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2024 Week 7 · Mon, Oct 21, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

41

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

31

BAL -4.5 ✓O 51 ✓

Baltimore Ravens 41–31. Biggest swing: Q2 6:17, BAL +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TB ↑BAL ↓
Q2 · 6:17BAL 7 — TB 10TB ball · 2nd & 3TB 60%

(6:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 15-J.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL -9. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 6:17BAL +17% win prob(6:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 15-J.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL -9. Touchback.
  2. Q2 · 5:31TB +12% win prob(5:31) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 7-R.Bateman to TB 8 for 59 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
  3. Q2 · 4:30TB +9% win prob(4:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 43-J.Hill for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q1 · 4:02TB +7% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 15-J.McMillan to BAL 49 for 8 yards (44-M.Humphrey, 0-R.Smith). PENALTY on BAL-92-N.Madubuike, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 49.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:34TB Touchdown

    (10:34) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 0 — TB 7
  2. Q1 · 0:05TB Field goal

    (:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: BAL 0 — TB 10
  3. Q2 · 12:33BAL Touchdown

    (12:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 7 — TB 10
  4. Q2 · 4:30BAL Touchdown

    (4:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 43-J.Hill for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 14 — TB 10
  5. Q2 · 0:07BAL Field goal

    (:07) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 17 — TB 10
  6. Q3 · 12:25BAL Field goal

    (12:25) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 20 — TB 10
  7. Q3 · 7:32BAL Touchdown

    (7:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 7-R.Bateman for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 27 — TB 10
  8. Q3 · 2:57BAL Touchdown

    (2:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 34 — TB 10
  9. Q4 · 11:30TB Touchdown

    (11:30) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: BAL 34 — TB 18
  10. Q4 · 6:38BAL Touchdown

    (6:38) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 22-D.Henry for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 41 — TB 18
  11. Q4 · 3:49TB Touchdown

    (3:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: BAL 41 — TB 24
  12. Q4 · 2:06TB Touchdown

    (2:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 41 — TB 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensBuccaneers
Offensive plays5479
Total yards508 (edge)484
Yards per play9.4 (edge)6.1
Expected points added / play0.47 (edge)0.12
Success rate52% (edge)49%
Dropback rate50%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)1.09 (edge)0.15
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.140.07 (edge)
Third downs3/811/18 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)11 (edge)9
First downs gained on snaps1928 (edge)
Sacks taken2 (edge)3
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.47 expected points added per play vs 0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

31/45, 370 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

12.2 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

17/22, 281 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

25.1 expected points added · +15.4% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

15 att, 169 yds, 0 TD

6.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

9 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Rashod BatemanWR

4/4 for 121 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 11.9 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Cade OttonTE

8/10 for 100 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 3010704:33Touchdown +7
2BALBAL 35884:22Punt
3TBTB 2011706:03Field goal +3
4BALBAL 308702:33Touchdown +7
5TBTB 3012626:19Interception
6BALBAL 205901:47Touchdown +7
7TBTB 305171:25Interception
8BALBAL 4010652:54Field goal +3
9TBTB 30200:04End of half
10BALBAL 426322:40Field goal +3
11TBTB 308333:58Missed field goal
12BALBAL 455600:57Touchdown +7
13TBTB 306212:27Punt
14BALBAL 86922:05Touchdown +7
15TBTB 30632:00Punt
16BALBAL 305212:21Defensive touchdown
17TBBAL 306322:08Touchdown +8
18BALBAL 3010704:52Touchdown +7
19TBTB 3011752:46Touchdown +6
20TBTB 489571:48Touchdown +7
21BALTB 48500:24Punt
22TBTB 259441:34End of game

12 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 92 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson17/2228150225.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry1516911.306.0
Lamar Jackson9525.80-3.8
Zay Flowers11919.001.3
Justice Hill540.80-3.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Rashod Bateman44121119%11.9
Justice Hill3344114%4.2
Mark Andrews4441219%8.0
Nelson Agholor1220010%0.5
Isaiah Likely2417019%-0.4
Charlie Kolar111405%0.9
Derrick Henry111315%3.2
Zay Flowers111105%0.8
Patrick Ricard01005%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Roquan Smith1070.000
Kyle Hamilton740.001
Trenton Simpson530.000
Eddie Jackson520.000
Ar'Darius Washington421.000
Odafe Oweh221.000
Brent Urban310.000
Kyle Van Noy121.000
Marcus Williams200.000
Brandon Stephens110.000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield31/4537032312.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rachaad White10404.00-0.5
Sean Tucker5295.80-0.2
Bucky Irving9232.610.1
Baker Mayfield5224.40-4.2
Jalen McMillan11111.002.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Cade Otton810100022%6.4
Rachaad White6671213%8.3
Chris Godwin7965020%1.7
Bucky Irving335407%3.1
Mike Evans132517%1.0
Trey Palmer131607%0.0
Jalen McMillan3815018%-6.3
Sterling Shepard111502%2.2
Sean Tucker12904%0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Antoine Winfield721.000
K.J. Britt140.000
Zyon McCollum410.000
Calijah Kancey320.000
Tyrek Funderburk410.000
Joe Tryon220.000
YaYa Diaby401.000
Vita Vea120.000
Lavonte David200.001
Anthony Nelson110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -4.5
Closing total
51
BAL moneyline
-225
TB moneyline
+185

Ravens closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 51; the game landed 72 — over by 21.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
80°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
BAL 8 days · TB 8 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Todd Bowles