 11 | 50 | 0 | 31% | −4.8 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 8% | +0.7 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 11% | −2.8 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Nubin | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Micah McFadden | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Ojulari | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Banks | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andru Phillips | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter Lawrence | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pinnock | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cordale Flott | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
