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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 6
It turned at Q4 7:32, 3rd and 9, on Michael Pittman — 18.0 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Indianapolis Colts 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:32, Colts +18.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:32 · 3rd and 9
Michael Pittman
Colts
(7:32) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Titans owned this one and still lost it — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.26 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Colts at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Colts won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Titans at 4 of 11 on third down.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Colts won this one — +0.02 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(7:32) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Michael Pittman's 10-yard touchdown catch with 7:32 left in the 4th put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Michael Pittman10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe FlaccoLead never changed again+720–177 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Coltscategory by categoryTitans
Colts ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 66 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Titans’s 55 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Colts 4, Titans 2.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
TEN's sack or hit rate, 5.1%, is past their previous low of 9.1% in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 6.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Colts-0.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.6 vs their -8.7 pts, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 66 snaps
Titans-9.1 ptsright on their number · −2.4 vs their -6.7 pts, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 17% to 88%
Tendencies room →Colts54.0%right on their number · +3.2 vs their 50.8%, and they swing ±13.0 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 50 early downs
Titans51.2%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 54.8%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 54%
Tendencies room →Colts25.6%right on their number · −4.3 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Titans20.0%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 21.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 111%
Fourth Down room →Colts33.3%right on their number · −8.3 vs their 41.7%, and they swing ±27.3 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Titans25.0%inside their normal wobble · −13.0 vs their 38.0%, and they swing ±19.8 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 55%
Tendencies room →Colts26.7%inside their normal wobble · +6.7 vs their 20.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Titans41.0%leaned — sent pressure · +12.2 vs their 28.9%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 32%
Tendencies room →Colts13.3%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Titans5.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.9 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
TEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.1%, 6.9 points below their season mean of 12.0% and 1.4 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
22/38, 189 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
1.6 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
16/27, 95 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.7 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tony Pollard banked 5.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh DownsWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.5 | +4.7 | 79% | 79% | 25% | 11% | 1 car, -1 yd · 7/9, 66 yd, 1 TD |
| Tony PollardRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.8 | +5.2 | 74% | 77% | 11% | 0% | 17 car, 93 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, -5 yd |
| Joe FlaccoQB · Starter QB | 13.7 | −4.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/38, 189 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 1 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.5 | +4.0 | 80% | 85% | 14% | 15% | 3/5, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler GoodsonRB · Committee Back | 10.5 | −1.3 | 39% | 46% | 14% | 0% | 8 car, 51 yd · 4/5, 14 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Featured Receiver | 9.4 | +0.5 | 71% | 70% | 22% | 37% | 4/6, 54 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +1.6 | 49% | 41% | 11% | 8% | 4/4, 41 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | +3.5 | 22% | 20% | 7% | 8% | 1/2, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| Will LevisQB · Starter QB | 7.3 | −4.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/27, 95 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 15 yd |
| Tyler BoydWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | +0.6 | 69% | 70% | 11% | 1% | 3/3, 19 yd |
| Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | +1.4 | 30% | 26% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 24 yd |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 3.6 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Trey SermonRB · Bell Cow Back | 2.9 | −9.1 | 60% | 51% | 0% | — | 18 car, 29 yd |
| Adonai MitchellWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −3.8 | 21% | 28% | 11% | 9% | 2/4, 9 yd |
| Tyjae SpearsRB | 2.7 | −0.3 | 21% | 17% | 0% | — | 6 car, 27 yd |
| Treylon BurksWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.1 | 16% | 20% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Josh WhyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.1 | 40% | 37% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Calvin RidleyWR · Alpha Receiver | 0.9 | −13.4 | 83% | 83% | 30% | 54% | 1 car, 9 yd · 0/8, 0 yd |
| Julius ChestnutRB | 0.2 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 24% | 31% | 3% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Will MalloryTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 14% | 18% | 3% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Alec PierceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −7.0 | 89% | 82% | 11% | 32% | 0/4, 0 yd |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.4 | 16% | 13% | 3% | 12% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jha'Quan JacksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:20) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 14-A.Pierce [56-K.Murray]. PENALTY on TEN-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at IND 45 - No Play.
Q4 10:20 · Colts · 2nd & 11 at IND 45 · gained nothing · +2.79 EP · +18.4% win probability
158 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 75 yards from the IND 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Colts6
Titans0Colts7Titans0How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Colts7Titans6Colts7Titans7Colts7Titans10Colts10Titans10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Colts10Titans16Colts10Titans17Colts13Titans17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Colts19Titans17Colts20Titans17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Colts at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/38 | 189 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Goodson | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Trey Sermon | 18 | 29 | 1.6 | 0 | −6.9 |
| Joe Flacco |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs | 7 | 9 | 66 | 1 | 25% | +5.9 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 11% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Cross | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Jones | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zaire Franklin |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 16/27 | 95 | 1 | 1 | 0 | −5.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_06_IND_TEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Titans closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42; the game landed 37 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.8 |
| Josh Downs | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| +3.6 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 14% | −1.7 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 6% | +2.8 |
| Tyler Goodson | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 14% | −1.1 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 11% | −1.0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Kylen Granson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Alec Pierce | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11% | −3.1 |
| Will Mallory | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| E.J. Speed | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grover Stewart | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylon Carlies | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Julian Blackmon | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ashton Dulin | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Laiatu Latu | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 1 | +4.0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Will Levis | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Julius Chestnut | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 22% | +0.8 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 11% | +1.2 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +2.5 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 7% | +1.3 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11% | −0.3 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Calvin Ridley | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 30% | −7.4 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | -5 | 0 | 11% | −3.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Murray | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Roger McCreary | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T'Vondre Sweat | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
