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2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
51
27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51–27 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 4:37, NO +20% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(4:37) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 14-C.Godwin for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
(10:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 14-C.Godwin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — NO 0(8:54) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 12-C.Olave to TB 43 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith). FUMBLES (23-T.Smith), RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at TB 42. 31-A.Winfield for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 14 — NO 0(4:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 17 — NO 0(13:47) 19-B.Grupe 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: TB 17 — NO 3(13:18) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to NO 46, Center-45-Z.Triner. 22-R.Shaheed for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 17 — NO 10(9:03) 19-B.Grupe 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: TB 17 — NO 13(8:41) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short left to 16-B.Means for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 17 — NO 20(5:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 44-S.Tucker for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 24 — NO 20(2:50) 41-A.Kamara left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 24 — NO 27(4:37) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 14-C.Godwin for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 31 — NO 27(12:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: TB 37 — NO 27(5:37) 7-B.Irving left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 44 — NO 27(2:00) 44-S.Tucker left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 51 — NO 27Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Buccaneers | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 73 | 66 |
| Total yards | 594 (edge) | 303 |
| Yards per play | 8.1 (edge) | 4.6 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.22 (edge) | -0.41 |
| Success rate | 55% (edge) | 36% |
| Dropback rate | 56% | 73% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.12 (edge) | -0.43 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.34 (edge) | -0.35 |
| Third downs | 6/10 (edge) | 4/13 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 15 (edge) | 4 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 29 (edge) | 16 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 5 |
| Turnovers | 3 (edge) | 4 |
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
24/36, 325 yds, 4 TD, 3 INT
3.2 expected points added · -6.7% completion over expected
Passing · NO
22/40, 243 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-13.8 expected points added · -12.4% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | TB 26 | 10 | 79 | 4:55 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | NO | NO 30 | 4 | 32 | 1:23 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 3 | NO | NO 30 | 5 | 7 | 0:45 | Punt | |
| 4 | TB | TB 21 | 8 | 51 | 3:56 | Field goal +3 | |
| 5 | NO | NO 20 | 12 | 56 | 5:18 | Field goal +3 | |
| 6 | TB | TB 24 | 5 | 0 | 0:39 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 7 | TB | TB 25 | 3 | 8 | 0:40 | Interception | |
| 8 | NO | TB 28 | 6 | 11 | 3:24 | Field goal +3 | |
| 9 | TB | TB 28 | 3 | 0 | 0:19 | Interception | |
| 10 | NO | TB 10 | 2 | 10 | 0:04 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 11 | TB | TB 24 | 8 | 86 | 2:58 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 12 | NO | NO 30 | 9 | 70 | 2:52 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 13 | TB | TB 30 | 6 | 27 | 1:06 | Interception | |
| 14 | NO | NO 40 | 6 | 10 | 0:55 | Punt | |
| 15 | TB | TB 10 | 5 | 38 | 0:46 | End of half | |
| 16 | NO | NO 30 | 9 | 35 | 2:41 | Fumble | |
| 17 | TB | TB 8 | 4 | 6 | 1:31 | Punt | |
| 18 | NO | NO 47 | 4 | -3 | 2:10 | Punt | |
| 19 | TB | TB 8 | 8 | 92 | 4:13 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 20 | NO | NO 30 | 5 | 2 | 1:22 | Punt | |
| 21 | TB | TB 33 | 4 | 9 | 2:11 | Punt | |
| 22 | NO | NO 18 | 3 | 11 | 0:57 | Interception | |
| 23 | TB | TB 42 | 6 | 63 | 2:21 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 24 | NO | NO 29 | 5 | -5 | 0:58 | Punt | |
| 25 | TB | TB 29 | 11 | 71 | 6:03 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 26 | NO | NO 30 | 6 | 28 | 1:14 | Interception | |
| 27 | TB | TB 36 | 7 | 64 | 2:24 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 28 | NO | NO 30 | 9 | 39 | 1:55 | End of game |
11 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 92 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 24/36 | 325 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Tucker | 14 | 136 | 9.7 | 1 | 10.5 |
| Bucky Irving | 14 | 81 | 5.8 | 1 | -0.4 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 | 1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin | 11 | 13 | 125 | 2 | 36% | 7.0 |
| Sean Tucker | 3 | 3 | 56 | 1 | 8% | 6.0 |
| Ryan Miller | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 | 3% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tykee Smith | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Logan Hall |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 22/40 | 243 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -13.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 78 — over by 35.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3.3 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 17% | -5.6 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 6% | 1.9 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 11% | 1.2 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 17% | -2.5 |
| Jalen McMillan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -5.9 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tyrek Funderburk | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| K.J. Britt | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| YaYa Diaby | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Braswell | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| William Gholston | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -2.5 |
| Spencer Rattler | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Jordan Mims | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 54 | 0 | 5% | 4.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 8% | 3.3 |
| Bub Means | 5 | 8 | 45 | 1 | 21% | 1.6 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 8% | 1.8 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 21% | -2.7 |
| Mason Tipton | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5% | 0.1 |
| Jordan Mims | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 11% | -1.1 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 18% | -11.8 |
| Chris Olave | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | -9.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulson Adebo | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jordan Howden | 1 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshon Lattimore | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnathan Abram | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Demario Davis | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| J.T. Gray | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Willie Gay | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
