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2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
CommandersWashington23
BY 7final margin
RavensBaltimore30
Washington Commanders 23 at Baltimore Ravens 30. Final.
Ravens -6.5 ✓O 51.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 6
Baltimore Ravens 30, Commanders 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 12:58, 2nd and 10, on Mike Sainristil — 11.9 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:58 · 2nd and 10
Mike Sainristil
Commanders
(12:58) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 13. 0-M.Sainristil to BAL 49 for 38 yards (8-L.Jackson).
Ravens closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Baltimore Ravens 30–23. Biggest swing: Q1 12:58, Commanders +11.9% win probability on one snap.
11.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Lamar JacksonCommandersQ1 1:02(1:02) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 10 for -11 yards (6-D.Fowler).
9.5pts
Mark AndrewsRavensQ2 0:57(:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Commanders at 5 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 6 of 10 on third down, against Commanders at 4 of 12 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.00 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Ravens at 1 giveaway.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Commanders161 of 172 plays carry both curves
(12:58) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 13. 0-M.Sainristil to BAL 49 for 38 yards (8-L.Jackson).
Swing −11.9 for RavensExpected points −7.12 for RavensThe model had Commanders 12 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:58WAS +12% win prob(12:58) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 13. 0-M.Sainristil to BAL 49 for 38 yards (8-L.Jackson).
2nd · 0:57BAL +10% win prob(:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:02WAS +9% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 10 for -11 yards (6-D.Fowler).
2nd · 4:21BAL +7% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:22BAL +7% win prob(7:22) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to WAS 39 for 12 yards (20-Q.Martin).
2nd · 8:03BAL +6% win prob(8:03) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 4-Z.Flowers. PENALTY on WAS-25-B.St-Juste, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at WAS 14 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mark Andrews's 13-yard touchdown catch with 0:57 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:14Austin Seibert·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+33–0
1st3:50Justin Tucker·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+33–3
4th6:23Justin Tucker·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+320–30
4th2:52Austin Seibert·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+323–30
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryRavens
Commanders1–8Ravens
305Total yards486
5.4Yards per play7.7
45%Success rate51%
33%Third-down rate60%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays10
17First downs25
3Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Commanders: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.17Ravens: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Commanders: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.35Ravens: +0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.35Commanders: −0.35 expected points added per play
+0.00Ravens: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 56 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Ravens’s 63 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Ravens 5.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's play-action rate, 46.7%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 4.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 40.0% in week 4.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
WAS's pass rate over expected turned over: −4.3 pts in week 5 against +6.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.6% in week 5 against 13.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Ravens16.7%
right on their number · +0.0 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.00× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteBAL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 46.7%, 21.2 points above their season mean of 25.4% and 1.8 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass−19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:58) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 13. 0-M.Sainristil to BAL 49 for 38 yards (8-L.Jackson).
Q1 12:58 · Ravens · 2nd & 10 at WAS 20 · gained nothing · -7.12 EP · −19.4% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 94 yards from the BAL 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
50%
Yards
789
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.0869%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.5155%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.3463%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR15-0.0113%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.3633%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR9-0.8489%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.4971%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+0.7460%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
How the play was built
A screen, play action, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.1 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Commanders 20
Commanders3Ravens0
Field goal7 plays, from the Ravens 49 to the Ravens 13
Commanders3Ravens3
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Commanders 23
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 21
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 44 to the Ravens 39
Commanders3Ravens9
Commanders3Ravens10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 7 to the Commanders 3
Commanders9Ravens10
Commanders10Ravens10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Ravens 2
Commanders10Ravens16
Commanders10Ravens17
Touchdown17 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Commanders 13
No good7 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Ravens 34
3rd quarter39 plays
Commanders13Ravens17
Field goal8 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Ravens 37
Commanders13Ravens20
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Commanders 9
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Ravens 44
Commanders13Ravens26
Commanders13Ravens27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 6 to the Commanders 7
The period ended6 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 49
4th quarter45 plays
Commanders19Ravens27
Commanders20Ravens27
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Ravens 1
Commanders20Ravens30
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Commanders 21
Commanders23Ravens30
Field goal12 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Ravens 30
The period ended12 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Commanders 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -6.5
Closing total
51.5
Commanders moneyline
+230
Ravens moneyline
-285
Ravens closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 53 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 76°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the south; clear.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Commanders 7 days · Ravens 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs John Harbaugh
4th · 12:16
BAL +6% win prob
(12:16) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:31WAS +6% win prob(4:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson Aborted. 64-T.Linderbaum FUMBLES at WAS 23, touched at WAS 25, recovered by BAL-8-L.Jackson at WAS 27.
