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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2024 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 7
It turned at Q1 11:27, 3rd and 9, on Dante Fowler — 18.1 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Washington Commanders 40–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:27, Commanders +18.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:27 · 3rd and 9
Dante Fowler
Commanders
(11:27) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Fowler at WAS 33. 6-D.Fowler for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.46 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.87 expected points per dropback.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Commanders won this one — +0.27 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.47 expected points per snap.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Commanders at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(11:27) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Fowler at WAS 33. 6-D.Fowler for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dante Fowler's 67-yard touchdown with 11:27 left in the 1st put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Dante Fowler67-yd defense TD67-yard touchdownthe defense scored itLead never changed again+70–79 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categoryCommanders
Commanders ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.87 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 42 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Commanders’s 61 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 1, Commanders 6.
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.47.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's pass rate over expected, −9.7 pts, is past their previous low of −5.5 pts in week 2 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
WAS's blitz rate sent, 19.0%, is past their previous low of 23.8% in week 3 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.7 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
WAS's early-down pass rate, 39.2%, is past their previous low of 43.5% in week 5 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
CAR's early-down pass rate, 41.9%, is past their previous low of 48.4% in week 2 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
31 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
CAR's play-action rate, 33.3%, is past their previous high of 27.9% in week 4 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers-8.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −6.4 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 42 snaps
Commanders-9.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.4 vs their -0.3 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−1.75× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 29% to 82%
Tendencies room →Panthers41.9%leaned — ran early · −14.8 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.51× that swing) · 31 early downs
Commanders39.2%leaned — ran early · −15.9 vs their 55.1%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−1.56× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 50%
Tendencies room →Panthers33.3%leaned — faked the run · +11.3 vs their 22.0%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.36× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Commanders28.6%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 127%
Fourth Down room →Panthers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.9%.
Commanders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 51.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 10% to 64%
Tendencies room →Panthers25.0%inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Commanders19.0%leaned — sat back · −17.8 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±10.7 week to week (−1.67× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 30%
Tendencies room →Panthers7.1%inside their normal wobble · −2.9 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Commanders9.5%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
WAS's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.7 pts, 9.4 points below their season mean of -0.3 pts and 1.8 times their own 5.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
18/23, 205 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
11.8 expected points added · +15.2% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
11/16, 93 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-16.5 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
6/6 for 61 yds, 0 TD
35% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Brian Robinson banked 5.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus MariotaQB · Starter QB | 19.6 | −0.1 | 86% | — | 0% | — | 18/23, 205 yd, 2 TD · 11 car, 34 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Featured Receiver | 15.8 | +3.5 | 71% | 68% | 24% | 32% | 6/6, 98 yd |
| Zach ErtzTE · Featured Receiver | 14.0 | +3.9 | 58% | 68% | 20% | 17% | 4/5, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| Brian RobinsonRB | 13.1 | +5.4 | 38% | 25% | 0% | — | 12 car, 71 yd, 1 TD |
| Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Alpha Receiver | 12.1 | +2.2 | 74% | 81% | 35% | 49% | 6/6, 61 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.2 | +1.4 | 84% | 76% | 0% | — | 17 car, 52 yd, 1 TD |
| Ben SinnottTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | +2.9 | 45% | 29% | 8% | 0% | 2/2, 6 yd, 1 TD |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Featured Receiver | 6.5 | −3.7 | 42% | 64% | 24% | 18% | 4/6, 25 yd |
| Jayden DanielsQB | 5.2 | −1.0 | 14% | — | 0% | — | 2/2, 6 yd · 3 car, 50 yd |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 4.2 | +0.8 | 25% | 14% | 0% | — | 7 car, 42 yd |
| Austin EkelerRB | 4.0 | −2.6 | 41% | 54% | 8% | 0% | 4 car, 17 yd · 2/2, 3 yd |
| Miles SandersRB · Receiving Back | 3.8 | −1.1 | 26% | 33% | 12% | 0% | 3 car, 34 yd · 1/2, -6 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −2.8 | 30% | 36% | 12% | 29% | 1/3, 23 yd |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −3.4 | 84% | 90% | 18% | 3% | 1 car, 6 yd · 2/3, 3 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −2.5 | 70% | 76% | 18% | 63% | 1/3, 17 yd |
| Noah BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +0.4 | 61% | 61% | 4% | 6% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −0.5 | 49% | 29% | 12% | 0% | 2/2, 4 yd |
| Jalen CokerWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.5 | 51% | 57% | 6% | 8% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Andy DaltonQB · Starter QB | 0.0 | −6.2 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 11/16, 93 yd, 2 INT · 2 car, 3 yd |
| Raheem BlackshearRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| David MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 33% | 29% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Colson YankoffTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 42% | 32% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Bryce YoungQB | -0.2 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:27) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Fowler at WAS 33. 6-D.Fowler for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 11:27 · Panthers · 3rd & 9 at WAS 25 · gained nothing · -10.14 EP · −26.4% win probability
144 snaps placed · 6 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 150 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 144 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 92 yards from the WAS 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
150 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
150 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Panthers0
Commanders6Panthers0Commanders7Panthers0Commanders10Panthers0Commanders16Panthers0Commanders17Panthers0Commanders20Panthers0Commanders26Panthers0Commanders27Panthers0Commanders33Panthers0Commanders34Panthers0Commanders37Panthers6Commanders37Panthers7Commanders37Panthers7Commanders40Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 11/16 | 93 | 0 | 2 | 2 | −16.5 |
| Bryce Young | 2/2 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 17 | 52 | 3.1 | 1 | −3.9 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 6 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 35% | +2.4 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Woods | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chau Smith-Wade | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandler Wooten |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 18/23 | 205 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +11.8 |
| Jayden Daniels | 2/2 | 6 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_07_CAR_WAS
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Commanders closed -10 and covered, winning by 33.
Total closed 51; the game landed 47 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
| Xavier Legette | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | +0.0 |
| 18% |
| −4.7 |
| Jalen Coker | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 6% | +0.5 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12% | +0.2 |
| Xavier Legette | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 18% | −1.6 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 2 | -6 | 0 | 12% | −11.6 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Trevin Wallace | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaycee Horn | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Jackson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Jackson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| LaBryan Ray | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Johnson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −1.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 12 | 71 | 5.9 | 1 | +4.2 |
| Jayden Daniels | 3 | 50 | 16.7 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Marcus Mariota | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 6 | 98 | 0 | 24% | +7.6 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 5 | 40 | 1 | 20% | +2.6 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 24% | +0.8 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 12% | −0.9 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4% | +2.5 |
| Ben Sinnott | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 8% | +1.0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8% | −1.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Igbinoghene | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Sainristil | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Frankie Luvu | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wagner | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Percy Butler | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sheldon Day | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Fowler | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Clelin Ferrell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
