For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2024 Week 6 · Thu, Oct 10, 2024 · Lumen Field

San Francisco 49ersWinner

36

Seattle Seahawks

24

SF -3.5 ✓O 49 ✓

San Francisco 49ers 36–24. Biggest swing: Q2 13:42, SEA +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SEA ↑SF ↓
Q2 · 13:42SF 9 — SEA 0SF ball · 1st & 10SF 72%

(13:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 1-D.Samuel for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 13:42SEA +14% win prob(13:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 1-D.Samuel for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 13:33SEA +11% win prob(13:33) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf pushed ob at SF 30 for 30 yards (0-R.Green).
  3. Q4 · 7:56SF +10% win prob(7:56) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 0-R.Green at SEA 35. 0-R.Green ran ob at SEA 15 for 20 yards (87-N.Fant).
  4. Q1 · 7:13SEA +9% win prob(7:13) 24-J.Mason left guard to SEA 28 for 38 yards (53-B.Mafe).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 4:02SF Field goal

    (4:02) 35-M.Wright 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SF 3 — SEA 0
  2. Q2 · 13:42SF Touchdown

    (13:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 1-D.Samuel for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 10 — SEA 0
  3. Q2 · 11:50SF Field goal

    (11:50) 35-M.Wright 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SF 13 — SEA 0
  4. Q2 · 2:36SF Field goal

    (2:36) 35-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SF 16 — SEA 0
  5. Q2 · 0:03SEA Field goal

    (:03) 5-J.Myers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SF 16 — SEA 3
  6. Q3 · 10:12SF Touchdown

    (10:12) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 23 — SEA 3
  7. Q3 · 10:07SEA Touchdown

    35-M.Wright kicks 62 yards from SF 35 to SEA 3. 1-L.Shenault for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 23 — SEA 10
  8. Q3 · 1:28SEA Touchdown

    (1:28) 9-K.Walker left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 23 — SEA 17
  9. Q4 · 6:24SF Touchdown

    (6:24) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: SF 29 — SEA 17
  10. Q4 · 1:49SEA Touchdown

    (1:49) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 16-T.Lockett for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 29 — SEA 24
  11. Q4 · 1:20SF Touchdown

    (1:20) 44-K.Juszczyk right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 36 — SEA 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric49ersSeahawks
Offensive plays6172
Total yards484 (edge)358
Yards per play7.9 (edge)5.0
Expected points added / play0.34 (edge)0.01
Success rate52% (edge)40%
Dropback rate51%72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.45 (edge)0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.23 (edge)-0.17
Third downs5/127/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps2021 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers0 (edge)3

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

30/52, 312 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

3.7 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

18/28, 255 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

11.7 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Isaac GuerendoRB

10 att, 99 yds, 0 TD

4.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Jordan MasonRB

9 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

3/5 for 102 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

4/8 for 65 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SEASEA 367393:34Interception
2SFSF 313907:28Field goal +3
3SEASEA 108152:15Punt
4SFSF 24481:31Punt
5SEASEA 29481:30Punt
6SFSF 242760:12Touchdown +7
7SEA—100:07Fumble
8SFSEA 29461:36Field goal +3
9SEASEA 305121:31Punt
10SFSF 614647:43Field goal +3
11SEASEA 2912592:33Field goal +3
12SFSF 3011704:53Touchdown +7
13SEA—200:13Defensive touchdown +7
14SFSF 316292:52Punt
15SEASEA 614945:38Touchdown +7
16SFSF 26571:33Punt
17SEASEA 186122:13Punt
18SFSF 127383:11Punt
19SEASEA 34221:41Interception
20SFSEA 154151:26Touchdown +6
21SEASEA 3017804:36Touchdown +7
22SFSF 195810:27Touchdown +7
23SEASEA 499171:06Turnover on downs
24SFSF 39100:11End of game

11 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 94 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy18/2825530011.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isaac Guerendo10999.904.2
Jordan Mason9738.102.4
Brock Purdy4194.802.3
Patrick Taylor5163.20-2.0
Deebo Samuel4153.80-0.2
Kyle Juszczyk166.012.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Deebo Samuel35102119%5.7
George Kittle5658222%6.6
Brandon Aiyuk2437015%1.9
Jauan Jennings3527019%-1.4
Patrick Taylor111204%0.9
Kyle Juszczyk3410015%-0.7
Jordan Mason12907%0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Fred Warner550.001
George Odum420.002
Deommodore Lenoir420.001
Ji'Ayir Brown420.000
Renardo Green420.012
Robert Beal120.000
Sam Okuayinonu201.000
Dee Winters200.000
Malik Mustapha200.011
De'Vondre Campbell200.000

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith30/523121213.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Walker14322.31-3.0
Zach Charbonnet5204.00-0.2
Geno Smith100.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyler Lockett4865117%4.4
Noah Fant6663013%6.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba5953019%-0.5
DK Metcalf31148023%-5.1
Kenneth Walker8837017%0.6
Jake Bobo241808%0.3
Zach Charbonnet111502%0.8
A.J. Barner111302%0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Julian Love630.001
Tyrel Dodson330.000
Jerome Baker330.001
Boye Mafe310.000
Devon Witherspoon310.000
Johnathan Hankins220.000
Leonard Williams310.000
Jarran Reed220.000
K'Von Wallace210.000
Dre'Mont Jones110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -3.5
Closing total
49
SF moneyline
-198
SEA moneyline
+164

49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 12.

Total closed 49; the game landed 60 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
59°F, wind 10 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
SF 4 days · SEA 4 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Mike Macdonald

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.