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2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · Nissan Stadium
20
17
Indianapolis Colts 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:32, TEN +18% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(7:32) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
(11:23) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 1-J.Downs for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 7 — TEN 0(6:55) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 7 — TEN 7(11:13) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: IND 7 — TEN 10(:22) 7-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: IND 10 — TEN 10(6:26) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 10 — TEN 17(15:00) 7-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: IND 13 — TEN 17(7:32) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 20 — TEN 17Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Colts | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 66 | 55 |
| Total yards | 269 (edge) | 241 |
| Yards per play | 4.1 | 4.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.09 | -0.03 (edge) |
| Success rate | 33% | 38% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 59% | 55% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.02 (edge) | -0.19 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.26 | 0.17 (edge) |
| Third downs | 7/15 (edge) | 4/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 (edge) | 4 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 15 (edge) | 14 |
| Sacks taken | 0 | 0 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
22/38, 189 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
1.6 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
16/27, 95 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.7 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | IND 30 | 12 | 70 | 3:43 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | TEN | TEN 25 | 5 | 7 | 2:07 | Punt | |
| 3 | IND | IND 36 | 2 | 0 | 0:48 | Interception | |
| 4 | TEN | IND 27 | 4 | 27 | 1:31 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | IND | IND 30 | 5 | 1 | 1:40 | Punt | |
| 6 | TEN | TEN 18 | 15 | 56 | 9:02 | Field goal +3 | |
| 7 | IND | IND 15 | 8 | 25 | 3:34 | Punt | |
| 8 | TEN | TEN 20 | 6 | 31 | 3:56 | Punt | |
| 9 | IND | IND 29 | 10 | 59 | 3:20 | Field goal +3 | |
| 10 | TEN | TEN 30 | 2 | 4 | 0:19 | End of half | |
| 11 | TEN | TEN 30 | 16 | 75 | 8:41 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 12 | IND | IND 30 | 16 | 45 | 6:22 | Field goal +3 | |
| 13 | TEN | TEN 30 | 5 | 9 | 2:07 | Punt | |
| 14 | IND | IND 25 | 12 | 42 | 5:23 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | TEN | TEN 30 | 5 | 0 | 0:24 | Punt | |
| 16 | IND | IND 26 | 4 | 4 | 1:29 | Punt | |
| 17 | TEN | TEN 30 | 2 | 1 | 0:42 | Interception | |
| 18 | IND | IND 37 | 4 | 3 | 1:03 | Punt | |
| 19 | TEN | TEN 6 | 7 | 19 | 1:31 | Punt | |
| 20 | IND | IND 20 | 6 | 20 | 2:06 | Punt | |
| 21 | TEN | TEN 3 | 1 | 12 | 0:12 | End of game |
7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 75 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/38 | 189 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Goodson | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Trey Sermon | 18 | 29 | 1.6 | 0 | -6.9 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Josh Downs | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs | 7 | 9 | 66 | 1 | 25% | 5.9 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 11% | 3.6 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 14% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Cross | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Jones | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zaire Franklin | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| E.J. Speed |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 16/27 | 95 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -5.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Titans closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42; the game landed 37 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| -1.7 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 6% | 2.8 |
| Tyler Goodson | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 14% | -1.1 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 11% | -1.0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.9 |
| Kylen Granson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.6 |
| Alec Pierce | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11% | -3.1 |
| Will Mallory | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.8 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grover Stewart | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylon Carlies | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Julian Blackmon | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ashton Dulin | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laiatu Latu | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Will Levis | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | -0.0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Julius Chestnut | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 22% | 0.8 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 11% | 1.2 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | 2.5 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 7% | 1.3 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11% | -0.3 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | -0.3 |
| Calvin Ridley | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 30% | -7.4 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | -5 | 0 | 11% | -3.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Murray | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Roger McCreary | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T'Vondre Sweat | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
