2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · Empower Field at Mile High

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

Denver Broncos

LAC -3 ✓O 37 ✓Chargers closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.

Los Angeles Chargers 23–16. Biggest swing: Q1 13:48, LAC +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:48LAC 0 — DEN 0DEN ball · 3rd & 8LAC 63%

(13:48) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle intended for 19-M.Mims INTERCEPTED by 22-E.Molden at LAC 44. 22-E.Molden pushed ob at DEN 31 for 25 yards (77-Q.Meinerz).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:48LAC +11% win prob(13:48) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle intended for 19-M.Mims INTERCEPTED by 22-E.Molden at LAC 44. 22-E.Molden pushed ob at DEN 31 for 25 yards (77-Q.Meinerz).
Q1 · 7:05DEN +8% win prob(7:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 5-J.Palmer pushed ob at LAC 42 for 24 yards (22-B.Jones).
Q2 · 4:38LAC +6% win prob(4:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to LAC 44 for 1 yard (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by LAC-90-T.Tart at LAC 44.
Q1 · 5:06DEN +5% win prob(5:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 30-K.Vidal for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:28LAC Field goal
(9:28) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: LAC 3 — DEN 0
Q1 · 5:06LAC Touchdown
(5:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 30-K.Vidal for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 10 — DEN 0
Q2 · 6:24LAC Field goal
(6:24) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: LAC 13 — DEN 0
Q2 · 1:03LAC Touchdown
(1:03) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 20 — DEN 0
Q3 · 2:39LAC Field goal
(2:39) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: LAC 23 — DEN 0
Q4 · 10:11DEN Touchdown
(10:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 16-T.Franklin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 23 — DEN 7
Q4 · 5:27DEN Touchdown
(5:27) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Score after this play: LAC 23 — DEN 13
Q4 · 1:03DEN Field goal
(1:03) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: LAC 23 — DEN 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Broncos
Offensive plays	72	54
Total yards	353 (edge)	316
Yards per play	4.9	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.09 (edge)	-0.06
Success rate	43% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	53%	78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19 (edge)	0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04 (edge)	-0.51
Third downs	11/18 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

21/34, 237 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.1 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

19/33, 216 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-3.5 expected points added · -6.0% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

J.K. DobbinsRB

25 att, 96 yds, 1 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Bo NixQB

6 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

6.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Devaughn VeleWR

4/6 for 78 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

4/6 for 53 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 30	4	2	1:23	Interception
2	LAC	DEN 31	9	39	4:11	Field goal +3
3	DEN	DEN 34	5	9	1:34	Punt
4	LAC	LAC 17	7	83	2:53	Touchdown +7
5	DEN	DEN 30	8	15	3:09	Punt
6	LAC	LAC 9	20	69	10:29	Field goal +3
7	DEN	DEN 30	6	26	1:49	Fumble
8	LAC	LAC 44	12	56	3:32	Touchdown +7
9	DEN	DEN 30	5	8	0:52	Punt
10	LAC	LAC 26	1	0	0:08	End of half
11	LAC	LAC 30	8	12	4:01	Punt
12	DEN	DEN 18	8	38	3:26	Punt
13	LAC	LAC 9	11	63	4:58	Field goal +3
14	DEN	DEN 30	5	-10	1:51	Punt
15	LAC	DEN 45	4	3	1:35	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 5	9	95	4:03	Touchdown +7
17	LAC	LAC 30	5	1	1:41	Punt
18	DEN	DEN 36	9	64	3:03	Touchdown +6
19	LAC	LAC 30	8	27	2:56	Fumble
20	DEN	DEN 4	8	69	1:27	Field goal +3
21	LAC	DEN 47	3	0	0:59	End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 95 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	21/34	237	1	0	3	8.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
J.K. Dobbins	25	96	3.8	1	-2.2
Derius Davis	2	14	7.0	0	0.9
Kimani Vidal	4	11	2.8	0	-0.5
Hassan Haskins	2	5	2.5	0	1.1
Justin Herbert	4	2	0.5	0	-2.2
Quentin Johnston	1	0	0.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Simi Fehoko	2	4	44	0	13%	2.9
Ladd McConkey	4	8	43	0	26%	1.2
Kimani Vidal	2	2	40	1	6%	3.1
Josh Palmer	2	3	38	0	10%	4.4
Will Dissly	4	5	26	0	16%	-0.0
Quentin Johnston	3	4	22	0	13%	1.6
Stone Smartt	1	1	10	0	3%	1.9
Derius Davis	1	2	8	0	6%	-0.2
J.K. Dobbins	2	2	6	0	6%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Alohi Gilman	5	4	1.0	0	1
Denzel Perryman	4	1	0.0	0	0
Daiyan Henley	2	2	0.0	0	0
Junior Colson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tarheeb Still	2	1	0.0	0	1
Cam Hart	2	1	0.0	0	0
Derwin James	1	2	0.0	0	2
A.J. Finley	1	1	0.0	0	0
Elijah Molden	1	1	0.0	1	1
Teair Tart	1	1	0.0	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bo Nix	19/33	216	2	1	2	-3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bo Nix	6	61	10.2	6.2
Javonte Williams	6	23	3.8	-5.7
Audric Estime	2	13	6.5	0.1
Jaleel McLaughlin	3	8	2.7	-0.4
Troy Franklin	1	5	5.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Devaughn Vele	4	6	78	0	19%	6.6
Courtland Sutton	4	6	53	1	19%	4.2
Troy Franklin	2	3	31	1	9%	2.1
Jaleel McLaughlin	2	2	17	0	6%	0.4
Javonte Williams	3	6	13	0	19%	-3.2
Lucas Krull	2	4	11	0	13%	-0.9
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	1	1	8	0	3%	0.4
Nate Adkins	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.1
Marvin Mims	0	3	0	0	9%	-8.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Brandon Jones	11	1	0.0	1
Cody Barton	1	7	0.0	0
Justin Strnad	5	2	1.0	0
Riley Moss	5	1	0.0	1
Jonathon Cooper	4	2	0.5	0
P.J. Locke	4	2	0.0	0
Zach Allen	3	3	0.5	0
Malcolm Roach	1	2	0.0	1
Mitchell Fraboni	1	1	0.0	0
Ja'Quan McMillian	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -3
Closing total: 37
LAC moneyline: -155
DEN moneyline: +130

Chargers closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 37; the game landed 39 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 65°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Tra Blake
Rest: LAC 14 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Jim Harbaugh vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.