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2024 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2024 · FedExField

Carolina Panthers

7

Washington CommandersWinner

40

WAS -10 ✓U 51 ✓

Washington Commanders 40–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:27, CAR +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3WAS ↑CAR ↓
Q1 · 11:27CAR 0 — WAS 6CAR ball · 3rd & 9WAS 73%

(11:27) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Fowler at WAS 33. 6-D.Fowler for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 11:27CAR +18% win prob(11:27) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Fowler at WAS 33. 6-D.Fowler for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 12:37WAS +5% win prob(12:37) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 5-Di.Johnson to WAS 26 for 17 yards (0-M.Sainristil). Penalty on WAS-99-C.Ferrell, Defensive Offside, declined.
  3. Q1 · 9:38WAS +5% win prob(9:38) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels right end to CAR 44 for 46 yards (45-M.Haynes; 32-L.Johnson).
  4. Q1 · 2:37CAR +3% win prob(2:37) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right intended for 5-Di.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Forbes at WAS 45. 13-E.Forbes to CAR 35 for 20 yards (68-D.Lewis). Penalty on CAR-68-D.Lewis, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined. PENALTY on WAS-99-C.Ferrell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 36.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:27WAS Touchdown

    (11:27) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 6-M.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Fowler at WAS 33. 6-D.Fowler for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — WAS 7
  2. Q1 · 3:21WAS Field goal

    (3:21) 3-A.Seibert 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — WAS 10
  3. Q2 · 11:40WAS Touchdown

    (11:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — WAS 17
  4. Q2 · 5:43WAS Field goal

    (5:43) 3-A.Seibert 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — WAS 20
  5. Q2 · 0:16WAS Touchdown

    (:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — WAS 27
  6. Q3 · 8:57WAS Touchdown

    (8:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short right to 82-B.Sinnott for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — WAS 34
  7. Q3 · 1:36WAS Field goal

    (1:36) 3-A.Seibert 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — WAS 37
  8. Q4 · 11:43CAR Touchdown

    (11:43) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — WAS 37
  9. Q4 · 4:58WAS Field goal

    (4:58) 3-A.Seibert 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — WAS 40

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersCommanders
Offensive plays4261
Total yards181424 (edge)
Yards per play4.37.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.470.27 (edge)
Success rate43%56% (edge)
Dropback rate50%46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.870.46 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.080.10 (edge)
Third downs3/105/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)26 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1022 (edge)
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.47.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Marcus MariotaQB

18/23, 205 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

11.8 expected points added · +15.2% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Andy DaltonQB

11/16, 93 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-16.5 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

12 att, 71 yds, 1 TD

4.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

17 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

-3.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

6/6 for 98 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Ja'Tavion SandersTE

6/6 for 61 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CARCAR 149613:46Defensive touchdown
2CARCAR 35561:36Punt
3WASWAS 1011906:20Field goal +3
4CARCAR 253100:51Interception
5WASCAR 46401:53Punt
6CARCAR 11412:12Punt
7WASWAS 415301:47Touchdown +7
8CARCAR 218174:03Turnover on downs
9WASCAR 385121:53Field goal +3
10CARCAR 326163:17Punt
11WASWAS 89822:12Touchdown +7
12CARCAR 30200:10End of half
13WASWAS 4112646:07Touchdown +7
14CARCAR 24561:44Punt
15WASWAS 3210705:36Field goal +3
16CARCAR 3011654:55Touchdown +7
17WASWAS 3013596:43Field goal +3
18CARCAR 305-12:21Punt
19WASWAS 244172:34End of game

8 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 90 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Andy Dalton11/1693022-16.5
Bryce Young2/2-4000-1.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard17523.11-3.9
Miles Sanders33411.302.2
Xavier Legette166.000.1
Andy Dalton231.500.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ja'Tavion Sanders6661035%2.4
Diontae Johnson1317018%-4.7
Jalen Coker111006%0.5
Ian Thomas224012%0.2
Xavier Legette233018%-1.6
Miles Sanders12-6012%-11.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Xavier Woods430.000
Chau Smith-Wade430.000
Chandler Wooten420.000
Trevin Wallace330.000
Nick Scott320.000
Jaycee Horn410.001
Michael Jackson220.000
Dane Jackson220.000
LaBryan Ray130.000
D.J. Johnson130.000

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Marcus Mariota18/2320520111.8
Jayden Daniels2/26000-1.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Brian Robinson12715.914.2
Jayden Daniels35016.702.0
Jeremy McNichols7426.00-0.6
Marcus Mariota11343.100.7
Austin Ekeler4174.30-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Terry McLaurin6698024%7.6
Zach Ertz4540120%2.6
Olamide Zaccheaus4625024%0.8
Dyami Brown1323012%-0.9
Noah Brown111604%2.5
Ben Sinnott22618%1.0
Austin Ekeler22308%-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Noah Igbinoghene600.000
Jeremy Chinn240.000
Mike Sainristil410.001
Frankie Luvu221.000
Bobby Wagner130.000
Daron Payne210.000
Percy Butler120.000
Sheldon Day200.000
Dante Fowler201.011
Clelin Ferrell110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
WAS -10
Closing total
51
CAR moneyline
+400
WAS moneyline
-535

Commanders closed -10 and covered, winning by 33.

Total closed 51; the game landed 47 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
76°F, wind 2 mph
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
CAR 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches
Dave Canales vs Dan Quinn