For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · Nissan Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

20

Tennessee Titans

17

TEN -2.5 upsetU 42 ✓

Indianapolis Colts 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:32, TEN +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TEN ↑IND ↓
Q4 · 7:32IND 19 — TEN 17IND ball · 3rd & 9TEN 58%

(7:32) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 7:32TEN +18% win prob(7:32) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 10:20TEN +15% win prob(10:20) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 14-A.Pierce [56-K.Murray]. PENALTY on TEN-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at IND 45 - No Play.
  3. Q3 · 6:26TEN +14% win prob(6:26) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q1 · 8:31IND +13% win prob(8:31) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker [58-H.Landry] at TEN 43. 37-A.Hooker pushed ob at IND 27 for 30 yards (27-T.Sermon).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:23IND Touchdown

    (11:23) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 1-J.Downs for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — TEN 0
  2. Q1 · 6:55TEN Touchdown

    (6:55) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — TEN 7
  3. Q2 · 11:13TEN Field goal

    (11:13) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    Score after this play: IND 7 — TEN 10
  4. Q2 · 0:22IND Field goal

    (:22) 7-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 10 — TEN 10
  5. Q3 · 6:26TEN Touchdown

    (6:26) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 10 — TEN 17
  6. Q4 · 15:00IND Field goal

    (15:00) 7-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 13 — TEN 17
  7. Q4 · 7:32IND Touchdown

    (7:32) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 20 — TEN 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsTitans
Offensive plays6655
Total yards269 (edge)241
Yards per play4.14.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.09-0.03 (edge)
Success rate33%38% (edge)
Dropback rate59%55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.02 (edge)-0.19
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.260.17 (edge)
Third downs7/15 (edge)4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)5 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps15 (edge)14
Sacks taken00
Turnovers11

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Joe FlaccoQB

22/38, 189 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

1.6 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Will LevisQB

16/27, 95 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.7 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Tony PollardRB

17 att, 93 yds, 1 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Tyler GoodsonRB

8 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Josh DownsWR

7/9 for 66 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

DeAndre HopkinsWR

4/6 for 54 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 0.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 3012703:43Touchdown +7
2TENTEN 25572:07Punt
3INDIND 36200:48Interception
4TENIND 274271:31Touchdown +7
5INDIND 30511:40Punt
6TENTEN 1815569:02Field goal +3
7INDIND 158253:34Punt
8TENTEN 206313:56Punt
9INDIND 2910593:20Field goal +3
10TENTEN 30240:19End of half
11TENTEN 3016758:41Touchdown +7
12INDIND 3016456:22Field goal +3
13TENTEN 30592:07Punt
14INDIND 2512425:23Touchdown +7
15TENTEN 30500:24Punt
16INDIND 26441:29Punt
17TENTEN 30210:42Interception
18INDIND 37431:03Punt
19TENTEN 67191:31Punt
20INDIND 206202:06Punt
21TENTEN 31120:12End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 75 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Flacco22/381892101.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tyler Goodson8516.400.7
Trey Sermon18291.60-6.9
Joe Flacco111.00-0.8
Josh Downs1-1-1.00-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Josh Downs7966125%5.9
Mo Alie-Cox4441011%3.6
Michael Pittman3535114%-1.7
Andrew Ogletree222406%2.8
Tyler Goodson4514014%-1.1
Adonai Mitchell249011%-1.0
Ashton Dulin01003%-0.9
Kylen Granson01003%-0.6
Alec Pierce040011%-3.1
Will Mallory01003%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Cross240.000
Jaylon Jones510.001
Zaire Franklin510.000
E.J. Speed320.000
Kenny Moore320.000
Grover Stewart220.001
Jaylon Carlies220.001
Julian Blackmon300.011
Ashton Dulin200.000
Laiatu Latu200.000

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Will Levis16/2795110-5.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tony Pollard17935.514.0
Tyjae Spears6274.500.0
Will Levis3155.00-0.0
Calvin Ridley199.000.7
Julius Chestnut122.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DeAndre Hopkins4654022%0.8
Tyler Boyd3319011%1.2
Treylon Burks111004%2.5
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine12917%1.3
Chigoziem Okonkwo336011%-0.3
Josh Whyle11204%-0.3
Calvin Ridley080030%-7.4
Tony Pollard33-5011%-3.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ernest Jones360.000
Kenneth Murray620.000
L'Jarius Sneed610.000
Harold Landry420.000
Amani Hooker420.011
Roger McCreary220.000
Quandre Diggs400.000
T'Vondre Sweat120.000
Jeffery Simmons300.000
Mike Brown200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Closing total
42
IND moneyline
+114
TEN moneyline
-135

Titans closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42; the game landed 37 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
80°F, wind 12 mph
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
IND 7 days · TEN 13 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Brian Callahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.