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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Ravens175 of 186 plays carry both curves
(6:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 15-J.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL -9. Touchback.
Swing −16.9 for BuccaneersExpected points −6.28 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 16 points higher than the market did.play 53
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 6:17BAL +17% win prob(6:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 15-J.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL -9. Touchback.
2nd · 5:31TB +12% win prob(5:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 7-R.Bateman to TB 8 for 59 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
2nd · 4:30TB +9% win prob(4:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 43-J.Hill for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:02TB +7% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 15-J.McMillan to BAL 49 for 8 yards (44-M.Humphrey, 0-R.Smith). PENALTY on BAL-92-N.Madubuike, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 49.
1st · 11:10TB +7% win prob(11:10) 15-J.McMillan left end pushed ob at BAL 25 for 11 yards (2-N.Wiggins, 0-R.Smith).
1st · 10:34TB +7% win prob(10:34) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justice Hill's 18-yard touchdown catch with 4:30 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Ravens ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.09 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.47Ravens: +0.47 expected points added per play
+0.12Buccaneers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+1.09Ravens: +1.09 expected points added per play
+0.15Buccaneers: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Ravens: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.07Buccaneers: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 54 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 79 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 6, Buccaneers 6.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.47 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's play-action rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 8.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 16.7% in week 2.
2.2 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 4.0-swing turn from week 6.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
BAL's blitz rate sent, 3.7%, is past their previous low of 11.9% in week 6 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
54 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.2 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.74× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Buccaneers7.4%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
NoteTB's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 19.3 points below their season mean of 19.3% and 2.2 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive
65Patrick MekariG · Every snap100%59 snaps
77Daniel FaaleleT · Every snap100%59 snaps
70Roger RosengartenT · Every snap100%59 snaps
64Tyler LinderbaumC · Every snap100%59 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%59 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Full-time95%56 snaps
7Rashod BatemanWR · Heavy rotation76%45 snaps
4Zay FlowersWR · Heavy rotation71%42 snaps
80Isaiah LikelyTE · Heavy rotation59%35 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation58%34 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Heavy rotation54%32 snaps
15Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational47%28 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Rotational46%27 snaps
88Charlie KolarTE · Rotational36%21 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Rotational36%21 snaps
16Tylan WallaceWR · Situational17%10 snaps
17Josh JohnsonQB · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Nick SamacCBroderick WashingtonDEBeau BradeFSMalik HarrisonOLBAdisa IsaacOLBRasheen AliRB
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass−16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 15-J.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL -9. Touchback.
Q2 6:17 · Buccaneers · 2nd & goal at BAL 3 · gained nothing · -6.28 EP · −15.9% win probability
173 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 181. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 92 yards from the BAL 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.17
Success rate
50%
Yards
991
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR73+0.1368%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16+1.3356%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.0160%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.3418%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10+0.0530%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Ravens0Buccaneers6
Ravens0Buccaneers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Ravens 25
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Buccaneers 39
Ravens0Buccaneers10
Field goal12 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Ravens 5
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Ravens6Buccaneers10
Ravens7Buccaneers10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 44 to the Buccaneers 9
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.9 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Ravens 3
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
Ravens13Buccaneers10
Ravens14Buccaneers10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Buccaneers 8
Intercepted6 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 47
Ravens17Buccaneers10
Field goal16 plays, from the Ravens 40 to the Buccaneers 8
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Ravens20Buccaneers10
Field goal7 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Buccaneers 29
No good8 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Ravens 37
Ravens26Buccaneers10
Ravens27Buccaneers10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Buccaneers 42
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Ravens 45
Ravens33Buccaneers10
Ravens34Buccaneers10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 8 to the Buccaneers 4
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 34
The period ended3 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 31
4th quarter60 plays
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 42
Ravens34Buccaneers16
Ravens34Buccaneers18
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 11
Ravens40Buccaneers18
Ravens41Buccaneers18
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Buccaneers 13
Ravens41Buccaneers24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Ravens 1
Ravens41Buccaneers30
Ravens41Buccaneers31
Touchdown10 plays
The period ended8 plays
The period ended11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Ravens 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
