For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51 at New Orleans Saints 27. Final.
Buccaneers -3.5 ✓O 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51, Saints 27 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 4:37, 2nd and 5, on Chris Godwin — 20.2 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:37 · 2nd and 5
Chris Godwin
Buccaneers
(4:37) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 14-C.Godwin for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Buccaneers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51–27 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 4:37, Buccaneers +20.2% win probability on one snap.
20.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chris OlaveBuccaneersQ1 8:54(8:54) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 12-C.Olave to TB 43 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith). FUMBLES (23-T.Smith), RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at TB 42. 31-A.Winfield for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
14.6pts
Sean TuckerBuccaneersQ2 5:48(5:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 44-S.Tucker for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 15 chunk plays, against Saints at 4 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.34 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.41 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Buccaneers189 of 198 plays carry both curves
(4:37) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 14-C.Godwin for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −20.2 for SaintsExpected points −4.97 for SaintsThe model had Saints 13 points higher than the market did.play 131
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:37NO +20% win prob(4:37) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 14-C.Godwin for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:54TB +15% win prob(8:54) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 12-C.Olave to TB 43 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith). FUMBLES (23-T.Smith), RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at TB 42. 31-A.Winfield for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 5:48NO +13% win prob(5:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 44-S.Tucker for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:50TB +13% win prob(8:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 15-J.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Abram (6-W.Gay) at TB 40. 24-J.Abram to TB 10 for 30 yards (88-C.Otton).
2nd · 7:29NO +12% win prob(7:29) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 81-R.Miller pushed ob at NO 40 for 39 yards (23-M.Lattimore, 31-J.Howden).
2nd · 1:48TB +12% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 94-C.Jordan (90-B.Bresee) at NO 40. 94-C.Jordan to NO 40 for no gain (88-C.Otton).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Godwin's 55-yard touchdown catch with 4:37 left in the 3rd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Buccaneers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Buccaneers: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.41Saints: −0.41 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.12Buccaneers: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.43Saints: −0.43 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.34Buccaneers: +0.34 expected points added per play
−0.35Saints: −0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 73 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Saints’s 66 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 7, Saints 4.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's sack or hit rate, 4.9%, is past their previous low of 6.7% in week 2 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Saints4.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.2 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.9%, 7.2 points below their season mean of 12.0% and 1.0 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
69Cody MauchG · Every snap100%77 snaps
78Tristan WirfsT · Every snap100%77 snaps
70Robert HainseyC · Every snap100%77 snaps
67Luke GoedekeG · Every snap100%77 snaps
68Ben BredesonG · Every snap100%77 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%77 snaps
14Chris GodwinWR · Full-time94%72 snaps
88Cade OttonTE · Full-time81%62 snaps
17Sterling ShepardWR · Heavy rotation75%58 snaps
7Bucky IrvingRB · Heavy rotation64%49 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Heavy rotation57%44 snaps
81Ryan MillerWR · Rotational42%32 snaps
44Sean TuckerRB · Rotational38%29 snaps
87Payne DurhamTE · Rotational31%24 snaps
15Jalen McMillanWR · Situational18%14 snaps
41Ko KieftTE · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Graham BartonCRachaad WhiteRBChristian IzienSSDevin CulpTETrey PalmerWRKameron JohnsonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Royce NewmanGKyle TraskQB
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
67Landon YoungT · Every snap100%70 snaps
64Nick SaldiveriG · Every snap100%70 snaps
70Trevor PenningT · Every snap100%70 snaps
75Taliese FuagaT · Every snap100%70 snaps
18Spencer RattlerQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
61Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%70 snaps
22Rashid ShaheedWR · Full-time81%57 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonTE · Heavy rotation77%54 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Heavy rotation74%52 snaps
16Bub MeansWR · Heavy rotation71%50 snaps
11Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR · Heavy rotation51%36 snaps
87Foster MoreauTE · Rotational49%34 snaps
84Mason TiptonWR · Rotational41%29 snaps
33Jordan MimsRB · Situational23%16 snaps
46Adam PrenticeFB · Situational17%12 snaps
85Dallin HolkerTE · Situational7%5 snaps
21Jamaal WilliamsRB · Situational4%3 snaps
12Chris OlaveWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Cesar RuizCKhristian BoydDTLucas PatrickGPete WernerILBDerek CarrQBKendre MillerRBTaysom HillTE
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+23% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:37) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 14-C.Godwin for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 4:37 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 5 at TB 45 · gained 55 · +4.97 EP · +23.4% win probability
187 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 198 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 193. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 92 yards from the TB 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
198 of 198 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
198
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
48%
Yards
897
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR63+0.1457%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.4882%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.3964%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.4560%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.6611%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.2020%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
198 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
198 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Buccaneers6Saints0
Buccaneers7Saints0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Saints 4
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Buccaneers13Saints0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Buccaneers 43
Buccaneers14Saints0
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 37
Buccaneers17Saints0
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the Saints 8
The period ended10 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Buccaneers 32
2nd quarter65 plays
Buccaneers17Saints3
Field goal3 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Buccaneers 24
Buccaneers17Saints9
Touchdown7 plays
Buccaneers17Saints10
Intercepted3 plays
Buccaneers17Saints13
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Buccaneers 11
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
Buccaneers17Saints19
Buccaneers17Saints20
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Buccaneers23Saints20
Buccaneers24Saints20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Saints 36
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Buccaneers24Saints26
Buccaneers24Saints27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Buccaneers 4
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Saints 43
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Buccaneers 45
The period ended8 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Buccaneers 36
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Buccaneers 35
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 8 to the Buccaneers 15
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Buccaneers30Saints27
Buccaneers31Saints27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 8 to the Buccaneers 45
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 32
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Buccaneers 42
The period ended3 plays, from the Saints 18 to the Saints 24
4th quarter52 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Buccaneers37Saints27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 42 to the Saints 3
Punt5 plays
Buccaneers43Saints27
Buccaneers44Saints27
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Saints 1
Intercepted6 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Buccaneers 42
Buccaneers50Saints27
Buccaneers51Saints27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Saints 5
The period ended11 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Buccaneers 18
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -3.5
Closing total
42.5
Buccaneers moneyline
-175
Saints moneyline
+145
Buccaneers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 78 — over by 35.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Buccaneers 10 days · Saints 6 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Dennis Allen
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 4:01NO +12% win prob(4:01) 18-S.Rattler pass deep middle to 87-F.Moreau to TB 7 for 41 yards (31-A.Winfield; 9-J.Tryon). TB-0-Y.Diaby was injured during the play.
3rd · 12:29TB +11% win prob(12:29) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 16-B.Means to TB 30 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith). FUMBLES (23-T.Smith), RECOVERED by TB-27-Z.McCollum at TB 29. 27-Z.McCollum to TB 35 for 6 yards (61-C.McGovern). PENALTY on NO-61-C.McGovern, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at TB 35. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass incomplete short right to 16-B.Means (23-T.Smith). PENALTY on NO-61-C.McGovern, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at TB 35.
