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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Lions170 of 178 plays carry both curves
(4:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at DET -8. Touchback.
Swing −12.9 for CowboysExpected points −5.26 for CowboysThe model had Cowboys 16 points higher than the market did.play 30
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:39DET +13% win prob(4:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at DET -8. Touchback.
1st · 10:41DAL +12% win prob(10:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 17-T.Patrick to DAL 23 for 42 yards (27-A.Oruwariye).
2nd · 11:49DAL +9% win prob(11:49) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 87-S.LaPorta for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:04DAL +6% win prob(14:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DET 27 for 27 yards (32-B.Branch).
1st · 9:13DAL +4% win prob(9:13) 5-D.Montgomery left guard for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:42DAL +4% win prob(7:42) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DET 38 for -5 yards (97-A.Hutchinson). PENALTY on DET-46-J.Campbell, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DET 33 - No Play.
1st · 8:33
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
David Montgomery's 16-yard rushing touchdown with 9:13 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:24Brandon Aubrey·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+30–3
1st9:13David Montgomery·16-yd TD run16-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–3
2nd13:31Jake Bates·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+310–3
2nd11:49Sam LaPorta·52-yd TD catch52-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+717–3
2nd4:01Jake Bates·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+320–3
2nd0:12Brandon Aubrey·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+327–6
3rd12:42Jameson Williams·37-yd TD catch37-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+734–6
3rd8:52Brandon Aubrey·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+334–9
3rd5:29Jake Bates·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+337–9
4th14:15Jake Bates·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+340–9
4th13:22Amon-Ra St. Brown·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+747–9
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryCowboys
Lions9–0Cowboys
494Total yards251
7.7Yards per play3.9
47%Success rate29%
40%Third-down rate23%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
14Explosive plays3
26First downs13
3Sacks taken4
0Turnovers5
The read
Lions ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.68 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.37Lions: +0.37 expected points added per play
−0.55Cowboys: −0.55 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.49Lions: +0.49 expected points added per play
−0.68Cowboys: −0.68 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.26Lions: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.14Cowboys: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 64 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 65 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Lions 7, Cowboys 3.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs -0.55.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's blitz rate sent, 25.0%, is past their previous low of 28.6% in week 1 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 12 pts
leaned — got home · +6.9 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Cowboys18.8%
right on their number · +2.5 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteDAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 58.5 points above their season mean of 41.5% and 1.7 times their own 33.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 5 inactive
58Penei SewellT · Every snap100%68 snaps
60Graham GlasgowG · Every snap100%68 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%68 snaps
71Kevin ZeitlerG · Full-time84%57 snaps
77Frank RagnowC · Full-time84%57 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Full-time84%57 snaps
9Jameson WilliamsWR · Heavy rotation75%51 snaps
14Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Heavy rotation63%43 snaps
87Sam LaPortaTE · Heavy rotation62%42 snaps
26Jahmyr GibbsRB · Heavy rotation54%37 snaps
89Brock WrightTE · Heavy rotation50%34 snaps
17Tim PatrickWR · Rotational44%30 snaps
11Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational35%24 snaps
43Parker HesseTE · Rotational34%23 snaps
5David MontgomeryRB · Rotational31%21 snaps
74Kayode AwosikaT · Situational21%14 snaps
13Craig ReynoldsRB · Situational16%11 snaps
70Dan SkipperT · Situational16%11 snaps
62Michael NieseT · Situational16%11 snaps
2Hendon HookerQB · Situational16%11 snaps
8Allen RobinsonWR · Situational13%9 snaps
33Sione VakiRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
James HoustonDEColby SorsdalGLoren StricklandSSGiovanni ManuTIsaiah WilliamsWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass−17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at DET -8. Touchback.
Q1 4:39 · Cowboys · 3rd & 5 at DET 7 · gained nothing · -5.26 EP · −16.7% win probability
168 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 70 yards from the DET 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
45%
Yards
743
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.6378%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.4960%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.4739%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0367%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Lions0Cowboys3
Field goal11 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Lions 16
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Lions6Cowboys3
Lions7Cowboys3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Cowboys 16
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Lions 7
The period ended9 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Cowboys 37
2nd quarter54 plays
Lions10Cowboys3
Field goal4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 35
Lions16Cowboys3
Lions17Cowboys3
Touchdown4 plays, from the Lions 37 to the Lions 48
Punt5 plays
Lions20Cowboys3
Field goal11 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Cowboys 22
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 38
Lions26Cowboys3
Lions27Cowboys3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 38 to the Cowboys 1
Lions27Cowboys6
Field goal6 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 29
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Lions33Cowboys6
Lions34Cowboys6
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Cowboys 37
Lions34Cowboys9
Field goal13 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Lions 30
Lions37Cowboys9
Field goal8 plays, from the Lions 41 to the Cowboys 1
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to midfield
The period ended9 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Cowboys 10
4th quarter43 plays
Lions40Cowboys9
Field goal3 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Cowboys 28 to the Cowboys 32
Lions46Cowboys9
Lions47Cowboys9
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended13 plays, from the Cowboys 41 to the Lions 5
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Cowboys 31
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Lions 34
The period ended6 plays, from the Lions 33 to the Lions 44
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
