For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:44 AM ET · 16 to play
Cincinnati Bengals 21 at Cleveland Browns 14. Final.
Bengals -5.5 ✓U 42 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 7
Cincinnati Bengals 21, Browns 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 15:00 — 16.0 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 15:00
Unnamed on the sheet
Bengals
7-D.Hopkins kicks 65 yards from CLE 35 to CIN 0. 15-C.Jones for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.0
Bengals closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Cincinnati Bengals 21–14. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, Bengals +16.0% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Nick ChubbBrownsQ2 0:59(:59) 59-W.Reid and 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
9.5pts
Dorian Thompson-RobinsonBengalsQ3 10:53(10:53) 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete short right to 24-N.Chubb [24-V.Bell].
9.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Bengals at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 19 on third down, against Bengals at 2 of 12 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Browns owned this one and still lost it — +0.00 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.36 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Bengals171 of 185 plays carry both curves
Q1 · 15:00Bengals 6 — Browns 0CIN ballCIN 72%
Bengals 72%Browns 28%
7-D.Hopkins kicks 65 yards from CLE 35 to CIN 0. 15-C.Jones for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −16.0 for BrownsExpected points −6.23 for BrownsThe model had Browns 29 points higher than the market did.play 2
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 15:00CLE +16% win prob7-D.Hopkins kicks 65 yards from CLE 35 to CIN 0. 15-C.Jones for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:59CLE +9% win prob(:59) 59-W.Reid and 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:53CIN +9% win prob(10:53) 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete short right to 24-N.Chubb [24-V.Bell].
1st · 14:37CLE +9% win prob(14:37) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 19-C.Tillman to CLE 31 for 7 yards (57-G.Pratt).
3rd · 13:35CLE +7% win prob(13:35) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson right end to CIN 43 for 34 yards (20-D.Turner).
3rd · 8:00CLE +7% win prob(8:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:22
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Charlie Jones's 100-yard return touchdown with 15:00 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st15:00Charlie Jones·100-yd return TD100-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kickLead never changed again+77–0
2nd0:59Nick Chubb·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+67–6
3rd8:00Ja'Marr Chase·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+714–6
3rd1:35Tee Higgins·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+721–6
Browns ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Bengals: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.15Browns: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Bengals: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.21Browns: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.36Bengals: −0.36 expected points added per play
+0.00Browns: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 50 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Browns’s 77 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 3, Browns 2.
NoteBrowns outgained Bengals 340-226 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's early-down pass rate, 74.5%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 7 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 6.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
CIN's pass rate over expected turned over: +10.5 pts in week 6 against −4.8 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
CLE's pass rate over expected turned over: −6.2 pts in week 6 against +4.1 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
76 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points.
CLE's blitz rate sent turned over: 57.7% in week 6 against 17.9% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.6 points.
CIN's play-action rate turned over: 32.4% in week 6 against 14.3% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · +4.0 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Browns21.4%
right on their number · +2.9 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteCIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -4.8 pts, 12.7 points below their season mean of 7.9 pts and 2.0 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Hopkins kicks+24% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
7-D.Hopkins kicks 65 yards from CLE 35 to CIN 0. 15-C.Jones for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 15:00 · Bengals · Kickoff at CLE 35 · gained nothing · +6.23 EP · +24.1% win probability
169 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 180. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 78 yards from the CLE 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
34%
Yards
561
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58-0.1072%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.0866%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.5753%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.0991%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Bengals6Browns0
Bengals7Browns0
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 33
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Bengals 27
No good10 plays, from the Browns 37 to the Bengals 30
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Bengals 39 to the Browns 37
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 42 to the Browns 48
The period ended4 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Bengals 42
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 45 to midfield
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 9 to the Browns 21
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 44 to the Bengals 46
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 9 to the Browns 24
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Bengals 48
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne inside linebacker, one quarterback, one back and two tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, four linebackers and one backIn the boxNine defenders
Bengals7Browns6
Touchdown19 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Bengals 1
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 47
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Browns 8 to the Bengals 35
Bengals13Browns6
Bengals14Browns6
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Browns 18
Intercepted4 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 34
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 43 to the Browns 40
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 11 to the Browns 25
Bengals20Browns6
Bengals21Browns6
Touchdown5 plays, from midfield to the Browns 25
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 34
4th quarter54 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 17 to the Bengals 30
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 19 to the Bengals 44
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 3 to the Bengals 19
Intercepted3 plays, from the Bengals 48 to the Bengals 45
The period ended7 plays
Bengals21Browns12
Bengals21Browns14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Bengals 6
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -5.5
Closing total
42
Bengals moneyline
-230
Browns moneyline
+190
Bengals closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 42; the game landed 35 — under by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 63°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Bengals 7 days · Browns 7 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Kevin Stefanski
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
CLE +7% win prob
(1:22) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson in at QB. (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete deep right to 19-C.Tillman. PENALTY on CIN-20-D.Turner, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at CIN 23 - No Play.
3rd · 6:50CIN +7% win prob(6:50) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short middle intended for 19-C.Tillman INTERCEPTED by 94-S.Hubbard [91-T.Hendrickson] at CLE 43. 94-S.Hubbard to CLE 43 for no gain (88-J.Akins).
