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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · Tottenham Stadium
Final
JaguarsJacksonville16
BY 19final margin
BearsChicago35
Jacksonville Jaguars 16 at Chicago Bears 35. Final.
Jaguars -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 6
Chicago Bears 35, Jaguars 16 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 11:17, 1st and 10, on Cole Kmet — 12.8 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:17 · 1st and 10
Cole Kmet
Bears
(11:17) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 85-C.Kmet for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 44.5 ✓
Jaguars closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Chicago Bears 35–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 11:17, Bears +12.8% win probability on one snap.
12.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Andre CiscoJaguarsQ2 5:23(5:23) 68-D.Kramer and 72-K.Amegadjie reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams pass deep left intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco at JAX 7. 5-A.Cisco to JAX 29 for 22 yards (23-R.Johnson).
9.1pts
Evan EngramBearsQ3 14:54(14:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 17-E.Engram to CHI 42 for 24 yards (21-J.Jones, 53-T.Edwards). FUMBLES (53-T.Edwards), RECOVERED by CHI-22-E.Hicks at CHI 40. 22-E.Hicks to JAX 41 for 19 yards (16-T.Lawrence).
9.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bears won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 4 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears won this one — 1 giveaway, against Jaguars at 3 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bears won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Jaguars at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bears won this one — +0.51 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at +0.01 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Jaguars157 of 166 plays carry both curves
(11:17) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 85-C.Kmet for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +12.8 for BearsExpected points +3.43 for BearsThe model had Bears 13 points higher than the market did.play 44
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:17CHI +13% win prob(11:17) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 85-C.Kmet for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:54JAX +10% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 17-E.Engram to CHI 42 for 24 yards (21-J.Jones, 53-T.Edwards). FUMBLES (53-T.Edwards), RECOVERED by CHI-22-E.Hicks at CHI 40. 22-E.Hicks to JAX 41 for 19 yards (16-T.Lawrence).
2nd · 5:23JAX +9% win prob(5:23) 68-D.Kramer and 72-K.Amegadjie reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams pass deep left intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco at JAX 7. 5-A.Cisco to JAX 29 for 22 yards (23-R.Johnson).
2nd · 12:01CHI +8% win prob(12:01) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 23-R.Johnson pushed ob at JAX 31 for 17 yards (25-R.Darby; 26-A.Johnson).
2nd · 0:28CHI +8% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end to JAX 2 for 19 yards (30-M.Brown).
2nd · 2:09CHI +7% win prob(2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles right end to CHI 49 for 23 yards (48-C.Muma).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cole Kmet's 31-yard touchdown catch with 11:17 left in the 2nd put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:40Cam Little·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+33–0
4th7:03Gabe Davis·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor Lawrencefrom Trevor Lawrence · two-point no good+616–35
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryBears
Jaguars0–9Bears
279Total yards376
4.7Yards per play6.5
40%Success rate50%
47%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns4
4Explosive plays10
19First downs22
4Sacks taken3
3Turnovers1
The read
Bears ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Jaguars: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.29Bears: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Jaguars: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.51Bears: +0.51 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Jaguars: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.02Bears: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 60 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Bears’s 58 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Bears 5.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 11 pts
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Bears15.9%
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteJAX's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 1.6 pts, 5.2 points above their season mean of -3.6 pts and 1.1 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
76Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%62 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%62 snaps
68Brandon ScherffG · Every snap100%62 snaps
65Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%62 snaps
77Anton HarrisonT · Full-time95%59 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Full-time95%59 snaps
7Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Heavy rotation79%49 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Heavy rotation74%46 snaps
0Gabe DavisWR · Heavy rotation69%43 snaps
17Evan EngramTE · Heavy rotation61%38 snaps
2D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Heavy rotation56%35 snaps
85Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational37%23 snaps
11Parker WashingtonWR · Rotational29%18 snaps
4Tank BigsbyRB · Rotational27%17 snaps
89Luke FarrellTE · Rotational27%17 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Situational18%11 snaps
15Tim JonesWR · Situational16%10 snaps
81Josiah DeguaraTE · Situational5%3 snaps
72Walker LittleT · Situational5%3 snaps
10Mac JonesQB · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 5
Myles ColeDETyler LacyDTJeremiah LedbetterDTCole Van LanenTJavon FosterT
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tre FlowersCB
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 7 inactive
58Darnell WrightT · Every snap100%66 snaps
79Matt PryorT · Every snap100%66 snaps
65Coleman SheltonC · Full-time95%63 snaps
70Braxton JonesT · Full-time95%63 snaps
18Caleb WilliamsQB · Full-time95%63 snaps
76Teven JenkinsT · Full-time95%63 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Full-time86%57 snaps
2DJ MooreWR · Full-time85%56 snaps
15Rome OdunzeWR · Full-time80%53 snaps
13Keenan AllenWR · Full-time80%53 snaps
4D'Andre SwiftRB · Heavy rotation68%45 snaps
14Gerald EverettTE · Rotational27%18 snaps
23Roschon JohnsonRB · Rotational27%18 snaps
84Marcedes LewisTE · Situational20%13 snaps
72Kiran AmegadjieT · Situational8%5 snaps
68Doug KramerC · Situational8%5 snaps
11DeAndre CarterWR · Situational6%4 snaps
35Khari BlasingameFB · Situational5%3 snaps
24Khalil HerbertRB · Situational5%3 snaps
10Tyler ScottWR · Situational5%3 snaps
17Tyson BagentQB · Situational5%3 snaps
60Bill MurrayG · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Terell SmithCBTyrique StevensonCBDominique RobinsonDEZacch PickensDTNate DavisGJaquan BriskerSSVelus Jones Jr.WR
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Williams pass+10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:17) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 85-C.Kmet for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 11:17 · Bears · 1st & 10 at JAX 31 · gained 31 · +3.43 EP · +9.8% win probability
155 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 85 yards from the CHI 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
47%
Yards
651
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.0976%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.5859%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.3138%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.2680%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.040%
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 30
Jaguars3Bears0
Field goal16 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Bears 8
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 35
Drive ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Jaguars 36
2nd quarter1 plays
Punt1 play
1st quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt1 play
Jaguars3Bears6
Jaguars3Bears7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bears 19 to the Jaguars 31
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 43 to the Jaguars 49
Intercepted8 plays, from the Bears 5 to the Jaguars 41
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Jaguars 37
Jaguars3Bears13
Jaguars3Bears14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Jaguars 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Fumble lost2 plays
Jaguars3Bears20
Jaguars3Bears21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Jaguars 4
Jaguars9Bears21
Jaguars10Bears21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Bears 11
The period ended14 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Jaguars 7
4th quarter49 plays
Jaguars10Bears27
Jaguars10Bears28
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Jaguars 42
Jaguars10Bears34
Jaguars10Bears35
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jaguars 36 to the Jaguars 1
Jaguars16Bears35
Touchdown19 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Bears 5
The period ended12 plays, from the Jaguars 44 to the Jaguars 25
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Jaguars 39
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
