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2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · Empower Field at Mile High
23
16
Los Angeles Chargers 23–16. Biggest swing: Q1 13:48, LAC +11% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(13:48) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle intended for 19-M.Mims INTERCEPTED by 22-E.Molden at LAC 44. 22-E.Molden pushed ob at DEN 31 for 25 yards (77-Q.Meinerz).
How the points landed
(9:28) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: LAC 3 — DEN 0(5:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 30-K.Vidal for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 10 — DEN 0(6:24) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: LAC 13 — DEN 0(1:03) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 20 — DEN 0(2:39) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: LAC 23 — DEN 0(10:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 16-T.Franklin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 23 — DEN 7(5:27) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Score after this play: LAC 23 — DEN 13(1:03) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: LAC 23 — DEN 16Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Chargers | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 72 | 54 |
| Total yards | 353 (edge) | 316 |
| Yards per play | 4.9 | 5.9 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.09 (edge) | -0.06 |
| Success rate | 43% (edge) | 43% |
| Dropback rate | 53% | 78% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.19 (edge) | 0.07 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.04 (edge) | -0.51 |
| Third downs | 11/18 (edge) | 3/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 | 9 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 20 (edge) | 18 |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 2 |
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
21/34, 237 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
8.1 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
19/33, 216 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-3.5 expected points added · -6.0% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
4/6 for 53 yds, 1 TD
19% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | DEN 30 | 4 | 2 | 1:23 | Interception | |
| 2 | LAC | DEN 31 | 9 | 39 | 4:11 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | DEN | DEN 34 | 5 | 9 | 1:34 | Punt | |
| 4 | LAC | LAC 17 | 7 | 83 | 2:53 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | DEN | DEN 30 | 8 | 15 | 3:09 | Punt | |
| 6 | LAC | LAC 9 | 20 | 69 | 10:29 | Field goal +3 | |
| 7 | DEN | DEN 30 | 6 | 26 | 1:49 | Fumble | |
| 8 | LAC | LAC 44 | 12 | 56 | 3:32 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | DEN | DEN 30 | 5 | 8 | 0:52 | Punt | |
| 10 | LAC | LAC 26 | 1 | 0 | 0:08 | End of half | |
| 11 | LAC | LAC 30 | 8 | 12 | 4:01 | Punt | |
| 12 | DEN | DEN 18 | 8 | 38 | 3:26 | Punt | |
| 13 | LAC | LAC 9 | 11 | 63 | 4:58 | Field goal +3 | |
| 14 | DEN | DEN 30 | 5 | -10 | 1:51 | Punt | |
| 15 | LAC | DEN 45 | 4 | 3 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 16 | DEN | DEN 5 | 9 | 95 | 4:03 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 17 | LAC | LAC 30 | 5 | 1 | 1:41 | Punt | |
| 18 | DEN | DEN 36 | 9 | 64 | 3:03 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 19 | LAC | LAC 30 | 8 | 27 | 2:56 | Fumble | |
| 20 | DEN | DEN 4 | 8 | 69 | 1:27 | Field goal +3 | |
| 21 | LAC | DEN 47 | 3 | 0 | 0:59 | End of game |
8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 95 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 21/34 | 237 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 25 | 96 | 3.8 | 1 | -2.2 |
| Derius Davis | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Kimani Vidal | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Hassan Haskins | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 1.1 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | -2.2 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simi Fehoko | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 13% | 2.9 |
| Ladd McConkey | 4 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 26% | 1.2 |
| Kimani Vidal | 2 | 2 | 40 | 1 | 6% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alohi Gilman | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Denzel Perryman | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daiyan Henley | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Junior Colson |
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 37; the game landed 39 — over by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3.1 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 10% | 4.4 |
| Will Dissly | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 16% | -0.0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 13% | 1.6 |
| Stone Smartt | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | 1.9 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | -0.2 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | -0.8 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tarheeb Still | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cam Hart | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| A.J. Finley | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Teair Tart | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6.2 |
| Javonte Williams | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 | -5.7 |
| Audric Estime | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devaughn Vele | 4 | 6 | 78 | 0 | 19% | 6.6 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 6 | 53 | 1 | 19% | 4.2 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 3 | 31 | 1 | 9% | 2.1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6% | 0.4 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 19% | -3.2 |
| Lucas Krull | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 13% | -0.9 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | 0.4 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | -0.1 |
| Marvin Mims | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9% | -8.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jones | 11 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cody Barton | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Strnad | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Moss | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Locke | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Allen | 3 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Roach | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mitchell Fraboni | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
