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2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
ChargersLos Angeles23
BY 7final margin
BroncosDenver16
Los Angeles Chargers 23 at Denver Broncos 16. Final.
Chargers -3 ✓O 37 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 6
Los Angeles Chargers 23, Broncos 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 13:48, 3rd and 8, on Elijah Molden — 11.4 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:48 · 3rd and 8
Elijah Molden
Chargers
(13:48) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle intended for 19-M.Mims INTERCEPTED by 22-E.Molden at LAC 44. 22-E.Molden pushed ob at DEN 31 for 25 yards (77-Q.Meinerz).
Chargers closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Los Angeles Chargers 23–16. Biggest swing: Q1 13:48, Chargers +11.4% win probability on one snap.
11.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh PalmerChargersQ1 7:05(7:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 5-J.Palmer pushed ob at LAC 42 for 24 yards (22-B.Jones).
7.6pts
Javonte WilliamsChargersQ2 4:38(4:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to LAC 44 for 1 yard (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by LAC-90-T.Tart at LAC 44.
5.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Chargers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Chargers won this one — 11 of 18 on third down, against Broncos at 3 of 11 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chargers won this one — -0.04 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.51 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Chargers166 of 175 plays carry both curves
(13:48) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle intended for 19-M.Mims INTERCEPTED by 22-E.Molden at LAC 44. 22-E.Molden pushed ob at DEN 31 for 25 yards (77-Q.Meinerz).
Swing −11.4 for BroncosExpected points −4.51 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 14 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:48LAC +11% win prob(13:48) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle intended for 19-M.Mims INTERCEPTED by 22-E.Molden at LAC 44. 22-E.Molden pushed ob at DEN 31 for 25 yards (77-Q.Meinerz).
1st · 7:05DEN +8% win prob(7:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 5-J.Palmer pushed ob at LAC 42 for 24 yards (22-B.Jones).
2nd · 4:38LAC +6% win prob(4:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to LAC 44 for 1 yard (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by LAC-90-T.Tart at LAC 44.
1st · 5:06DEN +5% win prob(5:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 30-K.Vidal for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:58LAC +4% win prob(10:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-L.McConkey to DEN 2 for 3 yards (6-P.Locke). PENALTY on LAC-5-J.Palmer, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 5 - No Play.
2nd · 13:02DEN +3% win prob(13:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 87-S.Fehoko to 50 for 14 yards (21-R.Moss).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cameron Dicker's 20-yard field goal with 9:28 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:28Cameron Dicker·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+33–0
3rd2:39Cameron Dicker·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+323–0
4th10:11Troy Franklin·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+723–7
4th5:27Courtland Sutton·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix · two-point no good+623–13
4th1:03Wil Lutz·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+323–16
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryBroncos
Chargers5–4Broncos
353Total yards316
4.9Yards per play5.9
43%Success rate43%
61%Third-down rate27%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays9
20First downs18
3Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Chargers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Chargers: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.06Broncos: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Chargers: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.07Broncos: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Chargers: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.51Broncos: −0.51 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 72 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Broncos’s 54 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Broncos 2.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DEN's blitz rate sent, 65.8%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 8.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 57.7% in week 2.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 5.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.4 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DEN's early-down pass rate, 70.0%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 62.0% in week 1.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 5.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
high through week 6Against their seasonFourth Down
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 3 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +0.2 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Broncos15.8%
right on their number · −3.6 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteDEN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 65.8%, 31.9 points above their season mean of 33.9% and 2.1 times their own 15.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Nix pass−11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:48) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle intended for 19-M.Mims INTERCEPTED by 22-E.Molden at LAC 44. 22-E.Molden pushed ob at DEN 31 for 25 yards (77-Q.Meinerz).
Q1 13:48 · Broncos · 3rd & 8 at DEN 32 · gained nothing · -4.51 EP · −10.8% win probability
164 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 95 yards from the DEN 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
46%
Yards
666
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.0370%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.3261%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15-0.2147%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10-0.2830%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0263%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0443%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Chargers3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 32
Chargers3Broncos0
Field goal10 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Broncos 2
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 34 to the Broncos 43
Chargers9Broncos0
Chargers10Broncos0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Broncos 38
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 45
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 9 to the Chargers 11
2nd quarter46 plays
Chargers13Broncos0
Field goal18 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 7
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Chargers 45
Chargers19Broncos0
Chargers20Broncos0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 44 to the Broncos 4
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 38
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 42
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Chargers 44
Chargers23Broncos0
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 9 to the Broncos 28
Punt5 plays
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter52 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Broncos 45 to the Broncos 42
Chargers23Broncos6
Chargers23Broncos7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 5 to the Chargers 2
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 31
Chargers23Broncos13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Chargers 15
Punt13 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Broncos 36
Chargers23Broncos16
Field goal8 plays, from the Broncos 4 to the Chargers 22
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -3
Closing total
37
Chargers moneyline
-155
Broncos moneyline
+130
Chargers closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 37; the game landed 39 — over by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 67°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the north; clear.
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
Chargers 14 days · Broncos 7 days
Coaches
Jim Harbaugh vs Sean Payton
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 8:10LAC +3% win prob(8:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right [52-K.Mack].
4th · 5:27DEN +3% win prob(5:27) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
