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Pittsburgh Steelers 32 at Las Vegas Raiders 13. Final.
Steelers -3.5 ✓O 36.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 6
Pittsburgh Steelers 32, Raiders 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 2:40, 2nd and 7, on Dylan Laube — 20.5 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:40 · 2nd and 7
Dylan Laube
Steelers
(2:40) 23-D.Laube right end to LV 28 for -2 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt), RECOVERED by PIT-95-K.Benton at LV 30.
Dome
Steelers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 19.
Pittsburgh Steelers 32–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 2:40, Steelers +20.5% win probability on one snap.
20.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Calvin AustinSteelersQ2 8:38(8:38) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass deep left to 19-C.Austin to PIT 39 for 20 yards (39-N.Hobbs).
7.7pts
Unnamed on the sheetSteelersQ3 11:07(11:07) 6-A.Cole punt is BLOCKED by 49-J.Moon, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, recovered by LV-29-C.Smith at LV 13. 29-C.Smith to LV 9 for -4 yards (31-B.Bishop).
7.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.58 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Raiders at 2 chunk plays.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 3 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — +0.10 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.24 expected points per snap.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Steelers160 of 168 plays carry both curves
(2:40) 23-D.Laube right end to LV 28 for -2 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt), RECOVERED by PIT-95-K.Benton at LV 30.
Swing −20.5 for RaidersExpected points −4.67 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 18 points higher than the market did.play 66
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:40PIT +21% win prob(2:40) 23-D.Laube right end to LV 28 for -2 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt), RECOVERED by PIT-95-K.Benton at LV 30.
2nd · 8:38LV +8% win prob(8:38) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass deep left to 19-C.Austin to PIT 39 for 20 yards (39-N.Hobbs).
3rd · 11:07PIT +8% win prob(11:07) 6-A.Cole punt is BLOCKED by 49-J.Moon, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, recovered by LV-29-C.Smith at LV 13. 29-C.Smith to LV 9 for -4 yards (31-B.Bishop).
2nd · 0:40LV +8% win prob(:40) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 2-J.Fields scrambles left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:32PIT +6% win prob(11:32) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short right to 30-J.Warren to LV 42 for -3 yards (5-D.Deablo, 91-M.Butler).
2nd · 6:04PIT +6% win prob(6:04) 2-J.Fields sacked at PIT 41 for -13 yards (5-D.Deablo).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Fields's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 0:40 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:24Chris Boswell·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+33–0
4th3:59Chris Boswell·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+332–13
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryRaiders
Steelers5–2Raiders
295Total yards275
4.8Yards per play4.5
41%Success rate44%
31%Third-down rate18%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays2
17First downs17
3Sacks taken1
0Turnovers3
The read
Steelers ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Steelers: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.24Raiders: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Steelers: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.09Raiders: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Steelers: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.58Raiders: −0.58 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 61 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Raiders’s 61 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 5, Raiders 3.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's sack or hit rate, 7.1%, is past their previous low of 13.3% in week 5 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.5 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Raiders15.2%
right on their number · +2.6 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NotePIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 7.1%, 9.5 points below their season mean of 16.6% and 1.2 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
66Mason McCormickG · Every snap100%67 snaps
77Broderick JonesT · Every snap100%67 snaps
2Justin FieldsQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
65Dan Moore Jr.T · Full-time88%59 snaps
88Pat FreiermuthTE · Full-time87%58 snaps
73Isaac SeumaloG · Full-time87%58 snaps
80Darnell WashingtonTE · Heavy rotation73%49 snaps
54Zach FrazierC · Heavy rotation72%48 snaps
14George PickensWR · Heavy rotation67%45 snaps
11Van JeffersonWR · Heavy rotation64%43 snaps
22Najee HarrisRB · Rotational46%31 snaps
30Jaylen WarrenRB · Rotational37%25 snaps
83Connor HeywardTE · Rotational36%24 snaps
19Calvin Austin IIIWR · Rotational36%24 snaps
62Ryan McCollumC · Rotational28%19 snaps
13Scott MillerWR · Situational21%14 snaps
74Spencer AndersonT · Situational16%11 snaps
67Calvin AndersonT · Situational13%9 snaps
35Jonathan WardRB · Situational9%6 snaps
10Roman WilsonWR · Situational7%5 snaps
33Aaron ShampklinRB · Situational6%4 snaps
39Minkah FitzpatrickFS · Situational3%2 snaps
—Rodney WilliamsTE · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Max ScharpingGNick HerbigOLBAlex HighsmithOLBKyle AllenQBCordarrelle PattersonRBDamontae KazeeSSMyCole PruittTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Russell WilsonQBRod WilliamsTE
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
—Delmar GlazeT · Every snap100%63 snaps
58Jackson Powers-JohnsonG · Every snap100%63 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%63 snaps
68Andre JamesC · Every snap100%63 snaps
12Aidan O'ConnellQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
11Tre TuckerWR · Full-time95%60 snaps
89Brock BowersTE · Heavy rotation79%50 snaps
61Jordan MeredithG · Heavy rotation68%43 snaps
22Alexander MattisonRB · Heavy rotation68%43 snaps
19DJ TurnerWR · Heavy rotation67%42 snaps
84Harrison BryantTE · Heavy rotation57%36 snaps
81Alex BachmanWR · Rotational43%27 snaps
83Kristian WilkersonWR · Rotational43%27 snaps
66Dylan ParhamG · Rotational32%20 snaps
8Ameer AbdullahRB · Rotational30%19 snaps
—John Samuel ShenkerTE · Situational13%8 snaps
75Andrus PeatG · Situational3%2 snaps
23Dylan LaubeRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Sam WebbCBJanarius RobinsonDETommy EichenbergMLBZamir WhiteRBThayer Munford Jr.TDavante AdamsWRJakobi MeyersWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Laube right−21% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:40) 23-D.Laube right end to LV 28 for -2 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt), RECOVERED by PIT-95-K.Benton at LV 30.
Q2 2:40 · Raiders · 2nd & 7 at LV 30 · gained nothing · -4.67 EP · −20.8% win probability
158 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 80 yards from the PIT 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
44%
Yards
568
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.1471%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.3971%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.1445%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.2270%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR17+0.1624%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Steelers3Raiders0
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Raiders 34
Steelers3Raiders6
Steelers3Raiders7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Steelers 2
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 31
The period ended4 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Steelers 40
2nd quarter47 plays
Steelers6Raiders7
Field goal8 plays, from the Steelers 42 to the Raiders 31
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 39
Punt12 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Raiders 46
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Raiders 16 to the Raiders 30
Steelers12Raiders7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 3
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 48
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 41
Steelers15Raiders7
Field goal4 plays, from the Raiders 9 to the Raiders 6
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 34
Steelers21Raiders7
Steelers22Raiders7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Raiders 36
The period ended10 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Steelers 6
4th quarter48 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Steelers 11 to the Steelers 1
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 11 to the Raiders 48
Intercepted3 plays
Steelers28Raiders7
Steelers29Raiders7
Touchdown2 plays
Steelers29Raiders13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Steelers 9
Steelers32Raiders13
Field goal9 plays, from the Raiders 36 to the Raiders 3
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 35
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Raiders 24
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -3.5
Closing total
36.5
Steelers moneyline
-180
Raiders moneyline
+150
Steelers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 19.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 45 — over by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
Steelers 7 days · Raiders 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Antonio Pierce
2nd · 9:43
PIT +6% win prob
(9:43) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris right tackle to PIT 29 for 5 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on PIT-80-D.Washington, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 24 - No Play.
3rd · 4:33LV +6% win prob(4:33) 22-N.Harris left end for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
