2024 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 20, 2024 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Cleveland Browns

CIN -5.5 ✓U 42 ✓Bengals closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Cincinnati Bengals 21–14. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, CLE +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 15:00CIN 6 — CLE 0CIN ballCIN 72%

7-D.Hopkins kicks 65 yards from CLE 35 to CIN 0. 15-C.Jones for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 15:00CLE +16% win prob7-D.Hopkins kicks 65 yards from CLE 35 to CIN 0. 15-C.Jones for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:59CLE +9% win prob(:59) 59-W.Reid and 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 10:53CIN +9% win prob(10:53) 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete short right to 24-N.Chubb [24-V.Bell].
Q1 · 14:37CLE +9% win prob(14:37) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 19-C.Tillman to CLE 31 for 7 yards (57-G.Pratt).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 15:00CIN Touchdown
7-D.Hopkins kicks 65 yards from CLE 35 to CIN 0. 15-C.Jones for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 7 — CLE 0
Q2 · 0:59CLE Touchdown
(:59) 59-W.Reid and 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CIN 7 — CLE 6
Q3 · 8:00CIN Touchdown
(8:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 14 — CLE 6
Q3 · 1:35CIN Touchdown
(1:35) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 21 — CLE 6
Q4 · 1:32CLE Touchdown
(1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left to 85-D.Njoku for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CIN 21 — CLE 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Browns
Offensive plays	50	77
Total yards	226	340 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	-0.19	-0.15 (edge)
Success rate	30%	38% (edge)
Dropback rate	56%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06 (edge)	-0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.36	0.00 (edge)
Third downs	2/12	8/19 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	11	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Browns outgained Bengals 340–226 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

15/25, 181 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-1.8 expected points added · -1.1% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Deshaun WatsonQB

15/17, 128 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

0.3 expected points added · +15.9% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Chase BrownRB

15 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-4.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

11 att, 22 yds, 1 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

4/8 for 82 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Cedric TillmanWR

8/12 for 81 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	—	2	0	0:12	Defensive touchdown +7
2	CLE	CLE 24	5	9	1:39	Punt
3	CIN	CIN 21	4	6	1:39	Punt
4	CLE	CLE 37	10	32	5:02	Missed field goal
5	CIN	CIN 39	6	29	2:46	Turnover on downs
6	CLE	CLE 42	4	0	2:00	Punt
7	CIN	CIN 10	6	40	2:26	Punt
8	CLE	CLE 9	5	22	2:23	Punt
9	CIN	CIN 44	4	2	0:52	Punt
10	CLE	CLE 9	5	20	3:17	Punt
11	CIN	CIN 29	5	7	2:19	Punt
12	CLE	CLE 22	13	61	4:29	Touchdown +6
13	CIN	CIN 30	5	2	0:26	Punt
14	CLE	CLE 20	1	0	0:30	End of half
15	CLE	CLE 8	9	62	4:11	Turnover on downs
16	CIN	CIN 35	6	60	2:53	Touchdown +7
17	CLE	CLE 30	3	9	1:12	Interception
18	CIN	CLE 43	4	3	1:25	Punt
19	CLE	CLE 11	6	14	1:54	Punt
20	CIN	50	5	50	1:55	Touchdown +7
21	CLE	CLE 30	5	4	1:30	Punt
22	CIN	CIN 17	7	13	3:07	Punt
23	CLE	CLE 19	9	37	3:19	Punt
24	CIN	CIN 3	6	16	3:44	Punt
25	CLE	CIN 48	3	3	0:47	Interception
26	CIN	CLE 30	4	-2	0:20	Missed field goal
27	CLE	CLE 40	13	67	2:16	Touchdown +8
28	CIN	CLE 43	4	0	1:27	End of game

5 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 67 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	15/25	181	2	0	3	-1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chase Brown	15	44	2.9	-4.3
Ja'Marr Chase	1	11	11.0	0.7
Zack Moss	6	7	1.2	-4.3
Joe Burrow	3	-3	-1.0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	4	8	82	1	33%	3.2
Ja'Marr Chase	5	6	55	1	25%	4.2
Zack Moss	3	3	33	0	13%	2.6
Chase Brown	2	2	9	0	8%	0.2
Mike Gesicki	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.3
Drew Sample	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.0
Andrei Iosivas	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.5
Erick All	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9
Tanner Hudson	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Germaine Pratt	8	3	0.0	0	0
Logan Wilson	3	4	0.0	0	0
Cam Taylor-Britt	4	3	0.0	0	0
Geno Stone	2	4	0.0	1	1
Akeem Davis-Gaither	1	3	0.0	0	0
Joseph Ossai	3	1	0.0	0	0
D.J. Turner	3	1	0.0	0	1
Vonn Bell	1	3	0.0	0	1
Trey Hendrickson	2	1	2.0	0	1
Sam Hubbard	2	0	1.0	1	1

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	15/17	128	0	0	2	0.3
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	11/24	82	0	2	1	-19.3
Jameis Winston	5/11	67	1	0	1	7.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	3	44	14.7	0	4.1
Nick Chubb	11	22	2.0	1	-2.2
Pierre Strong	3	6	2.0	0	-1.0
D'Onta Foreman	2	5	2.5	0	-0.2
Deshaun Watson	2	0	0.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cedric Tillman	8	12	81	0	25%	1.4
David Njoku	10	14	76	1	29%	3.3
Jordan Akins	4	4	42	0	8%	2.5
Elijah Moore	6	6	41	0	13%	1.2
Jerry Jeudy	1	6	18	0	13%	-5.1
Nick Chubb	1	3	10	0	6%	-3.4
Pierre Strong	1	3	9	0	6%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	3	4	0.0	0
Martin Emerson	4	1	0.0	2
Grant Delpit	4	0	0.0	0
Isaiah McGuire	0	4	0.5	0
Mohamoud Diabate	1	3	0.0	0
Jordan Hicks	2	2	0.0	0
Denzel Ward	2	0	0.0	2
Juan Thornhill	1	1	0.0	0
Shelby Harris	1	1	1.0	0
Za'Darius Smith	1	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -5.5
Closing total: 42
CIN moneyline: -230
CLE moneyline: +190

Bengals closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 42; the game landed 35 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 62°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: CIN 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Kevin Stefanski

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.