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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:03 AM ET · 16 to play
San Francisco 49ers 36 at Seattle Seahawks 24. Final.
49ers -3.5 ✓O 49 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 6
San Francisco 49ers 36, Seahawks 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 13:42, 1st and 10, on Deebo Samuel — 14.0 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:42 · 1st and 10
Deebo Samuel
49ers
(13:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 1-D.Samuel for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 12.
San Francisco 49ers 36–24. Biggest swing: Q2 13:42, 49ers +14.0% win probability on one snap.
14.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DK MetcalfSeahawksQ1 13:33(13:33) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf pushed ob at SF 30 for 30 yards (0-R.Green).
11.3pts
Renardo Green49ersQ4 7:56(7:56) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 0-R.Green at SEA 35. 0-R.Green ran ob at SEA 15 for 20 yards (87-N.Fant).
9.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 3 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 2 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.23 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.17 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on 49ers179 of 189 plays carry both curves
(13:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 1-D.Samuel for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −14.0 for SeahawksExpected points −6.30 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 9 points higher than the market did.play 40
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:42SEA +14% win prob(13:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 1-D.Samuel for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:33SEA +11% win prob(13:33) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf pushed ob at SF 30 for 30 yards (0-R.Green).
4th · 7:56SF +10% win prob(7:56) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 0-R.Green at SEA 35. 0-R.Green ran ob at SEA 15 for 20 yards (87-N.Fant).
1st · 7:13SEA +9% win prob(7:13) 24-J.Mason left guard to SEA 28 for 38 yards (53-B.Mafe).
1st · 11:33SF +6% win prob(11:33) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 6-M.Mustapha [97-N.Bosa] at SF 2. 6-M.Mustapha ran ob at SF 3 for 1 yard.
4th · 1:39SEA +5% win prob(1:39) 31-I.Guerendo right tackle to SEA 5 for 76 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matthew Wright's 25-yard field goal with 4:02 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:02Matthew Wright·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.PepperLead never changed again+33–0
49ers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.3449ers: +0.34 expected points added per play
+0.01Seahawks: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.4549ers: +0.45 expected points added per play
+0.09Seahawks: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.2349ers: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.17Seahawks: −0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 61 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 72 at 72%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 6, Seahawks 4.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's early-down pass rate, 39.6%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 1.9 points clear of the next team along.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.5 points.
SF's blitz rate sent turned over: 36.4% in week 5 against 9.6% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
SEA's pass rate over expected turned over: +11.7 pts in week 5 against −5.0 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
72 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Seahawks12.9%
inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteSEA's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 9.7%, 16.9 points below their season mean of 26.6% and 1.3 times their own 12.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Purdy pass+12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(13:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 1-D.Samuel for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 13:42 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SF 24 · gained 76 · +6.30 EP · +11.8% win probability
177 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 184. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 94 yards from the SEA 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
47%
Yards
841
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR63+0.0676%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR28+0.7043%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.2458%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.4450%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
49ers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Seahawks 36 to the 49ers 25
49ers3Seahawks0
Field goal13 plays, from the 49ers 3 to the Seahawks 7
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 10 to the Seahawks 25
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 33
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Seahawks 37
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
49ers9Seahawks0
49ers10Seahawks0
Touchdown2 plays
Fumble lost1 play
49ers13Seahawks0
Field goal4 plays, from the Seahawks 29 to the Seahawks 23
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 37
49ers16Seahawks0
Field goal14 plays, from the 49ers 6 to the Seahawks 13
49ers16Seahawks3
Field goal16 plays, from the Seahawks 29 to the 49ers 2
3rd quarter39 plays
49ers22Seahawks3
49ers23Seahawks3
Touchdown11 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Seahawks 10
49ers23Seahawks9
49ers23Seahawks10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 31 to midfield
49ers23Seahawks16
49ers23Seahawks17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Seahawks 6 to the 49ers 1
The period ended5 plays
4th quarter66 plays
Punt1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 18 to the Seahawks 30
Punt10 plays, from the 49ers 12 to the Seahawks 40
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Seahawks 3 to the Seahawks 25
49ers29Seahawks17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 15 to the Seahawks 9
49ers29Seahawks23
49ers29Seahawks24
Touchdown19 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the 49ers 9
49ers35Seahawks24
49ers36Seahawks24
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 19 to the Seahawks 5
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Seahawks 49 to the 49ers 39
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
