For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 6
It turned at Q1 13:48, 3rd and 8, on Elijah Molden — 11.4 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Chargers 23–16. Biggest swing: Q1 13:48, Chargers +11.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:48 · 3rd and 8
Elijah Molden
Chargers
(13:48) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle intended for 19-M.Mims INTERCEPTED by 22-E.Molden at LAC 44. 22-E.Molden pushed ob at DEN 31 for 25 yards (77-Q.Meinerz).
11.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Chargers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Chargers won this one — 11 of 18 on third down, against Broncos at 3 of 11 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chargers won this one — -0.04 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.51 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(13:48) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle intended for 19-M.Mims INTERCEPTED by 22-E.Molden at LAC 44. 22-E.Molden pushed ob at DEN 31 for 25 yards (77-Q.Meinerz).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Cameron Dicker's 20-yard field goal with 9:28 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Cameron Dicker20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+33–08 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryBroncos
Chargers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 72 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Broncos’s 54 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Broncos 2.
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's blitz rate sent, 65.8%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 8.1 points clear of the next team along.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.4 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
DEN's early-down pass rate, 70.0%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 3 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.3 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers-0.2 ptsright on their number · +1.4 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 72 snaps
Broncos-0.5 ptsright on their number · −0.8 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 85%
Tendencies room →Chargers48.1%inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 54 early downs
Broncos70.0%leaned — passed early · +14.2 vs their 55.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.87× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 62%
Tendencies room →Chargers42.1%inside their normal wobble · +11.4 vs their 30.7%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Broncos14.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −12.7 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -56% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Chargers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 17.9%.
Broncos66.7%leaned — went for it · +37.9 vs their 28.8%, and they swing ±33.3 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 73%
Tendencies room →Chargers33.3%inside their normal wobble · +8.5 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Broncos65.8%off script — sent pressure · +31.9 vs their 33.9%, and they swing ±15.4 week to week (+2.07× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 38%
Tendencies room →Chargers14.3%right on their number · +0.2 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Broncos15.8%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
DEN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 65.8%, 31.9 points above their season mean of 33.9% and 2.1 times their own 15.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
21/34, 237 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
8.1 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
19/33, 216 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-3.5 expected points added · -6.0% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
4/6 for 53 yds, 1 TD
19% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kimani Vidal banked 7.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 20.7 | +4.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/33, 216 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 61 yd |
| J.K. DobbinsRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.2 | +0.6 | 73% | 66% | 6% | 0% | 25 car, 96 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 6 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Featured Receiver | 15.3 | +5.7 | 85% | 88% | 19% | 25% | 4/6, 53 yd, 1 TD |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 13.7 | −4.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/34, 237 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 2 yd |
| Kimani VidalRB | 13.1 | +7.0 | 24% | 34% | 6% | 7% | 4 car, 11 yd · 2/2, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| Devaughn VeleWR · Featured Receiver | 11.8 | +2.9 | 62% | 69% | 19% | 20% | 4/6, 78 yd |
| Troy FranklinWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.6 | +4.6 | 65% | 67% | 9% | 12% | 1 car, 5 yd · 2/3, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| Ladd McConkeyWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.3 | −5.6 | 63% | 82% | 26% | 36% | 4/8, 43 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | −0.6 | 67% | 71% | 16% | 2% | 4/5, 26 yd |
| Simi FehokoWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | −0.9 | 51% | 50% | 13% | 28% | 2/4, 44 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | −1.1 | 55% | 58% | 10% | 11% | 2/3, 38 yd |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −1.4 | 41% | 47% | 13% | 0% | 1 car, 0 yd · 3/4, 22 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 4.6 | −5.7 | 67% | 74% | 19% | 5% | 6 car, 23 yd · 3/6, 13 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 4.5 | +0.4 | 25% | 21% | 6% | 0% | 3 car, 8 yd · 2/2, 17 yd |
| Derius DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −1.7 | 24% | 16% | 6% | 14% | 2 car, 14 yd · 1/2, 8 yd |
| Lucas KrullTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −2.4 | 60% | 71% | 13% | 4% | 2/4, 11 yd |
| Stone SmarttTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.5 | 13% | 13% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.5 | 35% | 24% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Nate AdkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 27% | 21% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Audric EstimeRB | 1.3 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Hassan HaskinsRB | 0.5 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Marvin MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.3 | 31% | 36% | 9% | 32% | 0/3, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:48) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle intended for 19-M.Mims INTERCEPTED by 22-E.Molden at LAC 44. 22-E.Molden pushed ob at DEN 31 for 25 yards (77-Q.Meinerz).
Q1 13:48 · Broncos · 3rd & 8 at DEN 32 · gained nothing · -4.51 EP · −10.8% win probability
164 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 95 yards from the DEN 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Chargers3
Broncos0Chargers9Broncos0Chargers10Broncos0Chargers13Broncos0Chargers19Broncos0Chargers20Broncos0Chargers23Broncos0Chargers23Broncos6Chargers23Broncos7Chargers23Broncos13Chargers23Broncos16Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 21/34 | 237 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +8.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 25 | 96 | 3.8 | 1 | −2.2 |
| Derius Davis | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Kimani Vidal |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simi Fehoko | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 13% | +2.9 |
| Ladd McConkey | 4 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alohi Gilman | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Denzel Perryman | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daiyan Henley |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 19/33 | 216 | 2 | 1 | 2 | −3.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_06_LAC_DEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 37; the game landed 39 — over by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 4 |
| 11 |
| 2.8 |
| 0 |
| −0.5 |
| Hassan Haskins | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| +1.2 |
| Kimani Vidal | 2 | 2 | 40 | 1 | 6% | +3.1 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 10% | +4.4 |
| Will Dissly | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 16% | −0.0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 13% | +1.6 |
| Stone Smartt | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +1.9 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −0.2 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Junior Colson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarheeb Still | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cam Hart | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| A.J. Finley | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Teair Tart | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 6 | 61 | 10.2 | 0 | +6.2 |
| Javonte Williams | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 | −5.7 |
| Audric Estime | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devaughn Vele | 4 | 6 | 78 | 0 | 19% | +6.6 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 6 | 53 | 1 | 19% | +4.2 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 3 | 31 | 1 | 9% | +2.1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6% | +0.4 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 19% | −3.2 |
| Lucas Krull | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 13% | −0.9 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Marvin Mims | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −8.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jones | 11 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cody Barton | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Strnad | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Moss | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Locke | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Allen | 3 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Roach | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mitchell Fraboni | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
