For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2024 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 13, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium

Washington Commanders

23

Baltimore RavensWinner

30

BAL -6.5 ✓O 51.5 ✓

Baltimore Ravens 30–23. Biggest swing: Q1 12:58, WAS +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BAL ↑WAS ↓
Q1 · 12:58WAS 0 — BAL 0BAL ball · 2nd & 10BAL 77%

(12:58) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 13. 0-M.Sainristil to BAL 49 for 38 yards (8-L.Jackson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 12:58WAS +12% win prob(12:58) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 13. 0-M.Sainristil to BAL 49 for 38 yards (8-L.Jackson).
  2. Q2 · 0:57BAL +10% win prob(:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 1:02WAS +9% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 10 for -11 yards (6-D.Fowler).
  4. Q2 · 4:21BAL +7% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:14WAS Field goal

    (9:14) 3-A.Seibert 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 3 — BAL 0
  2. Q1 · 3:50BAL Field goal

    (3:50) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: WAS 3 — BAL 3
  3. Q2 · 7:59BAL Touchdown

    (7:59) 22-D.Henry right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 3 — BAL 10
  4. Q2 · 4:21WAS Touchdown

    (4:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — BAL 10
  5. Q2 · 0:57BAL Touchdown

    (:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 10 — BAL 17
  6. Q3 · 12:50WAS Field goal

    (12:50) 3-A.Seibert 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 13 — BAL 17
  7. Q3 · 8:22BAL Field goal

    (8:22) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: WAS 13 — BAL 20
  8. Q3 · 2:12BAL Touchdown

    (2:12) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-93-J.Allen was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 13 — BAL 27
  9. Q4 · 12:16WAS Touchdown

    (12:16) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 20 — BAL 27
  10. Q4 · 6:23BAL Field goal

    (6:23) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: WAS 20 — BAL 30
  11. Q4 · 2:52WAS Field goal

    (2:52) 3-A.Seibert 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 23 — BAL 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersRavens
Offensive plays5663
Total yards305486 (edge)
Yards per play5.47.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.100.17 (edge)
Success rate45%51% (edge)
Dropback rate75%48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.250.35 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.350.00 (edge)
Third downs4/126/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)510 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1725 (edge)
Sacks taken32 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

20/26, 323 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

11.0 expected points added · +15.8% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

24/35, 269 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.5 expected points added · +9.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

24 att, 132 yds, 2 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

11 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

9/9 for 132 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 9.5 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Rashod BatemanWR

4/4 for 71 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BALBAL 345462:13Interception
2WASBAL 497253:36Field goal +3
3BALBAL 3011475:26Field goal +3
4WASWAS 30501:25Punt
5BALBAL 204-102:18Punt
6WAS50792:09Punt
7BALBAL 710824:58Touchdown +7
8WASWAS 3010753:39Touchdown +7
9BALBAL 2212833:23Touchdown +7
10WASWAS 307360:53Missed field goal
11WASWAS 307332:15Field goal +3
12BALBAL 309574:26Field goal +3
13WASWAS 316251:29Punt
14BALBAL 69844:42Touchdown +7
15WASWAS 3014754:56Touchdown +7
16BALBAL 2210575:54Field goal +3
17WASWAS 309273:30Field goal +3
18BALBAL 308402:48End of game

11 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 84 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jayden Daniels24/352692039.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jayden Daniels6223.70-0.2
Austin Ekeler9212.30-3.0
Jeremy McNichols294.50-0.0
Terry McLaurin100.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zach Ertz4568015%6.6
Noah Brown4858024%-0.7
Terry McLaurin6753221%7.7
Austin Ekeler4547015%1.6
Olamide Zaccheaus4627018%-2.2
Dyami Brown111103%0.7
Luke McCaffrey11503%0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner660.000
Percy Butler520.000
Jeremy Chinn510.000
Mike Sainristil420.011
Benjamin St-Juste320.001
Quan Martin410.000
Dante Fowler402.000
Jer'Zhan Newton120.000
Nick Bellore200.000
Noah Igbinoghene200.001

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson20/2632311211.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry241325.521.8
Lamar Jackson11403.60-3.5
Zay Flowers122.00-0.4
Justice Hill122.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zay Flowers99132036%9.5
Rashod Bateman4471016%6.1
Mark Andrews3466116%-0.5
Isaiah Likely2427016%-0.2
Nelson Agholor1325012%0.6
Justice Hill11204%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Marlon Humphrey710.001
Roquan Smith520.000
Travis Jones311.000
Nate Wiggins310.002
Michael Pierce130.500
Brandon Stephens300.001
Kyle Hamilton210.000
Trenton Simpson210.000
Eddie Jackson120.000
Nnamdi Madubuike020.500

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -6.5
Closing total
51.5
WAS moneyline
+230
BAL moneyline
-285

Ravens closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 53 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
75°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
WAS 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs John Harbaugh