2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · Gillette Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

New England Patriots

HOU -6.5 ✓O 38.5 ✓Texans closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Houston Texans 41–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 14:18, HOU +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 14:18HOU 14 — NE 7NE ball · 2nd & 9HOU 85%

(14:18) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 14 for -8 yards (55-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (55-D.Hunter) [55-D.Hunter], RECOVERED by HOU-97-M.Edwards at NE 10. NE-10-D.Maye was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 14:18HOU +8% win prob(14:18) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 14 for -8 yards (55-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (55-D.Hunter) [55-D.Hunter], RECOVERED by HOU-97-M.Edwards at NE 10. NE-10-D.Maye was injured during the play.
Q2 · 0:16NE +5% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 9-K.Boutte for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10-Maye 1st NFL TD pass.
Q1 · 13:41NE +5% win prob(13:41) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 3-T.Dell to NE 34 for 20 yards (23-K.Dugger).
Q1 · 7:43HOU +4% win prob(7:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to HOU 36, Center-46-T.Addington. 82-S.Sims ran ob at NE 45 for 19 yards (52-C.Jacobs).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:18HOU Touchdown
(9:18) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 3-T.Dell for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 7 — NE 0
Q1 · 3:18HOU Touchdown
(3:18) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 28-J.Mixon for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 14 — NE 0
Q2 · 0:16NE Touchdown
(:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 9-K.Boutte for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10-Maye 1st NFL TD pass. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 14 — NE 7
Q3 · 13:31HOU Touchdown
(13:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 1-S.Diggs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on HOU-1-S.Diggs, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 21 — NE 7
Q3 · 7:00HOU Field goal
(7:00) 15-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: HOU 24 — NE 7
Q3 · 5:26HOU Field goal
(5:26) 15-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: HOU 27 — NE 7
Q3 · 1:05NE Touchdown
(1:05) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 27 — NE 14
Q4 · 13:23HOU Touchdown
(13:23) 28-J.Mixon left end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 34 — NE 14
Q4 · 9:31NE Touchdown
(9:31) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 34 — NE 21
Q4 · 7:58HOU Touchdown
(7:58) (Shotgun) 31-D.Pierce right end for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 41 — NE 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Patriots
Offensive plays	61	63
Total yards	369 (edge)	291
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	4.6
Expected points added / play	0.12 (edge)	-0.31
Success rate	39% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	57%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	-0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	-0.39
Third downs	4/11 (edge)	3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	4

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.31.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

20/33, 243 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

-9.8 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

20/31, 192 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

2.6 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Joe MixonRB

13 att, 102 yds, 1 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Dameon PierceRB

8 att, 76 yds, 1 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Demario DouglasWR

6/9 for 92 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 0.7 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Stefon DiggsWR

6/7 for 77 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 35	13	61	5:47	Touchdown +7
2	NE	NE 23	5	1	1:39	Punt
3	HOU	NE 45	9	39	4:21	Touchdown +7
4	NE	NE 30	4	7	1:34	Interception
5	HOU	NE 27	4	5	2:09	Missed field goal
6	NE	NE 30	5	13	3:06	Punt
7	HOU	HOU 19	3	59	1:00	Interception
8	NE	NE 27	7	21	2:26	Punt
9	HOU	HOU 9	4	5	2:36	Punt
10	NE	NE 11	6	9	2:44	Punt
11	HOU	HOU 24	6	15	1:39	Punt
12	NE	NE 16	6	71	0:48	Touchdown +7
13	HOU	HOU 30	2	0	0:11	End of half
14	NE	NE 21	3	-11	0:50	Fumble
15	HOU	NE 10	3	10	0:42	Touchdown +7
16	NE	NE 26	5	1	1:30	Punt
17	HOU	HOU 20	10	59	5:02	Field goal +3
18	NE	NE 24	2	5	0:14	Fumble
19	HOU	NE 31	4	3	1:20	Field goal +3
20	NE	NE 30	9	75	4:22	Touchdown +7
21	HOU	HOU 25	7	18	1:53	Punt
22	NE	NE 22	1	0	0:04	Interception
23	HOU	NE 26	3	26	0:49	Touchdown +7
24	NE	NE 30	10	70	3:50	Touchdown +7
25	HOU	HOU 30	6	70	1:37	Touchdown +7
26	NE	NE 28	6	2	2:35	Punt
27	HOU	HOU 22	4	-1	1:41	Punt
28	NE	HOU 44	11	27	3:31	End of game

10 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Stroud	20/31	192	3	1	2	2.6
Davis Mills	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	13	102	7.8	1	2.8
Dameon Pierce	8	76	9.5	1	3.2
Dare Ogunbowale	2	8	4.0	0	0.1
C.J. Stroud	3	7	2.3	0	0.4
Cam Akers	2	-1	-0.5	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	6	7	77	1	23%	7.3
Tank Dell	7	9	57	1	29%	5.4
Joe Mixon	2	3	30	1	10%	2.5
Dalton Schultz	4	8	27	0	26%	-6.2
Dameon Pierce	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.5
Xavier Hutchinson	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.0
Cade Stover	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Henry To'oTo'o	2	6	0.0	0	0
Neville Hewitt	5	3	0.0	0	0
Will Anderson	5	2	3.0	0	1
Mario Edwards	2	5	0.0	0	1
Eric Murray	4	3	0.0	1	1
Jalen Pitre	2	2	0.0	0	1
Myles Bryant	3	0	0.0	0	0
Derek Stingley	3	0	0.0	0	1
Jake Hansen	1	2	0.0	0	0
D'Angelo Ross	1	1	0.0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drake Maye	20/33	243	3	2	4	-9.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Drake Maye	5	38	7.6	4.0
Antonio Gibson	13	19	1.5	-6.9
Terrell Jennings	5	13	2.6	-1.2
Jamycal Hasty	3	12	4.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Demario Douglas	6	9	92	1	29%	0.7
Kayshon Boutte	3	3	59	1	10%	6.2
Hunter Henry	3	5	41	1	16%	1.7
Antonio Gibson	3	4	24	0	13%	-1.0
Jamycal Hasty	1	2	9	0	6%	-0.2
Kendrick Bourne	2	2	9	0	6%	-0.2
Austin Hooper	1	2	5	0	6%	-5.7
Ja'Lynn Polk	1	4	4	0	13%	-6.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Davon Godchaux	3	4	0.0	0	0
Jahlani Tavai	1	5	0.0	0	0
Anfernee Jennings	3	2	0.0	0	0
Marte Mapu	1	4	0.5	0	1
Keion White	0	4	0.0	0	2
Kyle Dugger	3	0	0.0	0	0
Christian Elliss	1	2	0.5	0	0
Marcus Jones	2	1	0.0	1	1
Jaquelin Roy	2	1	1.0	0	0
Raekwon McMillan	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -6.5
Closing total: 38.5
HOU moneyline: -265
NE moneyline: +215

Texans closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Total closed 38.5; the game landed 62 — over by 23.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: HOU 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: DeMeco Ryans vs Jerod Mayo