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2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · Tottenham Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

16

Chicago BearsWinner

35

JAX -1.5 upsetO 44.5 ✓

Chicago Bears 35–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 11:17, CHI +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHI ↑JAX ↓
Q2 · 11:17JAX 3 — CHI 6CHI ball · 1st & 10JAX 61%

(11:17) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 85-C.Kmet for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 11:17CHI +13% win prob(11:17) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 85-C.Kmet for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q3 · 14:54JAX +10% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 17-E.Engram to CHI 42 for 24 yards (21-J.Jones, 53-T.Edwards). FUMBLES (53-T.Edwards), RECOVERED by CHI-22-E.Hicks at CHI 40. 22-E.Hicks to JAX 41 for 19 yards (16-T.Lawrence).
  3. Q2 · 5:23JAX +9% win prob(5:23) 68-D.Kramer and 72-K.Amegadjie reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams pass deep left intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco at JAX 7. 5-A.Cisco to JAX 29 for 22 yards (23-R.Johnson).
  4. Q2 · 12:01CHI +8% win prob(12:01) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 23-R.Johnson pushed ob at JAX 31 for 17 yards (25-R.Darby; 26-A.Johnson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 4:40JAX Field goal

    (4:40) 39-C.Little 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 3 — CHI 0
  2. Q2 · 11:17CHI Touchdown

    (11:17) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 85-C.Kmet for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 3 — CHI 7
  3. Q2 · 0:17CHI Touchdown

    (:17) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 85-C.Kmet for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 3 — CHI 14
  4. Q3 · 11:26CHI Touchdown

    (11:26) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 3 — CHI 21
  5. Q3 · 6:08JAX Touchdown

    (6:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 0-G.Davis for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 10 — CHI 21
  6. Q4 · 15:00CHI Touchdown

    (15:00) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 10 — CHI 28
  7. Q4 · 12:33CHI Touchdown

    (12:33) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 4-D.Swift up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 10 — CHI 35
  8. Q4 · 7:03JAX Touchdown

    (7:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 0-G.Davis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: JAX 16 — CHI 35

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsBears
Offensive plays6058
Total yards279376 (edge)
Yards per play4.76.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.010.29 (edge)
Success rate40%50% (edge)
Dropback rate73%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.010.51 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.04-0.02 (edge)
Third downs7/155/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)410 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1922 (edge)
Sacks taken43 (edge)
Turnovers31 (edge)

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

23/35, 234 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

8.5 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

23/29, 226 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

14.3 expected points added · +15.9% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

17 att, 91 yds, 1 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

D'Ernest JohnsonRB

6 att, 28 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Evan EngramTE

10/10 for 102 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Cole KmetTE

5/5 for 70 yds, 2 TD

19% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 25542:11Punt
2JAXJAX 2114768:12Field goal +3
3CHICHI 30531:33Punt
4JAXJAX 216223:11Punt
5CHICHI 198773:46Touchdown +7
6JAXJAX 43561:41Fumble
7CHICHI 58544:16Interception
8JAXJAX 29482:02Punt
9CHICHI 1511852:55Touchdown +7
10JAXJAX 27200:13End of half
11JAXJAX 342240:20Fumble
12CHIJAX 418463:18Touchdown +7
13JAXJAX 3013805:20Touchdown +7
14CHICHI 3012556:06Touchdown +7
15JAXJAX 354-31:21Interception
16CHIJAX 364361:06Touchdown +7
17JAXJAX 3019705:31Touchdown +6
18CHIJAX 449163:37Missed field goal
19JAXJAX 334-41:29Punt
20CHICHI 15301:52End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence23/352342138.5
Mac Jones1/16001-1.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Ernest Johnson6284.701.7
Tank Bigsby7243.40-0.2
Trevor Lawrence4174.30-0.5
Travis Etienne3-1-0.30-2.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Evan Engram1010102029%-0.1
Gabe Davis5845223%7.3
Christian Kirk3639017%0.5
Brian Thomas3627017%-0.4
D'Ernest Johnson221606%0.6
Brenton Strange121106%0.1
Travis Etienne01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ventrell Miller720.000
Devin Lloyd350.000
Ronald Darby620.000
Andre Cisco340.011
Montaric Brown420.000
Chad Muma220.000
Antonio Johnson130.000
Esezi Otomewo020.500
Darnell Savage200.000
Davon Hamilton200.000

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams23/2922641314.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Andre Swift17915.410.8
Caleb Williams45614.004.2
Roschon Johnson581.60-2.3
Tyson Bagent3-3-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Cole Kmet5570219%6.9
Keenan Allen5541219%10.6
Rome Odunze224008%2.7
D'Andre Swift4428015%0.2
Roschon Johnson2325012%2.8
D.J. Moore4520019%-3.3
Marcedes Lewis11204%0.1
Gerald Everett01004%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
T.J. Edwards150.001
Kevin Byard330.001
Jaylon Jones510.000
Tremaine Edmunds320.001
Kyler Gordon320.000
Elijah Hicks130.001
Austin Booker210.000
Byron Cowart020.500
Montez Sweat020.500
Jaylon Johnson110.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -1.5
Closing total
44.5
JAX moneyline
-120
CHI moneyline
+100

Jaguars closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 51 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Tottenham Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
54°F, wind 3 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
JAX 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Matt Eberflus