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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:58 AM ET · 16 to play
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Bengals156 of 166 plays carry both curves
(11:41) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles right end for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −15.8 for GiantsExpected points −6.53 for GiantsThe model had Giants 23 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:41NYG +16% win prob(11:41) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles right end for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:32CIN +13% win prob(10:32) 34-G.Joseph 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack.
4th · 3:05CIN +13% win prob(3:05) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 86-D.Slayton (20-D.Turner).
4th · 13:30NYG +10% win prob(13:30) 8-D.Jones right guard to CIN 45 for 1 yard (92-B.Hill).
4th · 3:47CIN +10% win prob(3:47) 29-T.Tracy left tackle to CIN 36 for -1 yards (20-D.Turner).
1st · 12:26CIN +10% win prob(12:26) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at NYG 47 for -8 yards (0-B.Burns).
4th · 2:12NYG +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Evan McPherson's 37-yard field goal with 0:45 left in the 3rd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Giants ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Bengals: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.14Giants: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Bengals: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.30Giants: −0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.39Bengals: −0.39 expected points added per play
+0.11Giants: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 50 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Giants’s 71 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 3, Giants 2.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 14.3% in week 5 against 62.5% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
8 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Giants20.6%
inside their normal wobble · +5.7 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteCIN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 32.4%, 14.0 points above their season mean of 18.3% and 2.4 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow scrambles+21% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:41) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles right end for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 11:41 · Bengals · 3rd & 18 at NYG 47 · gained 47 · +6.53 EP · +20.8% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 79 yards from the NYG 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
45%
Yards
613
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.1460%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.2469%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.5656%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.3578%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.2020%
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Bengals6Giants0
Bengals7Giants0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Giants 39
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 47
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 3 to the Bengals 12
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
It should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Giants 33 to the Bengals 14
The period ended8 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Giants 42
2nd quarter37 plays
Punt1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 29
Punt4 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 17 to the Giants 45
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 12 to the Bengals 47
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Giants 12
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 45 to the Giants 49
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 38
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Giants 26
Bengals7Giants6
Bengals7Giants7
Touchdown19 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Bengals 1
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.2 seconds
Bengals10Giants7
Field goal11 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Giants 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter48 plays
No good10 plays, from the Giants 45 to the Bengals 28
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 37 to the Giants 44
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Giants 11 to the Bengals 35
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.2 seconds
Bengals16Giants7
Bengals17Giants7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Giants 30
No good11 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Bengals 27
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -4.5
Closing total
46
Bengals moneyline
-230
Giants moneyline
+190
Bengals closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 46; the game landed 24 — under by 22.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 69°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the south; partly cloudy.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Bengals 7 days · Giants 7 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Brian Daboll
(2:12) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 80-A.Iosivas ran ob at NYG 37 for 29 yards.
3rd · 12:37CIN +9% win prob(12:37) (Shotgun) 31-Z.Moss right guard to NYG 25 for 1 yard (58-B.Okereke; 51-A.Ojulari). FUMBLES (58-B.Okereke), touched at NYG 24, RECOVERED by NYG-41-M.McFadden at NYG 21.
