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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 6
It turned at Q1 12:58, 2nd and 10, on Mike Sainristil — 11.9 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Baltimore Ravens 30–23. Biggest swing: Q1 12:58, Commanders +11.9% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:58 · 2nd and 10
Mike Sainristil
Commanders
(12:58) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 13. 0-M.Sainristil to BAL 49 for 38 yards (8-L.Jackson).
11.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Commanders at 5 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 6 of 10 on third down, against Commanders at 4 of 12 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.00 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Ravens at 1 giveaway.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(12:58) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 13. 0-M.Sainristil to BAL 49 for 38 yards (8-L.Jackson).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mark Andrews's 13-yard touchdown catch with 0:57 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Mark Andrews13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Lamar JacksonLead never changed again+710–1711 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryRavens
Ravens ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 56 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Ravens’s 63 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Ravens 5.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's play-action rate, 46.7%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 4.6 points clear of the next team along.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
WAS's early-down pass rate, 67.4%, is past their previous high of 57.8% in week 1 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
WAS's pass rate over expected turned over: −4.3 pts in week 5 against +6.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.6% in week 5 against 13.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points. · −0.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders6.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.9 vs their -0.3 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+1.29× that swing) · 56 snaps
Ravens-6.9 ptsright on their number · +0.9 vs their -7.7 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 82%
Tendencies room →Commanders67.4%leaned — passed early · +12.3 vs their 55.1%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 43 early downs
Ravens45.3%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 47.1%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 55%
Tendencies room →Commanders33.3%inside their normal wobble · +7.3 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Ravens46.7%leaned — faked the run · +21.2 vs their 25.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+1.83× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 127%
Fourth Down room →Commanders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 51.7%.
Ravens—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 40.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 65%
Tendencies room →Commanders33.3%right on their number · −3.5 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±10.7 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Ravens11.9%inside their normal wobble · −10.8 vs their 22.7%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 31%
Tendencies room →Commanders13.3%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Ravens16.7%right on their number · +0.0 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.00× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
BAL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 46.7%, 21.2 points above their season mean of 25.4% and 1.8 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
20/26, 323 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
11.0 expected points added · +15.8% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
24/35, 269 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
9.5 expected points added · +9.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Derrick Henry banked 9.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 25.2 | +9.9 | 63% | 47% | 0% | — | 24 car, 132 yd, 2 TD |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Featured Receiver | 23.3 | +7.5 | 80% | 79% | 21% | 31% | 1 car, 0 yd · 6/7, 53 yd, 2 TD |
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.4 | +7.1 | 72% | 97% | 36% | 17% | 1 car, 2 yd · 9/9, 132 yd |
| Jayden DanielsQB · Starter QB | 21.0 | −3.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/35, 269 yd, 2 TD · 6 car, 22 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 18.9 | −1.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/26, 323 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 11 car, 40 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational Receiver | 15.6 | +6.3 | 50% | 60% | 16% | 23% | 3/4, 66 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.1 | +3.0 | 69% | 93% | 16% | 23% | 4/4, 71 yd |
| Austin EkelerRB · Committee Back | 10.8 | −3.9 | 75% | 69% | 15% | 0% | 9 car, 21 yd · 4/5, 47 yd |
| Zach ErtzTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.8 | +1.8 | 80% | 83% | 15% | 18% | 4/5, 68 yd |
| Noah BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 9.8 | −4.4 | 64% | 64% | 24% | 40% | 4/8, 58 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Featured Receiver | 6.7 | −2.1 | 39% | 43% | 18% | 13% | 4/6, 27 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −4.5 | 68% | 63% | 16% | 20% | 2/4, 27 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −2.3 | 47% | 40% | 12% | 19% | 1/3, 25 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.6 | 32% | 33% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Luke McCaffreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.6 | 37% | 40% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 1.4 | −0.8 | 38% | 53% | 4% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 0.9 | 0.0 | 37% | 43% | 0% | — | 2 car, 9 yd |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 32% | 13% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Deonte HartyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 36% | 31% | 0% | — | No touches. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:58) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 13. 0-M.Sainristil to BAL 49 for 38 yards (8-L.Jackson).
Q1 12:58 · Ravens · 2nd & 10 at WAS 20 · gained nothing · -7.12 EP · −19.4% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 94 yards from the BAL 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A screen, play action, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Commanders3
Ravens0Commanders3Ravens3Commanders3Ravens9Commanders3Ravens10Commanders9Ravens10Commanders10Ravens10Commanders10Ravens16Commanders10Ravens17Commanders13Ravens17Commanders13Ravens20Commanders13Ravens26Commanders13Ravens27Commanders19Ravens27Commanders20Ravens27Commanders20Ravens30Commanders23Ravens30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 24/35 | 269 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +9.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Austin Ekeler | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Jeremy McNichols |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 5 | 68 | 0 | 15% | +6.6 |
| Noah Brown | 4 | 8 | 58 | 0 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wagner | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Percy Butler | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 20/26 | 323 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +11.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_06_WAS_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 53 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 9 |
| 4.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| −0.7 |
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 7 | 53 | 2 | 21% | +7.7 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 15% | +1.6 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 18% | −2.2 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Mike Sainristil | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quan Martin | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Fowler | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jer'Zhan Newton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bellore | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Igbinoghene | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 24 | 132 | 5.5 | 2 | +1.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 9 | 9 | 132 | 0 | 36% | +9.5 |
| Rashod Bateman | 4 | 4 | 71 | 0 | 16% | +6.1 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 4 | 66 | 1 | 16% | −0.5 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 16% | −0.2 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 12% | +0.6 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Humphrey | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Roquan Smith | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Jones | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Wiggins | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Michael Pierce | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trenton Simpson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Jackson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
