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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:18 AM ET · 16 to play
Carolina Panthers 7 at Washington Commanders 40. Final.
Commanders -10 ✓U 51 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 7
Washington Commanders 40, Panthers 7 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 11:27, 3rd and 9, on Dante Fowler — 18.1 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:27 · 3rd and 9
Dante Fowler
Commanders
(11:27) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Fowler at WAS 33. 6-D.Fowler for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Commanders closed -10 and covered, winning by 33.
Washington Commanders 40–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:27, Commanders +18.1% win probability on one snap.
18.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Diontae JohnsonPanthersQ1 12:37(12:37) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 5-Di.Johnson to WAS 26 for 17 yards (0-M.Sainristil). Penalty on WAS-99-C.Ferrell, Defensive Offside, declined.
4.9pts
Jayden DanielsCommandersQ1 9:38(9:38) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels right end to CAR 44 for 46 yards (45-M.Haynes; 32-L.Johnson).
4.8pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.46 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.87 expected points per dropback.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Commanders won this one — +0.27 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.47 expected points per snap.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Commanders at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Panthers146 of 150 plays carry both curves
(11:27) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Fowler at WAS 33. 6-D.Fowler for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +18.1 for CommandersExpected points +10.14 for CommandersThe model had Panthers 24 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:27CAR +18% win prob(11:27) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Fowler at WAS 33. 6-D.Fowler for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:37WAS +5% win prob(12:37) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 5-Di.Johnson to WAS 26 for 17 yards (0-M.Sainristil). Penalty on WAS-99-C.Ferrell, Defensive Offside, declined.
1st · 9:38WAS +5% win prob(9:38) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels right end to CAR 44 for 46 yards (45-M.Haynes; 32-L.Johnson).
1st · 2:37CAR +3% win prob(2:37) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right intended for 5-Di.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Forbes at WAS 45. 13-E.Forbes to CAR 35 for 20 yards (68-D.Lewis). Penalty on CAR-68-D.Lewis, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined. PENALTY on WAS-99-C.Ferrell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 36.
1st · 9:46WAS +2% win prob(9:46) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to WAS 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.
1st · 13:16WAS +2% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dante Fowler's 67-yard touchdown with 11:27 left in the 1st put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
4th4:58Austin Seibert·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+37–40
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryCommanders
Panthers0–9Commanders
181Total yards424
4.3Yards per play7.0
43%Success rate56%
30%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
2Explosive plays6
10First downs22
2Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Commanders ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.87 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.47Panthers: −0.47 expected points added per play
+0.27Commanders: +0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.87Panthers: −0.87 expected points added per play
+0.46Commanders: +0.46 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Panthers: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.10Commanders: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 42 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Commanders’s 61 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 1, Commanders 6.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.47.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's play-action rate, 33.3%, is past their previous high of 27.9% in week 4 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · −2.9 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Commanders9.5%
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
NoteWAS's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.7 pts, 9.4 points below their season mean of -0.3 pts and 1.8 times their own 5.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Dalton pass−26% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:27) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Fowler at WAS 33. 6-D.Fowler for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 11:27 · Panthers · 3rd & 9 at WAS 25 · gained nothing · -10.14 EP · −26.4% win probability
144 snaps placed · 6 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 150 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 144 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 92 yards from the WAS 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
150 of 150 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
150
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
52%
Yards
601
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.3763%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.8257%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.2319%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.3820%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
150 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
150 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Panthers0Commanders6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 14 to the Commanders 25
Panthers0Commanders7
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Panthers 41
Panthers0Commanders10
Field goal12 plays, from the Commanders 10 to the Panthers 5
Intercepted3 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 35
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Panthers 42
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Panthers 15 to the Panthers 16
Panthers0Commanders16
Panthers0Commanders17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Panthers 8
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Panthers 40
Panthers0Commanders20
Field goal7 plays, from the Panthers 38 to the Panthers 21
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Panthers 48
Panthers0Commanders26
Panthers0Commanders27
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Panthers 12
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Panthers0Commanders33
Panthers0Commanders34
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Panthers 3
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Panthers 30
Panthers0Commanders37
Field goal12 plays, from the Commanders 32 to the Panthers 13
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 45
4th quarter31 plays
Panthers6Commanders37
Panthers7Commanders37
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 47 to the Commanders 4
Panthers7Commanders40
Field goal13 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Panthers 7
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 35
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Commanders 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
