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2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · Tottenham Stadium
16
35
Chicago Bears 35–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 11:17, CHI +13% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(11:17) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 85-C.Kmet for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
(4:40) 39-C.Little 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 3 — CHI 0(11:17) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 85-C.Kmet for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 3 — CHI 7(:17) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 85-C.Kmet for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 3 — CHI 14(11:26) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 3 — CHI 21(6:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 0-G.Davis for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 10 — CHI 21(15:00) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 10 — CHI 28(12:33) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 4-D.Swift up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 10 — CHI 35(7:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 0-G.Davis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: JAX 16 — CHI 35Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Jaguars | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 60 | 58 |
| Total yards | 279 | 376 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.7 | 6.5 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.01 | 0.29 (edge) |
| Success rate | 40% | 50% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 73% | 59% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.01 | 0.51 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.04 | -0.02 (edge) |
| Third downs | 7/15 | 5/10 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 10 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 | 22 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 3 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 (edge) |
Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
23/35, 234 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
8.5 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
23/29, 226 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
14.3 expected points added · +15.9% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | CHI 25 | 5 | 4 | 2:11 | Punt | |
| 2 | JAX | JAX 21 | 14 | 76 | 8:12 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | CHI | CHI 30 | 5 | 3 | 1:33 | Punt | |
| 4 | JAX | JAX 21 | 6 | 22 | 3:11 | Punt | |
| 5 | CHI | CHI 19 | 8 | 77 | 3:46 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | JAX | JAX 43 | 5 | 6 | 1:41 | Fumble | |
| 7 | CHI | CHI 5 | 8 | 54 | 4:16 | Interception | |
| 8 | JAX | JAX 29 | 4 | 8 | 2:02 | Punt | |
| 9 | CHI | CHI 15 | 11 | 85 | 2:55 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | JAX | JAX 27 | 2 | 0 | 0:13 | End of half | |
| 11 | JAX | JAX 34 | 2 | 24 | 0:20 | Fumble | |
| 12 | CHI | JAX 41 | 8 | 46 | 3:18 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 13 | JAX | JAX 30 | 13 | 80 | 5:20 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 14 | CHI | CHI 30 | 12 | 55 | 6:06 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | JAX | JAX 35 | 4 | -3 | 1:21 | Interception | |
| 16 | CHI | JAX 36 | 4 | 36 | 1:06 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 17 | JAX | JAX 30 | 19 | 70 | 5:31 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 18 | CHI | JAX 44 | 9 | 16 | 3:37 | Missed field goal | |
| 19 | JAX | JAX 33 | 4 | -4 | 1:29 | Punt | |
| 20 | CHI | CHI 15 | 3 | 0 | 1:52 | End of game |
8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 23/35 | 234 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8.5 |
| Mac Jones | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Ernest Johnson | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 | 1.7 |
| Tank Bigsby | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 | -2.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 10 | 10 | 102 | 0 | 29% | -0.1 |
| Gabe Davis | 5 | 8 | 45 | 2 | 23% | 7.3 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ventrell Miller | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Lloyd | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronald Darby | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 23/29 | 226 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 17 | 91 | 5.4 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 51 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
| 0.5 |
| Brian Thomas | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 17% | -0.4 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | 0.6 |
| Brenton Strange | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | 0.1 |
| Travis Etienne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Montaric Brown | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Muma | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Johnson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Esezi Otomewo | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Hamilton | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.8 |
| Caleb Williams | 4 | 56 | 14.0 | 0 | 4.2 |
| Roschon Johnson | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 | -2.3 |
| Tyson Bagent | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 5 | 70 | 2 | 19% | 6.9 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 5 | 41 | 2 | 19% | 10.6 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 8% | 2.7 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 15% | 0.2 |
| Roschon Johnson | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 12% | 2.8 |
| D.J. Moore | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 19% | -3.3 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | 0.1 |
| Gerald Everett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Edwards | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Byard | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylon Jones | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyler Gordon | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Hicks | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Austin Booker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Cowart | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Montez Sweat | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
